Don't be surprised if..... (HOF debate!)

[jimivintage]

As many of you probably know, I've been a long time HOF collector, especially RCs (although I've been admittedly inactive with it for most of this year). Every year though, once discussions start about the next class, I get very excited. I still feel like the Baseball HOF is much more prestigious than that of football or basketball (by far, actually).

We HOF RC collectors (hi, Phil, Derek and others!) also think about who that next guy is going to be. I, for one, like to expand my thinking off the field a bit too, and try and determine baseball executives (pioneers, commissioners, league presidents, and others) that could get in.

So, just for fun, who do you see getting in? Reasons, if any? I know these HOF debates can become tireless at times, but I figured throwing in your thoughts on non-players too might change it up a bit. I'm not sure I would even vote for all these guys, so that's why I'm calling this, "Don't be surprised if...." instead.

So, my list for "Don't be surprised if..." these guys make it into the HOF EVENTUALLY are:

- Bud Selig (Yup, love 'em or hate 'em....he's done a lot to help revolutionize baseball.)

- George Steinbrenner (Ugh! Cleveland Indians purists know he came from Cleveland originally and had interest in buying them in the '70s. Wonder how things would have changed for them!)

- Craig Biggio

- Pete Rose/Shoeless Joe Jackson (They might...they really might. Let's see what happens after Selig is done.)

- Barry Bonds (Not sure if I agree or not, but like I said, "Don't be surprised if...")

- Roger Clemens (See Bonds!)

- Omar Vizquel (In my eyes, if guys like Ozzie Smith and Bill Mazeroski are in...)

- Jim Thome

- Randy Johnson

- John Smoltz

- Pedro Martinez

- Mike Piazza

- Bill James (yup, the saber metrics guy. seriously, somehow this guy will get in. Time magazine has even mentioned him as one of the 100 most influential people in the world. Goes in as a historian/writer/statistician?)

- Terry Francona (too early perhaps....BUT let's pretend he wins a World Series with Cleveland. He takes Boston to 2 WS wins after 80+ years of demise, and then another desperate team to a WS win? Maybe?!?!)

- Mike Scioscia (a stretch here, but he took them to a WS win in 2002, and they're still good even today. What? 30 games over .500 right now? Long tenure at the helm. Probably needs to win another WS though. Dick Williams and Whitey Herzog are in. Why not Mike? Just sayin'!)

- Jim Leyland

I'm sure I've missed some, so maybe I'll edit this list later. I deliberately skipped players currently on MLB rosters on purpose. We can argue Trout, Cabrera, Kershaw, all day long.

Thanks for sticking with me, and observing the long read.

Anyone?

[Steve D]

Another manager I think has a shot is Bruce Bochy.


Steve

[earlywynnfan]

I've said Selig for years.

For players, you forgot Adrian Beltre.

For non-players, I can't understand why Bob Howsam isn't ever discussed. He built the late-60's Cardinals and, of course, the Big Red Machine.

Ken

[Steve D]

What's the feeling about Leo Mazzone's chances?

No coaches have ever been inducted, but what he did with the Braves pitching staff for 20-odd years, I would think, certainly merits consideration.

Steve

[jimivintage]

Originally Posted by earlywynnfan

I've said Selig for years.

For players, you forgot Adrian Beltre.

For non-players, I can't understand why Bob Howsam isn't ever discussed. He built the late-60's Cardinals and, of course, the Big Red Machine.

Ken

Hi Ken,

Good point on Bob Howsam. On Adrian Beltre, though, I mentioned above that I deliberately chose to not mention current players. "Off the record though", I'm not sure he belongs there. I'm sure he'll get consideration with a few votes, but personally I need to look at his lifetime stats before I make a determination. Although, will they let a guy who doesn't let other people touch his head in?

Jimi

[Peter_Spaeth]

Vlad Guerrero.

[BradH]

Originally Posted by Steve D

What's the feeling about Leo Mazzone's chances?

Quite frankly, zero. Ok, maybe nothing is ever "zero," so I'll peg it at 1%.

But on a Braves note, I'd guess John Schuerholz gets very strong consideration in 2016 (for the class of 2017). He will be riding the wave of Cox, Glavine, Maddux and (probably by then) Smoltz. When Pat Gillick got in it became just a matter of time for Schuerholz, who is considered the winningest GM in history and built up World Series champions in both Kansas City and Atlanta.

I agree that most of the guys on jimivintage's original list will get in eventually. Not saying I agree that they SHOULD get in (see Biggio), but I think they'll probably all get in some day. It would be historic if Biggio doesn't get in next year, based on how close he was this year. No one has ever been that close and then missed it the following year.

Assuming he doesn't take another job in the next couple years, I think Leyland is the next manager to go in and I'm sure Bochy will be there some day too.

Just my two cents.

[bn2cardz]

Originally Posted by jimivintage

- Omar Vizquel (In my eyes, if guys like Ozzie Smith and Bill Mazeroski are in...)

I understand using Mazeroski as an example, but I get tired of O.Smith being used as an example of a low end HOFer. He isn't "Top Tier" meaning he doesn't have amazing Offensive to back his amazing Defense. Yet it seems that people use him as a reference point because there is no respect for his defense.

Ozzie Smith:
War - 76.5 6th
War7 - 43.3 15th
Jaws - 59.4 8th
dWAR - 43.4 1st

Omar Vizquel:
War - 45.3 472nd
War7 - 26.6 60th
Jaws - 36 54th
dWAR - 28.4 10th

They don't even compare.

[jimivintage]

Originally Posted by bn2cardz

I understand using Mazeroski as an example, but I get tired of O.Smith being used as an example of a low end HOFer. He isn't "Top Tier" meaning he doesn't have amazing Offensive to back his amazing Defense. Yet it seems that people use him as a reference point because there is no respect for his defense.

Ozzie Smith:
War - 76.5 6th
War7 - 43.3 15th
Jaws - 59.4 8th
dWAR - 43.4 1st

Omar Vizquel:
War - 45.3 472nd
War7 - 26.6 60th
Jaws - 36 54th
dWAR - 28.4 10th

They don't even compare.

All good points. I was shooting stuff off the top of my head. Like it or not, Ozzie and Omar have always been better known for their defense. And also, like it or not, even though I think Bill James gets in the Hall eventually, I'm not so sure that today's writers are using his sabermetrics to determine their place in Cooperstown. They probably should!! They are still using outdated stats like Wins and Losses for pitchers to determine HOF status and All-Star game selections. Ugh!

For what it's worth, I do believe Ozzie Smith is a worthy HOFer....I just meant that Omar Vizquel (also known for his superb defense) will eventually get in. No disrespect to Ozzie or you.

[Steve D]

I agree with Brad H on John Schuerholz and Jim Leyland. Another one I wouldn't be at all surprised to see make it is Danny Murtaugh.


Steve

[jimivintage]

I can't believe I left off Bruce Bochy.

How about Billy Beane?

[brewing]

Martinez, Johnson, and maybe Biggio get on this year. I do not believe the others mentioned (besides Thome) get in within the next 5 years.

[Brian Van Horn]

Oh, just for debate Howie Haak.

[packs]

May take a while but I think Jorge Posada gets in.

[UnVme7]

Originally Posted by jimivintage

Hi Ken,

Good point on Bob Howsam. On Adrian Beltre, though, I mentioned above that I deliberately chose to not mention current players. "Off the record though", I'm not sure he belongs there. I'm sure he'll get consideration with a few votes, but personally I need to look at his lifetime stats before I make a determination. Although, will they let a guy who doesn't let other people touch his head in?

Jimi

Regarding Adrian Beltre-- I posted this in another thread but Beltre is about 24 hits away from 2,600, and 7 hr's from 400. Take a look at the guys with at least 2,500 hits and 400 hr's. Very impressive....

[UnVme7]

Non active guys for me are:

Randy Johnson
Biggio
Pedro
Smoltz
Pudge
Chipper
Vizquel
Jeff Kent(I know no one likes him but compared to other 2nd baseman, tough to argue)
Piazza
Griffey
Vlad
Thome
And I really like Tim Raines.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Guerrero
449-1496-.318 with 2590 hits
162 game average 34-113
10 100 RBI seasons
4 200 hit seaons
9 time all star
HOFer by 3 of 4 baseball reference metrics

And people are talking about Adam Dunn and Omar Vizqel?

[jimivintage]

Originally Posted by UnVme7

Non active guys for me are:

Randy Johnson
Biggio
Pedro
Smoltz
Pudge
Chipper
Vizquel
Jeff Kent(I know no one likes him but compared to other 2nd baseman, tough to argue)
Piazza
Griffey
Vlad
Thome
And I really like Tim Raines.

Again, all off the top of my head in the original post....plus I was trying to think "outside the box" with non-players. So, admittedly, I failed to list a few others that have a shot at the HOF. So in addition to that thread, I'd also pick:

- Vlad (most definitely)
- Griffey (duh!! Forgot about him.)
- Pudge
- Chipper

I used to pull Kent and Raines cards, but I think Kent gets left off ultimately. I like Raines, too, but isn't he off the ballot now that they went to 10 years instead of 15? Or did he get "grandfathered" in for the duration of the 15 original years?

Jimi

[UnVme7]

Originally Posted by jimivintage

Again, all off the top of my head in the original post....plus I was trying to think "outside the box" with non-players. So, admittedly, I failed to list a few others that have a shot at the HOF. So in addition to that thread, I'd also pick:

- Vlad (most definitely)
- Griffey (duh!! Forgot about him.)
- Pudge
- Chipper

I used to pull Kent and Raines cards, but I think Kent gets left off ultimately. I like Raines, too, but isn't he off the ballot now that they went to 10 years instead of 15? Or did he get "grandfathered" in for the duration of the 15 original years?

Jimi

Oh I know. That's just my list. :-)

Correct, I believe they are grandfathered in, so he has a little while longer. It will be tough.

[packs]

I loved Vlad.

[ooo-ribay]

Originally Posted by Steve D

What's the feeling about Leo Mazzone's chances?

No coaches have ever been inducted, but what he did with the Braves pitching staff for 20-odd years, I would think, certainly merits consideration.

Steve

But with the O's he didn't do much.....so was it Leo or was it the talent he had to work with? And by "work," I mean rock back and forth

[earlywynnfan]

I agree with Vlad completely.

I'm also a huge Vizquel fan, I'm heartened to hear many who didn't get the chance to see him every day pull for him.

[ooo-ribay]

Originally Posted by earlywynnfan

I've said Selig for years.

I hope I'm dead before that happens.

"No Bonds, no Rose, no Clemens.....but we've got Bud."

[jimivintage]

Originally Posted by ooo-ribay

But with the O's he didn't do much.....so was it Leo or was it the talent he had to work with? And by "work," I mean rock back and forth

Couldn't we say that about most managers though?

Joe Torre? He's in, but was it the budget and players that made him a HOFer?

For football, is it Tom Brady who put Bill Belichick on the map, or vise versa?

:P

I know what you're saying though.

[jimivintage]

Originally Posted by earlywynnfan

I agree with Vlad completely.

I'm also a huge Vizquel fan, I'm heartened to hear many who didn't get the chance to see him every day pull for him.

I am a huge Vizquel fan, too. With that being said, I've seen a ton of American League games....which means I only saw highlight films of Ozzie. Ozzie happened to be my brother's favorite player growing up though. We were a very defensive-minded family.

Jimi

[ooo-ribay]

Originally Posted by UnVme7

Non active guys for me are:

Randy Johnson
Biggio
Pedro
Smoltz
Pudge
Chipper
Vizquel
Jeff Kent(I know no one likes him but compared to other 2nd baseman, tough to argue)
Piazza
Griffey
Vlad
Thome
And I really like Tim Raines.

If the voters keep Bonds out, I would hope they don't look the other way on Pudge and Piazza.

and, altho we'll never know and he'll always deny it, I have always suspected Kent may have used.

[ooo-ribay]

Originally Posted by jimivintage

Couldn't we say that about most managers though?

Joe Torre? He's in, but was it the budget and players that made him a HOFer?


I know what you're saying though.

Totally agree and I hate that. Joe won exactly ONE Division crown and nothing else in the 15 years prior to NY. La Russa won with the guys the HOF is blackballing. Don't get me started....

[UnVme7]

Originally Posted by ooo-ribay

If the voters keep Bonds out, I would hope they don't look the other way on Pudge and Piazza.

and, altho we'll never know and he'll always deny it, I have always suspected Kent may have used.

I hear ya. As for steroids with those 3, Piazza is on the top of the list for me, then Pudge, then Kent. I personally think Kent is clean, just do, but I understand what you mean. Do I think Pudge did? Probably, but there isn't much physical evidence that proves this. Do I think Piazza did? Yep, but suspicion isn't good enough for me, nor is it fair to the player.

[chris6net]

Gil Hodges

[ooo-ribay]

Originally Posted by UnVme7

I hear ya. As for steroids with those 3, Piazza is on the top of the list for me, then Pudge, then Kent. I personally think Kent is clean, just do, but I understand what you mean. Do I think Pudge did? Probably, but there isn't much physical evidence that proves this. Do I think Piazza did? Yep, but suspicion isn't good enough for me, nor is it fair to the player.

Agreed....suspicion isn't fair.....but not everyone had BOTH overzealous Feds AND two bank rolled newspaper guys after them. If you never really looked, how can you say, one way or another?

Bonds was my guy...I won't deny he used and I won't call it a "witch hunt"...but I will say no other player has had a tenth of the resources directed at him that Bonds did. OK....I'll get off my soapbox.

Carry on.

[jimivintage]

Originally Posted by chris6net

Gil Hodges

I won't necessarily disagree with you on whether he deserves to get in, but if he hasn't yet, and he hasn't played since the '60s....he ain't getting' in. The Veteran's Committee has kept him off all these years, so I can't see that they'd all of a sudden think he is one.

[sago]

Of those already listed, Griffey, Johnson, and Vlad. The Mets fan in me cannot say Chipper Jones, even though he probably deserves it.

[CobbvLajoie1910]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Vlad Guerrero.

+1. Loved Vlad

Very down with Vizquel. O is a HOFer (Sorry Ozzie, I'm taking Omar at SS).

Too, add Albert Belle. Its criminal neither get the love they deserve.
AB was THE most devastating power hitter of the 90s (save maybe Jr., or Bonds).

Rock Raines is incredibly under-appreciated. I think he eventually gets in.

[z28jd]

I definitely think Ivan Rodriguez was juicing, also there is only one "Pudge" and it's Fisk. When they announced the new testing standards, he came back to camp looking like a bobblehead and said he dropped weight to stay in better shape. He then had his lowest HR total in ten years and lowest SLG since he was 21, then got worse each year after.

[UnVme7]

Originally Posted by z28jd

I definitely think Ivan Rodriguez was juicing, also there is only one "Pudge" and it's Fisk. When they announced the new testing standards, he came back to camp looking like a bobblehead and said he dropped weight to stay in better shape. He then had his lowest HR total in ten years and lowest SLG since he was 21, then got worse each year after.

Maybe so, but I've never seen him on a list, never heard him in Canseco's books(which he was a teammate with for a while and we all know he would've been in there if he did anything), and never failed a test of any sort to my knowledge. My apologies if I didn't read anything on this. If you have an article about him taking steroids, send me a pm on it because I would be interested in reading. His defense alone was incredible. Take as many steroids as you want, you aren't getting that kind of D. That many hits as a catcher is unheard of nowadays.

And I know what year you're talking about when he dropped the weight. Steroids? Maybe, but we don't know that either. Maybe he changed his workout routine, maybe he was sick and lost some weight, or maybe it was around the time he switched trainers. Who knows, but looking at a guy and saying yep, he took steroids, look at his weight. Yeah, that's not quite fair.

[ooo-ribay]

Originally Posted by UnVme7

Maybe so, but I've never seen him on a list, never heard him in Canseco's books(which he was a teammate with for a while and we all know he would've been in there if he did anything), and never failed a test of any sort to my knowledge. My apologies if I didn't read anything on this. If you have an article about him taking steroids, send me a pm on it because I would be interested in reading. His defense alone was incredible. Take as many steroids as you want, you aren't getting that kind of D. That many hits as a catcher is unheard of nowadays.

And I know what year you're talking about when he dropped the weight. Steroids? Maybe, but we don't know that either. Maybe he changed his workout routine, maybe he was sick and lost some weight, or maybe it was around the time he switched trainers. Who knows, but looking at a guy and saying yep, he took steroids, look at his weight. Yeah, that's not quite fair.

According to Wiki (gotta be true, right? ), Canseco did claim to have injected Pudge.

A LOT of these steroid guys were great players. I say let them all in. To say it's not fair to assume a guy DID steroids is, to me, just as unfair as assuming a guy did NOT (see: Rodriguez, A and Palmiero, R).

Bagwell had the same weight loss and a similar, lame explanation.

[Tabe]

Among non-players, the top guy is Marvin Miller. Nobody else is even close as a candidate.

[majordanby]

i think tim raines will eventually get in.

mariano rivera will get in. does trevor hoffman have a good shot?

[almostdone]

I think Hoffman should be in. If he played in a slightly different era, at least not at the same time as Rivera, or in a bigger market he wouldn't be in debate.
Clearly Rivera is the greatest closer of all time but I think Hoffman is an easy second best with third best a ways back. Just my opinion.
Drew

[ooo-ribay]

Originally Posted by almostdone

I think Hoffman should be in. If he played in a slightly different era, at least not at the same time as Rivera, or in a bigger market he wouldn't be in debate.
Clearly Rivera is the greatest closer of all time but I think Hoffman is an easy second best with third best a ways back. Just my opinion.
Drew

Being a Yankee during their good times will always help you.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Raines didn't hit for power and played mostly for unglamorous teams. That hurts a lot. Too, his numbers don't seem to bear out election at least based on the Baseball Reference metrics where he falls short in every category.

Hall Of Fame StatisticsPlayer rank in (·)


Black Ink Batting - 20 (107), Average HOFer ≈ 27

Gray Ink Batting - 114 (182), Average HOFer ≈ 144

Hall of Fame Monitor Batting - 90 (193), Likely HOFer ≈ 100

Hall of Fame Standards Batting - 47 (103), Average HOFer ≈ 50

[Peter_Spaeth]

Hoffman rates pretty low among relief pitchers under the JAWS metric which is based on WAR for career and peak 7 years. He is 21st among relief pitchers. 1-4 are Eckersley Rivera Wilhelm Gossage so the metric isn't a total crock.

[UnVme7]

Originally Posted by ooo-ribay

According to Wiki (gotta be true, right? ), Canseco did claim to have injected Pudge.

A LOT of these steroid guys were great players. I say let them all in. To say it's not fair to assume a guy DID steroids is, to me, just as unfair as assuming a guy did NOT (see: Rodriguez, A and Palmiero, R).

Bagwell had the same weight loss and a similar, lame explanation.

I just saw that. Guess I don't remember reading it in the book.

[robw]

Bill James is a lock...just a matter of when. Whether you agree with his philosophies or not, he has changed baseball immensely and is arguably the most influential person in baseball in the past 20-30 years. Every MLB team now evaluates players differently based on his evaluation and statistics.

On a separate note, if anyone does own any of his original Abstracts from 1977-1981, I'm an interested buyer. Let me know. Thanks.

Rob

[h2oya311]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Guerrero
449-1496-.318 with 2590 hits
162 game average 34-113
10 100 RBI seasons
4 200 hit seaons
9 time all star
HOFer by 3 of 4 baseball reference metrics

And people are talking about Adam Dunn and Omar Vizqel?

And one of THE strongest arms in baseball (ever). Very few tried to go the extra base against him. Don't believe me? Look up the word "canon" in the dictionary.

[wolf441]

Buck O'Neil as a player/scout/ambassador for the game and I think it's a crime that they didn't do it while he was still alive. One reason why Selig should NOT get in. I know he doesn't do the voting, but he could have made it happen if he wanted to...

[howard38]

Originally Posted by UnVme7

Maybe so, but I've never seen him on a list, never heard him in Canseco's books(which he was a teammate with for a while and we all know he would've been in there if he did anything), and never failed a test of any sort to my knowledge. My apologies if I didn't read anything on this. If you have an article about him taking steroids, send me a pm on it because I would be interested in reading. His defense alone was incredible. Take as many steroids as you want, you aren't getting that kind of D. That many hits as a catcher is unheard of nowadays.

And I know what year you're talking about when he dropped the weight. Steroids? Maybe, but we don't know that either. Maybe he changed his workout routine, maybe he was sick and lost some weight, or maybe it was around the time he switched trainers. Who knows, but looking at a guy and saying yep, he took steroids, look at his weight. Yeah, that's not quite fair.

"Only God knows."
That was Ivan Rodriguez's response when he was asked if he thought his name was on the list of 100 or so players who tested positive in 2003 testing. It's not proof that he juiced but it's an odd answer if he didn't. Also, Canseco has said that he personally injected him and A-Rod said he witnessed Pudge using PEDs. The testimony of those two doofuses is certainly not enough to convict him but combined w/Pudge's own cryptic words and his muscle gain and subsequent muscle loss there is a compelling case against him.

[darwinbulldog]

Originally Posted by robw

Bill James is a lock...just a matter of when. Whether you agree with his philosophies or not, he has changed baseball immensely and is arguably the most influential person in baseball in the past 20-30 years. Every MLB team now evaluates players differently based on his evaluation and statistics.

I'd like to see him go in with Bobby Grich.

[packs]

Couldn't Bill James be inducted at any time? Or are there special election years for people like him?

[robw]

Originally Posted by packs

Couldn't Bill James be inducted at any time? Or are there special election years for people like him?

Not entirely sure, but found this on baseball-reference.com:

Veterans Committee

General Summary: A group of Hall of Fame members and others charged with the induction of players who were not voted in by the BBWAA, as well as Negro League players and non-playing personnel (including managers, owners, and executives). To be enshrined, players must be named on at least 75% of the Committee members' ballots.