Heritage prices are revealing of market (already)

[BBB]

Not a huge shock that top condition post war is outrunning prewar.

Though, I'm surprised that a Reggie Jackson RC PSA 9 is currently going for more than a 1915 CJ WaJo PSA 9.

Sure there's a ton of time left on the auction. Still, this seems way out of alignment. Will the Pre war cards never get a bump? Are the names now truly ancient history as opposed to when I was a kid and these were the legendary players of my fathers and grandfathers generation?

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[Steve D]

Hush.....shush.......

We don't need pre-war card prices to go Bat-Shit-Crazy like post-war cards have!




Steve

[Sean]

Originally Posted by Steve D

Hush.....shush.......

We don't need pre-war card prices to go Bat-Shit-Crazy like post-war cards have!




Steve

Yeah, not until I start selling.

[Bram99]

I think the Reggie may just have more chasers right now, but I can't believe that demand is durable. It's about scarcity. The pre-war cards have had a higher percentage of the full total population found, and if great condition, already graded. High sale prices like the Reggie will cause more submissions of the card - there are many more out there than the pre-war cards. More graded Reggie RC 9's will cause the price to go down. Pre-war is the better bet for long-term value in my opinion.

[JustinD]

The post war is in a ridiculous boom right now that will not last IMHO. These have numerous precedents of prior boom and busts, all material things follow these rules.

The buying habits of people are fickle and change with the winds. While I do believe the long term investment (even though it is my preferred collection) is leaning toward poor future values on prewar as the interest in those players will wane as the the baby boom generation thins and post war will stay on more steady ground longer. If you are hoping for a temporary boom to get a good ROI on a prewar collection, there will likely be at least a few in the next 10-15 years before the demand from the current largest contingent of prewar collectors (baby boomers) becomes smaller over time.

My personal beliefs are that the majority of cards and sports collectibles are in a unsustainable boom right now. Once the investors drop out and move to the next fad and it is back to a limited actual collector market, thus bringing supply and demand closer in line prices will drop exponentially. I have slowed my purchases as I strongly believe this. I feel a market correction will be within the next few years and I am young enough to be patient. I would rather pause and increase my purchase power at a lower price point.

[frankbmd]

Originally Posted by Steve D

Hush.....shush.......

We don't need pre-war card prices to go Bat-Shit-Crazy like post-war cards have!




Steve

So when the Bat-Shit hits the fan, it's time to sell.

Are there any chiropterologists on the Board?

[bravos4evr]

Originally Posted by JustinD

The post war is in a ridiculous boom right now that will not last IMHO. These have numerous precedents of prior boom and busts, all material things follow these rules.

The buying habits of people are fickle and change with the winds. While I do believe the long term investment (even though it is my preferred collection) is leaning toward poor future values on prewar as the interest in those players will wane as the the baby boom generation thins and post war will stay on more steady ground longer. If you are hoping for a temporary boom to get a good ROI on a prewar collection, there will likely be at least a few in the next 10-15 years before the demand from the current largest contingent of prewar collectors (baby boomers) becomes smaller over time.

My personal beliefs are that the majority of cards and sports collectibles are in a unsustainable boom right now. Once the investors drop out and move to the next fad and it is back to a limited actual collector market, thus bringing supply and demand closer in line prices will drop exponentially. I have slowed my purchases as I strongly believe this. I feel a market correction will be within the next few years and I am young enough to be patient. I would rather pause and increase my purchase power at a lower price point.

I think you are half right. I think the CRAZY prices on some post war stuff won't last, but I think the higher prices in general, are caused by the boomers and post boomers getting older and having more disposable income to spend on their idol's cards. I doubt a PSA 9 Rose rookies will stay at $150k (or wtvr) but I think that the prices will stabilize more over time and remain high (as the scarcity of higher grade cards won't increase much, unlike junk era to now, which will push some of the more modern collectors into pre 80's eventually)

[JustinD]

Originally Posted by bravos4evr

I think you are half right. I think the CRAZY prices on some post war stuff won't last, but I think the higher prices in general, are caused by the boomers and post boomers getting older and having more disposable income to spend on their idol's cards. I doubt a PSA 9 Rose rookies will stay at $150k (or wtvr) but I think that the prices will stabilize more over time and remain high (as the scarcity of higher grade cards won't increase much, unlike junk era to now, which will push some of the more modern collectors into pre 80's eventually)

Well I think you more agreed than half right,

I was talking about prewar and basically agree on post. Although it depends on where you see the price stabilization. In my opinion a reasonable price considering supply and production for a psa 9 rose would be 10k plus, which to me seems a tremendously high price for a 63. A mid grade should be in the couple hundred area. If I paid 100k now for something I could only sell for 10-11 in three years, I would be pretty bummed.

That's beanie baby ROI.

I also have into account the boomers have around 15 years until they start to fade like the ww2 generation. Time takes us all. It is indeterminate if the x and y generation can supply enough collectors to maintain values on post war pre-80. The millennial generation of my son has (for now it seems) a short attention span and may never get excited about the players of the past. It's a coin toss.

[FourStrikes]

Originally Posted by JustinD

Well I think you more agreed than half right,

I was talking about prewar and basically agree on post. Although it depends on where you see the price stabilization. In my opinion a reasonable price considering supply and production for a psa 9 rose would be 10k plus, which to me seems a tremendously high price for a 63. A mid grade should be in the couple hundred area. If I paid 100k now for something I could only sell for 10-11 in three years, I would be pretty bummed.

That's beanie baby ROI.

I also have into account the boomers have around 15 years until they start to fade like the ww2 generation. Time takes us all. It is indeterminate if the x and y generation can supply enough collectors to maintain values on post war pre-80. The millennial generation of my son has (for now it seems) a short attention span and may never get excited about the players of the past. It's a coin toss.

yup.

[Steve D]

Originally Posted by bravos4evr

I think you are half right. I think the CRAZY prices on some post war stuff won't last, but I think the higher prices in general, are caused by the boomers and post boomers getting older and having more disposable income to spend on their idol's cards. I doubt a PSA 9 Rose rookies will stay at $150k (or wtvr) but I think that the prices will stabilize more over time and remain high (as the scarcity of higher grade cards won't increase much, unlike junk era to now, which will push some of the more modern collectors into pre 80's eventually)

Heck, since the two PSA 9 '63 Topps Rose's went for $150K and $132K on ebay last month, the last two PSA 9s, just in the past two weeks, have gone for $86K and $82K (and the one that sold for $86K, IMHO, is the best of the four).

Steve

[bravos4evr]

Originally Posted by JustinD

Well I think you more agreed than half right,

I was talking about prewar and basically agree on post. Although it depends on where you see the price stabilization. In my opinion a reasonable price considering supply and production for a psa 9 rose would be 10k plus, which to me seems a tremendously high price for a 63. A mid grade should be in the couple hundred area. If I paid 100k now for something I could only sell for 10-11 in three years, I would be pretty bummed.

That's beanie baby ROI.

I also have into account the boomers have around 15 years until they start to fade like the ww2 generation. Time takes us all. It is indeterminate if the x and y generation can supply enough collectors to maintain values on post war pre-80. The millennial generation of my son has (for now it seems) a short attention span and may never get excited about the players of the past. It's a coin toss.

yeah, I was mostly agreeing but saying 87% right seemed...well weird!


I do think that much of this price boom is less than 100 guys selling various cards to each other and all trying to flip for more and more profit. Eventually this post war boom will fall, and fall badly. I DO think that the floor won't be what it was prior to this boom tho.

but hey, you might be right and it does a beanie baby. (which I would love, too many Aaron cards are out of my price range right now compared to the first time I bought them years ago )

[frankbmd]

Originally Posted by frankbmd

So when the Bat-Shit hits the fan, it's time to sell.

Are there any chiropterologists on the Board?

Apparently there are none.

[JustinD]

Originally Posted by frankbmd

Apparently there are none.

I think it was figurative bat-shit Frank.

[sushihotwings]

I think part of the reason post war cards are outperforming pre war is name recognition. A lot of people prefer to collect players they have seen play or at least are still alive and making appearances here and there generating buzz about their legend and accomplishments. Unfortunately I think pre war collectors are a smaller group and enjoy collecting stuff that is really old and significant to their origins of the sport. The names of the players from 1900 mean absolutely nothing to 99% of people. This reflects somewhat in pricing and demand. I am just starting to get interested in pre war as I get older and enjoy the historical aspects. Most young collectors are more interested in who's hot right now. If you have been dead for a century there is little you can do to get on that hot list🙂

[glchen]

I don't think the CJ Wojo card is a good comparison for the Reggie Jackson card in this card. I think the one of the keys these days is that the Rookie card market is completely taking off, and surprisingly, this is even including prewar cards. In the past, prewar rookie cards usually didn't get much of a premium for a particular prewar player because the player often had multiple prewar cards in this rookie year, and most of these were obscure regional issues so that collectors didn't know which one was his "best" rookie card. However, I think collectors are becoming more and more educated on this, so they are able to pick out the best card.

So, in this case, I think you should be comparing Wojo's T204 Ramly rookie card to the Jackson RC. And the Ramly just closed at nearly $71K in PSA 6, which look pretty healthy to me. (Same card sold for ~30K in Oct 2013.)

[irv]

Originally Posted by sushihotwings

I think part of the reason post war cards are outperforming pre war is name recognition. A lot of people prefer to collect players they have seen play or at least are still alive and making appearances here and there generating buzz about their legend and accomplishments. Unfortunately I think pre war collectors are a smaller group and enjoy collecting stuff that is really old and significant to their origins of the sport. The names of the players from 1900 mean absolutely nothing to 99% of people. This reflects somewhat in pricing and demand. I am just starting to get interested in pre war as I get older and enjoy the historical aspects. Most young collectors are more interested in who's hot right now. If you have been dead for a century there is little you can do to get on that hot list🙂

I agree with this.

When I was young, I loved baseball and loved playing it, but I only ever recall hearing about Ruth, DiMaggio, Shoe less Joe, just to name a few.

When I read some of the postings in the Pre-War section, some of the most sought after players by collectors (HOF's), I have never heard of before.

[BBB]

Originally Posted by glchen

I don't think the CJ Wojo card is a good comparison for the Reggie Jackson card in this card. I think the one of the keys these days is that the Rookie card market is completely taking off, and surprisingly, this is even including prewar cards. In the past, prewar rookie cards usually didn't get much of a premium for a particular prewar player because the player often had multiple prewar cards in this rookie year, and most of these were obscure regional issues so that collectors didn't know which one was his "best" rookie card. However, I think collectors are becoming more and more educated on this, so they are able to pick out the best card.

So, in this case, I think you should be comparing Wojo's T204 Ramly rookie card to the Jackson RC. And the Ramly just closed at nearly $71K in PSA 6, which look pretty healthy to me. (Same card sold for ~30K in Oct 2013.)

Absolutely agree it's about the RC. It's just crazy how far that goes. I figure it's getting more severe as guys like me (35-45) who grew up in the error when rookies went nuts reenter the market. Now those kids are grown and can afford to buy RCs of the post war players their parents probably told em about. I'm sure the bottom will fall but it won't fall near what they went for a year or so ago. Too many will hold I think.

Interesting factoid on the Ramly!

[FourStrikes]

Originally Posted by JustinD

I think it was figurative bat-shit Frank.

many of us- for many reasons - qualify as certifiably bat-shit!...good call, Justin.

[Jdoggs]

Ruth PSA 7 sporting news rookie at $717k already in heritage...will it end up at a million dollars?

[Danny Smith]

Originally Posted by sushihotwings

I think part of the reason post war cards are outperforming pre war is name recognition. A lot of people prefer to collect players they have seen play or at least are still alive and making appearances here and there generating buzz about their legend and accomplishments. Unfortunately I think pre war collectors are a smaller group and enjoy collecting stuff that is really old and significant to their origins of the sport. The names of the players from 1900 mean absolutely nothing to 99% of people. This reflects somewhat in pricing and demand. I am just starting to get interested in pre war as I get older and enjoy the historical aspects. Most young collectors are more interested in who's hot right now. If you have been dead for a century there is little you can do to get on that hot list🙂

I totally agree with this. I love prewar and enjoy set collecting but it is pretty awesome to pick up cards of players I loved as a kid, or I've met, or my dad idolized. For example I got to hang out with Whitey Herzog, Lou Brock, Bob Gibson, and Red Schoendienst in a suite at the cards game last night and now I'm totally hunting their high grade rookie cards because they were so much fun to talk to. And I'm not even a Cardinals fan. This has been a recent phenomenon, but I really enjoy the connection. Maybe it's things like this that are driving prices and maybe it's not but it is pretty awesome to collect the cards of guys that I have seen and love.