O/T Bonds Tied Aaron, Any Reaction at the National For Bonds Memorabilia

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Posted By: peter chao

Guys and Gals,

Did any of the dealers bring Bonds cards and memorabilia? I would think there would be a big jump in autographed Upper Deck and Topps cards. Possibly a pop in the price of autographed baseballs. Let me know. We're excited in the Bay Area because the Giants are coming home after this game. Everybody is hoping he will break the record in the Bay Area.

Peter C.

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Posted By: quan

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2961188

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Posted By: peter chao

The auction of the home run ball occurred before Barry tied the record, I'm more interested in whether there will be an increase in signed cards and balls at the National tomorrow a.m. My guess is that since it's the last day of the National, the dealers will be discounting almost everything except for Bonds signed cards and balls. They are going to hang onto this stuff anticipating the Feds will drop their investigation of Barry and his alleged perjury about taking steroids. Now's the time to buy Barry's stuff.

With all the problems Bush Jr. is having in the White House, I doubt if they are going to arrest Barry. Bush Jr. has difficulties just keeping his own people out of jail.

Peter C.

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Posted By: davidcycleback

A modern player's memorabilia value is almost at it's highest around the time he breaks that important record. The values almost always go down afterwards. The problem for Bonds is his peak value-wise actually was a few years ago. His autographs and game used material sell for less today than they did five or six years ago. His approach to the big record has been accompanied by a large decrease in memorabilia value, which is unusual.

The irony is that, if anyone's, it will be Aaron's memorabilia that will raise in value-- and I bet they will. Roger Maris' memorabilia values have risen dramatically since he lost his record, while McGwire and Sosa values have fallen. The cause of the increase is because today's collectors were reminded how great and nostalgic was his feat. It was like a re-release in theaters of a classic movie.

There's a bit of investment advice in there. If a record's going to be broken, don't forget about the guy who will lose the record.

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Posted By: MVSNYC

peter- his items are going DOWN in value. period. what more proof do you want then his 70th HR ball selling for less then $20K? the sale happened on the eve of him hitting 755, everyone knew he was goign to hit it, so it's not like today the value goes up, him hitting 755 was inevitable (sp- barry?). it's not like it was an unforseen milestone, or achievement like throwing a perfect game, no one knows when that is going to happen, gabeesh?

i think doug allen and cycle are right on, we are seeing and will continue to see a jump in OTHER players items, who clearly were far away from steroids (aaron, maris, ruth, etc)...

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Posted By: barrysloate

You got that one right Michael!

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Posted By: MVSNYC

barry- do you have a special bell or alarm that goes off everytime i use the "barry spell-checker"?

that is great!

this seems like a perfect thread to start talking about our next NYC Dinner!

when are we doing it?

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Posted By: MVSNYC

Re: bonds last night...

what i found interesting, is that in the beginning of the game, you heard plenty of boos, and by the time he was replaced for a pinch runner in the 8th, the crowd was overwhelmingly (sp-barry?) behind him, cheering, standing-O, etc...that surprised me.

i think the crowd got wrapped-up in the moment, and realized (whether we like it or not) they were wtinessing history.

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Posted By: barrysloate

I just happened to be reading the post, I'm not stalking you!

I think the NYC Dinner thread is petering out. Even I might take a break (but we could consider making a Luger's dinner reservation for September- that might bring a few guys back into circulation).

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Posted By: MVSNYC

i'll call Luger's and see what we can get.

MS

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Posted By: barrysloate

Michael- consider a seating for 6-8 at 6:45 on a day in Sept (except Sept 20, I know I am busy that day), and let's keep it at a manageable number.

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Posted By: jay behrens

Another reason for the hit in price is that even though a 70th HR ball is significant, it's not the ball the set the record. There used to be a big rush to buy all the balls that led up to the record, but trend seems to have died off. If #71 came to market, I doubt it would fare any better. For that matter, #70 is no more important than #1. Neither set the record, they just contributed to it.

Jay

The richest person is not the one who has the most, but the one who needs the least.

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Posted By: MVSNYC

jay- i see your point, but if it was a different player, it would be a different story.

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Posted By: Neal Kane

Bonds will never be considered the Home Run King.

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Posted By: Jim Dale

for several years until AROD passes him there is little anyone can do to change that...unless every pitcher walks him from now until he's 50 something he'll stay out there until he gets it and then he will be the home run "steroid" king.

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Posted By: Peter Spaeth

Sure Peter C. there was a huge contingent of collectors just holding their breath waiting to see if Barry actually was going to tie the record, fearing he might never hit another home run because he would suddenly develop a career ending injury, but now that he has tied it NOW they are going to want a signed Upper Deck card and so the demand is going to go way up with a resulting overnight price increase that is going to play itself out on the floor of the National.

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Posted By: MVSNYC

peter s- thank you for expressing it EXACTLY the way i really wanted to.

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Posted By: Peter Spaeth

The ability of our value-obsessed friend to concoct these weird scenarios is limitless, and for that I guess he is to be admired.

I am still breathlessly awaiting the impact of "THE CARD" on the price structure of the vintage card market, with possibly ramifications for the global economy.

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Posted By: Rob Dewolf

Thank you sincerely, Peter S., for taking the time (twice) to put into words pretty much exactly what I was thinking but was too annoyed to post.

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Posted By: MVSNYC

by the way, for those who thought "the card" would have a huge impact on the value of the T206 Wagner in a negative way...

check out the hammer price of the beat-up T206 Wagner from Mastro's live auction...

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Posted By: Peter Spaeth

I have decided not to even comment on the suggestion that there is some connection between the current political fortunes of the Bush White House and whether Barry Bonds gets indicted.

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Posted By: Jason L

since it became evident that Bonds was a fraud.
I find his cards to be far more appealing for many reasons

Though I despise his public persona (dont know the guy personally), I will say that if A-Rod ever becomes even a tad more beloved, and then adds the ability to perform under pressure, and he approaches or breaks the HR record, there will be a new king in town.
-Now that I sit back and look at that sentence,... -that's a lot of "ifs" isn't it?

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Posted By: Rick McQuillan

Peter, from my limited experience, dealers are not discounting their items on Sunday. If that was the case, no one would buy anything at the National until Sunday when all of the deep discounts are available. If it has been a good show the dealers don't have any reason to discount their items because they have already covered their expenses and made a profit.

I have found it to be difficult to make a deal on Sunday afternoon. Many of the dealers are packing up, or they have already gone home 2-3-4 hours before the show officially ends.

As far as Barry Bonds items, I wouldn't invest anything in his cards or memorabilia. There is a general lack of confidence as to the long term viability of these items. His stuff is probably at its peak right now, and it looks like it only has one place to go, and that is down, and possibly down drastically if he is indicted or convicted.

Looking forward to next years National.

Rick

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Posted By: jay behrens

Pete C is correct in general about people being hot on the chase after a player's items when they reach a milestone or break a record. How else do you explain the rash of interest in a players items around the time of HOF induction ceremonies, etc. In general, people are sheep and they are not proactive, they are reactive. How else do you explain people hot after Ripken items even though their has been no secret he's been headed to HOF since broke Gehrig's record?

If this was anyone but Bonds, you would see happen what Pete C is talking about, but Bonds is the exception to the normal rule of things.

Jay

The richest person is not the one who has the most, but the one who needs the least.

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Posted By: Anson Lytle

The far left, progressives will always look for reasons to tie in misfortune with the Bush administration. Bush is a doofus, but let's get over comparing EVERYTHING to him. It gets old and devalues the actual criticism he deserves.

I doubt there will be much movement in Bonds stuff. The more I think about it, the more it's a shame. Even without the juice, he still may have ended up being one of the best ever to play the game. Without taking roids and being an a-hole, he could have been embraced by this generation.

I appreciate A-Rod as much as anyone. But, there's no guarantee that he didn't dabble in the juice either.

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Posted By: PS

Jay I don't think the analogy to Ripken is quite right, sure when he starts getting publicity again after five years out of the game you will see an uptick of interest, but I think any surge of interest in Bonds has been there ever since it became clear he would break the record, not OVERNIGHT (and which would result in some sudden change of behavior on the floor of a show) because of one record tying homer which was the premise of Pete C.'s post.

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Posted By: MVSNYC

jay-yes of course items increase in value as a player approaches a milestone or record, BUT, peter clearly is asking about bonds here, not about players in general...

that's enough for me this morning, i am going to an outdoor cafe and having some bloody mary's.

see ya'll later.

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Posted By: Cobby33

As Jay B. points out, the #70 HR ball is insignificant, especially this many years later. Still, over $14K for such an insignificant piece of memorabilia shows the command Bonds does have in the hobby, despite those who have already rushed to judgment and have determined some causal link between allegations of steroid use and its ability to make an incredible player. I'm sure Bonds' critics have emperical proof that without the steroids (allegedly), he would have been cut years ago.

Like it or not, Bonds is the "home run king." For those of you who reject that, show me an official record book which states otherwise.

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Posted By: Anson Lytle

I think the official record books probably aren't in print, being that it actually hasn't happened yet. There's no doubt, Barry is a HOF talent regardless of what he did (yes, he did). Yes, it's true, steroids are not just a Bonds issue. However, he has taken a path that has made himself less popular with Non-SF Giant fans. Like it or not, he is not well liked.

His memorabilia would probably have more upside if it wern't for the dark cloud that hangs above him. Great player, bad judgement, poor attitude.

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Posted By: barrysloate

I think it's sad that Bonds will shortly hit his 756th home run, breaking the most hallowed record in all of sports, and we are unable to enjoy it. I used to be a big Bonds fan but even I can't muster any enthusiasm for it. It's going to count, and be in the record books, but nobody seems to care. Is it a sign of the times, or an isolated incident?

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Posted By: peter chao

Peter S. do I detect a bit of sarcasm in your posts. At any rate, it will be interesting to see if the Tri-Star Labor Day Show here in SF in about a month will bring any changes in the price of Bonds memorabilia.

As much as anybody I've been wrapped up in Bond's record chase, but that's only because the Giants are so far out of playoff contention that there's nothing else for a Giants' fan to root for. It looks like the Giants are really out of it and Brian Sabean should take rebuilding seriously.

Peter C.

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Posted By: Cobby33

"I think the official record books probably aren't in print, being that it actually hasn't happened yet."

I think you know what I meant, if not, how's this- "to date, all statistics in print show Bonds currently in a tie with Aaron with the most career home runs."

Feel better?

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Posted By: Joe Pelaez

I remember them as the Polo Grounds Jints ... with a REAL rivalry with The Brooklyn Bums...................

Ah ... The New York Jints..............

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Posted By: Neal Kane

haw

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Posted By: PS

Barry, I think it is a sign of the times, if by that you mean people's reactions to steroid-aided records. It wasn't that long ago Ripken broke Gehrig's record with a huge interest, and in 98 when most people thought they were clean McGwire and Sosa had a huge following too.

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Posted By: jay behrens

The fans and MLB have no one to blame but themselves for all of this. Fans love the HR and MLB turned a blind eye to what was going on. Way back in 1986 when Canseco first came up with the A's there was talked that he was juiced up on steroids.

Fans love and want to see HRs (not me, I find them boring and anti-climatic). Now they want to vilify Bonds and everyone else for giving them exactly what they wanted and cheered for when they found out it may have been done in a way that they didn't publicly approve of.

Do you really think Ruth or Aaron could have put the same numbers if they played in today's game facing juiced up pitching specialists?

Jay

The richest person is not the one who has the most, but the one who needs the least.

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Posted By: Ken McMillan

too much good stuff at the national to waste time on Barry. Very successful hunting also.

Ken

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Posted By: PS

To be sure, steroids are a generational problem in baseball, for which many people bear culpability. But it is human nature to want a scapegoat, a symbol, a target, and between being about to surpass the most cherished record of all and his unrelenting bad attitude and lack of grace, Barry has for better or worse hung a big bullsye on himself. He is the guy you love to hate. Is it disproportionate? Sure it is, somewhat.

Jay is right about Canseco, I remember going to Sox games in the late 80s with the fans chanting "steroids" at him and Jose, who took it all quite good naturedly, flexing his muscles back at the fans.

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Posted By: peter chao

What gets me is the bullseye should really be on Bud Selig. If major league owners know when their players are engaging in dangerous off-season sports like skiing and motorcycle racing then surely they know the training regimen of their stars. How could they not know that a third of their MVPs within the last 10 years were on steroids? The owners did nothing and Bud Selig did nothing, instead they reaped in the bucks.

And they continue to reap in the bucks from Barry's homers and they continue to let the players take the flak while they sit there and watch the homers with their hands in their pockets acting as innocent as can be.

Peter C.

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Posted By: Neal Kane

can fit on Bonds forehead .. with plenty of room to spare.

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Posted By: davidcycleback

Peter, last time I checked, Selig is widely disliked. Most baseball writers and fans blame the players, their union and the executives for the drug problem.

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Posted By: Andy McKay

Peter,

That's definitely true. One of my most vivid memories of games at Fenway was a game against the A's with the fans chanting "Steroids, Steroids, Steroids" and "Jose, Jose, Jose you suck!" while he was standing in the OF.

Of course he was cheered once he put on a Sox uniform a few years later...

Andy

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Posted By: Neal Kane

Bonds does not have a forehead .... he has a fivehead

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Posted By: Mike

The Genie is out of the bottle........for the rest of eternity we will have nuclear weapons, and steroids in sports etc. etc. Along with thousands of other things that will be abused. We have to learn to deal with these issues. I am not saying I am for, or against any of the aforementioned. Anyone who thinks we will ever revert back to a kinder and simpler time, are dreaming. Many technological evils are here to stay.