Ohtani ROY, really?????

[savedfrommyspokes]

Originally Posted by rats60

Ohtani OPS+ 152 Andujar OPS+ 126. Ohtani was a much better hitter than Andujar. He just didn't get the at bats because the Angels saw the value of him pitching. Ohtani deserves the award because of his pitching and his superior hitting.

It is a catch 22. If Ohtani wasn't such a good pitcher, he would have gotten more at bats and put up better counting stats. When Ohtani became a regular DH, he hit .328/.423/.672/1.083 in August. In September. 310/.371/.632/1.003. Andujar had 0 months of 1+ OPS and only 1 month of even .9 OPS. The voters saw that Ohtani was the superior hitter who also brought value as a pitcher with a 126 ERA+ and 11 K/9. He had a historic season and that is why he got 25 of 30 votes.

No doubt once Ohtani was moved up in the line up for the last two months of the season he hit well as he was seeing better pitches to hit and was not being pitched around.

I guess my whole point behind this thread was that there appears to be some sort of bias by the voters...if Ohtani wins ROY in '18 with the abbreviated (but solid) stats he put up how in the world does Sanchez not win in '16 (over an 11-7 pitcher) with stats quite similar to Ohtani ?

[rats60]

Originally Posted by savedfrommyspokes

No doubt once Ohtani was moved up in the line up for the last two months of the season he hit well as he was seeing better pitches to hit and was not being pitched around.

I guess my whole point behind this thread was that there appears to be some sort of bias by the voters...if Ohtani wins ROY in '18 with the abbreviated (but solid) stats he put up how in the world does Sanchez not win in '16 (over an 11-7 pitcher) with stats quite similar to Ohtani ?

Ohtani's best month was August when Trout was on the DL most of the month. They were in the line up together for only the last 7 games of the month. Justin Upton, a .257 hitter with an OPS+ 122 wasn't providing protection for him either as Ohtani hit behind him the whole month of August. Hit hit ahead of Trout once all season. When he started hitting ahead of Upton some in September, his stats were slightly worse.

These are the OPS+ of the other hitters in the Angels every day line up, 71, 92, 95, 109, 62, 80. Their main reserves were all below 100. The Angels line up was pretty much garbage outside of Trout and Upton. Ohtani wasn't getting better pitches because of where he hit. Gregorious had an OPS+ of 120. 5 of the other 8 Yankees regulars had an OPS+ of 118 or above and 3 reserves were above 100. Andujar had much more protection in the Yankees line up no matter where he he than Ohtani did, even the few game that Upton hit behind him. Nice theory, but it doesn't hold water.

A better theory is that Ohtani batted in 34 of the Angels first 85 games and 70 of their last 77 games. So when he became an every day player, he got in a rhythm and produced better numbers. The bottom line is that he was a much better hitter over the whole season, even though he was a part time hitter for more than half of the season.

As far as 2016 AL ROY, Fulmer 5.2 WAR Sanchez 3.0 WAR. You may not like it, but we are in the era of advanced stats and voters are using them when voting for awards.

[savedfrommyspokes]

Originally Posted by rats60

Ohtani's best month was August when Trout was on the DL most of the month. They were in the line up together for only the last 7 games of the month. Justin Upton, a .257 hitter with an OPS+ 122 wasn't providing protection for him either as Ohtani hit behind him the whole month of August. Hit hit ahead of Trout once all season. When he started hitting ahead of Upton some in September, his stats were slightly worse.



These are the OPS+ of the other hitters in the Angels every day line up, 71, 92, 95, 109, 62, 80. Their main reserves were all below 100. The Angels line up was pretty much garbage outside of Trout and Upton. Ohtani wasn't getting better pitches because of where he hit. Gregorious had an OPS+ of 120. 5 of the other 8 Yankees regulars had an OPS+ of 118 or above and 3 reserves were above 100. Andujar had much more protection in the Yankees line up no matter where he he than Ohtani did, even the few game that Upton hit behind him. Nice theory, but it doesn't hold water.

A better theory is that Ohtani batted in 34 of the Angels first 85 games and 70 of their last 77 games. So when he became an every day player, he got in a rhythm and produced better numbers. The bottom line is that he was a much better hitter over the whole season, even though he was a part time hitter for more than half of the season.

As far as 2016 AL ROY, Fulmer 5.2 WAR Sanchez 3.0 WAR. You may not like it, but we are in the era of advanced stats and voters are using them when voting for awards.

So using WAR as a comparison for the 2016 results is okay but not in the 2018 comparison because it doesn't help with the explanation? Okay. Since Ohtani won as a DH (not a pitcher), the voters in 2018 didn't exactly use the advanced stats (his offensive WAR).

Everyone is entitled to their own theory about why Ohtani started hitting(again) in August.... Through June he was batting .289, then slumped in July before getting back on track in Aug-Sept. Why does any rookie start off hitting well then begin to slump? ....pitchers didn't start off with sufficient scouting for Ohtani (in spring training he didn't hit well). Once there is sufficient scouting, the pitchers/fielders make their adjustments. From there is up to the batter to adjust again and/or the manager to get make line-up adjustments. If the theory is he got hot in August because of regular playing time, that is not exactly true as he played sporadically starting at DH in only 14 games and appeared as PH in 10.


I'll stick with he saw better pitches later in the season than what he saw in July (post pitcher adjustments) because of moving up in the line-up and then having a 30 HR guy batting behind him later .


Andujar had Didi for less than a month last season batting behind him. For a few weeks he had Torres behind him before Torres got hot and subsequently moved up in the order. Most of the season he had players like Tyler Austin, Torreyes, Romine, Bird, Etc batting behind him. Not exactly the league's strongest batters.

Either way, IMO there is a bias for southern CA teams with voting for these awards. If Ohtani stays in the ML as a batter, I believe he will have a great career.

[Peter_Spaeth]

The intangibles were massively in Ohtani's favor, even if you question the stats, and those weren't so clearly against him that you can really take issue with the vote IMO.

[rats60]

Originally Posted by savedfrommyspokes

So using WAR as a comparison for the 2016 results is okay but not in the 2018 comparison because it doesn't help with the explanation? Okay. Since Ohtani won as a DH (not a pitcher), the voters in 2018 didn't exactly use the advanced stats (his offensive WAR).

I am not sure how you came up with this. The voters did use WAR in 2018. Ohtani 3.9 WAR Andujar 2.2 WAR. Lol at Yankees fans complaining about bias.

[packs]

Andujar's WAR is knocked for his defense, which Ohtani didn't play either. His oWAR was almost 2 points higher than Ohtani's.

[savedfrommyspokes]

Originally Posted by rats60

I am not sure how you came up with this. The voters did use WAR in 2018. Ohtani 3.9 WAR Andujar 2.2 WAR. Lol at Yankees fans complaining about bias.

Recapping what has already been discussed: As a DH Ohtani has an OFFENSIVE WAR is 2.7. Andujar has an OFFENSIVE WAR of 4.6.

Unless I am mistaken, a 4.6 OFFENSIVE WAR is greater than a 2.7 Offensive WAR.

If you insist upon using WAR to compare these two players, use the one measurement that is comparable for both players, offensive WAR.

They are both good players...one had a great season with minimal hype, the other had great hype and a pretty decent season. If hype is enough to win a subjective award, then great.

Again, the bias is obvious....a Yankee in 2016 had a similar partial season to Ohtani in 2018 yet loses the award to an 11-7 pitcher.

In another day or two nobody will even care.

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

How do you explain just ignoring the pitching? You act like it doesn't matter.

[savedfrommyspokes]

Originally Posted by Aquarian Sports Cards

How do you explain just ignoring the pitching? You act like it doesn't matter.

First, on MLB's website he is listed as a "DH", not a "DH/P" on the list on AL ROY winners.

Second, in just the 10 games he started, he was a pedestrian 4-2. He barely exceeded the 50 inning limit to no longer qualify for rookie status as a pitcher by throwing 51.2 innings . If he was a closer who threw around 50 innings but had 30+ saves and a low ERA, then great consider the pitching for this award, but he was a starter.

Is it really fair to judge a starting pitcher on a mere 10 starts?

Do I think the hype of him attempting to be a two-way player helped him with the votes for this award? ....... Absolutely


If he sticks with hitting, instead of pitching, he will be a great hitter.....if he has a full season with the bat in his hands next year, there is no doubt in my mind he will be a better hitter than any of the other sophomores.

[rats60]

Originally Posted by savedfrommyspokes

Recapping what has already been discussed: As a DH Ohtani has an OFFENSIVE WAR is 2.7. Andujar has an OFFENSIVE WAR of 4.6.

Unless I am mistaken, a 4.6 OFFENSIVE WAR is greater than a 2.7 Offensive WAR.

If you insist upon using WAR to compare these two players, use the one measurement that is comparable for both players, offensive WAR.

They are both good players...one had a great season with minimal hype, the other had great hype and a pretty decent season. If hype is enough to win a subjective award, then great.

Again, the bias is obvious....a Yankee in 2016 had a similar partial season to Ohtani in 2018 yet loses the award to an 11-7 pitcher.

In another day or two nobody will even care.

Offensive WAR is irrelevant, oWAR is a counting stat. Ohtani's counting stats are all going to be lower because he had fewer plate appearances. Ohtani had fewer plate appearances because he is just as talented as a pitcher and brought tremendous value at a pitcher. Despite his fewer PA, he was a better hitter than Andujar with an OPS+ of 152 to Andujar's 126.

Andujar had a decent season, Ohtani had a historic season. Ohtani had an ERA+ 126 and K/9 11. Of pitchers with 10 starts, that has been done 39 times in baseball history and only the 4th time a rookie has done that. His OPS+ of 152 is 21st all time for rookies with at least 350 PA. Of the 13 players that did it in the ROY award era, 9 won ROY and the other 4 2nd, including Rico Carty who finished 2nd to Dick Allen with OPS+ of 162 to 161.

There is no bias other than that of Yankee fans who think that Sanchez and Andujar deserved ROY. Ohtani isn't remotely comparable to Sanchez. Ohtani played a full season, just neither as a full time pitcher or full time hitter, but as a combination of both and led AL rookies in WAR. Sanchez was a distant 2nd to Michael Fulmer in WAR. In both cases the player who had the higher WAR won ROY as they deserved. Claiming inferior players should have won just shows bias.

[savedfrommyspokes]

Originally Posted by rats60

There is no bias other than that of Yankee fans who think that Sanchez and Andujar deserved ROY. Ohtani isn't remotely comparable to Sanchez. Ohtani played a full season, just neither as a full time pitcher or full time hitter, but as a combination of both and led AL rookies in WAR. Sanchez was a distant 2nd to Michael Fulmer in WAR. In both cases the player who had the higher WAR won ROY as they deserved. Claiming inferior players should have won just shows bias.

We can debate, compare apples to oranges and disagree all day....nothing is going to change the fact that Andujar had a strong season but did not win this award (which no one will remember in a week anyway) due to the hype surrounding another player who had almost as good of a season.

In addition, is Ohtani a real rookie anyway? FIVE years in the NPB?

He maybe a MLB rookie by qualifications, but clearly no rookie at the top level.

With five years already under his belt, Ohtani should have had a much better season than Andujar did with no top level experience.


As far as comparing Sanchez and Ohtani and their partial seasons, they are quite similar, especially percentage wise. You can see how they compared to your previous example of McCovey winning in his shortened season.

..............g...ab...r..h..2b.HR.RBI.BA..OBP..SL G...OPS
Sanchez 53 229 34 60 12 20 42 .299 .376 .657 1.032
Ohtani. 104 326 59 93 21 22 61 .285 .361 .564 .925

McCovey 52 192 32 68 9 13 38 .354 .429 .656 1.085


If you feel Andujar and Sanchez's rookie performances are inferior when compared to Ohtani and Fulmer's MLB "rookie" results respectively , you must be........

[packs]

Originally Posted by rats60

Offensive WAR is irrelevant, oWAR is a counting stat. Ohtani's counting stats are all going to be lower because he had fewer plate appearances. Ohtani had fewer plate appearances because he is just as talented as a pitcher and brought tremendous value at a pitcher. Despite his fewer PA, he was a better hitter than Andujar with an OPS+ of 152 to Andujar's 126.

Andujar had a decent season, Ohtani had a historic season. Ohtani had an ERA+ 126 and K/9 11. Of pitchers with 10 starts, that has been done 39 times in baseball history and only the 4th time a rookie has done that. His OPS+ of 152 is 21st all time for rookies with at least 350 PA. Of the 13 players that did it in the ROY award era, 9 won ROY and the other 4 2nd, including Rico Carty who finished 2nd to Dick Allen with OPS+ of 162 to 161.

There is no bias other than that of Yankee fans who think that Sanchez and Andujar deserved ROY. Ohtani isn't remotely comparable to Sanchez. Ohtani played a full season, just neither as a full time pitcher or full time hitter, but as a combination of both and led AL rookies in WAR. Sanchez was a distant 2nd to Michael Fulmer in WAR. In both cases the player who had the higher WAR won ROY as they deserved. Claiming inferior players should have won just shows bias.

I don't agree with your assessment of Ohtani being a better hitter. Andujar had over 250 more official at bats and still finished with a significantly higher batting average. There is no way to project Ohtani slugging what he did over another 250 at bats, nor can you project batting average either. If Ohtani hit 30 homers and batted 260 I'd rather have the 297 hitter who got me 27 homers. Andujar had more doubles than Ohtani had homers and doubles combined. Then factor his home run power. He had the better season at the plate hands down.

[D. Bergin]

I knew Ohtani was going to win ROY as soon as the talking heads started talking about combining his pitching and hitting WAR.

I mean Andujar had more doubles then Ohtani had total extra base hits.

Lack of walks was the biggest thing that hurt Andujar on his overall hitting metrics compared to Ohtani.

Andujar got absolutely throttled by his defensive WAR unfortunately. Who knew how much things had changed. Back in 1978 Butch Hobson committed 43 errors and held an .899 FP and he got docked -1.00 on his defensive WAR.

Andujar commits 15 errors with a .948 FP and he gets docked -2.2.

Ohtani got docked 0 WAR points for playing absolutely no defense. I guess no defense is better then below average defense.

I question how valuable a two way star is, when you have to find somebody to replace him in the lineup 60 games a year due to injuries, limitations on his schedule, lack of an actual position, and an inevitable Tommy John surgery.

He's a hell of a talent, but having to constantly construct your team baseball strategy around his availability seems pretty silly to me.

Ultimately however, ROY really doesn't mean a whole lot. It's just a title. Hell, Walt Weiss won the award once upon a time, simply on his defense. Barring injuries, Gleyber Torres likely becomes the most valuable player of the 3 guys in the AL running this year.