Clemente: Inner circle of the elite, or on his way?

[the 'stache]

Originally Posted by tiger8mush

Many top-10 lists look similar to this, with all 10 having played in the last 100 years yet only 1 (sometimes 2) has played in the last 50 years. Were ball players really that much better in the early-mid 20th century? Or do we tend to inflate the legacies those players left behind? In 50 years from now, will Maddux and Clemens and Pedro and Randy Johnson and Arod sneak into these lists? Or have we been watching bad baseball the past 50 years?

sorry to get off-topic, just making an observation

No, it's ok. Interesting point. I've noticed it, too.

After my list I had that point about guys I seriously considered for the top ten list.

Cy Young is really hard to keep off, but I'd like to have seen him pitch in the live ball era.

Eddie Collins is just outside my top ten.

Two of the modern era guys I struggled to keep off were Mike Schmidt and Johnny Bench. Bench doesn't have the WAR of the others, but he's one of those guys where I don't feel the numbers tell the whole story. I just can't help but feel they're low.

Consider his 1970 season. '70 was a bit of an outlier for the National League-4.52 runs were scored per game; league average for the six years before and after were 3.91 and 4.04, respectively. So Bench's offensive numbers appear a tick more impressive than they would have in any of those other 12 seasons.

He played 158 games (139 as a catcher), hit .293, scored 97 runs, had 35 doubles, 4 triples, 45 home runs, 148 RBI, 355 total bases, and slashed .345/.587/.932, good for a 141 OPS +.

He was an All Star, won the Gold Glove (1.8 dWAR), and NL MVP. Yet, that's only worth 7.4 WAR (per BBR)?

How many catchers not named Mike Piazza get 84 extra base hits in a season? Oh wait, Piazza's best was 73 XBH.

In 219 PAs with runners in scoring position, Bench hit .318 with 104 RBI and a 1.071 OPS. That's insane! He had a .990 OPS with men on. .319 with a .995 OPS in high leverage situations. .304 with a .970 OPS in medium leverage situations.

And he was only worth 7.4 wins? I also feel his 1972 season, where he's awarded an 8.6 WAR, is low. His average was lower-.270-but, he walked 100 times. He hit 40 home runs, drove in 125. Slashed .379/.541/.920. His OPS + is 166. All Star, Gold Glove and MVP again.

Joe Morgan is another I have a hard time keeping off. First off, the guy was a walking machine. 1,865 free passes in his career. He hit .271 career, and when he swung the bat, he could mash. Remember, that's an era of low scoring. Between '72 and '76, Morgan hit .303, averaged 113 runs scored, 22 home runs, 85 RBI, 62 stolen bases, 118 walks, slashing .431/.499/.930 with a 163 OPS+. That's his actual averages, not 162 game averages. And, he averaged 9.6 WAR per season for those five years. He had five other All Star caliber seasons outside that five year period (that being WAR of 5+), but during that half decade, he was historically good with WARs of 9.3, 9.3, 8.6, 11.0, and 9.6.

[Tabe]

Originally Posted by the 'stache

He was an All Star, won the Gold Glove (1.8 dWAR), and NL MVP. Yet, that's only worth 7.4 WAR (per BBR)?

How many catchers not named Mike Piazza get 84 extra base hits in a season? Oh wait, Piazza's best was 73 XBH.

In 219 PAs with runners in scoring position, Bench hit .318 with 104 RBI and a 1.071 OPS. That's insane! He had a .990 OPS with men on. .319 with a .995 OPS in high leverage situations. .304 with a .970 OPS in medium leverage situations.

And he was only worth 7.4 wins? I also feel his 1972 season, where he's awarded an 8.6 WAR, is low. His average was lower-.270-but, he walked 100 times. He hit 40 home runs, drove in 125. Slashed .379/.541/.920. His OPS + is 166. All Star, Gold Glove and MVP again.

Joe Morgan is another I have a hard time keeping off. First off, the guy was a walking machine. 1,865 free passes in his career. He hit .271 career, and when he swung the bat, he could mash. Remember, that's an era of low scoring. Between '72 and '76, Morgan hit .303, averaged 113 runs scored, 22 home runs, 85 RBI, 62 stolen bases, 118 walks, slashing .431/.499/.930 with a 163 OPS+. That's his actual averages, not 162 game averages. And, he averaged 9.6 WAR per season for those five years. He had five other All Star caliber seasons outside that five year period (that being WAR of 5+), but during that half decade, he was historically good with WARs of 9.3, 9.3, 8.6, 11.0, and 9.6.

This is the problem I have with WAR. The numbers seem so completely random at times. And there are some guys that seem to just tick all the right boxes for WAR and end up with a number that doesn't pass the smell test. To use a guy mentioned earlier in this thread - Gene Tenace in 1974 hit .211 with an OPS of .775. WAR of 5.0. Really?

Joe Morgan was a great player - for about 5 years anyway - and WAR just loves him. He ticks all the right boxes. But a WAR of 11.0 in 1975? OK. But then he goes out and improves in 1976 and his WAR *drops* to 9.6. Sure thing.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Pitching WAR is weird too. Fangraphs has Trevor Bauer as the best pitcher in baseball, even though (for example) his BABIP against is higher than the rest of the top 10. It also ranks Jon Gray with an ERA of 5.5 as the 12th best pitcher.

[the 'stache]

Originally Posted by Tabe

This is the problem I have with WAR. The numbers seem so completely random at times. And there are some guys that seem to just tick all the right boxes for WAR and end up with a number that doesn't pass the smell test. To use a guy mentioned earlier in this thread - Gene Tenace in 1974 hit .211 with an OPS of .775. WAR of 5.0. Really?

Joe Morgan was a great player - for about 5 years anyway - and WAR just loves him. He ticks all the right boxes. But a WAR of 11.0 in 1975? OK. But then he goes out and improves in 1976 and his WAR *drops* to 9.6. Sure thing.

Agree with everything you just said.

The variance in his WAR between 1975 and 1976 appears due to defensive regression. He went from a 2.0 dWAR to a 0.4. But he won the Gold Glove both years, so the guys watching the games didn't see a precipitous drop off in his defense.

Sometimes I love WAR, but sometimes I hate it. I don't think there's ever been a more divisive metric in baseball. It's great for comparing players within one era, but I find it maddeningly (is that even a word?) flawed when you compare players from even one generation apart. And the defensive component of it....let me just say I don't get it, and I'll walk away.

The very fact that WAR is computed differently by BBR and Fangraphs only adds to my nervous tick. When it comes to statistical analysis, I'm a very precise guy (shocking, right?). I don't like that I have to qualify which site I'm taking my information from when entering into a discussion. The talking heads at BBR and Fangraphs need to lock themselves in a room, agree upon one formula, and then blow smoke for the world to see, like when the Pope has been named by the College of Cardinals.

[the 'stache]

Though his stay in the second league (the NL) was brief because of when he switched in his career, I think it's safe to say Roy Halladay had real success in both leagues. He won a Cy Young, then finished 2nd, 3rd, and 5th place twice in other seasons. He moved to the NL with the Phillies, and didn't miss a beat. Won the 2010 Cy Young, and finished second the next season.

From 2002 to 2011, he was about as good as you could get in baseball. 170-75, 2.94 ERA (with an impressive 148 ERA+), 63 complete games, 18 shut outs, 1,699 Ks against 372 BBs in 2,194 IP. Not a large post season resume, but a 2.37 ERA across 5 starts including only the second no hitter in playoff history, plus a perfect game....2 Cy Youngs.

He should get serious consideration for the Hall.

[Tabe]

Originally Posted by the 'stache

The very fact that WAR is computed differently by BBR and Fangraphs only adds to my nervous tick. When it comes to statistical analysis, I'm a very precise guy (shocking, right?). I don't like that I have to qualify which site I'm taking my information from when entering into a discussion. The talking heads at BBR and Fangraphs need to lock themselves in a room, agree upon one formula, and then blow smoke for the world to see, like when the Pope has been named by the College of Cardinals.

Computed differently and essentially in secret. You can't just punch in some numbers and check their work.

[the 'stache]

Originally Posted by Tabe

Computed differently and essentially in secret. You can't just punch in some numbers and check their work.

And it makes me nuts!

[the 'stache]

Originally Posted by ls7plus

Don't forget Rob Deer.

Best wishes,

Larry

Originally Posted by the 'stache

Or, Rob Deer. The Brewers always had one of those guys when I was growing up. Gorman Thomas was the first. Nobody in baseball had more homers than Stormin' Gorman's 175 between 1978 and 1982. But he had a 27.5% K rate (and 28.6% for his career). I'll never understand how he could play center field. He wasn't exactly swift of foot. He looked like a weekend softball player. BBR lists him at 6'2" 210 lbs. I think that second number was being a little generous. Deer stepped in when Gorman left town. 215 home runs between '86 and '93 for Milwaukee, and a few years in Detroit. He also K'd 1,298 times in 3,645 ABs-a whopping 35.6%.

I watched Deer whiff many times before leaving for Texas.

[Tabe]

Originally Posted by the 'stache

And it makes me nuts!

Add it to the long list of things, right?

[the 'stache]

Originally Posted by Tabe

Add it to the long list of things, right?

Hey now! I'm nuts in a fun way, not a "get the straight jacket, Uncle Wilbur is playing Duck Duck Goose with his imaginary friends again" way.