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  #1  
Old 07-14-2007, 04:26 PM
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Default Impact of the Card

Posted By: peter chao

So far I haven't noticed any changes to the vintage card market from the publication of The Card...I suppose we won't notice anything until the Mastro Auction at the National. What do you guys think, has the Card had any impact on prices so far?

Peter

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  #2  
Old 07-14-2007, 04:42 PM
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Posted By: Al C.risafulli

Well, I spent $12.95 on the book, so that's $12.95 less that I have to spend on cards.

-Al

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  #3  
Old 07-14-2007, 04:56 PM
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Posted By: peter chao

The Card has only gotten into Bay Area bookstores in the last few weeks, maybe that's the reason we haven't seen much impact.

Peter

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  #4  
Old 07-14-2007, 04:57 PM
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Default Impact of the Card

Posted By: JimB

Impact?


My prediction: None.
It may impact the next sale of that card, but I doubt it.

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  #5  
Old 07-14-2007, 05:16 PM
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Default Impact of the Card

Posted By: Jeff Lichtman

Yes, the book is tearing up the bestseller charts right now (#6000 in Amazon sales) so I'm certain that everyone is looking askance at their Wagners and wondering if those, too, might have been cut from a sheet.

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  #6  
Old 07-14-2007, 05:20 PM
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Posted By: dennis

to prove "the card" is trimmed is impossible. like anything else in life,if you can find an expert to claim it is,there will be another EXPERT to counter claim it is not. unless "the card" turns up in a PRO holder one day, we will never know, and its legendary status in the hobby will remain.

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  #7  
Old 07-14-2007, 05:21 PM
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Posted By: barrysloate

So Jeff, you don't see it sliding up the bestseller list?

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  #8  
Old 07-14-2007, 05:38 PM
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Posted By: JimB

It ranks higher than my first book , but a couple of years ago it may have been higher.
JimB

http://www.amazon.com/Ornament-Middle-Way-Madhyamaka-Shantarak****a/dp/1559392053/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1/002-6716752-5919257?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1184366022&sr=8-1

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  #9  
Old 07-14-2007, 05:58 PM
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Posted By: barrysloate

That looks like a very scholarly work. They usually aren't the best sellers. You need a little sex and violence to get it to sell!

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  #10  
Old 07-14-2007, 06:15 PM
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Posted By: JimB

I knew I should have included the long-rumored photos of the pre-trimmed Sanskrit text. You are right Barry; scholarly books do not traditionally sell a whole lot of copies outside of university libraries and a small field of specialists. It was a self-deprecating joke. Actually, for a scholarly book, it has done pretty well. The publisher tells me they were happily suprised and have encouraged that second volume I have ben talking about.
JimB

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  #11  
Old 07-14-2007, 06:31 PM
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Posted By: barrysloate

I am truly impressed that you could write a book of that significance.

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  #12  
Old 07-14-2007, 06:32 PM
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Posted By: Jeff Lichtman

But Barry -- is it worth a mass email to promote it?

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  #13  
Old 07-14-2007, 07:03 PM
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Posted By: barrysloate

Oh Lordie...I guess that one didn't go over too well!

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  #14  
Old 07-14-2007, 07:04 PM
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Posted By: JimB

Barry,
Thanks for the kind words.

Jeff,
No e-mails, just self-promotion on a board with few-to-no readers interested in my topic. As you can see, I did not go to business school.
JimB

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  #15  
Old 07-14-2007, 07:19 PM
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Posted By: barrysloate

Jim- I am in fact one of the people who is very interested in the topic, but as a skeptic and non-believer in almost everything I'm not sure I would make a good pupil. I know little of Buddhism but I've always imagined Buddhists are one of the few groups who seem to understand what is truly important in the world.

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  #16  
Old 07-14-2007, 07:40 PM
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Posted By: Alan

No impact whatsoever, although perhaps we might soon find out who bought it...

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  #17  
Old 07-14-2007, 11:03 PM
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Posted By: P Spaeth

Anyone ever read "If You Meet the Buddha On the Road, Kill Him?" Seriously.

http://www.amazon.com/Meet-Buddha-Pilgrimage-Psychotherapy-Patients/dp/0553278320

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  #18  
Old 07-14-2007, 11:11 PM
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Posted By: davidcycleback

Minor impact. It may be news to some, but not to the people putting down the money in the hobby.

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  #19  
Old 07-14-2007, 11:31 PM
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Posted By: davidcycleback

Jim, if you think it's tough mass marketing your book, below is a book my dad co-authored. I remember telling my dad the title needed more sex appeal.

http://search.barnesandnoble.com/booksearch/isbnInquiry.asp?z=y&EAN=9780841222144&itm=2

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  #20  
Old 07-14-2007, 11:35 PM
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Posted By: Dan Bretta

Who knew that Luis Aparicio was into catalytic reaction synthesis?


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  #21  
Old 07-15-2007, 12:31 AM
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Posted By: Julie Vognar

I vow to ferry them across the ocean of samsara;
Delusion is everywhere; I vow the uproot it completely;
The gates of the dharma are infinite; I vow to enter them all;
The words of the Buddha are unsurpassed; I vow to actualize them."

--shortest bodhisattva vow I know (Chinese)--in fact, the ONLY one I know.

I gave him away....

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  #22  
Old 07-15-2007, 09:23 AM
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Posted By: JimB

David,
That looks like a real page turner. Please don't ruin the ending for us. You are right. I have the advantage of an educated popular Buddhist audience in the West that devours books.

Julie,
Great to see you pop back in here every now and then.
JimB

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  #23  
Old 07-16-2007, 02:37 PM
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Posted By: peter chao

Since this thread is already going on the Card, I decided to carry on the discussion on the Downturn here. Is the downturn iminent? Will the Card speed up the Downturn? Are there other factors we need to look at?

Peter

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  #24  
Old 07-16-2007, 02:49 PM
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Posted By: barrysloate

I don't see an imminent downturn. The hobby is quite strong now with many prices still rising and a deep pool of vintage collectors.

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  #25  
Old 07-16-2007, 03:23 PM
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Posted By: davidcycleback

Jim, the final chapter in my dad's book is titled, "Isobutane Cracking Catalyzed by Acid Zeolites." I think that's where the guy gets the girl.

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  #26  
Old 07-16-2007, 08:53 PM
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Posted By: peter chao

Barry,

Sales at the National and the Mastro Auction will tell us a lot about how long the present bull period will last.

Peter

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  #27  
Old 07-16-2007, 09:28 PM
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Posted By: leon

Personally I wouldn't weigh the National too heavy vis a vis the current market. I would look more towards the many different auction houses and ebay. The National is very small comparatively speaking. I think everyone that goes will still have fun...but I wouldn't say the market is doing good or bad based on it. (newer cards might be different, I don't know) Just my opinion...regards

edited to stay on topic. I don't think The Card will have any impact on the market whatsoever...It might have made the PSA 8 a tad more valuable (again, imo)..but that's it.

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  #28  
Old 07-16-2007, 11:17 PM
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Posted By: peter chao

Leon,

Most of the dealers at the National also sell online, if the discounts on the last day of the National are minimal then the market is healthy. If deep discounts like 25% or so are being given on the last day then the downturn may be around the corner, just a layperson's opinion.

Peter

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  #29  
Old 07-16-2007, 11:47 PM
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Posted By: MVSNYC

peter-

why do keep pushing the question & issue of "the card's effect"..."market downturn", etc...?

the book will only effect the value of THAT card, will either increase it or decrease it next time it sells. i'm with Leon here, it will probably increase its value, whether it was trimmed or not, will have NO effect on the price, it is still THE card. people who have the means, WILL always want to own it.

the market is strong.

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  #30  
Old 07-17-2007, 01:24 AM
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Posted By: peter chao

I agree with you the market is surprisingly strong. But I have about 18 months of mortgage payments worth of cards dating from 1909- the present. I have always preferred to sell too soon rather than too late. I wouldn't mind selling about one-third of the cards in the near future, a downturn will come, that is the nature of markets. I'm just trying to figure out when it will come.

Remember, 90% of us are bullish on vintage cards, that's an indication that cards are becoming overpriced.

Peter

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  #31  
Old 07-17-2007, 01:44 AM
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Posted By: davidcycleback

Peter, I noticed card values were shaky after the publication of the book, but that's because my Standard Catalog was on the air conditioner. If it'll make you feel any better, I'll turn off the air condition.

If you truly believe the book will cause a sharp downturn in the value of cards, I don't understand why you are holding onto the cards this long after publication.

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  #32  
Old 07-17-2007, 02:11 AM
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Posted By: Bottom of the Ninth

David,

So far the only card I know that Peter C has confirmed he owns is a 53 Bowman Color Mantle GAI Authentic. It maybe that he has already divested himself of everything else in his collection.

Greg

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  #33  
Old 07-17-2007, 07:38 AM
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Posted By: MVSNYC

peter- you said...


"I have always preferred to sell too soon rather than too late"

"I agree with you the market is surprisingly strong"


according to what you are saying, NOW would be a great time to sell then.

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  #34  
Old 07-17-2007, 07:40 AM
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Posted By: Frank Wakefield

The book will not significantly affect the value or next sales price (very different things) of The Card, nor of other white border H. Wagner cards.

Folks that can afford those cards and who buy them will be buying Wagner's, and The Wagner, notwithstanding the book. Lots of folks will read the book, parts of the book, or a review of the book, who will never be in serious contention for buying a Wagner. That book will heighten interest in Wagners, and will increase the number of folks who know a bit about Wagners. But it won't really increase demand for Wagners. Lots of us want one, or would like one, but we're not geared up financially to be a serious bidder for one.

We're outside the window, looking in, we can use the book to stand on, to get a better view, but having read the book won't give us enough money to step inside and put in a competitive bid.

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  #35  
Old 07-17-2007, 07:42 AM
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Posted By: Frank Wakefield

Davidcycleback....

So if card prices have been cooling off a bit, lately, it is attributable to your catalog being on the air conditioner. You rascal...

I'll list a few cards on eBay in a few days. How about putting your catalog in the oven this weekend?

Thanks.

Frank.

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  #36  
Old 07-17-2007, 11:11 AM
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Posted By: peter chao

So if your catalog doesn't accidentally slide off the air conditioner the prices will remain steady...

I suppose you guys are right, if the Card hasn't impacted prices so far it's not going to.

A wise approach for me would be to start selling '50s and '60s material and just watch for where the market goes. Thanks for the input.

Peter

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  #37  
Old 07-17-2007, 11:36 AM
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Posted By: Neal Kane

I hope my PSA 5 Wagner doesn't take a nosedive.

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  #38  
Old 07-17-2007, 12:54 PM
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Posted By: davidcycleback

I don't know how the sale or state of a $2 plus million card effects the
value of cards most people buy and sell. It's like wondering how revelations
about the Hope diamond will effect the sales of earrings at Target. The PSA 8
Wagner is an aberration in more ways than one, living under its own rules,
and I don't think it should be taken as a bellweather for 1965 Topps.

Besides rumors about trimming et al were widespread long before the card sold
for $2+ million, and long before it sold for $1+ million. Likely the buyers
and sellers had heard them and taken them into consideration. I don't see
how putting the stories in to book form changes things much.

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  #39  
Old 07-17-2007, 12:57 PM
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Posted By: Jeff Lichtman

David theres a book coming out about the Hope Diamond being made of paste. Sell your shares in Target fast. Dont you think.

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  #40  
Old 07-17-2007, 01:05 PM
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Posted By: peter chao

My basic assumption is the Vintage Card market is like any other market. When revelations were made about Worldcom, Tyco and other heavyweight corporations, there were ripple effects in the stock market, it's possible the Vintage Card market is different.

Peter

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  #41  
Old 07-17-2007, 01:12 PM
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Posted By: PSpaeth

Peter: I think it is time to let go of this "downturn" obsession of yours. Sure, there may be one eventually, but it will have nothing to do with the stupid book.

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  #42  
Old 07-17-2007, 01:18 PM
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Posted By: davidcycleback

Peter, perhaps with new details, the book is repeating old stories.
It's not revelation. A new book doesn't reveal Donald Trump might
have a combover, as people already kinda figured that one out.

If you think there is future problem in the card market, you can sell.
If you think there are future problems with PSA, you can sell or switch
to SGC. Just don't consider the stories about the Wagner and PSA to
be revelations to the hobby, as they aren't. PSA collectors on the
CU board had heard the rumors and theories many times over. Just
ask them.

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  #43  
Old 07-17-2007, 02:40 PM
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Posted By: peter chao

David,

I always take your opinion seriously, anybody who edits their post, 3-4 times needs to be taken seriously.

It's true I've only gotten into pre-war vintage cards within the last few years so I'm still learning. This is a pretty interesting market.

Peter

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  #44  
Old 07-17-2007, 02:44 PM
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Posted By: Jeff Prizner

"anybody who edits their post, 3-4 times needs to be taken seriously."

Now that's funny. Score one for Chao!

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  #45  
Old 07-17-2007, 03:12 PM
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Posted By: MVSNYC

i have to hand it to Peter for that one too...

i noticed that David ALWAYS edits his posts like 5+ times...

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  #46  
Old 07-17-2007, 03:17 PM
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Posted By: Max Weder

I am patiently waiting for a black line version of net54 posts

Max

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