NonSports Forum

Net54baseball.com
Welcome to Net54baseball.com. These forums are devoted to both Pre- and Post- war baseball cards and vintage memorabilia, as well as other sports. There is a separate section for Buying, Selling and Trading - the B/S/T area!! If you write anything concerning a person or company your full name needs to be in your post or obtainable from it. . Contact the moderator at leon@net54baseball.com should you have any questions or concerns. Enjoy!
Net54baseball.com
Net54baseball.com
T206s on Ebay
Pre-WWII Cards
Post WWII Cards
Vintage Memorabilia
Babe Ruth Cards
Ty Cobb Cards
Lou Gehrig Cards
Mickey Mantle Cards
Goudey Cards
Bowman Cards
T205s on Ebay
Tobacco "T" Cards
Caramel "E" Cards
Vintage Baseball Postcards
Football Cards on Ebay
Exhibit Cards
Strip Cards
Baking Cards
Sporting News
Playball Cards on Ebay

Go Back   Net54baseball.com Forums > Net54baseball Postwar Sportscard Forums > Watercooler Talk- ALL sports talk

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 10-11-2019, 04:17 PM
100backstroke 100backstroke is offline
Member
 
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 669
Default Bellinger vs. Yelich - MVP

Looking at the numbers, I don't quite see how Bellinger is the favorite to win the MVP award. Of course Bellinger has more HR & RBI, but that's simply because he played more games. Bellinger has the higher WAR, however not offensive WAR, its his defensive WAR that pushes him ahead of Yelich. Pretty much any other category Yelich has the advantage. And Yelich quite better in basic batting avg. In fact, he was the league leader. Bellinger had a great start but tapered off, Yelich was good start, got even better. Yes, Bellinger played on the Dodgers who had a really good regular season - a lot of it due to him. But the Brewers also made post season, and without Yelich would not have made it.
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 10-12-2019, 09:41 AM
frankbmd's Avatar
frankbmd frankbmd is offline
Fr@nk Burke++
Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: Between the 1st tee and the 19th hole
Posts: 6,096
Default

Considering Bellinger’s fade and Yelich’s knee down the stretch, I would consider Rendon as well.

In a pennant race value in September matters as much or more than compiling numbers for the highest WAR.
__________________
FRANK:BUR:KETT - RAUCOUS SPORTS CARD FORUM MEMBER, WHO STANDS BY MY IRON CLAD GUARANTEE.

I CAN SELL ANY BASEBALL CARD FOR LESS THAN YOU PAID FOR IT.

GOOD FOR THE HOBBY AND THE FORUM WITH A VAULT IN AN UNDISCLOSED LOCATION


518/1000 Monster Number

Over*760* successful B/S/T transactions completed in 2012-19.
Over 550 sales with satisfied Board members served.
Thank you all.



Now nearly PQ.
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 10-12-2019, 10:26 AM
Peter_Spaeth's Avatar
Peter_Spaeth Peter_Spaeth is offline
Peter Spaeth
Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 20,111
Default

Rendon.
__________________
Stuff trumps all. Even tainted stuff.

"...we don't believe that there is anything of a material nature for our company to be concerned with." -- Joseph J. Orlando
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 10-12-2019, 02:47 PM
steve B steve B is offline
Steve Birmingham
Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: eastern Mass.
Posts: 5,900
Default

Cynically, the way the game has gone to a strikeout/HR sort of game, defense seems to count for less than it ever did.
Not much point to guys who can catch if every pitch is either in the mitt or over the wall.
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 10-12-2019, 03:13 PM
frankbmd's Avatar
frankbmd frankbmd is offline
Fr@nk Burke++
Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: Between the 1st tee and the 19th hole
Posts: 6,096
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by steve B View Post
Cynically, the way the game has gone to a strikeout/HR sort of game, defense seems to count for less than it ever did.
Not much point to guys who can catch if every pitch is either in the mitt or over the wall.
Maybe they should ban gloves just to make it interesting.......

.......except of course for the catcher.
__________________
FRANK:BUR:KETT - RAUCOUS SPORTS CARD FORUM MEMBER, WHO STANDS BY MY IRON CLAD GUARANTEE.

I CAN SELL ANY BASEBALL CARD FOR LESS THAN YOU PAID FOR IT.

GOOD FOR THE HOBBY AND THE FORUM WITH A VAULT IN AN UNDISCLOSED LOCATION


518/1000 Monster Number

Over*760* successful B/S/T transactions completed in 2012-19.
Over 550 sales with satisfied Board members served.
Thank you all.



Now nearly PQ.
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 10-12-2019, 03:41 PM
mlbgamejerseys mlbgamejerseys is offline
member
 
Join Date: May 2019
Posts: 12
Default

Bellinger has the highest WAR. He is also the better defensive player.
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 10-12-2019, 07:39 PM
pcoz's Avatar
pcoz pcoz is offline
Pete Costanzo
Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: Southeastern PA
Posts: 583
Default

I say Rendon for this year, Yelich missed a month and Bellinger faded big time. I think Arenado is the best player in the NL on the whole though, but may never win one. Premier defensive position that no one does better, and he brings it every year. Too bad he’s on a bad team. Wait til he dons the pinstripes in a couple years.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 10-12-2019, 08:31 PM
mlbgamejerseys mlbgamejerseys is offline
member
 
Join Date: May 2019
Posts: 12
Default

Rendon is currently +800 at the sportsbooks. It's worth putting money on him, if you really believe he's going to win the award.
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 10-13-2019, 08:36 AM
rats60's Avatar
rats60 rats60 is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2014
Posts: 1,788
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by 100backstroke View Post
But the Brewers also made post season, and without Yelich would not have made it.
You don't know this. The Brewers were behind the Cubs when Yelich got hurt. They got hot and passed the Cubs for the 2nd WC without Yelich even playing.

Bellinger got off to a hot start and the Dodgers built a big lead and cruised to the Division. You don't know that without that start maybe they struggle and choke in September. Also, last I looked defense is half the game. So, you can't discount a player's defense. Bellinger had the highest WAR and led the Dodgers to the best record. That is worthy of MVP. Just because he faded in meaningless games at the end of the season is no reason to take it from him when Yelich wasn't contributing at all down the stretch. If someone beats out Bellinger it should be Rendon, not Yelich.
Reply With Quote
  #10  
Old 10-15-2019, 09:14 AM
packs packs is offline
Member
 
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 5,585
Default

Bellinger had a good year but he's a star on a team of stars. I'm not sure anyone can say the Dodgers wouldn't have won their division without him unless you think he was worth the 21 wins they ran away with from Arizona.

Rendon is the true MVP. The Nationals would have been dead in the water without him and Soto and since Rendon had the better year, I'd give him the MVP.
Reply With Quote
  #11  
Old 10-15-2019, 10:41 AM
Peter_Spaeth's Avatar
Peter_Spaeth Peter_Spaeth is offline
Peter Spaeth
Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 20,111
Default

From June on Bellinger hit about .260.
__________________
Stuff trumps all. Even tainted stuff.

"...we don't believe that there is anything of a material nature for our company to be concerned with." -- Joseph J. Orlando
Reply With Quote
  #12  
Old 10-15-2019, 10:48 AM
frankbmd's Avatar
frankbmd frankbmd is offline
Fr@nk Burke++
Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: Between the 1st tee and the 19th hole
Posts: 6,096
Default

Rendon and crew will sweep to a World Series win, while Bellinger is sweeping the clubhouse floor at Chavez Ravine and Yelich cannot even kneel to pray for the MVP award with a broken knee cap.
__________________
FRANK:BUR:KETT - RAUCOUS SPORTS CARD FORUM MEMBER, WHO STANDS BY MY IRON CLAD GUARANTEE.

I CAN SELL ANY BASEBALL CARD FOR LESS THAN YOU PAID FOR IT.

GOOD FOR THE HOBBY AND THE FORUM WITH A VAULT IN AN UNDISCLOSED LOCATION


518/1000 Monster Number

Over*760* successful B/S/T transactions completed in 2012-19.
Over 550 sales with satisfied Board members served.
Thank you all.



Now nearly PQ.
Reply With Quote
  #13  
Old 10-16-2019, 05:17 PM
Fred's Avatar
Fred Fred is offline
Member
 
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 1,670
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by 100backstroke View Post
Looking at the numbers, I don't quite see how Bellinger is the favorite to win the MVP award. Of course Bellinger has more HR & RBI, but that's simply because he played more games. Bellinger has the higher WAR, however not offensive WAR, its his defensive WAR that pushes him ahead of Yelich. Pretty much any other category Yelich has the advantage. And Yelich quite better in basic batting avg. In fact, he was the league leader. Bellinger had a great start but tapered off, Yelich was good start, got even better. Yes, Bellinger played on the Dodgers who had a really good regular season - a lot of it due to him. But the Brewers also made post season, and without Yelich would not have made it.
I figure you can look at the entire package (offense and defense) when considering an MVP award. That said, sometimes it helps to be on a team that makes it to the WS because then that dimension is can be added to the selection process.

Why not pitchers? Yeah, a lot of people say that the Cy Young award is the prize for pitchers but when you look at the seasons that Verlander and Cole had, then you'd have to consider them (especially if the Stros make the series and win it all). Look at those WHIPs that each had. Totally mind boggling that two pitchers on the same team had stats like theirs - 300Ks, sub .90 WHIPs, sub 2.60 ERAs and both 20 game winners.
__________________
doh, doh, doh, doh....
Reply With Quote
  #14  
Old 10-16-2019, 06:07 PM
Peter_Spaeth's Avatar
Peter_Spaeth Peter_Spaeth is offline
Peter Spaeth
Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 20,111
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Fred View Post
I figure you can look at the entire package (offense and defense) when considering an MVP award. That said, sometimes it helps to be on a team that makes it to the WS because then that dimension is can be added to the selection process.

Why not pitchers? Yeah, a lot of people say that the Cy Young award is the prize for pitchers but when you look at the seasons that Verlander and Cole had, then you'd have to consider them (especially if the Stros make the series and win it all). Look at those WHIPs that each had. Totally mind boggling that two pitchers on the same team had stats like theirs - 300Ks, sub .90 WHIPs, sub 2.60 ERAs and both 20 game winners.
The vote is already in, I believe, so it's irrelevant what happens in the post season.
__________________
Stuff trumps all. Even tainted stuff.

"...we don't believe that there is anything of a material nature for our company to be concerned with." -- Joseph J. Orlando
Reply With Quote
  #15  
Old 10-17-2019, 03:48 PM
the 'stache's Avatar
the 'stache the 'stache is offline
Bill Gregory
Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: Flower Mound, Texas
Posts: 3,802
Default

I'm going to sound like a homer, but Christian Yelich is the MVP. The voters will give it to Bellinger (best player on the best team), or Rendon (Nats are the feel good story of the late season), but Yelich shouldn't be excluded, considering Bellinger and Rendon's drop off at the end of the season. More on that in a bit.

Firstly, let's address the time missed by the reigning NL MVP. It matters not that Yelich missed 32 games. Or, it shouldn't. Mike Trout will win the American League MVP, and he missed 28 games. Mookie Betts won it last year, and he missed 26 games. There are other recent MVP seasons where a player missed a number of games. Off the top of my head, Josh Hamilton won the 2010 American League MVP for the Rangers missing 29 games. I'm not even looking at, or thinking about the Senior Circuit. But these three of the last nine AL MVPs have missed 28 games, on average, so Yelich missing 32 shouldn't even be a consideration.

Next, this whole "the Brewers made the playoffs without Yelich, so he's not as important as everybody thinks he is" is a gross misrepresentation unsupported by statistical evidence. That this misinformation is flying around the web ticks me off as one who studies baseball history, and statistics. It's irresponsible, and I hope the voters will put more thought into this vote than that. The Brewers went on a tear, and made the playoffs because their pitching, which had been God awful all year, returned to 2018 form, not because of anything special their offense did.

The Brewers offense averaged 4.67 runs/game through September 5th, hitting .248 with a .768 team OPS. That day, the Brewers lost to the Cubs 10-5, falling to 71-68. They had virtually no chance at making the playoffs. Then, they started their historic run. They won the next four games, the final three against the Cubs, and the opener against the Marlins. They outscored their opponents 26-11. Through September 9th, the Brewers, with Christian Yelich, were now hitting .249 as a team with a .772 OPS, averaging 4.72 runs/game (675 runs in 143 games). Yelich went out early in the game on the 10th when he fouled a ball off his knee, shattering the Patella. Trent Grisham finished his last at bat, striking out, lowering his season batting average from .330 to .329. From the 10th to the end of the season, the Brewers hit .226 with a .735 OPS. The Brewers team hit 23 points lower, and OPS'd 37 points lower without Yelich. Yet they finished the season by going 18-5 (14-5 without their MVP).

Why? Their pitching. Through September 5th, the 71-68 Brewers had a 4.65 ERA. That dropped to 4.59 in the first 4 games of their improbable run with Yelich. The remainder of the way they played without him. The last 19 games of the season, Milwaukee went 14-5 because the team's ERA was 2.93. That was the difference maker. That's how the Brewers thrived without the best hitter in baseball this season.

And Yelich was the best hitter in the game this year (Yelich's OPS was 1.100, Trout's was 1.083).

And in the NL, Yelich was the best hitter by a wide margin, not only in OPS, but in situational performance.

The three finalists for the NL MVP will be Yelich, Cody Bellinger and Anthony Rendon. That's pretty much a given.

Their final numbers:

Yelich .329 AVG, 130 G, 100 runs, 44 HR, 97 RBI, 30 SB (30/32, .9375%). 80 BB, 118 K, .429 OBP/.671 SLG/1.100 OPS. 179 OPS+
Bellinger .305 AVG, 156 G, 121 runs, 47 HR, 115 RBI, 15 SB (15/20, 75%). 95 BB, 108 K .406 OBP/.629 SLG/1.035 OPS. 169 OPS+
Rendon .319 AVG, 146 G, 117 runs, 34 HR, 126 RBI, 5 SB (5/6 SB .83%). 80 BB, 86 K, .412 OBP/.598 SLG/1.010 OPS 153 OPS+

Yelich led the National League in batting average, on base percentage, home run rate (1 home run every 11.113 AB) and OPS+, and led the Major Leagues in slugging percentage and OPS.
Belinger led the National League with 351 bases.
Rendon led the National League with 44 doubles and 126 RBI.

I would point out that Yelich's lower RBI total is a product of where he hit in the order.

Yelich batted 2nd in 100 of 130 games. 454 PA.
Rendon batted 3rd in 137 of 146 games. 612 PA.
Belinger batted 4th in 131 of 156 games. 563 PA.

Now, I would first point to how the three men finished the season. Let's first look at their first and second half splits.

Belinger
First half: 377 PAs, .336 AVG, 30 HR, 71 RBI, .432 OBP/.692 SLG/1.124 OPS.
Second half: 284 PA, .263 AVG, 17 HR, 44 RBI, .371 OBP/.546 SLG/.917 OPS

Rendon
First half: 324 PA, .304 AVG, 20 HR, 62 RBI, .386 OBP/.611 SLG/.997 OPS.
Second half: 322 PA, .336 AVG, 14 HR, 64 RBI, .438 OBP/..585 SLG/1.023 OPS

Yelich
First half: 365 PA, .329 AVG, 31 HR, 67 RBI, .433 OBP/.707 SLG/1.140 OPS.
Second half: 215 PA, .330 AVG, 13 HR, 30 RBI, .423 OBP/.611 SLG/1.034 OPS.


Cody Bellinger's second half absolutely pales in comparison to his first. In the second half of the season, his AVG dropped from .336 to .263. That's a plummet of 73 points. And his OPS drops from 1.124 to .917. That's a 207 point drop.

Usually, as a team comes down the stretch, you want your best player playing at their best to help the team make the playoffs. Bellinger's MVP candidacy is almost entirely based on his first half. His OPS dropped every month:

April/March: 1.397
May: .998
June .967
July .952
August .918
September/October: .891

Now, none of those months are bad, though an OPS in the mid 900s or high 800s isn't MVP caliber, not when the league leader is at 1.100 for the season, and not considering the offensive boom in 2019 across baseball. Bellinger's Dodgers benefited from having a deep team. The best team in the NL in the regular season. He hit .235 in 28 August games before rebounding to hit .280 the last month plus of the season.

Rendon's first and second half splits are pretty close: .997 before the break, 1.023 after. But that second half metric is based off of a good July (.972) and a spectacular August (1.162). He was very un MVP-like in September and October, hitting .239 and OPS'ing .820 the last 26 games.

What about Yelich? Average isn't as important as it used to be when assessing players, but Yelich hit .330 before the break, and .329 after (and it's actually .330 if somebody else doesn't strike out finishing his last at bat). His power numbers in the first half were higher before some back issues started creeping in, but that can't be considered. Injuries happen. Still, he averaged a home run rate of 1:9.81 in the first half, and 1:14.23 in the second.

How did Yelich do late? Well, his September was cut short by the knee break. But while Bellinger was tanking late (.235 AVG, .918 OPS in August, .280 AVG, .891 OPS in Sept/Oct), and Rendon was fantastic in August (.394 AVG, 1.162 OPS) and disappointing in Sept/Oct (.235 AVG, .820 OPS), Yelich was heating up in a big way before he got hurt. August was one of his two months below a 1.000 OPS as the back caused him to miss six games, and he went the last 12 games of the month without a homer. Yelich hit .306 with a .939 OPS in August. But September he was scorching before the knee injury. In 9 September games, he hit .345 and slashed .513 OBP/.724 SLG/1.237 OPS. He had 3 homers in his final 28 at bats.

Of the three, Christian Yelich was the only one that played like an MVP in the stretch run.

What about each man's WAR for the season? Here is where Cody Bellinger has his advantage. He's clearly the best defender of the three in 2019.

2019 WAR (bWAR=Baseball Reference, fWAR=Fangraphs)
Cody Bellinger bWAR 9.0, fWAR 7.8
Christian Yelich bWAR 7.1, fWAR 7.8
Anthony Rendon bWAR 6.3, fWAR 7.0

Here is why I place less importance on WAR. There's no universally-accepted method of calculating it. Baseball Reference says that Bellinger's defense, and his hitting makes him 1.9 games more valuable than Yelich, and 2.7 games more valuable than Rendon.

But Fangraphs has Bellinger and Yelich tied at 7.8, and Rendon .8 behind both men. And remember, Bellinger played 156 games, 26 more than Yelich's 130. If Bellinger plays 20% more games, and provides the same value that Yelich did in 130 games, is he the MVP?

Should Christian Yelich be excluded because he played fewer games? His contribution for the season, per WAR, says that, on a per game basis, he was the most valuable player in the league.

What about win probability added? (source Baseball Reference):

Christian Yelich 7.1
Cody Bellinger 5.0
Anthony Rendon 4.8

That's not even close. Yelich's WPA is over 40% better than Bellinger's.

What about situational hitting?

RISP:
Bellinger 160 PA, .298 AVG, .444 OBP/.545 SLG/.989 OPS
Rendon 205 PA, .365 AVG, .463 OBP/.667 SLG/1.130 OPS
Yelich 132 PA, .327 AVG, .462 OBP/.693 SLG/1.155 OPS

Bellinger lags way behind the other two players.

2-outs, RISP:
Bellinger 68 PA, .241 AVG, .397 OBP/.407 SLG/.804 OPS
Rendon 77 PA, .362 AVG, .519 OBP/.793 SLG/1.313 OPS
Yelich 60 PA, .273 AVG, .467 OBP/.659 SLG/1.126 OPS

Bellinger's OPS with two out and runners in scoring position is 322 points lower than Christian Yelich's, and a whopping 509 points lower than Rendon's. Small sample size alert.

"Late and close" (defined by BBR: "are Plate Appearances in the 7th or later with the batting team tied, ahead by one, or the tying run at least on deck.")

Rendon 79 PA, .328 AVG, .430 OBP/.612 SLG/1.042 OPS
Yelich 96 PA, .443 AVG, .547 OBP/.829 SLG/1.375 OPS
Bellinger 88 PA, .260 AVG, .368 OBP/.521 SLG/.888 OPS

Again, small sample size, but noticing a trend? Bellinger lags behind the others again.

High leverage
Rendon 106 PA, .402 AVG, .453 OBP/.815 SLG/1.268 OPS
Yelich 100 PA, .384 AVG, .460 OBP/.791 SLG/1.251 OPS
Bellinger 122 PA, .314 AVG, .397 OBP/.637 SLG/1.034 OPS

Again, Bellinger is 217 points behind Yelich, and 234 behind Rendon in OPS.

Medium leverage
Rendon 233 PA, .327 AVG, .421 OBP/.597 SLG/1.018 OPS
Yelich 202 PA, .321 AVG, .426 OBP/.655 SLG/1.081 OPS
Bellinger 272 PA, .268 AVG, .379 OBP/.580 SLG/.959 OPS

Bellinger is 59 points behind Rendon, and 122 points behind Yelich

Low leverage
Rendon 305 PA, .285 AVG, .393 OBP/.523 SLG/.917 OPS
Yelich 278 PA, .315 AVG, .421 OBP/.638 SLG/1.059 OPS
Bellinger 265 PA, .335 AVG, .438 OBP/.674 SLG/1.112 OPS

Bellinger is at his best in the least critical of situations, whereas Christian Yelich and Anthony Rendon are at their best in high leverage situations.

Expressed another way, Fangraphs' Clutch metric ( How much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment):

Yelich .37
Rendon .61
Bellinger -.99

Yelich's score is strong. Rendon's even better. Bellinger? Terrible. He simply does not perform well in the clutch.

Looking at some more offensive numbers.

wRC+ (Runs per PA scaled where 100 is average; both league and park adjusted; based on wOBA)
Yelich 174
Bellinger 162
Rendon 154

Now, we would need to look at defense.

First, Fangraphs employs The Fielding Bible for its defensive analysis.

DRS (defensive runs saved above or below average)
Yelich -1
Rendon 2
Bellinger 22

UZR (ultimate zone rating)/150 games played. UZR considers arm, range, double plays and errors:
Yelich 2.5
Rendon 2.0
Bellinger 13.7

Rtot (the number of runs above or below average the player was worth based on plays made. Total defensive contribution. Baseball reference)
Yelich 5
Rendon 8
Bellinger 1 (1 CF, 1 1B, -1 RF)

Rdrs (defensive runs saved above average)
Rendon 1
Bellinger 25
Yelich -1

In the final analysis, does Bellinger's superior defense in right field offset the difference between he and Rendon and Yelich?

I don't see it, and not because Yelich is my guy. Bill James, in assessing Roberto Clemente's defensive prowess in his Historical Baseball Abstract, talked about how much his play in right field impacted his team's success during a season. How many truly impactful plays he made during a season. Plays that directly influenced a team's win/loss record. How many game saving plays does Bellinger make in right field? I wouldn't imagine it would be more than Clemente in his prime. James said that Clemente's defense, as good as it was, just didn't make up for the gap between his power, and somebody like Hank Aaron, who was also a good fielder. Bellinger might save runs with great catches. He might stop runners advancing with strong accurate throws. He might throw out the occasional runner at the plate. But 25 runs saved, over a 162 game season, is one more run saved better than an average right fielder (ie Yelich, this season, anyway) every 6.5 games.

If Bellinger had come even close to his first half after he break, I'd say he was the clear winner. But his offensive performance tanked. That's not to say it was bad, but it certainly wasn't MVP level. Baseball Reference has his sOPS+ before the break at 194. After, 139. His OPS in the first half was 207 points higher than it was in the second half. That's a huge drop off.

Yelich's offensive numbers are just better. His performance in the clutch is way better. And Yelich versus Rendon? A 179 OPS + for Yelich against Rendon's 153 OPS+, with comparable defensive performance. Let's not forget Yelich's base stealing. He attempted 32 stolen bases, and was successful 30 times. He was the second best power-speed man in the National League. If defense impacts runs allowed, how about moving up 30 bases over the course of the year with swipes, in a season where nobody was stealing. Yelich moved himself into better scoring position once every five games. He had the second best success rate of all MLB base stealers, and the one guy ahead of him, Tim Locastro, only attempted 17 stolen bases.

All things considered, offensive (throughout the whole season, down the stretch) performances, clutch performance, defense, I've gotta give it to Yelich.
__________________
Building these sets: T206, 1953 Bowman Color, 1975 Topps.

Great transactions with: piedmont150, Cardboard Junkie, z28jd, t206blogcom, tinkertoeverstochance, trobba, Texxxx, marcdelpercio, t206hound, zachs, tolstoi, IronHorse 2130, AndyG09, BBT206, jtschantz, lug-nut, leaflover, Abravefan11, mpemulis, btcarfagno, BlueSky, and Frankbmd.

Last edited by the 'stache; 10-17-2019 at 04:20 PM.
Reply With Quote
  #16  
Old 10-17-2019, 04:13 PM
the 'stache's Avatar
the 'stache the 'stache is offline
Bill Gregory
Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: Flower Mound, Texas
Posts: 3,802
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by rats60 View Post
You don't know this. The Brewers were behind the Cubs when Yelich got hurt. They got hot and passed the Cubs for the 2nd WC without Yelich even playing.

Bellinger got off to a hot start and the Dodgers built a big lead and cruised to the Division. You don't know that without that start maybe they struggle and choke in September. Also, last I looked defense is half the game. So, you can't discount a player's defense. Bellinger had the highest WAR and led the Dodgers to the best record. That is worthy of MVP. Just because he faded in meaningless games at the end of the season is no reason to take it from him when Yelich wasn't contributing at all down the stretch. If someone beats out Bellinger it should be Rendon, not Yelich.
Oh come on. Seriously? "Defense is half the game?"

If you mean that a team spends nine half innings in the field, and nine hitting, then yes. If you mean to tell me that one player's defensive contribution is equal to his offensive contribution, I have to laugh.

Per BBR, Cody Bellinger's oWAR was 6.6. His dWAR was 1.9, and I refuse to believe that even the best right fielder in the game was worth two whole wins with his glove. In his last 14 seasons, Roberto Clemente topped Bellinger's 1.9 dWAR of 2019 exactly one time-2.5 in 1968. And I'm sorry, Bellinger, as good as he is, isn't Clemente.

By WAR contribution, Bellinger's defense is about 21-22%. That's not even 1/4, let alone half. You're grossly overstating the importance of defense.

And Bellinger "led the Dodgers to _____". Again, seriously?

If we believe BBR, which I think overstates his WAR, the Dodgers' sixth best player would have tied for Milwaukee's best guy not named Christian Yelich. Milwaukee's second highest WAR guy was Brandon Woodruff, who missed a full two months of the season.

Take away Bellinger's 9 wins (per WAR) from a 107 win team, and the Dodgers still have 98 wins. Stick a league average right fielder out there, and the Dodgers still come close to the century mark for wins.

The Brewers? They won 89. Take Yelich's 7.1 off (per BBR), or 7.8 per Fangraphs, and they're a .500 team. .500 teams don't make the playoffs.

The Dodgers had, by WAR:

Bellinger 9.0
Max Muncy 5.7
Hyun-Jin Ryu 5.3
Corey Seager 4.0
Justin Turner 3.7
Clayton Kershaw 3.6
Joc Pederson 3.3

Here's where Woodruff, Milwaukee's second best player comes in. Our best guy after the reigning MVP is Joc Pederson. Do the Brewers even sniff the playoffs? Not a chance in hell.

Bellinger had the best season for Los Angeles. But to suggest that he "lead" them to the playoffs is a joke. He coasted for the second half of the season, hitting .263. League average this year for the NL was .251. If the Dodgers weren't so deep, and in such a God awful division, Bellinger's nosedive in the second half would have cost his team dearly.
__________________
Building these sets: T206, 1953 Bowman Color, 1975 Topps.

Great transactions with: piedmont150, Cardboard Junkie, z28jd, t206blogcom, tinkertoeverstochance, trobba, Texxxx, marcdelpercio, t206hound, zachs, tolstoi, IronHorse 2130, AndyG09, BBT206, jtschantz, lug-nut, leaflover, Abravefan11, mpemulis, btcarfagno, BlueSky, and Frankbmd.
Reply With Quote
  #17  
Old 10-17-2019, 04:14 PM
HRBAKER's Avatar
HRBAKER HRBAKER is offline
Jeff
Member
 
Join Date: May 2009
Location: Somewhere
Posts: 5,137
Default

Bill,
Pardon me if I didn't read every line but I love the passion.
__________________
Check out my aging Sell/Trade Album on my Profile page

HOF Type Collector + Philly A's, E/M/W cards, M101-6, Exhibits, Postcards, 30's Premiums & HOF Photos

"Assembling an unfocused collection for nearly 50 years."
Reply With Quote
  #18  
Old 10-17-2019, 08:00 PM
rats60's Avatar
rats60 rats60 is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2014
Posts: 1,788
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by the 'stache View Post
Oh come on. Seriously? "Defense is half the game?"

If you mean that a team spends nine half innings in the field, and nine hitting, then yes. If you mean to tell me that one player's defensive contribution is equal to his offensive contribution, I have to laugh.

Per BBR, Cody Bellinger's oWAR was 6.6. His dWAR was 1.9, and I refuse to believe that even the best right fielder in the game was worth two whole wins with his glove. In his last 14 seasons, Roberto Clemente topped Bellinger's 1.9 dWAR of 2019 exactly one time-2.5 in 1968. And I'm sorry, Bellinger, as good as he is, isn't Clemente.

By WAR contribution, Bellinger's defense is about 21-22%. That's not even 1/4, let alone half. You're grossly overstating the importance of defense.

And Bellinger "led the Dodgers to _____". Again, seriously?

If we believe BBR, which I think overstates his WAR, the Dodgers' sixth best player would have tied for Milwaukee's best guy not named Christian Yelich. Milwaukee's second highest WAR guy was Brandon Woodruff, who missed a full two months of the season.

Take away Bellinger's 9 wins (per WAR) from a 107 win team, and the Dodgers still have 98 wins. Stick a league average right fielder out there, and the Dodgers still come close to the century mark for wins.

The Brewers? They won 89. Take Yelich's 7.1 off (per BBR), or 7.8 per Fangraphs, and they're a .500 team. .500 teams don't make the playoffs.

The Dodgers had, by WAR:

Bellinger 9.0
Max Muncy 5.7
Hyun-Jin Ryu 5.3
Corey Seager 4.0
Justin Turner 3.7
Clayton Kershaw 3.6
Joc Pederson 3.3

Here's where Woodruff, Milwaukee's second best player comes in. Our best guy after the reigning MVP is Joc Pederson. Do the Brewers even sniff the playoffs? Not a chance in hell.

Bellinger had the best season for Los Angeles. But to suggest that he "lead" them to the playoffs is a joke. He coasted for the second half of the season, hitting .263. League average this year for the NL was .251. If the Dodgers weren't so deep, and in such a God awful division, Bellinger's nosedive in the second half would have cost his team dearly.
Justin Verlander has a WAR of 7.8. How much of that came from offense and how much came from defense? I don't think going 0 for 2 at the plate contributed at all to his total WAR. Of course those that control the ball the most, pitcher and catcher, contribute the most value and an OF less. That doesn't mean you can ignore the contribution of the OF to defense.

As far as Clemente vs. Bellinger you are comparing apples to oranges. Outfield defense in figured differently now because more data is available. That Clemente only exceeded 1.9 dWAR just shows that his defensive value is under represented by WAR, not that Bellinger's defense was not worth 1.9. More data leads to a more accurate value.

Finally, you don't add a team's WAR and get the team's wins. So, subtracting a player's WAR from a team's wins means nothing. I find it interesting that Brewers' fans at the beginning of September were saying that if Yelich led the Brewers to the playoffs, he deserved MVP. That is a defensible position. However, after he gets hurt to claim he still deserves it is not. The Brewers finished 3 games ahead in the wild card race. You can't say that Yelich's replacement wouldn't have got them to 86+ wins. Just look at how well the Brewers played without Yelich. It is all unknown and speculation. I give you credit for defending your team's player though.
Reply With Quote
  #19  
Old 10-18-2019, 09:27 AM
packs packs is offline
Member
 
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 5,585
Default

I just don't see how Yelich could possibly win when Rendon had the year he had and finished the season as an active player. Trout should win the AL MVP because his season was far and away so much better than anyone else's. But that isn't true in the NL and I don't think Yelich blew people away like Trout did.
Reply With Quote
  #20  
Old 10-18-2019, 10:17 AM
Peter_Spaeth's Avatar
Peter_Spaeth Peter_Spaeth is offline
Peter Spaeth
Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 20,111
Default

Yelich will not win. As between Bellinger and Rendon, Bellinger is the massive betting favorite, but I would not give it to him in light of the fact that after May he didn't play at anywhere near an MVP level and his season stats are skewed by his otherworldly start. Anyone want to give me 8 to 1, I'll take Rendon.
__________________
Stuff trumps all. Even tainted stuff.

"...we don't believe that there is anything of a material nature for our company to be concerned with." -- Joseph J. Orlando

Last edited by Peter_Spaeth; 10-18-2019 at 10:18 AM.
Reply With Quote
  #21  
Old 10-18-2019, 03:40 PM
100backstroke 100backstroke is offline
Member
 
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 669
Default

Bill, thank you for the great analytical job. Very interesting to note that is was the Brewers pitching that predominately got them the end of season winning streak. And I contend that if Yelich wasn't so darn good, they wouldn't have even been in position to take advantage of a pitching based hot streak to get into the playoffs.

As of Oct. 15th, the Las Vegas odds:
Bellinger -200
Yelich +175
Rendon +800

I love Rendon, what he did, how he did, when he did - very nice season, indeed. Love to have him on my team. But that is long Vegas odds - over 4 times less likely to win than even the second choice. Realistically however, wayyy slim chance. This coming from Vegas with actual hard money being put on the line.

From May onward (majority of season), a .260 hitter is kinda hard to choke down as an MVP is it not. Yes, Bellinger better defensively, but I don't think Yelich stunk up the joint with his defense.

Hands down the best hitter, the most consistent hitter, the hitter with better averages, the hitter with better power, across the board is Yelich. C'mon you guys, can't really honestly against argue that. Side note not yet mentioned - Not sure if stolen bases go into WAR calculation, but Yelich dominates over Bellinger there.

Curious - Anyone know which player to ever win MVP going into announcement had longest odds?
Reply With Quote
  #22  
Old 10-18-2019, 04:06 PM
100backstroke 100backstroke is offline
Member
 
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 669
Default

Another note on Stolen Bases. Yelich had 30 stolen bases and only 2 caught. That is the highest success ratio of any of the top base stealers. Bellinger not even remotely close.

Last edited by 100backstroke; 10-18-2019 at 04:07 PM.
Reply With Quote
  #23  
Old 10-24-2019, 05:36 AM
the 'stache's Avatar
the 'stache the 'stache is offline
Bill Gregory
Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: Flower Mound, Texas
Posts: 3,802
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by packs View Post
I just don't see how Yelich could possibly win when Rendon had the year he had and finished the season as an active player. Trout should win the AL MVP because his season was far and away so much better than anyone else's. But that isn't true in the NL and I don't think Yelich blew people away like Trout did.
Remind me who had the highest WPA (win probability added) in the Major Leagues? It wasn't Mike "the WAR darling" Trout. It certainly wasn't Rendon.

MLB WPA leaders (Win Probability Added for Offensive Player. Given average teams, this is the change in probability caused by this batter during the game. A change of +/- 1 would indicate one win added or lost.)

1. Christian Yelich 7.121
2. Mike Trout 5.198
3. Cody Bellinger 4.986
4. Anthony Rendon 4.760

"The year Rendon had?" If you play baseball to win the game, Christian Yelich was the best offensive player in the NL by a huge margin. Not Anthony Rendon. Yelich's bat was worth two more wins than any other hitter in the game.

Yelich was the NL MVP last year with a 1.000 OPS. Granted, the ball this year was clearly more "lively" (and I'm not going to get into a discussion if the balls were juiced). But the year after his MVP, he raised his OPS by 10%. His OPS+, which factors in park, league averages, went from 164 in 2018 to 179 in 2019. That's a substantial bump in performance. If you were told you were the best player in the league, and next year, you boosted your league-best performance by 10%, you'd think you'd repeat as MVP, wouldn't you?

Yelich had the second best AVG in the Majors. Highest OBP in the NL, second best in MLB. Highest SLG and OPS in baseball. He had the highest HR rate in the NL (only Trout was better in baseball), and the best stolen base success rate of any qualified player in Major League Baseball.

There's really no argument to be made for Anthony Rendon over Yelich. Rendon was slightly above average defensively +0.3 dWAR. Yelich slightly to moderately below, -0.7.

But WAR takes all that into consideration.

bWAR
Yelich 7.1
Rendon 6.3

fWAR
Yelich 7.8
Rendon 7.0

Rendon played 16 more games than Yelich, yet his WAR on both sites is nearly a full point (0.8) lower than Yelich.

Where's the argument to be made for Anthony Rendon over Christian Yelich?

Go back to the team strength discussion. Rendon didn't even lead his own TEAM in WAR.

Per BBR
Stephen Strasburg 6.5
Rendon 6.3
Max Scherzer 5.8
Patrick Corbin 5.4
Juan Soto 4.7
Victor Robles 4.1
Anibal Sanchez 3.3

Again, Brandon Woodruff was Milwaukee's second best player, by WAR at 3.3. He would have been the seventh-best player on the Nationals.

Anthony Rendon had a hell of a lot more help getting Washington to that Wild Card game than Christian Yelich did.

So, again, tell me: what's the argument to be made for Anthony Rendon being more valuable than Yelich?

MLB runs created leader:

1. Christian Yelich 150
Alex Bregman 150
3. Cody Bellinger 146
4. Mike Trout 145
5. Anthony Rendon 139

Rendon had a great year. But not a better, or more valuable one than Christian Yelich.

How many guys in the past have been their league's best hitter by AVG, OBP, SLG, home run rate, and its best base stealer?

Ronald Acuna led the NL with 37 stolen bases. But he was thrown out 8 times. That's an 82.2% success rate. Trea Turner stole 35, but was thrown out 5 times. That's an 87.5% success rate. Yelich stole 30 in 32 tries. That's a 93.75% success rate.

Yelich vs Trout?

Trout hit .291. Yelich .329.
Trout OBP .438. Yelich .429.
Trout SLG .645. Yelich .671.
Trout 11/13 SB, Yelich 30/32.
Trout 600 PA, Yelich 580 PA.

Trout walks about 4.5% more, hence a higher OBP. That's Trout's advantage as an offensive player right now. But the advantage is narrowing.
__________________
Building these sets: T206, 1953 Bowman Color, 1975 Topps.

Great transactions with: piedmont150, Cardboard Junkie, z28jd, t206blogcom, tinkertoeverstochance, trobba, Texxxx, marcdelpercio, t206hound, zachs, tolstoi, IronHorse 2130, AndyG09, BBT206, jtschantz, lug-nut, leaflover, Abravefan11, mpemulis, btcarfagno, BlueSky, and Frankbmd.
Reply With Quote
  #24  
Old 10-24-2019, 02:09 PM
packs packs is offline
Member
 
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 5,585
Default

I think you're the only person who commented that thinks Yelich should win. Not sure anyone voting will look at things the way you are re: the stats you picked to talk about.

Last edited by packs; 10-24-2019 at 02:11 PM.
Reply With Quote
  #25  
Old 10-24-2019, 02:18 PM
frankbmd's Avatar
frankbmd frankbmd is offline
Fr@nk Burke++
Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: Between the 1st tee and the 19th hole
Posts: 6,096
Default

The posts supporting Yelich are by far the longest.

Bill, I’m with you.
__________________
FRANK:BUR:KETT - RAUCOUS SPORTS CARD FORUM MEMBER, WHO STANDS BY MY IRON CLAD GUARANTEE.

I CAN SELL ANY BASEBALL CARD FOR LESS THAN YOU PAID FOR IT.

GOOD FOR THE HOBBY AND THE FORUM WITH A VAULT IN AN UNDISCLOSED LOCATION


518/1000 Monster Number

Over*760* successful B/S/T transactions completed in 2012-19.
Over 550 sales with satisfied Board members served.
Thank you all.



Now nearly PQ.
Reply With Quote
  #26  
Old 10-24-2019, 02:28 PM
Peter_Spaeth's Avatar
Peter_Spaeth Peter_Spaeth is offline
Peter Spaeth
Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 20,111
Default

Yelich was having a terrific year when he went down. He isn't the MVP. Bill always makes strong arguments but I am guessing if he wasn't so biased in favor of the Brewers he could make different arguments from the same data.
__________________
Stuff trumps all. Even tainted stuff.

"...we don't believe that there is anything of a material nature for our company to be concerned with." -- Joseph J. Orlando
Reply With Quote
  #27  
Old 10-24-2019, 03:10 PM
100backstroke 100backstroke is offline
Member
 
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 669
Default

Living in Oregon and growing up in SoCal, I have absolutely no ties or love for the Brewers, couldn't care less about the team in general.

Looking at some monthly breakdowns for the bulk of the season of just simply batting averages (power numbers would skew even more in favor of Yelich):

-------- Bellinger Yelich Difference
June --- .272 ---- .365 --- a lot
July --- .265 ---- .352 --- a lot
August --- .235 ---- .306 --- a lot
Sep/Oct --- .280 ---- .345 --- a lot

Bellinger had a wonderful memorable great terrific... month or so
Reply With Quote
  #28  
Old 10-26-2019, 03:50 AM
the 'stache's Avatar
the 'stache the 'stache is offline
Bill Gregory
Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: Flower Mound, Texas
Posts: 3,802
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth View Post
Yelich was having a terrific year when he went down. He isn't the MVP. Bill always makes strong arguments but I am guessing if he wasn't so biased in favor of the Brewers he could make different arguments from the same data.
I really couldn't. I'm a bit long-winded because the evidence supporting his winning is compelling. The standard numbers make the case for Yelich. The situational stats are very close for Yelich and Rendon.

Yelich was the best hitter in the league this year by far.
Bellinger, who was great for half a year, good for the other half.
Rendon, who was consistent all year, but in the aggregate, not quite as good as Yelich.

A .265 AVG for half a season in a year when multiple teams have hit 300 home runs just isn't MVP worthy. I'm sorry. I don't care how great he was before the break. He was average (at best) in the second half. And while there's some discrepancy as to how WAR is calculated, with BBR showing Bellinger clearly ahead, and Fangraphs having them at a dead heat-both show those two well ahead of Rendon.
__________________
Building these sets: T206, 1953 Bowman Color, 1975 Topps.

Great transactions with: piedmont150, Cardboard Junkie, z28jd, t206blogcom, tinkertoeverstochance, trobba, Texxxx, marcdelpercio, t206hound, zachs, tolstoi, IronHorse 2130, AndyG09, BBT206, jtschantz, lug-nut, leaflover, Abravefan11, mpemulis, btcarfagno, BlueSky, and Frankbmd.
Reply With Quote
  #29  
Old 10-26-2019, 03:53 AM
the 'stache's Avatar
the 'stache the 'stache is offline
Bill Gregory
Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: Flower Mound, Texas
Posts: 3,802
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by packs View Post
I think you're the only person who commented that thinks Yelich should win. Not sure anyone voting will look at things the way you are re: the stats you picked to talk about.
The stats I picked to talk about? Average, home runs, OPS, first and second half splits, leverage situations?

Those aren't numbers some theoretical physicist had to extract from a massive pile of data. Those are some pretty straightforward metrics.

Even a trained monkey can see that a half year hitting .265 isn't MVP worthy.
__________________
Building these sets: T206, 1953 Bowman Color, 1975 Topps.

Great transactions with: piedmont150, Cardboard Junkie, z28jd, t206blogcom, tinkertoeverstochance, trobba, Texxxx, marcdelpercio, t206hound, zachs, tolstoi, IronHorse 2130, AndyG09, BBT206, jtschantz, lug-nut, leaflover, Abravefan11, mpemulis, btcarfagno, BlueSky, and Frankbmd.
Reply With Quote
  #30  
Old 10-28-2019, 10:04 AM
packs packs is offline
Member
 
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 5,585
Default

Those trained monkeys are the ones voting for MVP.

But besides that, your stats really don't tell the story that makes someone an MVP. Yelich didn't have a great second half. His counting stats were essentially halved while Rendon's counting stats got better when the Nationals needed him most. Whereas Yelich's home runs and rbi's dropped by more than half, and his on base and OPS dropped, Rendon's rbi total went up, his average was more than 30 points higher, and his on base and OPS both went up. The Nats are out of the playoffs without him and given that the Nats also finished with a better record and were the superior team, their best player should naturally win the award.

Last edited by packs; 10-28-2019 at 10:30 AM.
Reply With Quote
  #31  
Old 10-28-2019, 10:35 AM
Peter_Spaeth's Avatar
Peter_Spaeth Peter_Spaeth is offline
Peter Spaeth
Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 20,111
Default

Anyone want to give me 6-1 on Rendon?
__________________
Stuff trumps all. Even tainted stuff.

"...we don't believe that there is anything of a material nature for our company to be concerned with." -- Joseph J. Orlando
Reply With Quote
  #32  
Old 10-28-2019, 10:43 AM
rats60's Avatar
rats60 rats60 is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2014
Posts: 1,788
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by the 'stache View Post

But WAR takes all that into consideration.

bWAR
Yelich 7.1
Rendon 6.3

fWAR
Yelich 7.8
Rendon 7.0
I hope that you realize that those numbers are not statistically significant, they are within the margin of error. Rendon led his team to the playoffs, Yelich did not. Even Yelich has said he doesn't think he is the NL MVP.

Last edited by rats60; 10-28-2019 at 10:43 AM.
Reply With Quote
  #33  
Old 10-28-2019, 11:34 AM
tjenkins tjenkins is offline
Todd Jenkins
Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2015
Location: Clark, South Dakota (rural)
Posts: 333
Default Mvp

Maybe it should be a Fred Lynn......Pete Alonso, ROY and MVP
__________________
Collect Vikings, Twins, Vintage HOF and also Off-Center vintage. ***A journey of a 1,000 miles begins with a single card! -Cardfusious
Trade Page: http://toddjenkins.wikispaces.com/Cards

Recent positve trades with: Brian Van Horn, frank bmd, nkesterke09, ajg, esehombre, mrmantlecollector, KC Doughboy, gregr2,bn2cardz, sycks22
Reply With Quote
  #34  
Old 12-03-2019, 08:00 AM
the 'stache's Avatar
the 'stache the 'stache is offline
Bill Gregory
Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: Flower Mound, Texas
Posts: 3,802
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by packs View Post
Those trained monkeys are the ones voting for MVP.

But besides that, your stats really don't tell the story that makes someone an MVP. Yelich didn't have a great second half. His counting stats were essentially halved while Rendon's counting stats got better when the Nationals needed him most. Whereas Yelich's home runs and rbi's dropped by more than half, and his on base and OPS dropped, Rendon's rbi total went up, his average was more than 30 points higher, and his on base and OPS both went up. The Nats are out of the playoffs without him and given that the Nats also finished with a better record and were the superior team, their best player should naturally win the award.
And your stats represent one of the most egregious examples of cherry picking I've ever seen on Net 54.

Yelich didn't have a great second half? Are you fucking kidding me with this??

You're telling me how great Rendon was after the All Star break. Yet:

2019 second half OPS:
Christian Yelich 1.034
Anthony Rendon 1.023.



If Christian Yelich didn't have a great second half (your words), but his performance was still better than Rendon's, what does that say about how Rendon played after the break?

Whoops.

Christian Yelich won the MVP last year with a 1.000 OPS. His 2019 second half OPS was 34 points higher than the same metric that led the National League last season.

But he didn't have a great second half. Riiiight.

And this BS about how his "counting stats were essentially halved"? Nice how you just casually gloss over that those counting stats dropped because Yelich was hurt. His didn't realize some precipitous drop in performance. He had 150 fewer plate appearances in the second half.

And this nugget--"Yelich's OBP dropped".

Yeah, from .433 to .423. Wow, what a drop off!! You also managed to avoid that Rendon's SLG dropped from .611 in the first half, to .585 in the second. But you DID mention that Yelich's SLG dropped. Yes, it dropped to .611. His SLG "dropped" to perfectly equal Rendon's "best" half of baseball from a SLG perspective.

#2

And Rendon's "counting stats" got better.

Like home runs??

Rendon's first half home runs: 20
Rendon's second half home runs: 14

#3

"Rendon's RBI total went up"

By a whopping 2. From 62 to 64. An increase of 2 RBI is such a statistically insignificant number, it's not worth mentioning. And anybody with a clue about baseball stats doesn't point to RBI for....anything, anymore. Not in 2019. RBI are a stat of opportunity. Logic dictates that the player who gets more opportunities will have a better result.

And this little gem makes me crack up:

Quote:
"Rendon's counting stats got better when the Nationals needed him most."
Like the last month plus of the season, right? When a team either makes the playoffs, or misses them. September and October are where legends are born. So Rendon kicked it into high gear in September and October....when his team needed him most, right?

Hmm. Let's look at the actual statistics:

Anthony Rendon's batting statistics in September and October of 2019:

26 games played, 115 PA
.239 AVG, 3 HR, 17 RBI, slash line of .400/.420/.820.

A .239 AVG and a .820 OPS. Wow, Rendon just killed it...you know, when his team really needed him.

Just for shits and giggles, how was Christian Yelich doing before he got hurt, in September, you know, when his team "really needed him."

Christian Yelich's batting statistics in September of 2019 (I didn't include the 9th game where he came to the plate once, and Trent Grisham finished his at bat):

8 games played, 38 PA
.357 AVG, 3 HR, 8 RBI, slash line of .526/.750/1.276.

When their "teams really needed them", let's compare the performances of Anthony Rendon and Christian Yelich side by side, shall we?

September and October 2019 batting performances:
Rendon .239 AVG, .400 OBP/.420 SLG/.820 OPS
Yelich .357 AVG, .526 OBP/.750 SLG/1.276

Yes, when "their teams needed them most", Anthony Rendon performed better than Yelich....right?

#4

And those RBIs? That big counting stat you so proudly point to as evidence of Anthony Rendon's MVP worthiness. Rendon had almost exactly three times as many plate appearances as Yelich in September and October. 115 PA for Rendon, 38 for Yelich.

Rendon drove in 17 runs. Yelich drove in 8. Again, Rendon had three times the plate appearances.....but only twice Yelich's RBI count. Yelich's RBI count is more impressive than Rendon's, especially when you consider that 97.7% of Rendon's plate appearances in 2019 came from the third or fourth position in the batting order, while 78.7% of Yelich's plate appearances in 2019 came while batting second.

"Counting stats".

Down the stretch, Yelich and Rendon both had 3 HR. Only, Yelich equaled his home run total in 18 fewer games.

Yelich averaged one RBI every 4.75 PA in Sept/Oct.
Rendon averaged one RBI every 6.76 PA in Sept/Oct.

Yelich homered once every 9.33 AB in September/October. 3 HR in 28 AB.
Rendon homered once every 29.3 AB in September/October. 3 HR in 88 AB.

Counting stats!!!!!!

#5
__________________
Building these sets: T206, 1953 Bowman Color, 1975 Topps.

Great transactions with: piedmont150, Cardboard Junkie, z28jd, t206blogcom, tinkertoeverstochance, trobba, Texxxx, marcdelpercio, t206hound, zachs, tolstoi, IronHorse 2130, AndyG09, BBT206, jtschantz, lug-nut, leaflover, Abravefan11, mpemulis, btcarfagno, BlueSky, and Frankbmd.

Last edited by the 'stache; 12-03-2019 at 08:28 AM.
Reply With Quote
  #35  
Old 12-03-2019, 09:46 AM
packs packs is offline
Member
 
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 5,585
Default

Who won the MVP?
Reply With Quote
  #36  
Old 12-04-2019, 06:35 AM
the 'stache's Avatar
the 'stache the 'stache is offline
Bill Gregory
Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: Flower Mound, Texas
Posts: 3,802
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by packs View Post
Who won the MVP?
Not Anthony Rendon.
__________________
Building these sets: T206, 1953 Bowman Color, 1975 Topps.

Great transactions with: piedmont150, Cardboard Junkie, z28jd, t206blogcom, tinkertoeverstochance, trobba, Texxxx, marcdelpercio, t206hound, zachs, tolstoi, IronHorse 2130, AndyG09, BBT206, jtschantz, lug-nut, leaflover, Abravefan11, mpemulis, btcarfagno, BlueSky, and Frankbmd.

Last edited by the 'stache; 12-04-2019 at 07:00 AM.
Reply With Quote
  #37  
Old 12-04-2019, 09:15 AM
packs packs is offline
Member
 
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 5,585
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by the 'stache View Post
Not Anthony Rendon.
Not Yelich, though, right?
Reply With Quote
  #38  
Old 12-04-2019, 01:41 PM
100backstroke 100backstroke is offline
Member
 
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 669
Default

Obviously, the hot start ( about 1/3 of the season) is why the majority of MVP voters gave it to Bellinger. After that he had monthly BA of .272, .265, .235, & .280 Bellinger's OPS also declined each and every month. Then when it really counts, Post Season, the MVP couldn't help get his team out of their first match up as he hit .211 - yes, that's correct, post season BA almost sub-.200 and slugging at .263 Yes, I know post season supposedly doesn't count toward the voting. Regardless, there are your 2019 MVP numbers folks ... oh, boy...need to find that emoji where the eyes roll back. Y'know, the voters don't always get it right. Go back in MVP voting history and there are headscratchers. Dimaggio won it over Ted Williams one year when hands down Teddy had the far superior year. Oh, well, the human element, we don't always get it right.
Reply With Quote
  #39  
Old 12-04-2019, 04:06 PM
100backstroke 100backstroke is offline
Member
 
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 669
Default

What if Bellinger's season had been flip flopped with his big numbers coming in the last third of the season. So at the end of August he is hitting .263 for the season and then goes on his tear and finally brings his BA up to .305 by the very end. I don't think he would have nearly been on the MVP radar all season long like he was.

Flip flop it for Yelich. So consistent the whole season. Yelich would have definitely been on the MVP radar early on and all the way through.
Reply With Quote
Reply



Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
The modern card market with Yelich as example Peter_Spaeth Modern Baseball Cards Forum (1980-Present) 73 05-14-2019 10:18 PM


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 01:02 AM.


ebay GSB