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  #1  
Old 01-03-2010, 10:42 PM
Pup6913
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Default Is this card really worth that????

Guy pulled the auction with about 6 days left and the just over $3k on bids. Now a starting price of $9500. I understand the card is an error but is it really worth that Is it as rare as the Hoblitzell No Stats? Some of those in grade 4 barely top the $10k mark. Why not send it of to an auction house to get a realized value?

I think someone may have a pursuaded hand in new price to protect their interest. Just my opinion.

http://cgi.ebay.com/1911-T205-Christ...item19b8f01bf4


Also does smething smell funny about this auction? Heres the bid list and strangely enough a new member with 0 feedback and really deep pockets bid. Wheres he at when I need him to bid up my cards??

http://offer.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.d...m=110475324700

Last edited by Pup6913; 01-03-2010 at 10:52 PM. Reason: more
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  #2  
Old 01-03-2010, 11:12 PM
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Absolutely not worth that much...It is not an error...it is just a Matty with a Cycle back and should bring a Matty price with the normal Cycle premium. I think that the hype that this card generated is just odd. It is not a single print and not as rare as the other single prints, errors, etc.

Joshua
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  #3  
Old 01-04-2010, 01:52 AM
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I can't believe he pulled it and relisted. Last I looked, it was around $2500.00. Although the new person has deep pockets, it doesn't appear that he is in the ballpark of what the new listing price is. Unless the person that bought the graded 3 last year for $9503 is looking for an upgrade, I don't see this selling for that price.

r/
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  #4  
Old 01-04-2010, 07:17 AM
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I have never heard of this. Is this story true that someone paid $1k for a card and it took 30 years to be recognized as an error to make his money back? I see where he got the steep price also.


The following information was found at the OldJudge Auction site, Nov. 2008:
"Never seen before, the rear of the Cycle backed card shows Mathewson having lost only one game in 1908 rather than the 11 he lost and is recorded on every other T205 Mathewson known. The type on the back is extremely dark and clear and this is not a case of the type not coming out or a digit being rubbed out. The card was discovered by long time Indianapolis collector Ted Koch at a show in 1975 or 1976 and was purchased then for the princely sum of $1,000. The card has, as previously mentioned a fairly tough Cycle back, and there is a possibility that may have something to do with the error. At this time the card must be considered the rarest of T205 variations easily surpassing the “Hoblitzell”. The card has a worn upper left corner and a couple of minor specks in the gold border. No creases and a very nice appearing card.
Winning Bid $9,503."
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  #5  
Old 01-04-2010, 07:18 AM
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You don't come across lottery tickets that often that are winners.

If it was mine and I was forced to sell it, I would take it to a real auction house...
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  #6  
Old 01-04-2010, 07:25 AM
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I wish the guy would have let the auction run (or at least sent it to major auction as Andrew suggested) so we can put an end to the "how much should it be worth" discussions on this card since the Lipsett sale seems not to be trusted due to the mis-information in the listing (it's not the rarest T205 variation; Hobby no stats is rarer).

The guy did already have 4 bids over $2500 so we know the market doesn't agree with the philosophy that it should be valued like any similar print HOFer with a Cycle back. That's not really surprising considering the precedent of cards like DeMitt, O'Hara and Wilhelm which are valued well above what they "should" be if looking only at populations, as collectors have always placed a premium on these textual variations.

Disclaimer: I own one of these. Heck - if his sells for $9500+ mine will be next for sale
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  #7  
Old 01-04-2010, 07:29 AM
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Lew was wrong on the oldjudge website...there are as many Cycle Mattys as there are other Cycles. They all contain the misprint. Hoblitzell no stats is much more rare (in fact, there are several rarer cards). I have seen many Cycle backed Mattys over the years...the only thing driving the price right now is hype and collector fervor over trying to get a supposedly rare error card. I repeat, this is no rarer than any other Cycle backed card. People who are paying these prices, just need to wait...others will come around.

Just to put some more perspective on this...a large Cycle find was uncovered about five years ago...included in the find was at least two Cycle Mattys (I suspect there was three but one was a private sale). According to my notes, in the last three years since this hype started, I have seen at least 9 different Cycle Mattys sell at auction, ebay, or privately. In the same time, I have only seen two different Hoblitzell no stats sell.

I have no problem putting a premium on the card since collectors want to be completists with their sets and competition will drive the price. I feel that I would not pay that much for that particular card. Would I pay a small premium (if I did not already own one), yes, but a small premium. Not $9500.

Joshua

Last edited by Wite3; 01-04-2010 at 07:33 AM. Reason: clarification
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  #8  
Old 01-04-2010, 07:54 AM
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The two highest bids came from zero feedback, brand new accounts. That's all you need to know about this auction.
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  #9  
Old 01-04-2010, 08:21 AM
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Default value...imo

Give this Matty-Cycle about 1-2 yrs for everyone to understand it is not rare or even scarce, and it will come back to where it should be. Maybe about "xxxx" for a nice vg-ex example. Those collectors in between now and then will lose money buying it. All imho......
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Last edited by Leon; 01-04-2010 at 09:27 AM. Reason: amended valuation as I really don't know
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  #10  
Old 01-04-2010, 08:42 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Leon View Post
Give this Matty-Cycle about 1-2 yrs for everyone to understand it is not rare or even scarce, and it will come back to where it should be. Maybe about 1k or less for a nice vg-ex example. Those collectors in between now and then will lose money buying it. All imho......
It's probably equally as tough as the Wilhelm "suffered" variation which (last I checked) sells $2k+ in decent shape, and then add a kicker for it being a top tier HOFer. Rarity is all relative - it's certainly much rarer then a T205 Matty with a regular 37-11 back or a T206 O'Hara. For a T205 set collector, it's a pretty rare variation...

Again, I wish he would have sold it at major auction so all of this conjecture could be moot.

Josh - you mentioned you've seen 9 in the last 3 years; how many T205 Matty's have you seen over the same stretch with the regular 37-11 back?
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Last edited by Matt; 01-04-2010 at 08:45 AM.
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  #11  
Old 01-04-2010, 08:51 AM
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Default you're probably correct

Quote:
Originally Posted by Matt View Post
It's probably equally as tough as the Wilhelm "suffered" variation which (last I checked) sells $2k+ in decent shape, and then add a kicker for it being a top tier HOFer. Rarity is all relative - it's certainly much rarer then a T205 Matty with a regular 37-11 back or a T206 O'Hara. For a T205 set collector, it's a pretty rare variation...

Again, I wish he would have sold it at major auction so all of this conjecture could be moot.

Josh - you mentioned you've seen 9 in the last 3 years; how many T205 Matty's have you seen over the same stretch with the regular 37-11 back?
Matt- You are probably closer to me on valuation as I don't follow T205's, in particular, very much. I just checked my Matty and it's a Piedmont . I guess there is no windfall for me .
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  #12  
Old 01-04-2010, 09:25 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Matt View Post
Josh - you mentioned you've seen 9 in the last 3 years; how many T205 Matty's have you seen over the same stretch with the regular 37-11 back?
About the same as those without a Cycle back.
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  #13  
Old 01-04-2010, 11:22 AM
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Like Matt, I was hoping the auction wouldn't have ended (albeit, I figured it would).

I'd say it is probably a bit easier to find than the Wilhelm "suffered"; I can recall only seeing about five or so examples of the Wilhelm in the past two years.
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  #14  
Old 01-04-2010, 11:59 AM
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Does someone have a Hobby no stats in vgex to trade even up for my Matty Cycle back in vgex?
I didn't think so. I'd like to think the $9500 is a reasonable price (and a nice profit since I bought mine for $200) but the Matty cycle back is worth a premium but not more than 2x.
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  #15  
Old 01-04-2010, 12:17 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tbob View Post
Does someone have a Hobby no stats in vgex to trade even up for my Matty Cycle back in vgex?
I didn't think so. I'd like to think the $9500 is a reasonable price (and a nice profit since I bought mine for $200) but the Matty cycle back is worth a premium but not more than 2x.
I don't think anyone here would argue it should be worth what a Hobby no stats is. There's a world of space in between what a Hobby no stats is worth and what the card would normally be worth if it didn't have the 37-1 variation. That's where all the conjecture comes in.
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  #16  
Old 01-04-2010, 01:51 PM
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Was there excessive lobbying to the grading companies to get this added?


As an avid collector of T205's, I would not pay anything other than the normal Cycle premium for this card at best.

Matt E.

Last edited by Matt E.; 01-04-2010 at 01:52 PM.
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  #17  
Old 01-04-2010, 02:08 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Matt E. View Post
As an avid collector of T205's, I would not pay anything other than the normal Cycle premium for this card at best.
This is getting humorous. In the sake of disclosure, it should be noted that Turner contacted me this morning in the interest of buying mine as you need it for your set. People should know your comment may have been influenced by a desire to keep the price down.
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Last edited by Matt; 01-04-2010 at 02:09 PM.
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  #18  
Old 01-04-2010, 02:20 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Matt View Post
This is getting humorous. In the sake of disclosure, it should be noted that Turner contacted me this morning in the interest of buying mine as you need it for your set. People should know your comment may have been influenced by a desire to keep the price down.

If Turner wants to buy and it to the set fine with me. His card budget is bigger than mine right now. I figured you would be coming on to bust my chops about my thoughts. Trust me, my comments cannot keep a card price down. We are two separate collectors.

Sake of disclosure? you sound like Judge Judy.

Again, I would not pay anything additional for this made up variation IMO. I will take my chances and find it at a card show.

Last edited by Matt E.; 01-04-2010 at 03:59 PM.
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  #19  
Old 01-04-2010, 02:28 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Matt E. View Post
As an avid collector of T205's, I would not pay anything other than the normal Cycle premium for this card at best.

Matt E.
I'm just a neophyte when it comes to the T205 set so I appreciate the guidance. I was just about to offer 10K for an example of this Cycle Matty, thanks!
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  #20  
Old 01-04-2010, 02:30 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by calvindog View Post
I'm just a neophyte when it comes to the T205 set so I appreciate the guidance. I was just about to offer 10K for an example of this Cycle Matty, thanks!
Paying the additional premium for the Cycle back would be pushing it on second thought.

Matt E.
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  #21  
Old 01-04-2010, 02:44 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by calvindog View Post
I'm just a neophyte when it comes to the T205 set so I appreciate the guidance. I was just about to offer 10K for an example of this Cycle Matty, thanks!
Yikes!

CD.... try offering his opening bid of $9,500 to end the auction. Trying to save you five hundo.

Matt E.

Last edited by Matt E.; 01-04-2010 at 02:45 PM.
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  #22  
Old 01-04-2010, 04:17 PM
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Yikes!

CD.... try offering his opening bid of $9,500 to end the auction. Trying to save you five hundo.

Matt E.
Matt- I think Jeff was just kidding
tbob
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  #23  
Old 01-04-2010, 04:20 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Matt View Post
I don't think anyone here would argue it should be worth what a Hobby no stats is. There's a world of space in between what a Hobby no stats is worth and what the card would normally be worth if it didn't have the 37-1 variation. That's where all the conjecture comes in.

Matt- My response was tongue in cheek. I think you're right about the conjecture, but I just don't think the Matty 37-1 is either a variation or worth a bundle. If it is, and the market bears it, I will gladly sell mine and replace it in my set with a Sweet Caporal backed card.
tbob
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  #24  
Old 01-04-2010, 05:00 PM
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To those who do not consider this a variation and/or worth a significant premium, please consider this a standing offer to buy your copy for the "normal" price of a Cycle backed Mathewson. Should be about $700-$800 in VG. In fact, I will even add another 10% to make it worth your trouble. There are at least two people who have responded in this thread so far who own these and do not consider them worth a major premium. Just tell me where to send the check
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  #25  
Old 01-04-2010, 05:22 PM
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I wouldn't even consider $700-$800. I picked up this card for $75.00 in the back of the SCD about thirteen years ago. Has it appreciated? Yes. To $700.00 or $800.00? No. The other total doesn't even merit consideration, but all too often on eBay the price asked for is either a blatant try to find a pigeon or a desperate cry for help.
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Last edited by Brian Van Horn; 01-04-2010 at 06:21 PM.
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  #26  
Old 01-04-2010, 05:33 PM
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Quote:
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Matt- I think Jeff was just kidding
tbob
So was I,, sarcasm never translates well.. should have included one of these
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  #27  
Old 01-04-2010, 05:36 PM
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So it's a deal?

The $700-$800 is the approximate price of a VG condition Mathewson with a 1.5-2x multiplier for the Cycle back. Of course nobody is actually going to sell me one for this price. I am simply illustrating the point that the people who claim to believe that this is not a variation and/or worth a significant premium know that their beliefs are not in line with the market for this card or any of the other similar widely accepted variations which have been previously discussed. I was just giving them the opportunity to put their cards where their mouths are, so to speak. As yet, the offers have not begun rolling into the old inbox, strangely enough.
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  #28  
Old 01-04-2010, 05:39 PM
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I think the gist of this thread is at $9500 the card is more likely to go down than up...maybe not to $700-800 but certainly half or less of its current value is realistic.
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  #29  
Old 01-04-2010, 05:57 PM
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I do not track every card...I can say that at any given time, there are usually 3-4 T205 Mattys for sale (on ebay, on auction sites, or through websites)...I agree with Bob, I would gladly take my T205 Matty Cycle and trade it straight up for a Hobby no stats....like Leon, I can see this card going way down soon...people drive the price (Billy Ripken, etc.) and then it crashes when the demand dries up. Just my opinion.

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  #30  
Old 01-04-2010, 06:18 PM
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Some quotes are incorrect here. Cycles do not carry a premium. They sell for the same amount as a Hassan, Piedmont, AB, HLC, ect. Those of us who buy T205's regularly should know this. If they do carry premiums then I have purchased about 20 of these for 1/2 of what they are worth in the last yr and would like to sell them and double my money.

Until those Cycle Mattys are reslabbed appropriatly we will not have a accurate POP count thus driving a rise in $. Those who don't track sales on these from the past are the ones who will be buying till the market cools drastically.

I would be willing to Pay about $2000-2500 for one in SGC grade 4-5. May be a while till I find one but I can wait. At this time I have some personal issues to attend to but after that is done if anyone has one out there let me know. I think my offer is fair, but then again maybe not. I am sure no one will have one to sell for that.

Also like Calvindog and myself pointed out the most disturbing part is the mysterious 0 feedback high bidder that jacked up the price.
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  #31  
Old 01-04-2010, 06:25 PM
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I don't collect T205's and was wondering is there a premium attached to any
of the backs line like there is in the t206's? If so what multiples. Sorry to get
off topic, but just curious.
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  #32  
Old 01-04-2010, 06:34 PM
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I don't know the multipuls but here are the ones that carry a premium according to what I have bought in the last couple yrs.
  1. Hindu
  2. Broadleaf
  3. Drum
  4. Blanks

AB, and Cycles fluctuate but not more than a normal backed card.
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  #33  
Old 01-04-2010, 06:43 PM
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DESCRIPTION:
"Shortprinted 1911 T205 Cycle back card of Boston Red Sox player Ed Karger. PSA 5, just a hint of corner wear on this well centered card. The Cycle back is pretty tough in the T205 set and generally commands a 1.5-2X multiplier, making for a tough front/back combination here. Excellent opportunity for the T205 speacialists."

This is straight from the most recent B&L auction. I am not a back collector so the comments contrary to the above from Andrew mean little to me but who is right here? And Andrew, I am not saying your wrong, just curious.

Sorry to take this somewhat off topic to our Matty debate and it maybe with respect to the fairly recent find of Cycle backed T-205's, that time will really tell if there is a premium.

Last edited by sox1903wschamp; 01-04-2010 at 06:45 PM. Reason: Grammar...
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  #34  
Old 01-04-2010, 06:46 PM
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WRT a general Cycle back premium, I think everyone is right - on common cards I have seen little to no premium and on star cards and SPs I have noticed the premium.
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  #35  
Old 01-04-2010, 06:52 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pup6913 View Post
Some quotes are incorrect here. Cycles do not carry a premium. They sell for the same amount as a Hassan, Piedmont, AB, HLC, ect. Those of us who buy T205's regularly should know this. If they do carry premiums then I have purchased about 20 of these for 1/2 of what they are worth in the last yr and would like to sell them and double my money.
I disagree with this. Cycles and AB do carry a premium (I would estimate about 50%), especially on high grade and/or high dollar cards. The populations of Cycle and AB backs are considerably lower than the other common backs you mentioned. If you are talking about low grade commons, I agree that Cycle and AB will not be significantly more expensive than more common backs although I would expect a small premium. On a top tier HOF like Mathewson, a Cycle or AB back will always command a premium over a Piedmont or Hassan, regardless of the text variation we are discussing.
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  #36  
Old 01-04-2010, 07:19 PM
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If this is ther case then I would like to sell all my AB and cycles for the prices they are supposed to be at and not what I paid for them. I bought a Cycle backed Huggins for $89. Guess that should be worth about $300 since I actually paid about $40 less than normall for it via Ebay. I have a POP 1 AB Barger full B SGC 5.5 also that I bought for less than common prices. I think I have one card I paid about $35 more for than normall due to grade, POP, and presentation.

As a matter of a fact I will say that none of you are correct about AB and Cycles due to the fact that I have bought about 20-30 of these in the past 6 months will ZERO premium and a few of these under normal prices. This also holds true that the guys that are asking for the premiums on Ebay and else where still have their cards months after listing because they say the cards have premiums and are asking for them.

I am only saying this because I believe that I have bought more of these T205 specific backs than most of you for the past 6 months to a year. You cant argue the facts (I am sure you guys will though)

Also to adress Mr Steele an auction houses deal is to make the card sound irresistable so that it brings top dollar. That card didn't sell for as much as a normall backed card. So there is a good example to start with.

Last edited by Pup6913; 01-04-2010 at 07:50 PM. Reason: typo
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  #37  
Old 01-04-2010, 07:36 PM
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Here are some links for those AB and Cycle backed cards

Cobb AB

http://www.robertedwardauctions.com/.../2006/239.html

Normal grade 6 Cobb

http://www.robertedwardauctions.com/.../2008/408.html

Cycle backed Joss

http://www.goodwinandco.com/LotDetail.aspx?lotid=12044

Normal Joss

PSA 4 for $1247, SGC 4 for $975.

heres a blank backed Cobb

http://www.robertedwardauctions.com/.../2009/316.html

So where are the premiums. there are none. The data shows this and this was a quick 10 min search and to type this.
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  #38  
Old 01-04-2010, 07:57 PM
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Hi Andrew,
You can read data anyway you like, but.... The prices for cards in 2006 vs 2008 are not apples to apples.... I am very impressed with the AB's and Cycles you were able to pick up in the past year.... I wish I hadn't filled as many slots in the past 5 years or my set would look a bit higher grade. You should be very happy with your additions as I think you picked them up quite cheap.... Be well Brian


PS I have been collecting rare backs for a long time.... And I wish I had been paying attention to EBay instead of working so hard.

PS 2 Cycle Matty's(37-1) may not be as tough as Hobby no stats, but they are not easy.... Wilhelm "suffered" is very tough.... despite the fact that it comes with 2 different backs, Hassan and Cycle... although I doubt more than 5-6 Cycles exist.....

PS 3 I have a 37-1 Matty.... And I will be interested to see how many come out.....
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Old 01-04-2010, 08:12 PM
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Originally Posted by Pup6913 View Post
Also to adress Mr Steele an auction houses deal is to make the card sound irresistable so that it brings top dollar. That card didn't sell for as much as a normall backed card. So there is a good example to start with.


Ahhh yes, auction hyperbole. I am going to agree with you but they are certaintly not in the same ballpark as say, the Goodwins of the world
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Old 01-04-2010, 08:54 PM
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I put together a T205 set, sold it in the early 90's, then put together the set I have now in the late 90's. I didn't notice any premium for Cycle cards and a slight premium for ABs. The higher premiums were for Broadleaf, Hindu and Drum. I am still one of the minority which thinks the Hindus are the scarcest, most think Drums are toughest. All 4 are tougher than Cycles. That said I have't been buying any T205s in 10 years so what do I know?
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Old 01-04-2010, 10:51 PM
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Brian you have to look at the market command. In 06' we were not dealing with a depression (recession) as we were starting to experience in 08'. Prices reflect cards selling near or higher then now also.

If I remember I discussed this same situation with another member about his SGC 4 Cobb and why he was asking so much for it. I brought to his attention that there were 2 recent AB backed Cobbs in auction houses and several others in the same grade w/common backs selling for about $500+ less than he was asking for a Piedmont. Seems the card is still for sale and this was in he summer time. All you need to do is a few minutes or research in the web, auction house archives, VCP, Card Pricer, Ebay, ect. to find this info and do the comparisons.

I will arguee this till I can't breath that AB and Cycle backed T205's do not carry a premium. Unless you are buying alot of them instead of one here and there you will not see the amount passing through, and the prices they are going for.

They come in spurts. I bought 15 AB and Cycle backed T205's in grade 4's and higher in about 10 days on Ebay. None sold for more than normal. A few weeks later a couple popped up and they sold for about $10 more than average, then another group showed up and the prices actually were selling for less than average.

Sovereigns come around less than AB and Cycles lately. This makes me wonder.

So I think what we are all trying to get to here is the actuall price that a Matty Cycle should sell for. We all know Hoblitzell is the rarest, followed by what??? Does anyone have that list? That will make a great start for figuring this out. I say an average 4 should bring $1500-$2500 after the hype settles.

If you own one what would you want to sell it for and in what condition is the card? Bet I don't get many honest responses for this question
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Old 01-04-2010, 11:38 PM
marcdelpercio marcdelpercio is offline
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Just out of curiosity Andrew, why are you so avidly collecting Cycle and AB backed T205's if you don't feel that they are any scarcer or more valuable than Piedmonts?

One can always find individual data to try to prove a point and no doubt you have probably found some very good deals as you mentioned over the past several months. I think that most who actively collect the T205 set would place a premium on Cycle and AB backed cards. That's of course not to say that every such card will always sell for more than a similar card with a more common back. But overall, I am confident that this will hold true.

P.S. At your suggestion, I did a few minutes of research and checked recent sales on eBay. The last (and only recent) AB card to sell was this common:

http://cgi.ebay.com/1911-T205-Americ...item255639dba2

Note that none of the other SGC 70's of common players on eBay now even have an ASKING price of more than $275.
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Old 01-05-2010, 12:02 AM
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A few things first...Andrew has bought many T205s in the past year but I am fairly certain, I now own one of the largest and most diverse t205 collections. I have also, watched, charted, and handled thousands of t205s in the last decade. In the past 15 years I have put one near master set together missing only a Drum and a Hobby no stats, and am very close on a second set (minus three cards). Andrews set and cards are certainly in better condition than mine but I love my beaters.

Now, a bit of history...the Cycles used to carry a slight premium, usually about 2x-3x...that all changed about 5 years ago when a rather large find was made and sold into the hobby through ebay and two other auction houses. The premium seemed to go down and I was able to pick up some nice Cycles for nearly the same prices as the more common backs. I will say that they are at least twice as rare as HLC or Hassan still...they also do carry a slight premium...just check ebay...there was one that I lost (or am losing) just the other day that is nearly twice what I paid for a similar condition PB two weeks before. American Beauty definitely still carries a premium. Always has...especially the black version. This version now seems to be rarer...Now, the economy is making the prices bump up and down a bunch lately...Andrew, if you really want, I have a fantastic argument on why there should be a premium on Cycle and AB....because flatly, there are fewer of them made than the others...Sovereign barely contains a premium because a bunch have come to market in the past and they are not as scarce as once thought (In fact, in my first article sent to friends on the T205 set in 1996, I had the rarity of Sovereign more than Cycle and American Beauty because at the time, they were seen less commonly). This set changes rarity on finds...see Hindu/Drum example below...

Bob, When I first started tracking backs and doing research on this, I noticed that Hindu was listed as rarest. As I tracked there was a small Hindu find in the early '90s which seemed to push Drum to the top. Up until recently, I had charted 23 different Hindu players including at least 2 instances where there were two distinct cards of the same player meaning the Hindu had to run a printing at least twice. Now there are 31 distinct subjects.

Up until a year ago, I had only seen 18 different Drum backs, all different fronts. Until the St. Louis find, I figured it may have only run once, but I finally found a double, so I know that the Drum run was run at least twice. No the Drums and Hindus seem just about even again.

I still believe that Drum is tougher but not by much anymore.

The Cycle Matty is no scarcer than any other Cycle card as far as I can tell. The Wilhelm suffered is scarcer. I think that the print run for that card was different. I think that it is a single print that replaced another card on the sheet or was replaced by another card (like a minor leaguer) and was run with a much shorter print run. Just like the Hoblitzell no stats was probably replaced by another card or replaced another card and run with a much shorter print run. Whether it happened early in the print run or later, those cards are much rarer than the Cycle Matty. Granted Matty is a HOFer and it is one of the most beautiful cards in the set, I still feel that the premium placed on it is way out of line with rarity...it is just a demand premium and will go down eventually.

The list of rarity changes with new finds but here is what I have been working with lately independent of advertising...

Hobby no stats #1
Wilhelm suffered #2
Wallace no cap 1 line stats #4
Joss #4
Moran stray #5
Wallace no cap 2 line stats #6
Hobby no cin. name correct #7
Gray stats #8
Wilhelm suffe ed #9
Hobby no cin. name incorrect #10

Now, there has been some flux between #4-10 and some people might argue that some others should be included but these are my top ten and #1,2,3 are very very difficult.



Joshua
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Old 01-05-2010, 02:14 AM
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Using just the pop report from SGC, it appears that the Cycle Mathewson is more rare than the Wilhelm "suffered" version. Although any Wilhelm will be harder to find than the Mathewson. It would be great to know what the pop report is from the other grading companies to do a comparison. Here are the totals from SGC:

Total Mathewson's graded: 232
Total Cycle Mathewsons: 11

Total Wilhelms graded: 54
Total Cycle & Hassan: 12

So using that as a guide, it appears that the "suffered" version shows up in 1 out of every 4 (just a little more than 4) cards on average. On the other hand, the Mathewson Cycle appears 1 out of every 20 cards. Also, more "suffered" have already been graded than Mathewson's error.

Joshua: I see you didn't include the Mathewson in your list. Do you think that all those you have in your top 10 are more difficult to find????

Andrew, I agree that it is suspicious that a person with little feedback placed a high bid, but it can only go as high as the next highest bid. That said, you had two different people place bids over $2500 on that card. Don't you find it even more strange that from all the talk on this board from people claiming that they wouldn't pay more than a normal premium for a cycle, yet the price of that card kept going up past the "normal" premium?

That is just my take. I'm certainly not as knowledgeable as most on this topic, but it is interesting to read.

r/
Frank

Last edited by Tcards-Please; 01-05-2010 at 02:32 AM. Reason: spelling; question to Joshua
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  #45  
Old 01-05-2010, 06:30 AM
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Originally Posted by Wite3 View Post
The list of rarity changes with new finds but here is what I have been working with lately independent of advertising...

Hobby no stats #1
Wilhelm suffered #2
Wallace no cap 1 line stats #4
Joss #4
Moran stray #5
Wallace no cap 2 line stats #6
Hobby no cin. name correct #7
Gray stats #8
Wilhelm suffe ed #9
Hobby no cin. name incorrect #10

Now, there has been some flux between #4-10 and some people might argue that some others should be included but these are my top ten and #1,2,3 are very very difficult.



Joshua
WOW- I love this thread.

So are you suggesting that the Joss is the 4th most scare card in the master set? Wow. I had no idea.

I would like to ask, when you say scare, do you mean total population of the card (either on the market or in collections) or do you mean frequency that a card comes up for sale?
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Old 01-05-2010, 06:39 AM
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Rarity, has to do with populations; scarcity has to do with how often a card is available.

Using the SGC numbers, it seems the Mathewson variation is 2nd to only Hobby no stats as far as T205 variation rarity.
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Old 01-05-2010, 07:23 AM
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Did SGC always differentiate the backs on its slabs?
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  #48  
Old 01-05-2010, 07:29 AM
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Originally Posted by marcdelpercio View Post
Just out of curiosity Andrew, why are you so avidly collecting Cycle and AB backed T205's if you don't feel that they are any scarcer or more valuable than Piedmonts?

P.S. At your suggestion, I did a few minutes of research and checked recent sales on eBay. The last (and only recent) AB card to sell was this common:

http://cgi.ebay.com/1911-T205-Americ...item255639dba2

Note that none of the other SGC 70's of common players on eBay now even have an ASKING price of more than $275.
Mark I absolutly love the AB and Cycle backed cards, plus since most are just collecting fronts for a set I want a unique set that is made of a majority of harder to find backs that "seem" to cost the same as normalls. Just because they aren't as common as some of ther others don't seem to make them worth more. I guess if they are worth more then I pretty much have stolen all of the ones I own in regards to price.

I think they are neat and since I have seemed to get these "costly cards" at such a cheap rate then I am very happy. As far as the auction for BMW cards I do not believe for one minute that some dummy paid that much for that card. You ever follow his sales on crap like that. I think he does it to make it look like he is selling for the most money. I guess this would make the one I got for $65 worth about $300-350 right? I got mine about 4 months ago via Ebay. The Barger should be worth about $600 due to being a POP 1 and grade then. Man 7 times what I paid

I guess we could argue all day about this and we all are probably right due to timeframes and purchases.

I think the Matty Should be in #3 or #4 spot on the list.
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  #49  
Old 01-05-2010, 07:29 AM
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You can not use pop reports for comparison...First off, people have broken out cards and sent them to cross. Next, if I understand pop. reports, PSA and SGC did not distinguish between Cycle to start and only started doing this more recently. Third, the grading companies make mistakes. I can tell you right now that I used to own a Wilhelm suffe ed that I cracked out of a PSA case that just said Wilhelm. Using grading reports and pop. reports is useless imho.

I think that Matty is more often seen for sale than the ten I listed. Even the Matty cycle has come up three or four times in the last 6 months. I can honestly say that in 2009 I only saw Joss a handful of times. Joss is a single print, HOFer, and in demand. It is a tough card to come by and when it does come up, it commands a lot of attention. Heck, I know at least three collectors who ask if I have an extra or know of one at least twice a year! I guess using the definitions, Joss would be rare and scarce (as are all the cards in my top ten). Matty cycle is not rare but is currently scarce as collector demand is currently high.

Joshua
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Old 01-05-2010, 07:31 AM
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Did SGC always differentiate the backs on its slabs?
I believe SGC has always differentiated the advertising backs on their slabs. Also, their pop report is broken up by Ad back (the numbers total) and there is no "other" category.
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