Mantle Avalanche

[Yoda]

Obviously, there are any number of factors in play, but I am slightly overwhelmed by the sheer number of choice '51 Bowman and '52 Topps cards of the Mick available at the moment either via an auction house, Ebay or whatever. I wonder if the trigger point for the current avalanche was the live Goldin auction at the National in July where, I think, the Topps example set a new record. And I wonder if the "8" ending tonight in the PWCC auction will reach the magic 500K level? Can I stand the excitement?

[Leon]

I think there are a lot of investors in at these levels. I don't think that is bad or good, just making a statement.
Only time will tell if the prices are sustained but this 8 will be a record when it ends...It is already 15% above the one sold in the Goldin Live auction. This card is on fire.....

http://www.ebay.com/itm/1952-Topps-M...EAAOSw5VFWMpF8


.

[Stonepony]

I think the card tonight will eclipse $500,000 and have no idea when the 52 and 52 tide will peak. I'm anticipating $ to start heading into the higher grade later issues with some vigor.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Stonepony

I think the card tonight will eclipse $500,000 and have no idea when the 52 and 52 tide will peak. I'm anticipating $ to start heading into the higher grade later issues with some vigor.

Those cards are so plentiful even in high grade that I am not sure you will see that spillover effect, but who knows.

[pokerplyr80]

Originally Posted by Stonepony

I think the card tonight will eclipse $500,000 and have no idea when the 52 and 52 tide will peak. I'm anticipating $ to start heading into the higher grade later issues with some vigor.

It seems to me that later Mantle issues in 8 or 9 have already been going up quite a bit lately. Especially centered ones.

[Exhibitman]

The frequency of these cards coming to market should not be surprising; they are not rare. 1952 T Mantle PSA pop 1,293 [117 of which are 7 or better, unqualified]. For contrast: PSA T206 Wagner pop 33 plus 2 qualified cards. Put another way, there are three times as many slabbed PSA 7 or better Mantles than there are Wagners in any grade. And yes, I realize there are some resubs in the PSA list but the overall point remains.

[1952boyntoncollector]

the RC is a waterfront property on the intercoastal...the 1953 ..if its waterfront its on a canal..maybe navigable ..maybe not...after that I don't really see the rest of the mantles getting that same type of attention...but maybe at the psa 8 level....basically a POP thing....

unfortunately many of my waterfront cards are just on a drainage ditches

[HRBAKER]

Is the '52 a RC?

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by HRBAKER

Is the '52 a RC?

According to SGC it is, for some reason.

[PolarBear]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

According to SGC it is, for some reason.

I've always thought the 52T rookie designation was weird. The 51 Bowman is a 10x better looking card anyway.

[Stonepony]

Originally Posted by 1952boyntoncollector

the RC is a waterfront property on the intercoastal...the 1953 ..if its waterfront its on a canal..maybe navigable ..maybe not...after that I don't really see the rest of the mantles getting that same type of attention...but maybe at the psa 8 level....basically a POP thing....

unfortunately many of my waterfront cards are just on a drainage ditches

Same type of attention? No. However it's Mantle and he's arguably a top 5-10 player collected. If his cards ( all years) don't do well in the future, that doesn't bode well for the hobby in general. I'm reminded often that scarcity/rarity almost always takes a backseat to popularity and they don't come much more popular that the Mick

[Leon]

Originally Posted by PolarBear

I've always thought the 52T rookie designation was weird. The 51 Bowman is a 10x better looking card anyway.

Topps is the biggest and most prolific card company ever. The '52 Topps Mantle is iconic and his FTC (First Topps Card). These analogies remind me of the T206 Wags. Most non collectors think it's his rarest card. It's nowhere close but it is his most known and iconic hence the price. Same as the '52 Mick.

Personally I like his '51 Bowman as much as the '52 Topps.

[PolarBear]

Originally Posted by Leon

Topps is the biggest and most prolific card company ever. The '52 Topps Mantle is iconic and his FTC (First Topps Card). These analogies remind me of the T206 Wags. Most non collectors think it's his rarest card. It's nowhere close but it is his most known and iconic hence the price. Same as the '52 Mick.

Personally I like his '51 Bowman as much as the '52 Topps.

I get the whole Topps mystique, it's just weird a lot of people think the 52T is Mantle's rookie. Interestingly though, that doesn't seem to be the case with Mays. I think you're on to something with an FTC designation though. That makes the most sense to me.

[HRBAKER]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

According to SGC it is, for some reason.

Well that settles it.

[1952boyntoncollector]

Originally Posted by PolarBear

I get the whole Topps mystique, it's just weird a lot of people think the 52T is Mantle's rookie. Interestingly though, that doesn't seem to be the case with Mays. I think you're on to something with an FTC designation though. That makes the most sense to me.

in theory every 1952 Topps cards is the FTC.....yeah i know about those topps 51s..but you know what im talking about

[1952boyntoncollector]

Originally Posted by Stonepony

Same type of attention? No. However it's Mantle and he's arguably a top 5-10 player collected. If his cards ( all years) don't do well in the future, that doesn't bode well for the hobby in general. I'm reminded often that scarcity/rarity almost always takes a backseat to popularity and they don't come much more popular that the Mick

i agree with some of what you said...mantle cards do have a premium versus regular cards and its definitely about popularity which impacts scarcity or not...lots of cards are very very rare but no one wants them so theres no value there...

but yeah when a hobby goes down the main cards keep their value and the rest goes in the tank..so that is a possibility..like i said before..even in the housing crisis years ago the waterfront properties were still going strong..people threw their money on the 'safe' stuff... houses across the street inland were getting crushed even though they were in the same neighborhood, sometimes just across the street...i have seen mantles psa 8s do well in later years..so they still doing well...but i judge a waterfront property/card a few ways:

1. could there be an exponential rise in price just due to centering (cards going for what was previously though to be 2 or 3 grades higher etc) Call it the pretty picture test..like the ty cobb psa 5.5 that sold today

2. do even bad condition cards cost more than the average person puts in their collection (mantle psa 2s in late years for example can be had for very cheap) A 1952 Topps psa 1 mantle still costs a TTON

3. There are more conditions as well but giving you a gist on what i think...i could be wrong with my whole line of thought..but just giving you what i mean by waterfront properties..

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by PolarBear

I've always thought the 52T rookie designation was weird. The 51 Bowman is a 10x better looking card anyway.

It's not just weird, it's flat out wrong. A second year card is not a rookie. But SGC labels it a rookie.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by 1952boyntoncollector

in theory every 1952 Topps cards is the FTC.....yeah i know about those topps 51s..but you know what im talking about

You made my point. Mantle is the most valuable post war player. Put that with the biggest and by far most prolific card mfg'er and you have a perfect storm. Not a rare card but actually scarce due to it's desirability (this could be debated).

[1952boyntoncollector]

Originally Posted by Leon

You made my point. Mantle is the most valuable post war player. Put that with the biggest and by far most prolific card mfg'er and you have a perfect storm. Not a rare card but actually scarce do to it's desirability (this could be debated).

well also basically when it was real close to a rookie year you would see the FTC designation...also the legend of the 1952 Topps Mantle grows...IN Fact even the past few weeks may of added to the legend...there may be some 30 year olds following these sales and 20 years from now they are bidding 500k because of what they are experiencing now...some people buy fancy cars for their definition of 'success' some buy artwork or cards..to each their own....I just don't see those same 30 year olds bidding more than the current SMR is for 1952 Topps commons 30 years from now.....

[pkaufman]

Demand sometimes overwhelms supply.

[tiger8mush]

Originally Posted by PolarBear

I've always thought the 52T rookie designation was weird. The 51 Bowman is a 10x better looking card anyway.

Personally I like Mantle's '52B more than the '52T as well, maybe its only cuz I can afford it

[4815162342]

Mantle is the new T206 in board topics.

[Sophiedog]

That 52 Mantle is a Beauty Rob

[glynparson]

as a 7 year old in 1979. I have been hearing how overpriced this card is since that time yet it continues to increase in value. It often has these huge jumps in price throughout its history. They level off and may make a minor pull back but its always far above previous levels. Then a time period passes and we go through this process all over again.

[Paul S]

I'm more mystified about the PWCC 52T hammer price because with all the emphasis people seem to put on eye appeal and centering, the image has a tilt within its' borders - unless it's a scanner issue, which I doubt. (Maybe a 9-10 with a qualifier, instead?.) PSA registry thingie

[Leon]

Originally Posted by Paul S

I'm more mystified about the PWCC 52T hammer price because with all the emphasis people seem to put on eye appeal and centering, the image has a tilt within its' borders - unless it's a scanner issue, which I doubt. (Maybe a 9-10 with a qualifier, instead?.) PSA registry thingie

3 bidders at 460k or more.....very very strong. It's a great 8 though maybe not the absolute best. The consignor should be quite happy on that one.

http://offer.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.d...p2047675.l2565


.

[1952boyntoncollector]

If you are PWCC and the high bidder doesn't pay for the 52 Mantle...you cant relist it right? nobody would want to consign a card like that again..

Thus, we may be seeing this card at another AH in 2016......

[Delray Vintage]

I am surprised but can't say shocked that a PSA 6 is at 82,000 at Goodwin auction already. I know it is a beautiful card but has the market gone crazy? Has Mickey become the darling of every Wall Street investor? Markets make the price but can anyone say bubble.

[Sophiedog]

There are 3 1952 Mantle PSA 10's out there. Wonder what one of them would bring. 3 Million?

[Delray Vintage]

If an 8 is going for 500,000 then a 9 would be 1.5 million, and a ten probably 3 mil or more. Some hedge fund manager yankee fan would know that a 10 is so rare that they may never get another chance. So my guess is it could top 3 million, possibly 5 million.

[pokerplyr80]

Originally Posted by Delray Vintage

If an 8 is going for 500,000 then a 9 would be 1.5 million, and a ten probably 3 mil or more. Some hedge fund manager yankee fan would know that a 10 is so rare that they may never get another chance. So my guess is it could top 3 million, possibly 5 million.

I would not be surprised to see it break the trimmed Wagner record if auctioned today. Like you said it could be years or decades before another came up. 5 mil doesn't sound impossible.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Delray Vintage

If an 8 is going for 500,000 then a 9 would be 1.5 million, and a ten probably 3 mil or more. Some hedge fund manager yankee fan would know that a 10 is so rare that they may never get another chance. So my guess is it could top 3 million, possibly 5 million.

All depends on how badly the second hedge fund manager yankee fan wants it.

[Delray Vintage]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

All depends on how badly the second hedge fund manager yankee fan wants it.

No doubt a mantle PSA 10 would top the PSA 8 wagner in price. The hype on a 10 at auction would be extraordinary. The guys making a billion a year on Wall Street would jump at it. Price, sky is the limit but would set the record for any card ever sold.

[glynparson]

Anyone have a 9 for 1.5 I can make a nice commission and still get you the 1.5. It is a minimum 2 million dollar card in a PSA 9 at the current time. I believe a 10 could hit 5 or more if offered for sale. Remember the fit Rosen through when Marshall bought his. Guess he doesn't feel it was such a stupid move anymore.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by glynparson

Anyone have a 9 for 1.5 I can make a nice commission and still get you the 1.5. It is a minimum 2 million dollar card in a PSA 9 at the current time. I believe a 10 could hit 5 or more if offered for sale. Remember the fit Rosen through when Marshall bought his. Guess he doesn't feel it was such a stupid move anymore.

Who would have thought a decent but not great 6 would go for 85k?

[1952boyntoncollector]

Originally Posted by Leon

Who would have thought a decent but not great 6 would go for 85k?

I think in 5=10 years we will say who would of thought psa 6's would go for 30k after seeing them go for 60-130k...housing bubble all over again....I know if I bought one it would be with the intention of selling it in a year or two to 'flip' it...no way I hold for years and years..

[rats60]

Originally Posted by 1952boyntoncollector

I think in 5=10 years we will say who would of thought psa 6's would go for 30k after seeing them go for 60-130k...housing bubble all over again....I know if I bought one it would be with the intention of selling it in a year or two to 'flip' it...no way I hold for years and years..

I agree. It just seems like there are too many of them for the price to continue to rise. I can see well centered 8s, 9s and 10s rising, but the rest seems to be a huge bubble to me.

[MattyC]

Originally Posted by 1952boyntoncollector

I think in 5=10 years we will say who would of thought psa 6's would go for 30k after seeing them go for 60-130k...housing bubble all over again....I know if I bought one it would be with the intention of selling it in a year or two to 'flip' it...no way I hold for years and years..

I disagree. I buy them, and intend to hold mine til I croak. This is because I buy things to collect and enjoy, not to worry over what they might cost in a decade, especially based on internet prognostications. So I'll take the sure thing of the decade of sheer enjoyment over the maybe scenario from the internet guy. Some of us actually get great enjoyment from cards, and would never part with a favorite piece because of what it may cost in 10 years.

As to the monetary side of things, there are decades of history now that show the 52T Mantle appreciating in price over the long haul, peppered with occasional surges. So if I am betting, I am weighting that long history most, and deem it more likely to continue, rather than it breaking for what would be an unprecedented anomalous event.

[Sean1125]

Originally Posted by MattyC

I disagree. I buy them, and intend to hold mine til I croak. This is because I buy things to collect and enjoy, not to worry over what they might cost in a decade, especially based on internet prognostications. So I'll take the sure thing of the decade of sheer enjoyment over the maybe scenario from the internet guy. Some of us actually get great enjoyment from cards, and would never part with a favorite piece because of what it may cost in 10 years.

As to the monetary side of things, there are decades of history now that show the 52T Mantle appreciating in price over the long haul, peppered with occasional surges. So if I am betting, I am weighting that long history most, and deem it more likely to continue, rather than it breaking for what would be an unprecedented anomalous event.

I'll hold them after you croak

[1952boyntoncollector]

Originally Posted by MattyC

I disagree. I buy them, and intend to hold mine til I croak. This is because I buy things to collect and enjoy, not to worry over what they might cost in a decade, especially based on internet prognostications. So I'll take the sure thing of the decade of sheer enjoyment over the maybe scenario from the internet guy. Some of us actually get great enjoyment from cards, and would never part with a favorite piece because of what it may cost in 10 years.

As to the monetary side of things, there are decades of history now that show the 52T Mantle appreciating in price over the long haul, peppered with occasional surges. So if I am betting, I am weighting that long history most, and deem it more likely to continue, rather than it breaking for what would be an unprecedented anomalous event.

I hope there are 1000s of collectors like you that would be GREAT for the hobby..but time will tell...if we see Mantles hitting the market that were bought a year or two ago we know those aren't collectors like you..

[MattyC]

Originally Posted by rats60

I agree. It just seems like there are too many of them for the price to continue to rise. I can see well centered 8s, 9s and 10s rising, but the rest seems to be a huge bubble to me.

Nice looking 52T Mantles in any grade are scarce relative to the demand for them. The number of guys who want a nice one in each grade/price range far outstrips the supply.

[MetsBaseball1973]

Originally Posted by MattyC

I disagree. I buy them, and intend to hold mine til I croak. This is because I buy things to collect and enjoy, not to worry over what they might cost in a decade, especially based on internet prognostications. So I'll take the sure thing of the decade of sheer enjoyment over the maybe scenario from the internet guy. Some of us actually get great enjoyment from cards, and would never part with a favorite piece because of what it may cost in 10 years.

As to the monetary side of things, there are decades of history now that show the 52T Mantle appreciating in price over the long haul, peppered with occasional surges. So if I am betting, I am weighting that long history most, and deem it more likely to continue, rather than it breaking for what would be an unprecedented anomalous event.

Well said. +1.

I think many folks, like myself, want one or have wanted one with much desire, but the card has taken another of its periodical "surges" you mention.

When one misses the boat like this, a human being has two ways they can react (of course among others)...

One choice is to work harder to try and obtain one ASAP.

The other choice is to soothe oneself by saying, "The card price is gonna crash, so I'm actually happy that I can't get one right now."

I am not deluding myself. The card is an icon to any baseball card collector, and even "hobby outsiders" I have met greet that card with a pure smile.

I am choosing to work harder and one day get one.

I think to wait ten years or even five for something I love-- when life can be nasty, brutish, and short, as the saying goes---- is folly. Especially when realizing that history, lots of history, says the card---- and undoubtedly its nicer specimens in each and every grade---- will keep rising in price. Especially when the view that prices will suddenly come down out of nowhere in ten years is likely (in my own opinion, thinking from a psychology point of view) a view that comes from a place of not having what one desires.

In summation, I tip my cap to those who already own one (a double tip of the cap if the card is even partially centered!). It must give you gentlemen much pleasure to hold and look at. I will know that pleasure soon.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by MattyC

Nice looking 52T Mantles in any grade are scarce relative to the demand for them. The number of guys who want a nice one in each grade/price range far outstrips the supply.

I agree 100%. Not rare but very "scarce" for whatever reasons.

[rats60]

Originally Posted by 1952boyntoncollector

I hope there are 1000s of collectors like you that would be GREAT for the hobby..but time will tell...if we see Mantles hitting the market that were bought a year or two ago we know those aren't collectors like you..

There was no shortage in the last Heritage auction.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Leon

Who would have thought a decent but not great 6 would go for 85k?

Goodwin now at 100.

[ALR-bishop]

I collect Topps, Bowman and Fleer sets so collecting Mantle has just been a necessity. I think I have all of his Bowman and Topps issues except the 61 Dice, 66 Punch Out and 68 Disc. But being a variations collector as well, that meant 2 of the 52s.

I have no idea who is right about the future, but glad I bought when I did rather than wait for the prices to come down. Don't think I would have made it.

[1952boyntoncollector]

Originally Posted by MetsBaseball1973

Well said. +1.

I think many folks, like myself, want one or have wanted one with much desire, but the card has taken another of its periodical "surges" you mention.

When one misses the boat like this, a human being has two ways they can react (of course among others)...

One choice is to work harder to try and obtain one ASAP.

The other choice is to soothe oneself by saying, "The card price is gonna crash, so I'm actually happy that I can't get one right now."

I am not deluding myself. The card is an icon to any baseball card collector, and even "hobby outsiders" I have met greet that card with a pure smile.

I am choosing to work harder and one day get one.

I think to wait ten years or even five for something I love-- when life can be nasty, brutish, and short, as the saying goes---- is folly. Especially when realizing that history, lots of history, says the card---- and undoubtedly its nicer specimens in each and every grade---- will keep rising in price. Especially when the view that prices will suddenly come down out of nowhere in ten years is likely (in my own opinion, thinking from a psychology point of view) a view that comes from a place of not having what one desires.

In summation, I tip my cap to those who already own one (a double tip of the cap if the card is even partially centered!). It must give you gentlemen much pleasure to hold and look at. I will know that pleasure soon.

yeah like you said there are more ways to react than just two.......but prices just don't continue to come up or you cant assume that ...I remember they said that about real estate.....there is a thing called price adjustment...anyway we shall see in 5-10 years......you can post something on the that time capsule thread I started and open it 10 years from now and can show how you were right..

[Sean]

Originally Posted by MetsBaseball1973

Well said. +1.

I think many folks, like myself, want one or have wanted one with much desire, but the card has taken another of its periodical "surges" you mention.

When one misses the boat like this, a human being has two ways they can react (of course among others)...

One choice is to work harder to try and obtain one ASAP.

The other choice is to soothe oneself by saying, "The card price is gonna crash, so I'm actually happy that I can't get one right now."

I am not deluding myself. The card is an icon to any baseball card collector, and even "hobby outsiders" I have met greet that card with a pure smile.

I am choosing to work harder and one day get one.

I think to wait ten years or even five for something I love-- when life can be nasty, brutish, and short, as the saying goes---- is folly. Especially when realizing that history, lots of history, says the card---- and undoubtedly its nicer specimens in each and every grade---- will keep rising in price. Especially when the view that prices will suddenly come down out of nowhere in ten years is likely (in my own opinion, thinking from a psychology point of view) a view that comes from a place of not having what one desires.

In summation, I tip my cap to those who already own one (a double tip of the cap if the card is even partially centered!). It must give you gentlemen much pleasure to hold and look at. I will know that pleasure soon.

Mr. Mets, you remind me of myself 13 years ago when I was thinking about a T206 Plank. I just missed a PSA 3 that sold for $12k. I decided to go harder for the next one...and the next and the next ... but I finally got one.

It was the best collecting move I ever made. If I had waited for the price to drop? Well, that same PSA 3 that I missed is selling around $70k today. So good luck getting the Mantle, and once you get it I hope that you enjoy it as much as I enjoy my Plank.

[pokerplyr80]

I think with recent prices you will start to see more pop up that people had bought purely for investment purposes. Only time will tell if the market can sustain these prices, but I can't imagine they will keep this pace up. Anyone who bought a centered 5 or better more than a year ago has to be pretty happy right now.

[Delray Vintage]

Originally Posted by pokerplyr80

I think with recent prices you will start to see more pop up that people had bought purely for investment purposes. Only time will tell if the market can sustain these prices, but I can't imagine they will keep this pace up. Anyone who bought a centered 5 or better more than a year ago has to be pretty happy right now.

These rapid escalations are never sustainable. Yes, it seems like now everyone must own a 52 Mantle and therefore the price can only rise. We know that is how bubbles occur. Of course the Mantle is worth what someone will pay for it until the bubble pops. You have to wonder who will be the one losing a ton of money on a 150k PSA 6 which it seems will happen soon. We can all say we are in it for the joy of collecting but I want joy and a good investment. Loving my 52 at a good acquisition price will give me more joy than seeing it drop 50% in the next recession. Just saying be careful my collecting friends because crazy price rises are just that, crazy.