Rarity argument at work today

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Posted By: J Levine

One of my friends who collects mostly 30s and 40s stuff was arguing today about rarity and price. He was mentioning the Goudey Lajoie and Cobb with Cobb back and Ruth Baltimore News.

I blurt out without thinking that if you want rarity, find me a T205 Drum Cobb.

That got me thinking...how many Drum Cobbs could there be? If you really want rarity, it is things like this that make me wonder. I know there are a handful of Cobb w/ Cobb backs, a few Lajoies, even a couple Baltimore News Ruths but really, how many Drum back Cobbs are there? (or a T207 Red Cross Walter Johnson, etc.)

Just thinking out loud.

Joshua

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Posted By: leon

It seems like almost everyday I am discussing the way prices are determined. No matter what it is it's always supply AND demand first, imo. There might only be 2 of something but if only 1 person wants one it might not be too expensive. Obviously, as in the (pick one) T207 Red Cross Weaver, there is only one known. Demand would be high if it were for sale (it isn't) so the price would be fairly high. There are other cards that are as rare but are not close to as valuable...as the demand isn't there for them. My guess is there might not be a Johnson T207 Red Cross, but it wouldn't be the strangest thing I ever saw, if I did see one. I would imagine there will be more T207 Red Crosses found. To the best of my knowledge there are about 5 known. But back to topic....even if something is very rare it might not be too valuable. regards

ps...to answer another question I don't think there are too many T205 Cobb/Drum combinations around, if any..I've never heard of or seen one..

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Posted By: drc

When the discussion is rarity, I differentiate between a card that is by itself rare (1933 Goudey Lajoie, Baltimore News Ruth) and a card that is not rare except for a variation (T206 Cobb Drum). Their rarity can't be perfectly compared, because they belong in different categories.

Another way to look at it is, with a rare variation card, a part of the card is rare. With a Baltimore News Ruth the whole card is rare. The question then becomes, in a population report, are the cards even comparable and, if so, is one Ty Cobb Drum Back (50 percent rare, 50 percent common) equal to one Baltimore News Ruth card (100 percent rare)? Different collectors will have different opinions to those questions. This illustrates that answering the question of baseball card rarity involves as much subjectivity and personal taste as it does mathematical calculations. Relying on the same population counts, two collectors can have different opinions as to what card is the rarest.

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Posted By: Judge Dred (Fred)

Josh,

Count yourself very fortunate that you get to have a conversation with someone at work about vintage cards. People at work would probably have Human Resources send me over for a pee test if I said N172 or Goudey or T206. They'd think I was blathering about. My only fear would be trying to explain to them my passion and desire for old cardboard becaue I'm sure that the doctors would not only order a piss test but they'd also order a complete psychiatric evaluation.

Josh - you're very lucky!

Now back to the main topic - I think Leon summed it up pretty good when he mentioned the word "demand". Something to think about is the difference in rarity/scarcity of the Reccius Wagner and a T206 Wagner. That Reccius Wagner is "rare" while the T206 Wagner, in comparison, is very plentiful. The owner of the Reccius Wagner could have kept both but he chose to keep, the not so rare but very expensive T206.

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Posted By: JimB

drc,
We think of Cobb/Drum as a back variation (if indeed there is one) because "T206" was catalogued as one set with 16 brand backs and 3 different series. What if they catalogued the Piedmont 150s as T240 for example, Sweet Cap 150s as T241, all Uzits at T242, etc. ? Though I agree with the way it was catalogued in general, arguments could certainly be made for the cards included in "T206" as actually many different sets by brand or series or both, etc. To some extent the designation as one set is arbitrary.
JimB

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Posted By: J Levine

...I am surrounded by estrogen all day and look forward to seeing my buddy when he stops by. See, as some know already, I work as a 1st grade teacher in an elementary school and am surrounded by 47 women teachers. There are three men on campus only. Even our custodial and support staff are all women. I ran into a parent from my school at a show about a year ago and he stops by every now and then to talk vintage cards. It is indeed a very lucky situation.

Joshua

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Posted By: davidcycleback

I compare card rarity to home runs. The home run totals are printed in black and white, and you still get different answers as to who holds the single season home run record.

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Posted By: Mike H

The next time I catch you two talking about baseball cards at work your both gonna be FIRED!!!

The Boss

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Posted By: J Levine

Sorry, but I have tenure!!

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Posted By: Gilbert Maines

Tenure and rarity. Only 3 out of 47+. Now like Leon says .... if you only could muster high demand.

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Posted By: steve f

Complaining or boasting?

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Posted By: cmoking

IMO, the 1933 Goudey Lajoie is not as rare as people think. I read in an old VBCC where the editor guessed there wre 5-10 of them that existed. This was maybe 8 years ago before the proliferation of PSA and pop reports. He's off by at least a factor of 5. This past April, during the slew of auctions, there were 6 different Lajoies put up for auction.

The Lajoie is rare and pricey due its place in the 1933 Goudey set and relative to all the other cards in the set. It isn't rare compared to the true rarities of baseball cards. It's still a great card, and I just spent a boatload in getting one for my collection, but I wouldn't classify it with the Baltimore News Ruth or other cards of that nature.

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Posted By: Bob

There is no such animal as a T207 Red Cross Walter Johnson. It was issued only with Recruit and (hypothetically because I have never heard of one) Napoleon and the one factory number (I forget which) Anonymous back. The Red Cross T207s were issued on cards with Broadleaf, Cycle and the other factory number Anonymous backs.