What I Don't Understand about Baseball Card Economics

[Dpeck100]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_f3k5VSqVt4

[RollieFingers]

Originally Posted by Dpeck100

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_f3k5VSqVt4

Woohoo!! Thanks!

[Peter_Spaeth]

It would take a huge sum of money to get me to watch more than 1 minute of that lol.

[Dpeck100]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

It would take a huge sum of money to get me to watch more than 1 minute of that lol.

Peter you might like the comment section. Haha

Not a very well received video that is for sure. 56 up votes and 95 down votes and some blistering opinions expressed.

Either way I think he really feels this way and while I totally understand why many disagree I think much of what he is saying has been happening and will continue to happen.

I have a client that has close to 20 refurbished 50's collector cars. If they can get the cars to look exactly like they did when they were brand new I don't doubt for a minute there are folks out there who can work magic on cards and go undetected.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Dpeck100

Peter you might like the comment section. Haha

Not a very well received video that is for sure. 56 up votes and 95 down votes and some blistering opinions expressed.

Either way I think he really feels this way and while I totally understand why many disagree I think much of what he is saying has been happening and will continue to happen.

I have a client that has close to 20 refurbished 50's collector cars. If they can get the cars to look exactly like they did when they were brand new I don't doubt for a minute there are folks out there who can work magic on cards and go undetected.

I would need a heavy dose of blood pressure meds to watch him for any length of time. Were it someone objective, sure. But not someone who has worked hand in glove with a major card doctor or maybe more than one for over a decade. Pass.

[Dpeck100]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I would need a heavy dose of blood pressure meds to watch him for any length of time. Were it someone objective, sure. But not someone who has worked hand in glove with a major card doctor or maybe more than one for over a decade. Pass.

You might break your computer screen or smartphone. I would pass. LOL

I watched it because I wanted to see what he had to say.

Brent is a disrupter and he clearly has one vision and how that plays out remains to be seen. It is very easy to argue he has taken on too much too soon with card indexes, stickers, the vault, investment advice etc. but it is clear he isn't taking advice from anyone and is going for it.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Dpeck100

You might break your computer screen or smartphone. I would pass. LOL

I watched it because I wanted to see what he had to say.

Brent is a disrupter and he clearly has one vision and how that plays out remains to be seen. It is very easy to argue he has taken on too much too soon with card indexes, stickers, the vault, investment advice etc. but it is clear he isn't taking advice from anyone and is going for it.

We'll see where he ends up in light of all that is hitting the fan about the seemingly countless doctored cards he has sold. Knowingly, I might add. An interesting vision, that.

[maniac_73]

Darren Rovell has started tweeting about it so it will slowly start spreading mainstream

[barrysloate]

Restoration has a different level of acceptance in different hobbies. It is understood that cars will be restored. If you want to drive it and the engine is dead, you replace it. If the chrome is rusted you polish it. Collectors know that.

Coins, stamps, and baseball cards are viewed differently. It is best to leave them in their original condition. You can't compare automobiles and baseball cards with regard to restoration.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

Restoration has a different level of acceptance in different hobbies. It is understood that cars will be restored. If you want to drive it and the engine is dead, you replace it. If the chrome is rusted you polish it. Collectors know that.

Coins, stamps, and baseball cards are viewed differently. It is best to leave them in their original condition. You can't compare automobiles and baseball cards with regard to restoration.

Dave wasn't equating them I don't think, just pointing out that it can't be that hard to convincingly alter a card.

[Dpeck100]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

Restoration has a different level of acceptance in different hobbies. It is understood that cars will be restored. If you want to drive it and the engine is dead, you replace it. If the chrome is rusted you polish it. Collectors know that.

Coins, stamps, and baseball cards are viewed differently. It is best to leave them in their original condition. You can't compare automobiles and baseball cards with regard to restoration.

Not condoning just stating I think it is unrealistic to think it isn't possible.

A few years back I got some rust stains off my front porch that were on non polished travertine. I tried everything I had at home but it wouldn't work. I went to a stone store and sure enough they had a cleaner that could do it. You would never know the stains were there. I believe a similar solution has probably been created that can remove stains from cards without any after effects. Not saying it is right just saying I believe it is possible.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Dpeck100

Not condoning just stating I think it is unrealistic to think it isn't possible.

A few years back I got some rust stains off my front porch that were on non polished travertine. I tried everything I had at home but it wouldn't work. I went to a stone store and sure enough they had a cleaner that could do it. You would never know the stains were there. I believe a similar solution has probably been created that can remove stains from cards without any after effects. Not saying it is right just saying I believe it is possible.

Not sure. I think it may be extremely difficult to detect with normal methods but last time we had this discussion, knowledgeable people thought with the right equipment it could be detected and does change the card.

[Dpeck100]

https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-...or-155-million


Steve Wynn Picasso. I am sure many are aware or have read about this.

Quote from the article


"The restoration seems to be factored into the price," Beverly Schreiber Jacoby, valuation specialist and president of New York-based BSJ Fine Art, told Bloomberg. "If you didn't know that it has been damaged, you would not see it. It's superbly restored."


If a painting can be fixed without leaving a trail I believe cards can too.

[Rich Klein]

Just as an FYI, I ran one of small Plano card shows this weekend. Out of the 125-150 people who were in the room at some point, maybe 3 even mentioned this subject and maybe one really cared. This "IS" an important issue but remember we're a very small percent of the hobby as an whole.

[drcy]

I think investors invest in how they're invested.

If it is known there are irrational variations in grading, but the prices still go along a line, they are investing in that line.

Investors have been keeping their heads in the sand about certain issues, because everyone else has been keeping their heads in the sand. Most everyone, including registry mebers with a brain must have already realized the irrational variations and margins in error in the number grades on labels, and many people have already been of the belief that many high-grade cards in holders are altered-- I've been of that belief for many years.

Also, what facts don't affect prices today, doesn't mean they won't affect prices tomorrow.

I think longterm investment in "high grade" vintage cards is a bad idea. Nice looking cards will still fetch good prices, but I don't believe in the future someone will pay $100,000 for a one grade increment knowing the card is likely altered to get to that grade. I, and of course many others, already thought it looney considering the normal variations (margins of error) in assigning a grade itself. Considerations the margins of error and variations is grading, paying $500,000 more for a 10 over a 9 is, in many people's opinion, silly enough, but paying $500,000 for a trimmed edge in someone's basement is beyond the pale of expectations.

My assumption, my opinion, is that the majority of high-grade vintage cards have been altered, or 'conserved' if you prefer. And, if and when that sets in with the hobby as a whole, I assume it will affect pricing.

Also, it doesn't take the entire hobby or current 'investors' to give up the ghost on high-grade cards to affect the market. It can just take a substantial minority, in particular, if they are big spenders.

[Dpeck100]

https://www.ebay.com/itm/1984-Donrus....c100033.m2042

Is this normal for a 1984 Donruss Don Mattingly? I remember when these were in the $600 to $700 range.

[Mark17]

Originally Posted by drcy

I think investors invest in how they're invested.

If it is known there are irrational variations in grading, but the prices still go along a line, they are investing in that line.

Investors have been keeping their heads in the sand about certain issues, because everyone else has been keeping their heads in the sand. Most everyone, including registry mebers with a brain must have already realized the irrational variations and margins in error in the number grades on labels, and many people have already been of the belief that many high-grade cards in holders are altered-- I've been of that belief for many years.

Also, what facts don't affect prices today, doesn't mean they won't affect prices tomorrow.

I think longterm investment in "high grade" vintage cards is a bad idea. Nice looking cards will still fetch good prices, but I don't believe in the future someone will pay $100,000 for a one grade increment knowing the card is likely altered to get to that grade. I, and of course many others, already thought it looney considering the normal variations (margins of error) in assigning a grade itself. Considerations the margins of error and variations is grading, paying $500,000 more for a 10 over a 9 is, in many people's opinion, silly enough, but paying $500,000 for a trimmed edge in someone's basement is beyond the pale of expectations.

My assumption, my opinion, is that the majority of high-grade vintage cards have been altered, or 'conserved' if you prefer. And, if and when that sets in with the hobby as a whole, I assume it will affect pricing.

I think two things are going on with some of the high roller investors:

1. When PSA assigns a card a high grade, that then is what the card "becomes." If you're holding a PSA 9 Mantle, forget what the card looks like; what it is, to the investor, is a PSA 9 Mantle, period. How it got there (overly generous grading, unnoticeable alteration) is basically irrelevant.

2. The PSA population report creates artificial rarity. A seasoned collector will understand why a T206 Doyle in fair condition is quite highly desirable because of its (legitimate) rarity, while an investor will look at a 1967 Card #1 The Champs in PSA 10 and see that only one exists. So, to the investor, that card is unique. If he wants the BEST 1967 set, he must have that specific instance of that card (so his thinking goes.)

I have often thought that PSA, and other TPG, basically have a business model that allows them to create wealth out of thin air. I think collectors who buy cards that are legitimately scarce will, in the long run, have a "portfolio" of "assets" that will grow in value, while those who are paying huge multiples for those 9s and 10s are just inflating a false bubble.

[RollieFingers]

Originally Posted by Rich Klein

Just as an FYI, I ran one of small Plano card shows this weekend. Out of the 125-150 people who were in the room at some point, maybe 3 even mentioned this subject and maybe one really cared. This "IS" an important issue but remember we're a very small percent of the hobby as an whole.

interesting

[RollieFingers]

how many people even work at these places? 2 months wait sounds like bad business anyway

[mark evans]

Due to the inherent subjectivity in grading, I've believed for some time that the hobby is due for a 'correction' to redress the tremendous disparity in values at the high end of the grading scale. Of course, to date, this correction has existed only in my imagination.

But, I now wonder whether the current scandal, assuming well publicized, will trigger or help facilitate such a correction.

[RollieFingers]

Not everyone pays attention to facebook or even card forums. I didn't think much of this till someone said there was an article in wall street journal.
Unless it shows up on national news tv.. I don't know if it causes grading to plummet or not. I've never graded. I'm a junk wax dealer.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by RollieFingers

Not everyone pays attention to facebook or even card forums. I didn't think much of this till someone said there was an article in wall street journal.
Unless it shows up on national news tv.. I don't know if it causes grading to plummet or not. I've never graded. I'm a junk wax dealer.

If it hits a major newspaper it will spread, I believe.