% of Graded Vintage Cards

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Posted By: peter chao

This is another friendly thread on the grading of vintage cards. There are three parts to this question: 1) What percentage of vintage cards are graded by any co.? 2) Of the graded T-206 cards what is the percentage of high grade cards that have been graded? and 3) What percentage of high grade (PSA 8 or higher) T-206 cards are in non-PSA/SGC holders?

You may recognize that was a thread earlier on number 3. However, this is an important question, because it is possible that these high grade T-206s will be cracked and re-circulated in the hobby.

Peter C.

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Posted By: MVSNYC

i'll repost some earlier info that i posted in a thread a few weeks ago comparing the number of high grade T206's vs. T205's...you can do the math yourself and figure out percentages...

PSA Total T206's graded = approx. 80,000
PSA Total T205's graded = approx. 17,000

For every (4) T206 there is LESS Than (1) T205. so they are at least 4 times as rare.

Numbers for high grade examples:

T206 cards rated 7 and above - 6739
T205 cards rated 7 and above - 1088

Which makes high grade T205 about 6 times as rare.

Go higher, and you get

T206 8 and above -2642
T205 8 and above - 193

Which makes 8's and above T205's about 14 times as rare.

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Posted By: peter chao

I don't think you can imply that T-205s are a lot more rare. Remember, noone is going to get '87 Topps cards graded. I'm just saying that T-206s have always been more valuable, that may be the reason that more of them have been graded. But it does appear that there are way fewer high-grade T205s.

Peter C.

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Posted By: Matt E.

Peter has become Jack Barry from the movie Quiz Show.
"Yes Peter, I would to take the third part first"

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Posted By: MVSNYC

"Of the graded T-206 cards what is the percentage of high grade cards that have been graded?"

peter- you're such a piece of work...you ask for help, and others opinions, then when you get cold hard facts given to you, you somehow spin it around and critique the info you get...?



p.s.

"remember noone is going to get '87 topps cards graded"...

not that i care about 1987 topps, but you should check the pop reports before you make comments like the above...

***PSA 1987 topps pop = 31,652 graded (not including all of the subsets, tiffany, traded, etc...)

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Posted By: leon

No one except those 31,652 graded. Not one more....

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Posted By: peter chao

It's the legal eagle part of me. Jeff L. and many others have the same approach. We just want to separate the wheat from the chaff. Basically, we want to get to the true facts, so we critically approach the facts.

Responses are appreciated, I didn't mean to criticize anybody.

Peter C.

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Posted By: Rob Dewolf

It's the legal eagle part of me.

Best line of the week. (OK, it's Sunday.)

Thanks for the laugh.

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Posted By: T206Collector

Uh, T205's were only produced in 1911. T206's were produced for three years from 1909-11. Based on those cold hard facts alone, you would expect three T206 cards to every 1 T205 card -- and that was by the end of 1911 alone.

Given T206 have always been more popular, it would not be surprising to see those numbers fall to 4:1, as the PSA pop report suggests.

I think relying on pop reports when the different is 1 card graded versus 4 cards graded is silly. But when the numbers are 80,000 to 20,000 you can certainly learn quite a bit about relative scarcity.

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Posted By: E, Daniel

I think I'd rather call Corbin Bernsen first.
And Chaff from wheat? Well, it's nice to have a person of your incredible intellect to sort out some of our dumb from not som dumb responses....

Seriously Peter, It would be nice to hear your opinion once or twice on a thread and not have you moderate the discussion with endless yada yada's. Constanly reinterpreting the question, what each person really thinks by their response, its so bloody tiring to read.

Really. (Please read with an SNL intonation).



Daniel



Edited to spell Corbin's name correctly.

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Posted By: Joe D.

i do notice striking similarities between your posts and jeff L's posts.

its uncanny.

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Posted By: Richard Masson

I'm just sitting here coming to grasp with the concept of there being 30,000 graded 1987 Topps cards somewhere. Wow.

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Posted By: Joann

I think I'm getting lost in the dizzying world of high grade cards here.

Hasn't this question (or these questions?) been asked here 100 times in the past, including a few times in the past week or so?

I'd never say that topics addressed in the past can never be revisited. But this one seems like it keeps coming up with some little subtlety in the question time and time again.

I don't follow pop reports or try to keep up with proportion graded, so maybe I'm missing something in that these questions are all truly different? And don't get me going on trying to sort through the answers, especially after they are dissected over the course of multiple posts.

Joann

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Posted By: Jeff Lichtman

Peter, when your ancestors came to our country did they change the spelling of their surname from Chaff to Chao?

Woops! Edited to add: <---- note double smileys

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Posted By: dennis

peter and to others interested in ???'s with no real answers on graded cards here is a link to the psa set registry.


http://www.psacard.com/set_registry/

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Posted By: Gilbert Maines

Link yields:

PSA Error


You have run into a unexpected error on PSA. We apologize for the inconvenience ...


Could it be that they do not realize that errors at PSA are never unexpected.

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Posted By: dennis

thanks gil i think it's OK for now.try link

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Posted By: Gilbert Maines

Works real fine. Thanks, I don't go there often.

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Posted By: Steve Murray

Where is that number coming from? There are 5 1987 Registry sets none of which are more than 23% complete.

1.Larry Sweitzer - 1987 Topps 9.02 22.98% 2.28
2 Porkchopper4's 1987 Topps Collection 9.62 18.43% 2.01
3 jaxxr 1987 Topps BB 9.83 10.86% 1.31
4 ajetfan's 1987 Topps set 9.08 3.03% 0.43
5 Titian 9.00 1.77% 0.39

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Posted By: john/z28jd

Its probably from Bonds and McGwire cards as when they were both putting up big numbers tons of their cards were getting graded and the 87 topps set is the first non-updated/traded issue for them

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Posted By: Eric Brehm

The 31,652 number comes from the PSA population report for 1987 Topps. There are a total of 10,748 PSA 9's and 3,081 PSA 10's graded. More than half of the graded cards consist of Barry Bonds rookies (10,499), and Mark McGwire rookies (8,511). A few other star and rookie cards constitute the bulk of the remaining graded cards, each with populations in the hundreds. Many of the common cards have a graded population of only 1, but every card appears to have been graded at least once.

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Posted By: Steve Murray

That makes sense.

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Posted By: peter chao

Grading '87 Topps doesn't make a lot of sense to me. What are you going to do? Spend $10 to grade a .05 Topps common? Suppose it grades a PSA 8, then it will be worth .10 then you would only lose $9.90, however, I suppose the upside is you get closer to completing your registry set. For most of us it would not be an upside.

Peter C.

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Posted By: MVSNYC

peter- you actually started a good thread, let's stay on topic here...

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Posted By: Eric Brehm

Technically 1987 Topps is off topic even for the 'post-war' forum. But it's an interesting question about the cost-effectiveness of grading. I have paid grading fees that were many times the value of the cards in question, mostly for my son's collection (which spans the range from T206 to 2007 Topps), just because we wanted to have the cards authenticated and protected. Sometimes these cards were listed on the PSA set registry and sometimes not.

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Posted By: Fred C

Eric, did you say that there were 87T cards with pops of "1"? For those "pop report" fans wouldn't that make those cards some of the "rarest" out there? Could you imagien possessing a card with a pop report of "1"?

"I'm just saying that T-206s have always been more valuable, that may be the reason that more of them have been graded."

My guess is that there are more T206 collectors than T205 collectors and there are far more T206 cards than T205 cards available. We pretty much all know why there are so many higher grade T206 cards than T205 cards - GOLD. Those T205 borders are tough to find in really nice shape.

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Posted By: JK

Peter,

I believe the reason that 1987 Topps commons are graded is the hope for the elusive 10. If lucky enough to get a 10 on a card, you can sell even a common for $40 or $50. I'd say that would make up for the grading fee.

http://cgi.ebay.com/1987-TOPPS-CHET-LEMON-739-PSA-10-GEM-MINT-TIGERS-POP-1_W0QQitemZ140163778093QQihZ004QQcategoryZ55928QQs sPageNameZWDVWQQrdZ1QQcmdZViewItem

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Posted By: Eric Brehm

Ha ha very funny Fred. Obviously for 1987 Topps, 'Pop 1' doesn't equate to 'rarity', it means that only one has been submitted so far. There are of course millions of ungraded ones out there, and there always will be. And as JK points out, new submissions will be motivated by the possibility of getting a '10', which does carry significant value (despite the fact that PSA has bestowed this rating on over 3000 1987 Topps cards to date, including over 700 Bonds rookie cards).

Regarding pre-modern cards, I suspect that the population of graded cards from the 1950's and 1960's will continue to grow significantly over time, more so than will be the case for pre-war cards. In the case of 1933 Goudey cards, for example, I have done comparisons of population reports at about six month intervals; it appears that the rate of newly graded cards in the higher grades (NM or better) is on the order of one new high grade card, per card #, per year. (That is for grades 7 through 10 combined.) Though not insignificant, that is a relatively small influx of new high grade cards to the market. (And furthermore some of the increases in card populations are undoubtedly due to certain cards being cracked out and resubmitted, sometimes with a bump up in grade.) Seems to me that high grade pre-war cards that are considered low pop now, are likely to remain low pop cards for the forseeable future.

<edited for clarity>

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Posted By: Richard Masson

I'm going to get my pallet of vending cases slabbed...but first I have to lay down the corner on the wooden base.

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Posted By: Jim Dale

While its possible (as the post with the link to the ebay auction dictates) that a common '87 card in PSA 10 can get $40 its not that normal. I happen to really like collecting Ozzie Smith PSA 10 cards and do buy some of the mid 80's early 90's cards that are graded PSA and have gotten many of them below $9 including shipping charges - several have populations of 10 or less in that grade.

The only way an '87 ish common is going to garnish $40 is when someone is playing registry wars wanting to be on top of the registry "that bad."

I found the info on the 80,000 T206 cards graded by PSA interesting - anyone know the numbers for SGC, GAI and BVS? Just curious - then again there are cross overs too they can't police or account for. Still its a great question \ topic and hope we get some more data like we did on the PSA cards.

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Posted By: Eric Brehm

PSA has graded a total of 81,321 T206 cards and 17,308 T205 cards (4.7 to 1 ratio)
SGC has graded a total of 17,308 T206 cards and 11,446 T205 cards (1.5 to 1 ratio)
BGS has graded a total of 2,868 T206 cards and 554 T205 cards (5.2 to 1 ratio)

The PSA and SGC data can easily be broken down by grade, if anyone is interested.

I don't see any population reports at the GAI web site.

Jim Dale - is that the data you were looking for?

I'm not clear what question we are trying to answer here.

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Posted By: peter chao

Initially, I posed several questions, and a lot of useful information has been posted. One question I'm still curious about is whether a lot of T206 cards were graded by companies other than PSA and SGC. The data on BGS grading was useful.

The reason for this inquiry, is that I would think that in the future non Big 2 slabs are going to be cracked and resubmitted to PSA and SGC when people are going to sell.

Peter C.

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Posted By: Eric Brehm

Peter -- oh, ok. I would guess that most BGS-slabbed cards will be sold to people who collect BGS-slabbed cards. I'm sure there will be attempts to cross them over to PSA or SGC as well, to get a better return at time of sale, but I have no idea how many.

I thought there was also a question of how many high grade T206 cards are still out there, unslabbed. I think the only way to approach that question, albeit in a very approximate manner, is to look at the rate at which new cards are being holdered over time. If the rate is very high, there are probably a lot still out there to be graded, and conversely. The only set I have looked at in this regard is 1933 Goudey, as I indicated earlier. I concluded that the rate of population increase for these cards is relatively low, about 1 new high grade card per year, per card in the set.

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Posted By: peter chao

Eric,

Thanks. With regard to the graded T206s, I came to the same conclusion you did in an earlier thread. It would take a lot of work to do the calculations.

Peter C.

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Posted By: Eric Brehm

Actually the way to really estimate the number of ungraded cards of a particular type that exist (borrowing some reasoning from software reliability engineering, which is how I used to make my living), is to track changes in the rate at which new cards are being graded over time (i.e. the first derivative of the cumulative curve). If the rate drops steeply over time, that means that the underlying population of ungraded cards is relatively small, and that those remaining are getting graded fairly rapidly. Similarly, if the rate is relatively constant over time, or declines very slowly, we can deduce that the underlying population of ungraded cards is relatively large. (Of course I am only talking here about the population of cards that eventually will be graded; there is undoubtedly some size population of cards that never will be.) I don't suppose I will be undertaking this analysis myself however, at least not in this lifetime.

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Posted By: peter chao

Eric,

You lost me.

However, there were many Board members that thought that 75% of high grade T206s have already been graded. If that is the case, then the no. of high grade T206s cards being graded by PSA should be dropping virtually every year.

Peter C.

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Posted By: barrysloate

I read this thread and got a splitting headache. What are we talking about?

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Posted By: Eric Brehm

I was talking about trying to figure out how many ungraded cards of a particular type exist, and in particular how many new graded examples of high grade cards in sets such as T206 and 1933 Goudey we can expect to be added to the populations in the future.

Anyhow, Peter got the gist of what I was trying to say -- if the rate at which new graded cards appear declines significantly in the future, we can conclude that most of the ones available to be graded have in fact been graded.

I didn't see the earlier thread on this topic, so I may have jumped in to this in the middle of the conversation. Sorry for all the technical talk.

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Posted By: pas

I have no clue. Too much chaff.

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Posted By: Eric Brehm

The issue is, if you pay thousands of dollars for say, a high grade T206 common card because you believe it to be 'low pop', you would be upset if a year later you discover that the population of the card has doubled. People make buying decisions based on population figures ("for common cards, it's all about the pop" I heard), so you want to know if those figures are stable. That's the question I was trying to address. If that's not important to you, screw it.

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Posted By: peter chao

Eric,

I'm not even sure whether the grading companies compile information on the no. of T206 PSA 8s they grade each year. Maybe, a Board member who is also a PSA grading service member can take a shot at getting the information from them?

Peter C.

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Posted By: Eric Brehm

Peter C., what I have done is compare population reports for sets I am interested in at different points in time, say once every six months. That gives me an idea how much the populations of cards in different grades are changing over time. I have found this useful when looking at high grade low pop 1933 Goudey cards, for example. For T206 cards (HOFers only), I ignore population reports entirely, since I collect them in middle grades and they are all plentiful enough in those grades that it doesn't matter (except Plank and Wagner of course).

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Posted By: Larry

However, there were many Board members that thought that 75% of high grade T206s have already been graded. If that is the case, then the no. of high grade T206s cards being <graded by PSA should be dropping virtually every year.

It is dropping every year. There is only a finite number of T206 out there. They probably peaked around the year 2000. Any reports by them to the contrary would be fiction. That is why CU has expanded into every other type of grading you can think of.....to maximize profits for their shareholders. There is a shareholder report in a .pdf somewhere on the web because I remember reading one last year. Soon they'll probably also be grading bottle caps, beer cans, rubber bands and pocket lint.

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Posted By: Martin Neal

I located an older Psa t205 population report dated January 9th, 2006. Hope this helps.

psa 6 psa 7 psa 8 psa 9 Total graded

1/9/2006 1877 741 168 4 12,195

10/8/2007 2423 854 179 4 17,308

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Posted By: Eric Brehm

Thanks Martin, I'd say that shows a significant increase in graded T205 cards in the last 21 months: a 24% increase for grades 6-9, and a 41% total increase for all grades. I find it a bit surprising that there have been that many new cards graded in that time period. It's hard to extrapolate from just a couple of data points, but I would think that the grading of T205's has a ways to go before it levels off.

The data I have for 1933 Goudey, though it covers a shorter time period (the last 15 months or so), shows only about a 9% increase in population for grades 6-9, and 19% over all grades.