Drum or Uzit?

[Chicago206]

There has been some recent debate/discussion lately on which of these 2 backs is tougher to aquire. Many members here have taken the position that Uzits are now tougher than Drums due to the recent Drum finds. In fact, in an attempt to "reorganize" a backs scarcity list, fellow member CFC actually ranked the Uzit ahead of the Drum.

Now, this is just but a solitary snapshot in time, and may not even mean anything, but with the 2 major auctions in progress (REA and Heritage), I count a total of 12 Uzits for sale (1 of those in a collection of backs), and just 2 Drums in both auctions combined.

Again, this is simply a snapshot in time, and is not meant to be indicative of the market availability as a whole on these 2 great cards. Just thought it was an interesting observation in light of the recent discussions of which is the tougher back.

[cfc1909]

for as long as I can remember it has been know in the hobby that Drum is toughter than Uzit. With several recent finds of Drum totaling 70 you can make a good case for the oppisite.

No matter you will probably not be able to convince a hobby vet the Uzit is tougher.

As for what is avalible now, that will change from auction to auction.

[philliesphan]

there are only three possible Uzits, whereas there are six theoretical Drums of Phillies players.

That said, I've been able to acquire three of the [potential] six Drum Phillies, while I've only been able to acquire one Uzit, with that acquisition having been made approximately ten years ago.

Marc

[Chicago206]

Like I said, I do understand it will change from auction to auction, but its the "lopsidedness" of the current auctions thats such a curiosity. For example, if someone told me there would be 6 times as many Drums available as Uzits at the upcoming national, I would say they were nuts to think that. Perhaps this is simply an anomoly, or perhaps Uzits ARE actually a bit easier to find than Drums. But the example in my opening thread is precisely how one goes about making a "scarcity list". He simply looks at available cards for sale in the marketplace over a period of time. The "period of time" part being the variable. If the next 4 or 5 major auctions also show that more Uzits are being made available than Drums, then its time to redo the list, correct?

[scottglevy]

I really am not sure which back is tougher - Drum is tougher based solely on my personal collecting experience. Over the decades my dad and I have owned several thousand T206s and have seen tens of thousands. And if you made me choose one answer, I'd say that Drum is tougher.

I have purchased lots of cards in the past that have had one or more Uzit cards in them, but I've had to specifically seek out a Drum anytime I wanted to own one.

In the same breath, Drums seem to come in mega-finds of 40 or more cards in one shot. I can think of at least two very recent events like this -- I can also think of one event albeit awhile back like that for Uzit.

I don't think that you can draw an accurate conclusion of a back's rarity based simply on the total number being offered in a small string of auctions. If that was true than Carolina Brights would be about as rare as Uzit because not many have been auctioned recently (we clearly know that this is not the case). To use a fancy term, it is not a statistically significant sample size.

It is additionally difficult to assess rarity based on recent sales because rare backs tend to be hoarded. I know of at least 4 advanced collectors that have many copies of every rare back (except for BL460 and Cobb). Some of these collections would make your head spin if you ever saw them in person.

[Chicago206]

"To use a fancy term, it is not a statistically significant sample size."


I agree 110% with this statement.

[tedzan]

The recent two DRUM finds bring the total to 132 confirmed T206's with DRUM backs....and in my book, relegate this back
to a less scarce status relative to the UZIT backs.

There are only 50 - T206's that have been confirmed with UZIT backs. This factor, alone, suggests that indeed the UZIT's
must be tougher. But, of course we have no knowledge of the actual quantity of how many of these UZIT's were printed.
And, although, there are considerably less UZIT-backed T206's, they may have been printed in greater numbers than DRUM's.

I really doubt this, as we know that the UZIT T206's were printed at the tail-end of the T206 production line (Spring 1911).
While the 132 (or so) DRUM T206's were printed in the timeframe of the Fall/Winter of 1910 (when T206 production was still
going strong).

Furthermore, consider the following UZIT "No-Print" subjects......

(a)....The 6 super-prints (Chance, two Chase's, Red Cobb, Evers, Matty)

(b)....Johnson (pitching)

(c)....CYoung (glove)

(d)....No Minor Leaguers


Conversely, the following major stars were printed with DRUM backs......

Baker
Bender (no trees)
Cobb (red portrait)
Cobb (bat off shoulder)
Evers (yellow sky)
Jennings (both hands)
Johnson (pitching)
Speaker

and 25+ Minor Leaguers

Someone has to hit me with some convincing facts to change my mind.....UZIT's are indeed tougher than DRUM's.


TED Z

[ethicsprof]

Chicago, as you say, you are offering a snapshot in time that is an interesting observation but the data now speaks for the primacy of uzit over
drum on Jim R's most helpful new list methinks.

best,
barry

[cfc1909]

When I posted the scarcity list -it was truly my expierence collecting this set.
Over the years I only remember one other auction that had 12 plus Uzits in it.

I suggest you keep notes for at least a five year period-10 would be better and you will have a good idea of how tough the back ads are. The members can tell you their expierence but for sure yours will be different. To see 12 Uzits offered in your first few months of collecting is not normal.

We have a great advantage-the internet-the old timers probably took years to see 12 Uzits.

I know a collector that had all the set minus Doyle and Wagner. Most of the backs-he setteled for a Drum with the corner missing because they just were not avalible at the time he collected.

[Chicago206]

"To see 12 Uzits offered in your first few months of collecting is not normal."


I believe you. It shocked me to see 12 available at 1 time! I do not have extensive experience with any T206's since I have been collecting since just this past January. I have limited info to go on. I do know that at the Chicago SunTimes show (fairly large event), there were exactly 2 Drums and a single Uzit. And of those 3 total cards, just a single Drum was actually available for sale (other Drum and the Uzit were in an auction). Its just hard to grasp how in these 2 current auctions, Uzits outgun the Drums by such a huge margin!

[ChiefBenderForever]

The market for tough backs is hot, money is tight, people are broke. If someone has been holding onto those Uzits for years now is the time to cash in.

[ullmandds]

rare backs are definitely hot...I've been casually seeking out t206's w/rare backs for almost 20 years...and in my casual experience...I'd say they're both really tough!!! Until recently...I have seen more drums for sale in my life than uzits. There is no absolute answer...they're both very tough!

[JerryTotino]

I realize that population reports are not even close to being 100% accurate because cards are cracked out and either resubmitted to the same grading company hoping for a possible bump or submitted for crossover, but they can at least be used as a high level gauge of populations.

The PSA population reports indicate that approximately 33 UZIT and 60 Drums have been graded. Note: Thanks to Ron for pulling this data.

- 41 of the 60 PSA Drums are from the St. Louis find.

The SGC population reports indicate that approximately 81 UZIT and 62 Drums have been graded.

- 27 of the SGC Drums are from the 2007 Hunt auction.
- 33 of the SGC UZITS are from the 2006 REA auction

Thus, we have a graded total of 114 UZIT and 122 Drums.

At the surface these numbers pretty much indicate a wash, but if you look at the numbers in more detail they may provide some additional insights.

Out of 113,000 T206 graded by PSA, 64,000 are listed as 'unknown back'. Thus, there is no clear evidence of how many of these 64,000 'unknown backs' are either Drum or UZIT. If I had to guess I would say that maybe more UZIT's can be found than Drums in these 64,000 cards because graded Drums were encountered less frequently before the 2 large Drum finds took place and before PSA began to track backs. We know for a fact that the 64,000 'unknown cards' do not contain either of the Drum finds because PSA only recently graded the St Louis find and SGC graded the Hunt find.

Even if we assume that Drum and UZIT exist in approximately the same numbers I think there may be one key factor that denotes a major difference between Drums and Uzits.


- Out of the 62 SGC graded Drums 33 grade Authentic and 8 graded as 10's with only 4 grading vg-ex or
better.

- Out of 81 SGC graded UZIT's 14 grade vg-ex or better.

- Out of 60 PSA Drums only 4 grade higher than vg-ex.

- Out of 33 PSA UZIT's 11 grade higher than vg-ex.

- Total of 25 UZIT's grading higher than vg-ex and only 8 Drums higher than vg-ex.

Condition may be the key factor that separates these very tough backs.

PS - No one knows how many ungraded examples of these backs exist. As these surface it's hard to say what impact it may have on our future perception of these backs.

Jerry

[scottglevy]

Jerry,

A very thoughtful post from someone who is secretly (ok not anymore) a top rare back collector. I agree with your sentiments.

Warm Regards,
Scott

[Bridwell]

Thanks for expanding on that, Jerry. That is a very helpful service to the collectors on this board. Thanks for the SGC data.

Chicago Phil, you can see that a small sample of 1 year or less can vary from the long-term results. Sometimes a card appears multiple times, and then you don't see it for a couple of years. That's part of the fun, and part of the 'hunt' for this collector.

Ron R

[Abravefan11]

Jerry - Thanks for putting that information together. Great data!

One question concerning the condition comparisons.

Originally Posted by JerryTotino

- Out of the 62 SGC graded Drums 33 grade Authentic and 8 graded as 10's with only 4 grading vg-ex or
better.

How many of the 33 SGC A's are like the card pictured below with the top cut off?



It seems one collector greatly skewed the condition comparison of these two tough backs.

[Bridwell]

Hi Tim,

Most of the Drum authentic cards have the tops trimmed off just like you have there. Some very old-time collector had some plastic sheets that were a little too small. Yes, I'm serious believe it or not.

Ron R

[JerryTotino]

Scott,

I am only a minor league back collector compared to others on this board.

Ron,

Thanks again for providing the PSA numbers and for expanding on the SGC Authentic question.


Tim,

To the best of my knowledge 27 out of the 33 SGC Authentic Drum's all came from the same collector and were part of the 2007 Hunt auction. I believe all had the tops trimmed to some degree. I am not certain why the other 6 received the Authentic grade.

Jerry

[Abravefan11]

Jerry,

I just thought that was worth noting when comparing the condition populations of the two backs when so many of one were altered in the same way.

Had that one collector not cut off the top of his cards the numbers would be much different.

[cfc1909]

Ron is right on these A Drums-all were trimmed along the top but still very nice examples.


SlagleDrum.jpgSlagleDrumb.jpg



StrangDrum.jpgStrangDrumb.jpg

[JP]

I owned the "crew cut" SGC Willis Drum for awhile (bought and sold it on the old Net54 and eBay) and it caused me so much pain just to look at it...I couldn't keep it. But I'm sure at the time it was cut it was not even thought twice about. And now we've got generations of kids who don't even take their action figures out of their packages because they are worried about future value...how times have changed.

[B O'Brien]

JP,
I am the current owner of the SGC Willis card. It is by far the ugliest thing in my box, but I think the owner between use hated it more than anyone. He pretty much gave it away. For the money I paid for it, I didn't even think it would show up at the house.
I was able to add it to the HOF backs line for less than a VG American Beauty.
Bob

[JP]

Ha! That's sort of how I felt....was it Larry who I sold it to and you got it from? I feel like $750-1250 was what it was sold for, maybe less. I don't keep very good records....

EDIT: Or maybe it was Larry who I got it from....or Elkins. Too old to remember.....

[chris6net]

I keep reading that the market for tough backs is rising.I mainly collect T206 cards in the SCG range of 30-50,mainly 40 and was wondering what I could expect to pay on average for a Drum or a Uzit as eventually I would like one T206 in every back. Thanks CN

[Chicago206]

Originally Posted by chris6net

I keep reading that the market for tough backs is rising.I mainly collect T206 cards in the SCG range of 30-50,mainly 40 and was wondering what I could expect to pay on average for a Drum or a Uzit as eventually I would like one T206 in every back. Thanks CN

Less than a month ago, I paid $2500 for a PSA 2 Kroh with Drum back. My guess is that a common player Uzit in the same grade with decent eye appeal would probably sell in the $1,000-$1,500 range....but thats just a guess.