Which So-Called Rarities are Overrated?

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Posted By: barrysloate

Some threads over the weekend suggested that a few cards, such as the T207 Lowdermilk and T3's with Turkey Red ad backs, are not really as rare as their reputations. Two cards which I feel are overrated are:

1) T205 Hoblitzell No Stats- considering it is touted as the rarest T205 and always seems to sell for five figures, doesn't it seem like there is one in nearly every auction?

2) Same goes for the 1933 Goudey Nap Lajoie. For a card touted as one of the hobby's major rarities, it wouldn't surprise me if at least 8-10 are sold every year.

With the hobby becoming more sophisticated, and with more information being gathered every day, what other so-called rarities do you think should be knocked down a peg? Likewise, which lesser known ones deserve more attention?

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Posted By: John S

Underrated:E270's in general

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Posted By: peter ullman

barry...if you're going to include the hoblitzel and the lajoie...why not add the o'hara and demmit t206's to the list...they seem to show up as frequently or more than the hoblitzell no stats. I still consider the lajoie a hobby rarity.

pete in st thomas

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Posted By: barrysloate

Peter- you can add anything you want to the list, as this is just a survey.

Yes, the 1933 Lajoie is a rarity in relation to other Goudeys produced in 1933 and 1934; but as rarities go, doesn't it seem like there is one, and at times even two, in nearly ever major auction? So my question is: is it overrated?

And for every Hoblitzell no stats for sale, how many T208 low grade commons are there? Zero.

For that matter a T207 Lowdermilk is a very tough card, but just look how often it shows up at auction. I'm just referring to those that have for a generation or more been considered among the hobby's elite cards, but seem to show up too often to truly be deemed rarities.

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Posted By: Ted Zanidakis

With the advent of the Internet, and especially Ebay, we have to modify our "old school" thinking
as to what is "rare". Everything we once considered "rare" is coming out of the woodwork in this
new environment.

Except these 2 cards, that instantly flash in my mind as really rare.....

T206 Joe Doyle (NAT'L)

Red Cobb with Ty Cobb back

TED Z

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Posted By: Al C.risafulli

I find George C. Millers to be overrated, in general.

I find 1921 E121 Herpolsheimers to be underrated. I am also having a bear of a time finding any more E121 Henry Johnson Confectioners.

In terms of mainstream issues, I feel that 1941 Goudeys and Tattoo Orbits are underrated - much tougher to find that it seems like they should be.

-Al

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Posted By: Keith O'Leary

I agree with Al on the 1921 Herpolsheimers. All 1 of 1 cards.

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Posted By: Jay

Keith--I agree. Herpolsheimer cards are very undervalued, especially the stars.

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Posted By: bruce Dorskind

We disagree with the comment that Geoge C Miller cards are overrated with regard to
their rarity.

Whilst there may be a reasonable number of Millers that have not been graded,
especially cancelled cards, our experience has been that the Milers are among
the rarest of all 1930's gum cards...and very difficult to find.

Miller cards in reasonable condition (6 and above) are few and far between.

The mos recent PSA Population Report indicates that a mere 25 examples
18-6's, 6- "7s" and a single PSA 8 card have met these standards.
That total represents less than 10% of total number of cards graded by PSA (273).

SGC's figures are even more discourgaging for the discerning collector. There is
not a single example above 60 which has been graded by SGC. In total 137
examples have been graded by SGC.

To the best our knowledge only three Miller wrappers survive today. Miller had
different wrappers for the American League and National League.

There are a number of explanations as to why George C Miller cards are so rare.
The candy sold for 5 cents rather than a penny and the distribution of the set
was limited to the East Coast.

Trust this information will be helpful


Best,


Bruce Dorskind
America's Toughest Want List

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Posted By: Al C.risafulli

Bruce:

I argree with you guys about higher-grade GCMs being scarce, but given the nature of the cards, that makes sense. The cards were usually cancelled by chopping off a slice of the card, or poking holes through them, rendering it very difficult to find an example graded above a 6.

In my post, I was not referring to condition scarcity, but to scarcity in general. However, if I were to choose the toughest 1930s issue to find in high grade, it still would not be the GCMs. Instead I would choose a set like the 1933 R308 Tattoo Orbits. These are nearly impossible to find in EX condition, largely because A) there haven't been a ton graded, and B) they were "self-developing" cards that required the owner to spit on them - or otherwise wet them - in order to produce the photo. Doing so generally produced a stain that would make it nearly impossible to find a high-grade card today.

But the cards themselves aren't as scarce as they're cracked up to be. Same with GCMs, in my opinion.

For a set that is supposed to be super scarce, it seems to me that there are a couple GCMs in every major auction and a few on eBay every couple of weeks. There are four listed in eBay stores right now.

Contrast that with R308 Butter Creams, Uncle Jacks Candys, Demaree Die Cuts, or even high-grade Diamond Star high #s. All of those seem tougher to me than the GCMs, but the GCMs are usually considered the most scarce 1930s issue. I just don't buy it.

-Al

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Posted By: Chad

I think I'll keep my R308 in the plastic from now on. And I'd agree that R308's are damn near impossible to find in high grade. I'd love to see a PSA 6 on one of those. I imagine the image on a PSA 6 one would be outstanding.

--Chad

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Posted By: Al C.risafulli

Nothing like the thought of a little 70-year-old DNA on your cards to wreck your lunch, eh?

-Al

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Posted By: Jerry

How about Lections without bullet holes.

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Posted By: Darren

Good thread. I agree with the t205's and t206's noted thus far. I'd add the t206 George Brown Washington variation to the list. There also seems to more than expected 1933 tatoo orbit blaeholders and hadley's out there.

As for as "new thought" rarities--Coupon type 1 and type 3's have got to be up there. 1926 Sports Co. of America all other than Ruth are rarely available. I have yet to see a Cobb offered in any grade. The Ruth from this set with 1927 Copyright of which two are currently known has to go on the list as well.

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Posted By: warshawlaw

Overrated:
Goudey Lajoie
T206 Cobb green. Expensive and popular, yes, but easy to find.
T207 Lowdermilk

Underrated:
W553: Very tough to find, esp. if you want a particular player.
Tattoo Orbit: ditto.

I think the GCM cards are rated about right, especially if you are talking about an uncancelled card. It took me quite a while to find an uncancelled O'Doul.

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Posted By: dan mckee

GC Millers are tough uncancelled. When speaking of rare, are we speaking of a particular card or of a condition of a card? I think condition should not matter when saying a rare card. A T206 Elberfeld Fielding is common as dirt but I imagine that card graded a 9 is rare? A few overrated rarities to me are the Tattoo Orbit Andrews and Blaeholder short prints that old schoolers considered tough. Yes Lowdermilk is way overrated it seems. With the Lajoie, I bet a lot of the examples you keep seeing are recycled through auction houses hence it is not as plentiful as you may think. Dan.

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Posted By: barrysloate

Dan- I agree that many of the Lajoies are recycled, and I wonder why they aren't held longer? There are collectors who after they pick up a rarity will keep it forever. But the Lajoie seems to not have a very long shelf life with collectors.

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Posted By: JimB

Adam,
I agree that in the scheme of things the green T206 Cobb is not that hard to find, but I do think it is significantly tougher than any of the other T206 Cobbs. Based on my unscientific observation, I would guess that I have seen at least twice as many red T206 Cobbs than green. The batting poses stand somewhere in the middle.
JimB

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Posted By: dan mckee

The one that sold in Sothebys a few years back in a holder hasn't been recycled and has a nice home in my Goudey set. It has left the plastic tomb and found its way into the proper position in the 9 pocket sheet.

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Posted By: Joe D.

I think the green cobb is harder to find because it is more 'likeable' -- and not necessarily because there are fewer of them.

more likeable = less turnover = shows up less often.

just a guess.

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Posted By: peter chao

Dan, Barry,

It seems to me that the reason you bid on a '33 Goudey Lajoie has a lot to do with whether you keep it. Dan is a serious collector and even broke his Lajoie out of a slab to insert into his collection. To an investor this would be extremely foolish.

I suspect the reason why many of the '33 Goudey Lajoies go on the auction block so often is that they are in the hands of investors.
Either the investor thinks he can make a profit or he wants to cut his losses.

For card sets that I struggled to complete I have little or no desire to sell.

Peter

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Posted By: MVSNYC

someone mentioned demmitt & o'hara? i think if anything, they are UNDER-RATED. they are nearly impossible to find in mid-high grade, advanced collectors know truly how tuff they are to find...scot reader actually places them ahead of Magie for tuffness.

yes, you do see them often, but alot of them are re-circulated.

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Posted By: dan mckee

Grades aside, Magie is much tougher than Demmit and O'Hara.

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Posted By: MVSNYC

hi dan, i was surprised too, but maybe Scot could elaborate on his findings.

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Posted By: barrysloate

I've handled several Planks but hardly any Magies. Are the Magies tougher?

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Posted By: Ted Zanidakis

You are absolutely correct.....Barry's original question on "RARITY" should be
independent of the grading factor.
A T206 Doyle, Magie, Plank or Wagner are sought after irregardless of condition.

And indeed, a Magie is an order of magnitude tougher to find then Demmitt or O'Hara.
However, D & O are very tough to find in Ex (or better) since they exist only as Polar
Bears.....and, invariably have chewing tobacco stains on them.

TED Z

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Posted By: Anonymous

I think that your thinking about this all wrong. T206 and T205 are collected in abundance. Many collect them as a set. Ofcourse any T208 or E222 or anyother ultra rarity will appear undervalued in comparison to the "rarities" from t205 or T207(or the lajoie Goudey card). But these are mainstream sets collected by so many, and therefore were back to supply and demand. Ofcourse theres more Hoblitzel no stats then the price should dictate, but theres a lot of t205 collectors. In a matter of speaking, nothing is overvalued or undervalued, its value is what is assigned to it by the buyers as a whole. You cant just factor rarity, theres other things at play here. Namely, how many collectors are interested in said card.

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Posted By: Marty

The last Mastro auction had a PSA 4 Lajoie in it. I bought the card from the person who had it graded, I sold it to another dealer who sold it to a collector. This took about 3 years total time. I think that there are many collectors that want to say that they have owned a card, but the price of keeping it is pretty high, so they sell and move on. They may also see the the cards have sold for much higher than what they paid. This card in a 4 has sold in the mid 20's in the past year or so. The last one sold for about 15K pluse juice.

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Posted By: peter chao

Marty,

I guess I'm just not that kind of collector. It really doesn't make any difference to me if I owned it at one time. The only cards that mean much to me are the ones I currently own.

Actually, I would be slightly depressed if I had a '33 Goudey Lajoie and then sold it. To me, it would be a sense of a loss instead of giving me bragging rights. The only exception would be if I took the money and bought a T-206 Wagner...then I would brag all day and night.

Peter

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Posted By: Richard Masson

No one has bashed the e90-1 Mitchell yet. I have seen multiple copies of the "Honus Wagner of Caramel Cards" offered for sale over the past decade, but very few Walsh or McLean cards.

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Posted By: E, Daniel

Funny, there are some cards I wouldn't want to own for more than a couple of days......but oh for one or two sleepless nights with a 14' Baltimore Ruth. After that, the guilt associated with having so much money tied up in a card when there are kids educations to be paid for, mortgages to service, and bathrooms to remodel (imagine the sickening feeling if it were to expire in flames or flood) would leave me too angst ridden to go about daily life.
Not to mention there's a certain full sized snooker table I've always wanted, and the accompanying billiards room to house it .

Daniel


Under-rated:
1. Uncommon sets - All Texas Tommys
2. Common sets - 1914 Cracker Jacks

Over-rated:
1. All t206 "Tough" cards
2. Sorry Leon, Back types - I really think the market for these will be very thin going forward, especially if the average collector becomes less of an intense hobbyist and more a casual enjoyer of the hobby. I mean, you have to be a pretty intense collector for a back designation of "Herpolsheimer" to decide if you like a card or not...

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Posted By: peter chao

Richard,

Beckett's considers the e90-1 Mitchell a rarity, I have doubts myself since I do see them popping up. How about the 1954 Bowman Ted Williams, I see those around pretty often also. Is the Ted Williams a rarity.

Peter

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Posted By: Bob

An underrated rarity is the E97 Briggs Keeler.
All D311s are underrated as rarities.
In the T207 set Saier is overrated.

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Posted By: barrysloate

The E90-1 Mitchell is a perfect example. While nobody questions it is scarce, it is not the toughest card in the E90-1 set. It lives on its reputation.

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Posted By: peter chao

Barry,

Would you say the same thing is true for the '54 Bowman Ted Williams, it goes by it's reputation but is not a true rarity.

Peter

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Posted By: Ted Zanidakis

In the 1970's and early '80s both these cards were considered very rare, and that drove up their prices, as
more collectors were entering a very growing BB card hobby. The old adage, "the law of supply vs demand",
certainly ruled the day.

During the early to mid-'90s these card's prices leveled off. Then the combination of Ebay and the Grading
phenomena in the mid-to-late '90s till now have driven these two card's prices high again.

And, no they are not as rare as they are claimed to be, relative to the real rarities that have been discussed
so far in this thread.

TED Z

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Posted By: warshawlaw

I interpreted the question as one of rarity of existence (which is my main concern), not condition rarity. I do not believe that they are equivalents because they attract different people. Some cards are plain old rarities; you are lucky to find them. Other cards are common but hardly ever found in really nice shape. I prefer to acknowledge both in my boxing guide by noting which sets are rare and which cards are condition rarities from common sets.

Personally, I will always take a rare card over a high grade common card.

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Posted By: barrysloate

Peter- the 1954 Bowman Williams is another card that hasn't proven to be as rare as once thought. I'm pretty sure I remember Larry Fritsch telling the story that as a kid in 1954, he bought a pack of Bowmans and all five cards were Williams!

Does anybody else remember hearing that? Ted would know if I am right or just imagining it.

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Posted By: Ted Zanidakis

You willll appreciate this more than most, but in 30+ yrs of collecting, I have actually seen, or held,
only 2 - 1948 LEAF Rocky Graziano (#50) cards. Regarding all post-WWII sportscards, this "Rocky"
must be the rarest of them all.

I wrote an article about this card back in 1982 and most in the sports collecting hobby were stunned,
as very, very few knew of its existence.

You are the "boxingcardman" guru on this Forum.....how many of these Graziano cards have you seen ?

TED Z

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Posted By: MVSNYC

concerning the question about mr. o'hara & mr. demmitt...becasue of only being printed with Polar Bear backs, they are tuff to find in high grade, this is true, but the mere fact that they were ONLY printed with one brand makes them tuff cards to find regardless...coupled with the fact that their St.L team designations were short printed...

but this is not new news, just reinforcing what we already know...bottom line is, they're tuff.

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Posted By: Joann

The Black & White E97's are usually thought of as rare, but they come up in nearly every auction and are on ebay fairly regularly. I don't know about cards within the set, but you see a lot more E97 BW's than, say, E107 etc.

Joann

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Posted By: dennis

barry you are correct about the fritsch story......but not sure if it was 5 or 3 in the same pack?

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Posted By: steve

The S74 silks in high grade HOF'ers are way tough - both colored and with backing varieties.

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Posted By: Bob

Joann- For some reason the b&w e97s seem to never stay very long in one place. I think collectors may be buying them to flip them as I seem to see the same ones selling over the year. I think they are pretty scarce though as I have only ever seen one Keeler, one Kelly, etc. I own the Carrigan and one other (player escapes me now) and I have only ever seen one other Carrigan and one other of the other player.
I saw where a near set of them was offered in an auction a while back, but they don't come up too often on ebay with the exception of the Austin which the seller had on ebay 5 different times trying to sell it (not sure if reserve was ever hit). That one was once owned by a couple of board members and was reportedly skinned so that cooled a little of the excitement over the card.
Bob

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Posted By: Jeff Lichtman

Ted is right about the Graziano Leaf. I collect the set and not only have I never even seen one but not a single registry set even has one included. Can that be said for ANY other pre-or post war, commonly collected set in any sport?

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Posted By: Joann

Bob - now that I think about it, you're right. I do see the same E97 BW's sell repeatedly. Maybe they are more rare than I was thinking. I have a Rossman, and haven't seen another. But the Doolan, Austin and a few others I can't think of I've seen a few times so they probably are all the same card.

Joann

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Posted By: warshawlaw

2, one in person and one in a picture.

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Posted By: barrysloate

Part of the problem of determining rarity is the reappearance of the same card again and again, and the difficulty in tracking it. I guess some percentage are bought purely for investment, so those are going to come back up for sale as soon as the seller feels he can make a profit.

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Posted By: Jim Dale

For a total and complete newbie to vintage this is a really wonderful thread. Learning a lot....

I had expected to see someone call the Broadleaf 460's of the T206 set over rated? It was my opinion they were a tad over rated as it seemed as though at least 5 or 6 came up this year that I know of - and I don't follow all of the auctions.

With the acception of a nicely graded one (which I have not seen) there seem to be a lot more 460's in the low SGC grdes then I had been lead to believe.

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Posted By: Ted Zanidakis

My reply to your.....
...."the 1954 Bowman Williams is another card that hasn't proven to be as rare as once thought.
I'm pretty sure I remember Larry Fritsch telling the story that as a kid in 1954, he bought a pack
of Bowmans and all five cards were Williams!"......

You stated this story exactly as I heard it 26 years ago. And, I believe Fritsch recalled it as it was.
It is not an experience, as a kid, that one would forget. I know I can still recall opening up certain
wax packs from the late 1940's or the 1950's and remembering what cards were in them.

The Bowman Gum Co. was dumping their 1954 Ted Williams card (#66) as fast as they could because
Topp's executive Sy Berger, himself an avid Ted Williams fan, took Bowman to court over the rights to
Ted Williams.
Recall that the 1954 Topps set's #1 & #250 cards are Ted and it was in the market before Bowman.

TED Z