State of the Post War Market

[AGuinness]

Originally Posted by David W

You may be correct. But if you are investing in high end graded cards of top players, you do not know how many high end cards are still out there waiting to be graded.

So you do not know the supply side of the equation, nor necessarily even the demand side.

But people have and will make money speculating on baseball cards.

Very true, and in particular the population of ungraded cards likely increases the more modern the card is, creating more risk for modern and recent star cards.

But continuing as a Devil's Advocate, I think the unknowns and speculation in the stock market are also very prevalent. Speculation has been cited as at least one of the reasons behind each of the major stock market crashes. And while market cap and other statistics on stocks are widely available to shareholders, there are many examples of companies deceiving the public and their shareholders by using loopholes and accounting tricks ("cooking the books") to hide debt, etc. (such as Enron). I think there's likely a certain amount of unknown risk in EVERY investment.

[jchcollins]

I'm not experienced enough to comment on the true high-end of the market, or what real rarities or highly desired pre-war sells for, or anything like that. But, in the wheelhouse of what I do collect and am familiar with (1950-70's mid-grade stars - whether graded or not) I think on the whole the cards remain very affordable and also don't seem to lose a ton of value. I think a PSA 5 '63 Topps Willie Mays (to use an example from my collection) if you do the math and see what a comparable (albeit before grading) version of that same card sold for in say 1989 - I think you would find things haven't changed all that much.

Again, this obviously doesn't speak to the rather large changes in the high end of the vintage market that have happened since 1989 - but it works for me.

[JustinD]

Originally Posted by AGuinness

Very true, and in particular the population of ungraded cards likely increases the more modern the card is, creating more risk for modern and recent star cards.

I would actually doubt that hypothesis.

The production numbers are lower and the collecting base are adult due to the immense cost of anything other than base sets. It is also a collecting group that has fully embraced TPGs.

Anyone that is sitting on a childhood collection or has not been avid in collecting in the past 20 years is unlikely to have used a TPG and thus the cards are unaccounted for. As the boomers and older pass on, their children may look to move those inheritances and will be adding to the pop numbers for sale.

The first thing modern collectors do is sleeve cards from the pack and ship off anything to the TPGs.

[jchcollins]

Originally Posted by JustinD

I would actually doubt that hypothesis.
The production numbers are lower and the collecting base are adult due to the immense cost of anything other than base sets. It is also a collecting group that has fully embraced TPGs.
.

Agreed. As costly for the hobby as the fallout of the "junk era" was, the manufacturers learned their lesson well. Instead of a wide hobby base now and collecting being wildly popular at all age ranges, you have a narrowed range that is increasingly about wealthy adults. I suppose the manufacturers chose this as a safer route rather than go to extra effort to ensure the hobby remained affordable for a wider range of collectors. As for TPG's, I'm personally surprised that the marked embraced them so completely so quickly, but the handwriting was clearly on the wall decades earlier over in the coin hobby.

[AGuinness]

Originally Posted by JustinD

I would actually doubt that hypothesis.

The production numbers are lower and the collecting base are adult due to the immense cost of anything other than base sets. It is also a collecting group that has fully embraced TPGs.

Anyone that is sitting on a childhood collection or has not been avid in collecting in the past 20 years is unlikely to have used a TPG and thus the cards are unaccounted for. As the boomers and older pass on, their children may look to move those inheritances and will be adding to the pop numbers for sale.

The first thing modern collectors do is sleeve cards from the pack and ship off anything to the TPGs.

Agreed that modern collectors are likely to perceive investment value in their cards and treat them accordingly. But I would, as a Devil's Advocate, also say that despite lower production numbers, this perception would lead to a higher chance of more investment grade examples of a card. There are likely baby boomers sitting on ungraded collections, but how many of those cards are actually investment grade?

For example, there is a single example of the Nolan Ryan rookie at PSA 10, while there are 22 examples of the Derek Jeter 1993 SP at PSA 10. Despite the lower production numbers on the Jeter, I would contend that there is a greater likelihood that more possible PSA 10 examples of the Jeter are in collections and currently ungraded than there are ungraded of the Ryans (there are, of course, many more ungraded Ryan rookies out there, but I'm thinking there are very few investment grade examples).

Another example could be the 2000 Playoff Contenders Tom Brady rookie auto, which in my limited research appears to have a print run of 3,000 (saw that number on the Blowout forum). PSA looks to have graded 14/148 at 10, while BGS has 15/643 at 9.5 (Beckett's site is a bit confusing for me on this card, but I think I've read that right). That leaves (approximately) 2,209 ungraded examples of the card, and with the modern preservation logic, most would have been well protected by their owners. If the 3.6 percent of the current population at 10 PSA/9.5 BGS holds, thats an additional 81 Gem Mint Tom Brady auto rookies that could enter the market. Of course, it could be argued that demand would still exceed that supply, but I'm playing Devil's Advocate about the RISK of investment grade cards when it comes to the modern market. These numbers would indicate that it is more likely the market will see a number of these investment grade Gem Mint Brady rookies (or of the Jeter SP rookie) become available through new grading than the Gem Mint Ryan rookie.

[Johnny630]

What vintage card collector ever thought that in 2018 people would be buying or bidding on teams or players in box/case breaks ? The new guys that do this don’t collect it’s all about the Gamble not the love of Team or Player. I equate this to team/player loyalty being blown away by the Fantasy Player. To me it’s just like going into a casino. This is why I stick to Vintage.

[AGuinness]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

What vintage card collector ever thought that in 2018 people would be buying or bidding on teams or players in box/case breaks ? The new guys that do this don’t collect it’s all about the Gamble not the love of Team or Player. I equate this to team/player loyalty being blown away by the Fantasy Player. To me it’s just like going into a casino. This is why I stick to Vintage.

Very true, all about the speculation.

I'd be interested in hearing from somebody who is involved with or follows other collectibles/investments about the phases and how things mature. We're all familiar with the arc of baseball (and sports) cards evolving from trifles with little monetary value to what some now consider an investment vehicle. Are they behind in that arc compared to stamps, coins or something else? What happened after stamps, coins, etc. moved on to their next phase?

[albrshbr]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

What vintage card collector ever thought that in 2018 people would be buying or bidding on teams or players in box/case breaks ? The new guys that do this don’t collect it’s all about the Gamble not the love of Team or Player. I equate this to team/player loyalty being blown away by the Fantasy Player. To me it’s just like going into a casino. This is why I stick to Vintage.

I have to somewhat disagree. My 9 y/o does quite a few case breaks and he certainly is not trying to get the big hit.

Although he is primarily football, the example still relates. Even some of the lower end sets are too expensive for him to put together. The base Donruss football set is 400 cards, 300 veterans and 100 rookies that come 1 per pack. 24 packs per box at $65 a box. If we get extremely lucky (astronomical odds actually) and every rookie is different, we're $260 invested and still a couple of cards short of finishing the set. Sorry, but a 9 y/o really is not capable of "selling" the various inserts to recoup some of the money spent. There are some inserts he likes, and will keep for his personal collection, but most don't mean anything to him.

So the typical set building that most of us remember from our younger days really isn't feasible for the typical youngster today.

Since set building is out, most will collect players or teams. We do case breaks and purchase our local football team. If we were to buy boxes of let's say Donruss Optic, it would cost in the neighborhood of $120 a box. We might get 10 cards for his team, and if we get really lucky maybe he'll get a rookie or insert. Not exactly getting our monies worth. But if we buy into a case break we can get all of the cards for his team for maybe $50 (of course if you have some big/hot rookies on your team it will cost more). Yes, we get quite a few of the same base cards, but that's not a bad thing. We also get a good number of inserts and rookies. He's able to trade his duplicates to friends of his for some of the other players he likes (his friends get the boxes from Walmart/Target). I haven't done it in just over a year, but we were able to take our other duplicates to our LCS for trade credit also.

Anyways, not everyone who does the case breaks does it for the gamble. Actually I think for some it has strengthened team loyalty to a whole new level. It allows team/player collectors to focus their limited collecting budgets on only their primary interests.

If you're going to the National this year, you'll be able to find the 2 of us in the case break pavilion, as well as walking the floor.

[MCoxon]

Why aren't there any good inflation / price data, like a CPI (card price index)? This seems ripe for someone to analyze the huge PSA and VCP databases and bring facts to this discussion.

I agree with Peter Spaeth that the cards I look for get harder and harder and more and more expensive to procure. Granted these tend to be rarer, PSA 7-8 Mantles, Clementes, etc. and so it makes me think there are sub-segments of the post war market.

I'd argue there are at least 3-4 different "sub-segments" (just like there are CPI and PPI inflation data for all goods, and for sub-segments):

* HOF RCs, PSA 8+: This is a separate animal altogether, and where a lot of the "buyer's club" comments come from

* Elite HOF base cards: Mantle, Clemente, Koufax, Mays, etc. Even here, I'd say that prices for these cards in PSA 8+ have behaved differently than these cards in PSA 4-7

* HOF rare/alternate cards. I believe that Mantle's Stahl-Meyer, Dan-Dee, Yoo-Hoo, and other rare cards have gone way up, since 2015. I could be wrong

* Non-HOF cards: even here, I'd differentiate between, say, 1952 Topps and 1972 Topps high numbers


In all, I believe there are micro-markets; my opinion is that

* High-grade HOF RC's have gone down

* Rare, high-grade elite HOF cards have gone WAY up

* Clementes and Mantles have gone up, across the board. For instance I've been looking for 1956 Mantle PSA 5, or a 1964 Standup PSA 6+ for 24 months, and they keep going up; ditto Clemente 1956 PSA 6-7; try bidding for a 1969 Topps Super Clemente; I have for 2 years and I'm chasing a rising price

* Average HOF or common player cards in mid-grade have gone MODERATELY down

[Leon]

I agree. From what I have seen, collecting today's cards is close to being 100% gambling. I am not saying it's bad or good but it is what it is.

Originally Posted by Johnny630

What vintage card collector ever thought that in 2018 people would be buying or bidding on teams or players in box/case breaks ? The new guys that do this don’t collect it’s all about the Gamble not the love of Team or Player. I equate this to team/player loyalty being blown away by the Fantasy Player. To me it’s just like going into a casino. This is why I stick to Vintage.

[jchcollins]

Originally Posted by Leon

From what I have seen, collecting today's cards is close to being 100% gambling.

Agreed. Even with vintage collectors - those with means are often interested only in investment grade cards (PSA 8+) or buy spots in "vintage break" deals where it's $200 or more a card for (example) a wax pack of '67 Topps where the goal is to get the cards with the sharpest corners and best centering. They pull a HOFer in many videos of situations like this, but will lament it being a "dud" because of the centering.

Collecting today at least for those with means has gone out of focus and on a tangent in some respects due to this. Each unto their own, but when I was a kid collecting vintage - like you said - the focus was on the players, and the history and love of the game. Even if I had unlimited funding, I would probably find it wiser to just buy what I want to start with in a decent grade. For someone like me that would mean buying a '67 Roberto Clemente in about EX shape instead of gambling on getting a PSA 9 one out of some spot in a pack bust...

[AGuinness]

This is a good thread, I'm glad it was started. There are surely differences between collecting now and 30+ years ago, although it strikes me that the conversation may be missing a few elements of collecting in 2018, such as:

COMC, eBay, etc.: collectors today, and particularly young collectors, don't NEED to go to shows for a wider range and depth of cards. I conduct most of my business through web sites, and would imagine many others, both young and old, do the same. Card shows are to collecting in the 1970s and 1980s as the internet is today. I also see the success of COMC, which from my observations thrives on sales of cards that cost $10 or less (including tons of cards below $1), as a sign of health of the hobby. And Topps also has an online presence, as Topps Now seems to have been a big success, with offerings for speculators and collectors alike.

Junk Era collectors: we all know how the supply of junk era cards was ridiculous, but I'm thinking the number of collectors was pretty high (obviously not high enough to meet demand). While a huge number of people caught the speculation bug back then and bought boxes of cards to "pay for college," the hobby likely doesn't need a huge percentage of the population to sustain itself. I would guess that even half the population who was buying cards in the mid to late 80s might not be necessary to keep the hobby healthy.

Other collectables: I have never met a stamp collector or coin collector in my life (in passing, I read some posts on this site from a couple), and have known only a few comic book collectors. But those hobbies seem to be chugging along (eBay has a stamps and comics links under Collectables). I think stamps and coins are an older/more mature hobby than card collecting (not sure on that), and I wonder how the evolution of those hobbies has compared to that of baseball cards.

All that said, the money "invested" in today's young stars can be ridiculous to me, especially in those with manufactured scarcity. But I do appreciate that this hobby can accommodate people with any financial backing.

[Johnny630]

My original post was a month ago ago about the state of the post war market.
Does anyone have any updates or thoughts as to how they see pricing/value of cards ?

From what I observed it seems many of the really good collections have gone to Major Auction House or are being hoardedor or grossly overpriced. It seems to be a weird time where many are apprehensive to sell because they think 2015-2016 will happen again. Either way from my prepective the high end investors wont be coming back any time soon if ever. It’s very interesting to watch and theorize.

Thoughts ??