Curious

[Huck]

Yesterday, between checking updates on the National I was perusing vintage cards on ebay. I noticed that the majority of cards had an asking price well north of the price listed in the SMR. I was not that surprised that prices were higher than book value (even commons). What did surprise me were that some cards (usually commons) were half of SMR. I almost pulled the trigger on a bunch of half price graded (PSA 5) cards! Have you saw a card and thought "this is a deal" and purchased a card even though you don't collect that particular set? It made me wonder if the seller was discounting the commons to get me on the hook, and once hooked I would have to come back and buy the boat (stars)!

[1952boyntoncollector]

Originally Posted by biohazard

Yesterday, between checking updates on the National I was perusing vintage cards on ebay. I noticed that the majority of cards had an asking price well north of the price listed in the SMR. I was not that surprised that prices were higher than book value (even commons). What did surprise me were that some cards (usually commons) were half of SMR. I almost pulled the trigger on a bunch of half price graded (PSA 5) cards! Have you saw a card and thought "this is a deal" and purchased a card even though you don't collect that particular set? It made me wonder if the seller was discounting the commons to get me on the hook, and once hooked I would have to come back and buy the boat (stars)!

i know sometimes if i am collecting a graded set and i come across a card i already have an its a great price i may buy it to flip it, but thats because i have following the market closing on sales on all the cards in the set...i dont rely on SMR, dont ever look at SMR as a buyer....

as a seller SMR can be useful if you are selling for less than SMR in your sales tactic though...

[Huck]

Originally Posted by 1952boyntoncollector

i dont rely on SMR, dont ever look at SMR as a buyer....

Why do you refrain from looking at the SMR? I have been working on the 1954 Red Heart set for quite some time. I would expect to pay a premium on the Mantle, Musial and perhaps Snider but the rest I would expect to get at or below book. If I decided to start another set, I would need a price base to gauge what I should expect to pay for the cards in a set. Granted there is a current bull market in some sets but not across the board.

[steve B]

I've only looked at a couple copies of SMR. At the time they priced cards in grades that didn't exist. - So for instance, there was a price for 8,9 and 10 when the highest graded was a 7.

That pretty much told me all I needed to know about its reliability as a price guide.

Guides in any hobby should be take as merely guides. I use them mostly to give me an idea of which cards/stamps/whatever are better than others, and by roughly how much.


I usually go off of a general feeling for what's a good deal or not. So yes, I constantly buy stuff that seems like a really good deal even if it isn't something I actively collect.
You just have to get a good feel for what's "good" and what's not. Typically I go for what seems "good" - Stuff that's hard to somewhat hard to find or that I can't recall seeing before or is interesting, but that might be currently unpopular or ignored. That can lead to some "overpaying" but if the stuff is truly good you won't go wrong and can get some really good buys.
Most of my collection of football and basketball cards that are pre 1973 came from one purchase. Flea market dealer had cards, mostly over priced singles and sets. At least that's what he had on his table. The shopping bag casually tossed on the ground a couple feet back and off to the side was full of football cards and some basketball/hockey. When I asked the price he said it was junk and I didn't want to buy it. I said I did want it and he said $20! That was before sports other than baseball had gotten popular.
The haul? 1970- about 75 football, all about 75% complete, lots of extras, no stars pulled. Same for Hockey, basketball was only the tall ones through maybe 72 and maybe 25% complete. Both also with stars included.
Condition was all over the range, some were beat, others were pretty nice.

A couple of the type cards I have were ones I didn't know anything about when I bought them - Uncle jacks, w504, that sort of stuff.

Steve B


Steve B

[4815162342]

I will buy E105s at SMR prices any time! Well, the scarcer ones anyway.

[1952boyntoncollector]

Originally Posted by biohazard

Why do you refrain from looking at the SMR? I have been working on the 1954 Red Heart set for quite some time. I would expect to pay a premium on the Mantle, Musial and perhaps Snider but the rest I would expect to get at or below book. If I decided to start another set, I would need a price base to gauge what I should expect to pay for the cards in a set. Granted there is a current bull market in some sets but not across the board.

you are talking about cards that go over SMR, there are many many cards that go 50% below SMR....i like to see what cards have actually sold for...if a certain card just isnt out there for sale for a long time and no indication more will be on the market for some time and i see one available, supply and demand...I could gladly 'overpay' and create a new market high no matter what SMR says....plus there is no store called VCP or SMR that you can go buy a card from as an alternative if a seller doesnt want to sell it to you at their stated rpice.... anyway thats why i dont care what SMR is as a buyer...as a seller, like i said thats different

ill pay SMR for any 1952 topps high number psa 6 which i believe is at $210 that is centered decently....what no takers? but its SMR....... SMR doesnt take in account centering at all as well..

[glynparson]

Sometimes SMR has some good articles. Its pricing like any price guide is completely useless and has nothing to do with market pricing. VCP is a much better tool but even that in a bull market can be off.

[Huck]

Originally Posted by 1952boyntoncollector

as an alternative if a seller doesnt want to sell it to you at their stated rpice.... anyway thats why i dont care what SMR is as a buyer...as a seller, like i said thats different

If a seller is using SMR as a sales tactic (ex. 50% below SMR) than the seller is using SMR as his price guide. If a card(s) is higher than SMR, sure the seller can say "these cards are hot and SMR has yet to adjust). The seller could also say "good luck finding that card at that grade at book value".

There has to be a base price be it VCP, SMR, Beckett or the Farmers Almanac. Prices can vary from the base due to centering, scarcity or demand etc.

In my opinion, dealers believe that the collector knows (or has an idea) as to the prices of cards. I am sure dealers mark up cards, knowing full well that the collector will ask for a discount. Collectors know and all dealers have probably all heard "I can get that card cheaper on ebay." So, if ebay is the great discounter and auction houses are the great price accelerator, price wise what is a collector to think?

Originally Posted by bobbyw8469

Still kills me seeing those outrageous prices on those cards. I know the dealers want you to negotiate, but when I see a price that far off, I think to myself "why bother"....

Originally Posted by curch

Yeah, I know. Was actually one of the cheaper ones that I found. And it was in the grade that I wanted. I collect cards for the card, not the grade. I just think it's awesome to own a piece of history like this. I don't need 4 razor sharp corners to enjoy the beauty of it.

Originally Posted by bobbyw8469

Agreed. It's a great card. No knock on the card at all. It's the dealers pricing strategies at card shows, and especially at the National, that has me shaking my head.

[Edwolf1963]

Originally Posted by glynparson

Sometimes SMR has some good articles. Its pricing like any price guide is completely useless and has nothing to do with market pricing. VCP is a much better tool but even that in a bull market can be off.

+1

[egbeachley]

Originally Posted by biohazard

Why do you refrain from looking at the SMR? I have been working on the 1954 Red Heart set for quite some time. I would expect to pay a premium on the Mantle, Musial and perhaps Snider but the rest I would expect to get at or below book.

Book value is book value. It should attempt to reflect going prices. You should not expect stars to be higher than book value nor commons to be less than book value. The relative value of stars and commons should already be considered.

Fact is, SMR is often completely out of touch with realized prices, even ignoring recent trends. Sometimes it's high, sometimes it's low. Using it, even as a guide, can get you burned.

[ls7plus]

Originally Posted by glynparson

Sometimes SMR has some good articles. Its pricing like any price guide is completely useless and has nothing to do with market pricing. VCP is a much better tool but even that in a bull market can be off.

+1 absolutely--although I would characterize the current market for '50's and '60's "9's" and "10's" as an investor market, rather than a bull market. All those cards are coming out now because the smart collector's know this is a very good time to sell.

Hi, Glyn, and best regards,

Larry

[Huck]

Originally Posted by ls7plus

+1 absolutely--although I would characterize the current market for '50's and '60's "9's" and "10's" as an investor market, rather than a bull market. All those cards are coming out now because the smart collector's know this is a very good time to sell.

Hi, Glyn, and best regards,

Larry

So does do buyers at these prices get left holding the bag, or is this price level the new normal? I guess, only time will tell.

[pokerplyr80]

As SMR is run by PSA it would not surprise me to find out that they intentionally list prices for big cards below market value to limit liability for cards damaged during the grading process. They may also inflate the prices of common cards to encourage more submissions.

Either way I would not make a purchase decision based on a price in relation to smr value. I use recent sales data from ebay, vcp, and auction results.

[ullmandds]

Originally Posted by pokerplyr80

As SMR is run by PSA it would not surprise me to find out that they intentionally list prices for big cards below market value to limit liability for cards damaged during the grading process. They may also inflate the prices of common cards to encourage more submissions.

Either way I would not make a purchase decision based on a price in relation to smr value. I use recent sales data from ebay, vcp, and auction results.

certainly seems to be a lot of conflicts of interest going on with psa?

[Mark17]

Originally Posted by egbeachley

Fact is, SMR is often completely out of touch with realized prices, even ignoring recent trends. Sometimes it's high, sometimes it's low. Using it, even as a guide, can get you burned.

I'm looking at the online SMR report now, for T3s. Imagine my surprise to learn that Bob Rhoads is a common - there is not one card in the set valued less, in any grade!

The rarest card in the set, and not even a slight premium assigned... that is displaying serious ignorance about that set.

[1952boyntoncollector]

Originally Posted by Mark17

I'm looking at the online SMR report now, for T3s. Imagine my surprise to learn that Bob Rhoads is a common - there is not one card in the set valued less, in any grade!

The rarest card in the set, and not even a slight premium assigned... that is displaying serious ignorance about that set.

I also think the POP report for the higher grade cards is a measuring tool.

if i see past sales for Smoky Burgess for example at a psa 8 for $100 with a POP 40 for same grade and above and some lesser common guy is going for 30$ with a POP 20...id rather have the lesser common guy because eventually the more known 'common' will continue to fall to what the POP is..

now i may of used a bad example in Smoky, im just saying there are some players that current card collectors still know but to people who not watch them play are still commons. as time goes on and if there is still significant card collecting....i do beleive all the non willie mays or big names and known rare variatins etc. will just be commons and POP will rule....for high end cards POP is more significant because less resubmissions when you have an 8 etc.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by glynparson

Sometimes SMR has some good articles. Its pricing like any price guide is completely useless and has nothing to do with market pricing....

I agree. Almost any book price that is not quoting actual sales can be off by a lot. That being said I do use the Beckett guide for pricing 50s-60s Topps. But pre-war has never had good guide values from what I have seen *(again, unless using previous sales data)

[HRBAKER]

An advertising tool masquerading as a price guide IMO.

[rfurnish]

Originally Posted by HRBAKER

An advertising tool masquerading as a price guide IMO.

Exactly! I don't even read it anymore because of this.