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When I see the cards I want for my collection, next time, then the grades won't matter. I will pay multiples of regular value for the right ones. I suspect many other collectors might do the same thing. Not too, too long ago I remember bidding around 5k on a PSA 1 T205 Cobb.....which is about 4-5x the value of a regular one. It was a great card and I should have gone higher. So 10k for a really great looking 3k-4k card doesn't surprise me that much.
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Leon Luckey |
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My avatar is a sketch by my son who is an art school graduate. Some of his sketches and paintings are at https://www.jamesspaethartwork.com/ He is available to do custom drawings in graphite, charcoal and other media. He also sells some of his works as note cards/greeting cards on Etsy under JamesSpaethArt. Last edited by Peter_Spaeth; 12-06-2018 at 08:28 AM. |
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More collectors are coming to their senses and collecting cards and not flips?
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Leon Luckey |
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That explanation was given in 2016 too, FWIW.
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My avatar is a sketch by my son who is an art school graduate. Some of his sketches and paintings are at https://www.jamesspaethartwork.com/ He is available to do custom drawings in graphite, charcoal and other media. He also sells some of his works as note cards/greeting cards on Etsy under JamesSpaethArt. |
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It was important then and more important now . And I think we have been saying buy the card and not the holder since the Gretzky Wagner was graded.
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Leon Luckey Last edited by Leon; 12-06-2018 at 08:41 AM. Reason: changed wording... |
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I can't imagine EVER referring to my collection as a "portfolio". Good grief. Seems to me the "justification machine" is on full tilt right now. What's next - extensive restoration?!?! |
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By "last few" do you mean since the 1980's? Because I've heard cards referred to as investments since at least then. |
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Yes, but pay a sensible price for it, not an off the charts world record.
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My avatar is a sketch by my son who is an art school graduate. Some of his sketches and paintings are at https://www.jamesspaethartwork.com/ He is available to do custom drawings in graphite, charcoal and other media. He also sells some of his works as note cards/greeting cards on Etsy under JamesSpaethArt. |
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T206 Young portrait is a high demand card, this example was particularly nice, the price was way over the top, and the T206 market continues to be overheated.
A confluence of all those factors at the same time. |
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We learned nothing from 2016 prices, it seems. People defended off the charts prices then and will defend off the charts prices now.
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My avatar is a sketch by my son who is an art school graduate. Some of his sketches and paintings are at https://www.jamesspaethartwork.com/ He is available to do custom drawings in graphite, charcoal and other media. He also sells some of his works as note cards/greeting cards on Etsy under JamesSpaethArt. Last edited by Peter_Spaeth; 12-06-2018 at 02:16 PM. |
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There are lessons to be learned, for sure, but I don't believe the premise that a 5-figure Cy Young 5 is akin to a 6-figure Clemente 8.
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I think there are fewer players in the deeper end of the pool than people appreciate. If two or three of them decide there is something they must have prices can go nuts very quickly. Same thing if some extraordinary rich dude decides he wants to start spending money on cards with both hands. I think the introduction of new rich guys - who don’t know about historical valuation and really doesn’t give a whit - can really change things quickly.
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Sam, the 2016 run up involved plenty of cards in 4 and 5 figures. I'm not sure what's happening now -- I was quite sure back in 2016 because it was so obvious and pervasive -- I only note my skepticism when cards suddenly go off the rails.
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My avatar is a sketch by my son who is an art school graduate. Some of his sketches and paintings are at https://www.jamesspaethartwork.com/ He is available to do custom drawings in graphite, charcoal and other media. He also sells some of his works as note cards/greeting cards on Etsy under JamesSpaethArt. Last edited by Peter_Spaeth; 12-06-2018 at 04:36 PM. |
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Successful transactions with peter spaeth, don's cards, vwtdi, wolf441, 111gecko, Clydewally, Jim, SPMIDD, MattyC, jmb, botn, E107collector, begsu1013, and a few others. |
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1. It's Cy Young
2. It's T206 3. It's a Portrait Pose 4. It's a stellar example for the grade (I wouldn't think twice if this was in a 5.5 or 6 holder). I think Cy has actually been undervalued for years...now it's turn to get a light shined on him (like we've previously seen on Cobb, WaJo, Matty). Speaker, Lajoie on deck. Last edited by MVSNYC; 12-07-2018 at 07:02 AM. |
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Speaker saw a small jump a few months back and has really cooled off. |
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The other night, four (4) very nice looking, mid-grade, common-back, T206 HOF portraits sold for relatively massive amounts. Listed below is the card, its grade, what it sold for, and -- according to VCP -- what the highest that card in that grade has every sold for, at auction (I dont trust all "BIN"s), prior to the other night's auction: Frank Chance Red, PSA 6, sold for: $1,851- Prior Highest PSA 6 Sale: $1,365 (Memory Lane, 5/6/17)** (a 35.6% increase) Christy Mathewson, PSA 5, sold for: $6,200- Prior Highest PSA 5 Sale: $3,600 (REA, 5/6/18) (a 72.2% increase) Walter Johnson, PSA 5, sold for: $7,713- Prior Highest PSA 5 Sale: $3,608 (PWCC, 6/8/16) (a 113% increase) Cy Young, PSA 5, sold for: $10,010- Prior Highest PSA 5 Sale: $4,000 (PWCC 9/8/15) (a 150% increase) ** Note that the same exact Chance card, in an SGC 6 flip, was sold at a PWCC auction 11/12/17 for $1,007 (an 83.8% increase in 1 year and a cross from SGC to PSA) I dont know why these four cards, and specifically the Wajo and Young, both of which sold for double their prior record high, went for so much. But these results are not normal. These are not uncommon cards, even with great eye appeal. Perhaps Mr. Deep Pockets did show up to this auction and didn't mind spending $10k for a previously $3500 card. But remember it took at least two bidders to get these cards to where they sold. Also, you would expect that someone (Mr. Deep Pockets), who was in a position to (over)spend $10k on a card, would be wise enough to know that $10k was a wee-bit steep compared to all prior sales going back to 2008 (and even if they don't have VCP, they can go on ebay, or PSA, or google it -- the info is out there). Look, maybe there are plausible, innocent, or market-based explanations for this. Indeed, I sure hope so. Or maybe there was foul play. All i can tell you is keep your eyes wide open because it is VERY noteworthy when relatively common cards sell for 100%+ all prior sales. Last edited by Rhotchkiss; 12-07-2018 at 09:50 AM. |
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It is also interesting to note that numerous opinions on here come from people who own/are affiliated with AH’s or who derive income from the hobby think this is all normal and natural.
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I don't understand the reflexive defense of highly unusual prices. Remember 2016 and proceed with caution. In this hobby, legitimate prices rarely, if ever, skyrocket overnight.
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My avatar is a sketch by my son who is an art school graduate. Some of his sketches and paintings are at https://www.jamesspaethartwork.com/ He is available to do custom drawings in graphite, charcoal and other media. He also sells some of his works as note cards/greeting cards on Etsy under JamesSpaethArt. Last edited by Peter_Spaeth; 12-07-2018 at 01:21 PM. |
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By the way, Rhotchkiss' hypothetical "Mr. Deep Pockets" was the winner of both the Young and the WaJo cards: eBay ID "8***g (57)," but someone else won the Matty: "e***e (359)."
And I'm the idiot who held the prior record for most dollars spent on a WaJo portrait in 5. I won it from PWCC in June of '16 (as Rhotchkiss reported) for $3608. Instead of buying that summer I should have sold my PSA 7 Koufax and PSA 8 Ryan RCs! Here's my WaJo (I had been hunting for a nice 5 for over 2 years): WaJo_09_PSA.jpg And this past summer, I finally landed my Matty portrait at the Cleveland National for $3K (cash) from a dealer from Long Island: matty09_PSA5.jpg Although they may not be as nice as the examples just sold by PWCC (my wife chose the PWCC ones over mine when I asked her to compare both pairs - dammit!), I don't think that my WaJo and Matty are only half as nice as the new record setters. In retrospect, I'm very happy to have gotten my cards when I did, and for what they cost me! |
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I don't have a theory yet, just on alert.
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My avatar is a sketch by my son who is an art school graduate. Some of his sketches and paintings are at https://www.jamesspaethartwork.com/ He is available to do custom drawings in graphite, charcoal and other media. He also sells some of his works as note cards/greeting cards on Etsy under JamesSpaethArt. Last edited by Peter_Spaeth; 12-07-2018 at 08:23 PM. |
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I can't say that i've followed this thread very closely, but wouldn't "Mr. Deep Pockets" be going for something better than a PSA 5. Why stop at 5 when money doesn't matter? I know i wouldn't stop at a PSA 5 if i had the dough. There's a decent pop over PSA 5.
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-Dar.ius Hou.seal |
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First of all there can always be something nefarious going on as we have all seen so many times. But when I put my thinking cap on, for this card, it just doesn't seem like it would be one to try to corner the market on and raise all prices. As for why someone with all the money would stop at a 5 is because this 5 probably looks better than most 6s or 7s. I almost guarantee I would take it over most higher grade cards. Maybe the smart money bought the card they thought looked best and kept their other money for other cards?
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Leon Luckey |
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For those who weren't around in the early to mid '90's when I began looking for the 1925 Exhibits Gehrig rookie, they were largely nowhere to be found, until finally I happened upon a VG example at the '98 National. What had occurred was that the people that had them knew there weren't very many and how significant they were. Few were therefore willing to sell until prices soared into what these collectors believed the card's proper value was. As prices did begin to rise to these levels, more came out. I believe exactly the same thing is happening with the '39 R303A Ted Williams rookie. There aren't that many around, and virtually all of them are in "strong hands," with those that have them realizing the immense significance of the rookie card of what is the first or second best hitter of all time (depending upon your up-to-date sabermetric measuring stick). These collectors don't need the money at recent price levels, know they have a far better looking and tremendously scarcer Ted rookie than the '39 Playball, and won't be parting with them anytime soon at anything like "current" book values. IMHO, as one who predicted the rise of the rarer Cobb rookie post cards, you'll see more of the R303A rookie come out when VG or even G examples are in the $7500+ range, and even more when they hit $10,000+. Look for the far rarer '39 V351 to soar far higher. The sale of the Young card fits into the above analysis due to its' great centering and tremendously clean appearance--regardless of technical grade, I don't believe there are that many to match it. Plus, the newer card market is out of whack with the vintage market. Either the former is due to have a precipitous fall, the latter a substantial climb, or a combination of both. Just my thoughts and best wishes to all. Larry Last edited by ls7plus; 12-17-2018 at 04:15 PM. |
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Larry, very cogent thoughts as always, but what you said was also true a year ago, and two, and three, and so on.
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My avatar is a sketch by my son who is an art school graduate. Some of his sketches and paintings are at https://www.jamesspaethartwork.com/ He is available to do custom drawings in graphite, charcoal and other media. He also sells some of his works as note cards/greeting cards on Etsy under JamesSpaethArt. |
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However, I haven't seen (although I don't closely monitor it) the significant falling off of the newer card market which must, virtually inevitably, occur (after all, these cards will all become "vintage" at some point in time). It will happen, as it did in the early to mid-'90's new card market, because the two are not independent, but are in fact linked. Today's current star will inevitably become yesterday's hero, and to compete pricewise, their actual stature, as well as the supply of their cards, will have to match up with the vintage players we value so highly to sustain even the current prices. Which is why, as you know, I certainly wouldn't bet the farm on PSA 10 '93 SP Jeters priced at $76K+ or one of 50 Mike Trout refractor rookies graded 8.5 at $35K. Sorry, new card guys, but it has to happen! As I've also stated, however, this hobby is meant to be enjoyed. As long as it is doing that for you, more power to you regardless of your preferences, Sincerely, Larry Last edited by ls7plus; 12-17-2018 at 06:46 PM. |
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I hear you Larry but from what I have seen the "float" has always been relatively low compared to the overall supply, just the nature of the hobby, most good cards at any given time are in the hands of collectors not looking to sell them.
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My avatar is a sketch by my son who is an art school graduate. Some of his sketches and paintings are at https://www.jamesspaethartwork.com/ He is available to do custom drawings in graphite, charcoal and other media. He also sells some of his works as note cards/greeting cards on Etsy under JamesSpaethArt. Last edited by Peter_Spaeth; 12-17-2018 at 07:18 PM. |
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