Market trends and fluctuations? (T206)

[Ericc22]

I am particularly interested in T cards, T206 in particular. I am wondering though in general, what have you seen of the market for vintage cards? I have been involved collecting T206s for about 2 years and I can't say that in that time I've seen the market go up or down. From what I understand the market is in fact down from where it was about 5 years ago.

I do use VCP regularly and can't see a trend for vintage, or T206 in general. Seems flat to me. I know individual cards vary but I am wondering about trends in the aggregate.

So I am just curious, do you see a trend in the market, up, down or otherwise?

Now, pure conjecture question.... With fewer kids coming into the hobby and baseball on the decline, does that cause prices to go down over time? Or does the rarity make up for that?

Anyone want to offer any predictions?

Hope this makes some sense? I realized I am spending a few bucks on this so just got to thinking about these things.

Thanks for any help with the newbie questions!

Eric

[btcarfagno]

I am of the opinion that there are a lot of people out there like me in one respect. We were heavily into collecting the "shiny new stuff" in the 1970's and 1980's when we were kids. We were part of the "boom" in collecting cards, and many of us revered the vintage stuff at the time, but could not afford it. Then the 90's came with all of the truly "shiny" new stuff and we soured on the hobby and what it became.

Many of us in this situation now find ourselves with some amount of disposable income for the first time. As such, I see the market for vintage...cards that many of us once yearned for from afar, and cards that retained their value while the new stuff tanked...to be strong going forward for quite a while.

That's my take anyway.

Tom C

[pgellis]

I've been collecting T206 (SGC Graded) for about 6 years now. I would say that I have seen a slight (10%) increase in commons over those 6 years. Not much really......I think it is probably a result of fewer true auctions on eBay today.

I would say that your common T206 SGC50/PSA4 goes for about $50. 6 years ago, I picked up several T206 SGC50 on Ebay for under $40. I think that was because you would see at least 100 true auctions for T206 SGC50 cards every week on eBay......now you see probably 10 or so, with many overpriced BINs taking their place.

The big increase in T206 pricing and demand lately has been on rare backs. 6 years ago, I could pick up some mildly rare backs (Cycle 460, Sovereign 460) at not much more than a common back.......today there is a big demand for backs other than SC or Piedmont.

[Runscott]

Originally Posted by pgellis

The big increase in T206 pricing and demand lately has been on rare backs. 6 years ago, I could pick up some mildly rare backs (Cycle 460, Sovereign 460) at not much more than a common back.......today there is a big demand for backs other than SC or Piedmont.

I have been away from the hobby for a while, but that's exactly what I'm seeing as well - the common backs on vg-ex and below don't seem to have changed much, other than a few oddball cards like the Cobb bat off. What that tells me is that there are still plenty of T206's circulating and if all you care about is the pretty picture on the front, you're good to go (that would be me).

As far as the backs going up, the tough backs were always tough (by definition of scarcity), and people who cared about them in the past were less likely to let go of them than a common back. More collectors means more collectors of tough backs, means less tough backs. We'll find the same thing with commons some day, but I'm hoping that is a long way off still.

[sportscardpete]

If you bought Broadleaf 350's a little over a year ago, give yourself a pat on the back... They have gone up significantly in value over the past two years...

[sreader3]

I agree with much of what has been said.

T206 commons and HOFers with common backs (Piedmont, Sweet Caporal)have been essentially flat for about five years after a huge run-up.

When I reentered the T206 market in 2003, you could get PSA 5 Piedmont or Sweet Caporal commons on eBay for about $70 each and PSA 6 commons for about $140 each. By 2006, you were paying $100 and $200, respectively, for these same cards--which is not too different from today's prices. Maybe now it's more like $90 and $180 for TRUE commons, but collectors are more sophisticated about scarcities so more difficult commons still sell at the 2006 prices or higher.

On the other hand, collector sophistication has caused scarcer backs (anything from EPDG on up) to go through the roof since 2006. For example, prices for EPDG, Cycle and American Beauty have increased maybe 50%, prices for Brown Hindu and Carolina Brights have at least doubled, and prices for Broad Leaf and other very scarce backs have at least quadrupled.

[ls7plus]

I think you'll see continued growth in T206's, because it is such a classic set, even though off-grade examples are far from rare. But this will be over time, and there will be some ups and downs along the way, rather than anything like linear, upward growth. Our hobby has clearly been growing--take a look at some of the auction catalogues from the bigger auction companies of today, versus the early 2000's. There is no comparison in the volume and diversity of the lots offered.

Collectible coins have risen in value in cycles, with the popularity of any given series gaining and waning over time. Generally, however, the down end of the cycle for a truly classic, collectible item leaves it higher than when the up cycle started, albeit lower than its peak. I recently reread portions of Paul Green and Kit Kiefer's 1994 "101 Ways to Make Money in the Trading Card Market RIGHT NOW!" mostly for laughs, as most of the time, these two hadn't a clue concerning lasting value (one of the short chapters was titled, "Sell black and whites," because black and white cards "just do not sell." Perhaps the recent buyers of the T210 Jackson at nearly $200,000, the ExMt and VgEx+ Ruth rookies at $100,000 and $75,000 should have been so advised before their purchases!). Anyway, the authors commented therein at that time that T206 commons in Vg, despite the figures given in price guides of about $12, actually changed hands at only $2 to $5. I haven't been a member of PSA for some time, so the info I have from that source is not the most up to date, but a relatively recent SMR pegged the value of such cards at $50 each.

The economy has dimished disposable income, which has hurt the more available classic cards (although we all know of rare and significant cards that have soared) in the short term, but I think you'll see definite long-term growth that will be worthwhile, if not spectacular for these. Just don't buy them today and think you'll be able to flip them for significant profits 2-3 years from now.

Just my $1.50's worth!

Best always,

Larry

[Ericc22]

Thanks for the feedback everyone. So my understanding is that prices have stayed steady for common backs for about 5 years. (Wish I could say the same for my stocks....) And rare backs are increasingly more valuable. The general expectation is that prices will stay flat for at least a while.

I am assuming no site tracks a bundle, over time? Again, just curious here. It would be kind of easy for VCP eg to track the changes in a card bundle but I guess they don't do such a thing.

Thanks!

Eric

[mrvster]

great input all!!...Larry, well thought out...


My 2 cents....t206 rarities (rare backs, magie, wag, scraps, hofers, etc)...will always appreciate.....more common t206 to see modest growth over the years...

the set is highly collectable fueled by the "holy grail" of cards, wags...will always be popular...the set is obviously fun to collect and enough cards are avaible to put "sets" together....

interest+collectabilty+rarity+condition=price
(supply + demand)
imo..

simple economics to follow

Business Major sorry....

[MooseWithFleas]

Agree with what many on here are saying. I could see there being a setback at one point if they ever deem the Gretzky Wagner trimmed. From there, the next best Wagner will become the Holy Grail and appreciate like it has done before.