$5800+ for a T206 common

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Posted By: warshawlaw

Very fine lithographs in many cases.

"it's a dessert topping!"
"It's a floor wax!"
"It's a dessert topping, you cow!"
"New Shimmer is a dessert topping AND a floor wax!"

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Posted By: JimCrandell

The market for T206 pop 1 PSA 8 commons has been at about $6,000 for about a year now. Pop 2s go for $4,500-$5,000 with pop 3s perhaps another $1,000 lower. Even the high pop psa 8 commons are going above $2,000.

The value of vintage graded cards is all about the pop and will be increasingly so in the future.

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Posted By: T206Collector

"The value of vintage graded cards is all about the pop and will be increasingly so in the future."

1) Do you consider SGC/GAI, etc. populations?

2) "pop" will only increase in the future. The question is whether demand will also increase with supply. That is anybody's guess.

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Posted By: barrysloate

Jim- then what you are saying is it is all about the competition. People just want to have something that noone else does, and are willing to pay whatever it takes to get it.

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Posted By: JimCrandell

Barry,

What I am saying is that the hobby is attracting wealthy vintage collectors who as far as I can tell are every bit as passionate about the hobby as poor vintage collectors. These vintage collectors want to know the card is legit and they want it to be as high grade as possible. When wealthy people buy something they want the best or for it to be at the high end.

This will continue to drive high grade vintage sportscard pricing higher, in my opinion, as supply of high end material is limited and demand continues to increase. I think pricing will continue to be the strongest over time at the high end and we will see a continued widening of the gap between mid grade and high grade vintage material.

Vintage raw nrmt-mt cards will become relatively rare as collecions when they change hands will be graded.

Most raw collections that I have heard described as nrmt or nrmt-mt aren't by todays grading standards of PSA and SGC.

So if one wants to play in psa 8 or better prewar, cost is high but I am betting the appreciation will be high as well.

T206 Collector,

I think you have to consider the pops of SGC and GAI as well.
And yes--demand for a nbparticular set is critical and nowhere does it seem so strong as T206. I keep debating whether to sell some of my 155 or so PSA 8s as I never will complete the set in high grade but so far it has been a good decision to hold back.

Jim

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Posted By: barrysloate

Jim- I agree that there is a strong demand for high grade material but even the top-tier stuff can have their peaks and valleys. I've seen high end coins fall in value because prices were too driven by speculators. And I think that the card market has mirrored numismatics closely. Not suggesting it's bad to spend so much on PSA-8's, just that markets do fluctuate. And add to the fact that part of the high prices are a result of one collector playing keepaway from another, and volatility can be expected.

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Posted By: Bob

The caveat is that there are prewar PSA 8s which have been soaked, stretched and laser cut. This is not gossip or mindless drivel, there have been many stories out there by long time collectors who either had first hand knowledge of these cards or actually at one time owned them, before sale and slabbing.
Give me a solid PSA 3, 4 or 5 with nice eye appeal and decent prices any day of the week.
Just my 2 cents...

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Posted By: barrysloate

A PSA 3,4, or 5 will always hold its value and probably gradually increase because there is a very deep collector market. PSA-8's at the multi-thousand dollar level is a thin market and if a couple of well heeled collectors decide to drop out, it will have an effect on prices.

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Posted By: Rick

pre war cards are not endless ..they are quite finite.

The price paid for these high end cards has to do also with the percieved scarcity.

lets say there are 10 possible PSA 8+ quality-206 cards for a particular player. ( lets assume that not " new" ones can be made by doctoring etc)

...some people believe that we have reached a point where at least half of those cards are already graded.

some people believe we are either at 25% or 75%

Sooner or later grading will mature to a point when a noticeable majority of these 10 high end cards will be graded.

lets say 3 are graded right now and 5 more will find their way into a holder in the next 10 years..somewhere in the world there is 2 raw ones.

at this point an atrition becomes pretty significant ...a fire , a flooding etc could cause as much upset in the market as to balance out any new discoveries.

the real question is wether the market will or will not absorb the 5 cards that were introduced in the last 10 years.

I think it could...But then again ...i dont have 155 T-206 psa 8's cards

I would be hard for me to speculate on the future when you have an easy half a mill sitting around

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Posted By: warshawlaw

I see it as desirable. I want them to compete over the "best of the best of the best" and leave the mid and low grade stuff to big, dumb, unrefined peasants like me who just can't appreciate the rarified merits of their passion.

As far as I am concerned the set registry bunch can take their 8's and stick 'em; I'm not interested. I'll probably die with the core collection still in my possession, so whether they are worth more than someone else's cards doesn't matter to me because mine aren't going anywhere until I take the dirt nap. But please don't insult my intelligence or my collection by arguing the greater artistic merits of a razor-edged, plastic-preserved piece of cardboard that looks like it was cut yesterday versus one of my well-loved pasteboard friends. Beauty is in the eye of the beholder, not in the label on the PSA holder.

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Posted By: cmoking

sounds like a bitter man. who insulted you?

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Posted By: Gilbert Maines

He is not bitter, but he does exaggerate a bit. He is not really what you would call "big".

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Posted By: JimCrandell

Just to site an example of what we are looking at here, one of the major buyers of vintage sportscards in high grade is Chad Dreier--ceo of Ryland Group. This is public info but I believe Chad ranked as the 12th highest paid executive in the country with comp of over $50mm last year. Does Chad want to buy ungraded vg-ex cards. I doubt it.
Don Louchios is ceo of Victor Medical--does he want to buy ungraded cards?
Don Spence is an oil company exec who is easily dropping 7 figures a year into cards.

While I agree with your point Barry about volatility and that it can be a thin market, the direction I think is clearly up and the hobby is less well developed than coin collecting. I think considerable upside in prices still exists with high grade HOFers and low pop pre-war in general.

Jim

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Posted By: Gilbert Maines

Davalillo: The truth in what you say is obvious. And I support this status in all collectable markets. A strengthening in the top end never hurts the lower end.

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Posted By: jay behrens

low pop cards are still a very dangerous area to be droppping a lot of moeny into. I forget what t206 it is, but nmy brother just unloaded one of 3 or 4 known 84/7 with none higher. Just recently an 8 and I believe another 7 has shown up on the market. Definatley not a good thing if dropped a lot of moeny on this card. Maybe 20+ years down the line, low pop will have more meaning and and stability, but right now, there are still far too many high grade, raw collections out there to betting your money on low pop cards.

Jay

Growing old is not optional, growing up is.