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  #1  
Old 06-26-2016, 09:07 AM
griffon512 griffon512 is offline
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Default Proposed Change to Lessen Manipulative Bidding/Conversation with PWCC/Input Wanted

this is a long entry, but please bear with me and give input on the suggestions i make below on alleviating price manipulation. i realize this is a topic that has been written about ad nauseam, but hopefully i’m presenting a slightly different angle and have received positive feedback from the largest card auction house on ebay. your input/feedback will give us a much better probability of making these suggestions a reality across all the major auction houses on ebay.

the next couple of paragraphs give context for what i believe is fueling much higher prices in segments of the market, and the other paragraphs are focused on a change that as a community we can facilitate that i and a number of others believe will result in meaningfully less manipulation of prices. skip the next couple of paragraphs and jump to the paragraph that starts "with this context in mind" if you get bored. the last part of the post is my feedback after a conversation with brent, the head of pwcc.

one of the areas most discussed on this board is manipulation of prices through shill bidding. it is conventional wisdom that the sentences handed out to bill mastro and doug allen has done little to curb the amount of shill bidding. the huge appreciation in high grade cards of hall of famers/iconic players across all sports is likely the combination of new money coming into the hobby (“investors”) and price manipulation, causing these cards to be re-valued much higher. for those that haven’t participated by buying these cards there is a sense of guilt for having missed the boat and the presumption that the appreciation will continue, fueling them to participate in reaching for prices they find ridiculous. this reinforces that the inflated prices will at least be maintained…and they will until the marginal buyer stops reaching and supply starts to overwhelm demand. having spent over 15 years on wall street as a research analyst and money manager, this is the same dynamic i have seen in every bubble.

for what it is worth, i think the current rapid increase in prices in parts of the card market has the same source as what has fueled other asset classes, like the stock market over the last several years. the source is monetary policy of the federal reserve in this country and global central banks. since 2009 the federal reserve has literally printed trillions of dollars from thin air. they use this newly created money to purchase bonds in the open market, and in so doing increase the prices of these bonds (which lowers their yield and interest rate on newly issued bonds). the federal reserve justifies printing trillions of dollars from thin air because they believe lower interest rates would help people re-finance their homes at lower rates, increase asset prices (e.g., stock market), and spur corporate investments given the lower cost of borrowing. the downside is this policy is inflationary over time (hurting poor people the most), leads to a wealth gap (the rich are getting richer because they have the most exposure to risky assets like stocks while much of the middle class and poor people don’t benefit or are hurt as their costs of living go up without the same degree of exposure to risky assets that are inflating), and fuels speculative bubbles. the speculative bubbles are driven by safer alternatives of investing one’s assets (e.g., buying government bonds) yielding next to nothing because interest rates are so low.

this causes a search for yield, i.e., higher returns, which compels people to buy stocks instead of bonds. the monetary policies undertaken to reflate the economy following the “great recession” are unprecedented both in this country and the rest of the world. numerous bubbles have popped up as a result of this dynamic, including, in my view, parts of the high end card market. this doesn’t feel much different to me than what i saw in the tech bubble in the late 90’s. in fact, a number of the new “investors” in the card market are silicon valley and wall street workers who are rotating money out of other assets and/or putting new money to work. as others have written in this forum, investment buyers are a meaningful percentage of the bidders chasing cards and it doesn’t take a lot of them to impact prices, especially when “collectors” start to follow their lead. sorry if this explanation of the context for what’s happening in the card market was longwinded or redundant for many of you. just wanted to set the table for the more important part of the post that follows.

with this context in mind, the question still remains: what is the most practical way to significantly alleviate the degree of price manipulation in high end card market of many hofers/iconic figures, where the kindle for the fire is everything I described above? the simplest, practical to implement, and timely potential change that came to mind has to do with bid retractions on ebay. the major auction houses on ebay are setting record prices every day among the cards i mentioned before. in looking at the bid history on ebay of many of these cards there is a consistent theme: a very high number of bid retractions over the last 6 months (ebay discloses the number over this timeframe) from some of the major bidders.

i think this is more indicative of a problem than % of bid activity with a given seller since a number of “investors” will follow just one or two ebay auctions houses because of time constraints, reliability of their service, etc. in my view, there are two major reasons for a high number of bid retractions. the first is when someone gets cold feet following a bid – call it potential buyer’s remorse or buyers remorse. the “oh sh_t” feeling we get when we bite off more than we can chew in money terms. the second -- and much more common – reason for a bid retraction is the bid was made solely to increase the price (shill bid) with an ulterior motive. my strong suggestion – which we need support from other board members to get strength from numbers/affect change – is that in the future the major ebay auction houses do not allow bidding from those who have above a certain of bid retractions over the last 6 months. i think the number should be low (like 2), but it’s open to debate. i routinely see the number of bid retractions over 6 months be greater than 20. that is inexcusable in almost every scenario i can think of.

in the middle of an auction i was bidding on -- where one of the bidders had around 20 bid retractions and following other auctions on ebay from different sellers that appeared to be shilled -- i got fed up and put a call into pwcc to notify them of what i was seeing in one of their auctions. after talking to one other person at pwcc who was helpful and friendly, he made the suggestion that i talk to brent. brent took the initiative and called me shortly after. i want to preface this by saying that although i post infrequently, i read the board often and find the vitriole directed at various parties and individuals unnecessary and counterproductive to a shared goal: having a healthy hobby with a lot of players where price is determined by bidding that is not manipulated.

if the feedback from my post devolves into personal attacks it will compromise this goal. i have consistently had good experiences buying from pwcc in terms of their customer service and quality of their offering. i had a very productive and informative conversation with brent, which was focused on bid retractions as a form of price manipulation. brent informed me that they have individuals on staff that are frequently citing instances of abuse to ebay. the most important subject that came out of the conversation is that pwcc, unbeknownst to me, is going to come out with new policies in the near future that, among other issues addressed, specifically aim to alleviate the bid retraction problem. i was going to write this post anyway, but brent reinforced that he wanted as much feedback as possible (again, not ad hominem attacks) from our community on what they can do to better address the issues affecting us. this feedback will allow them to shape their policies. one additional note, even if these high bid retractions bidders are not allowed to bid, they can start new accounts although brett informed me there are restrictions on their ability to bid and there are obvious other issues with "starting over." still, it's a potential problem. what can be done to alleviate this issue?

there will always be some manipulation in any asset class because money is involved, but there are steps we can take to make things better. please post your feedback on the bid retraction idea and/or other steps! thanks, james

Last edited by griffon512; 06-26-2016 at 02:37 PM.
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  #2  
Old 06-26-2016, 09:22 AM
1952boyntoncollector 1952boyntoncollector is offline
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one 'quick fix' can be if there is ever a bid retraction on an auction you 'won' you have the option of canceling with no recourse.... i know its not a total fix but i know i would drop out of any auction in which someone bid more than me, then 'retracted'...i would than drop out of that auction but right now i always honor paying on any items i 'won'...so if the rules were clear i coudl get out of a 'win' if there was a bid retraction that may prevent some abuse
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Old 06-26-2016, 09:48 AM
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Originally Posted by 1952boyntoncollector View Post
one 'quick fix' can be if there is ever a bid retraction on an auction you 'won' you have the option of canceling with no recourse.... i know its not a total fix but i know i would drop out of any auction in which someone bid more than me, then 'retracted'...i would than drop out of that auction but right now i always honor paying on any items i 'won'...so if the rules were clear i coudl get out of a 'win' if there was a bid retraction that may prevent some abuse
I'd take it a step further and say that whenever there is a bid retraction, the bidder who then holds the highest bid should have the option at that point of pulling their bid back as well, and so on, down the line if necessary, until no existing bid was the result of having been inflated by the retracted bid. Everyone should know that every bid they place is against a sincere bidder and not someone who has, or will, retract their bid.

For auction houses, if this is a serious problem, perhaps they should consider having all bidders give them a deposit prior to auction close, that would be non-refundable in case of a retraction that didn't have merit. For ebay, they should automatically ban users after their third retraction, and cross-reference new users (by PayPal account, bank account, credit card numbers, name and address, and so on) to make it harder for them to skirt the rule by opening new accounts.

I recently bid in an auction (the seller was a forum member here in fact,) where I was outbid and that bid was cancelled (not retracted) apparently because the bidder had 0 feedback. It wasn't an issue as I was outbid later anyway but at the time, the cancellation reverted me into the top position. So, the same policy should apply for both retractions and cancellations.

Last edited by Mark17; 06-26-2016 at 09:54 AM. Reason: clarified first paragraph a bit
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  #4  
Old 06-26-2016, 10:17 AM
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Whew, I had to take a nap in the middle of that first post. The only way any of this will change is if collectors stop buying. I don't see that happening any time soon. Until I go to sell, which will be the same day collectors stop buying.
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Old 06-26-2016, 10:53 AM
FirstYearCards FirstYearCards is offline
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I bid what I am willing to pay and walk away. If it somehow gets bid up to my price, no problem, that's what I was willing to pay.
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  #6  
Old 06-26-2016, 11:06 AM
griffon512 griffon512 is offline
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ok...but the point is if bidders with a number of bid retractions over the last 6 months are not allowed to bid in an auction it is more likely that you would pay a lower price on some items. is that something you want or don't want?
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Old 06-26-2016, 11:16 AM
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Is that a post or the first half of Moby Dick?
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Old 06-26-2016, 11:16 AM
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I'm not so sure the retractions are having as big of an impact as you think. A lot of ebay bidders, myself included, will place an early bid or two, but save the real bid for a last minute snipe. If a bid or two had been made and retracted along the way I might not even notice. If someone shill bids up to my max with 5 days left and then retracts, what have they really gained? It was probably far from what my snipe will be in the end.

I do agree that retractions shouldn't be used as a tool to determine another bidder's max. I would support banning those from auctions with more than a couple of retractions, or banning retractions all together. I believe most, if not all other auctions have language in their terms and conditions that say all bids are final and no retractions are allowed. Perhaps changing the ebay policy would be a solution.
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  #9  
Old 06-26-2016, 11:32 AM
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Aren't these changes ebay would have to enact not PWCC? If thats the case I don't know any of this even matters.
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Old 06-26-2016, 11:42 AM
FirstYearCards FirstYearCards is offline
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Like Robert's name implies (iwantitiwinit). If you want the card, buy it. If you are putting in an early bid and it gets bid up, you are involved in the game the shill is playing. Don't play the game! Snipe or put in your bid early(what you value the card at) and be done with it.
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Last edited by FirstYearCards; 06-26-2016 at 11:43 AM.
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  #11  
Old 06-26-2016, 11:42 AM
griffon512 griffon512 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iwantitiwinit View Post
Aren't these changes ebay would have to enact not PWCC? If thats the case I don't know any of this even matters.
no. pwcc or any other auction house can do it.
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Old 06-26-2016, 12:11 PM
JustCollectVP JustCollectVP is offline
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This response is with respect to eBay auctions as auction houses are an entirely different bidding entity that requires a different bidding strategy and execution.

Setting snipes helps avert some of the "shilling" and retraction issues addressed by the OP.

However, if someone is shilling an auction, they are usually doing so to either inflate the potential final sales price, entice bidders into believing that there's a bidding war or to set a floor or reserve for the item. And they are usually doing this in the earlier stages of the auction, not in the closing hours or minutes (eBay restricts retractions in the final hours).

Retractions are most often used to "out" an underbidder's maximum bid. Not such a concern when they happen early in an auction as the serious bidding has yet to take place, but still a concern.

Personally, I think too many spend too much time worrying about the "what ifs" and the "am I getting shilled" to enjoy the chase of cards that they want. And then the sword cuts again when they win, as they feel cheated and when they lose, they have a built in excuse.

Simply snipe it. Set your and let your bid roll out in the last seconds. Too late to have someone retract a bid on you and too late for a shilling to react if they haven't already capped your bid...
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Old 06-26-2016, 12:16 PM
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The easiest solution is to stop playing where you think this is going on.
This is an unregulated industry, ebay has done everything they can to make their process as opaque as possible to bidders and buyers.

The biggest problem is our inability to say no thanks.
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Old 06-26-2016, 12:49 PM
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Default Retractions

I would favor eBay limiting retractions and suspending someone who exceeded the limit, which should be a minimal number. If one eBay seller adopts such a policy I applaud the seller but to be effective it has to be an eBay initiative in the end.

I too snipe and thus do not pay more than I am wiling to venture, but serial retractors would seem to raise prices in general....and they are annoying people
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Old 06-26-2016, 01:22 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FirstYearCards View Post
Like Robert's name implies (iwantitiwinit). If you want the card, buy it. If you are putting in an early bid and it gets bid up, you are involved in the game the shill is playing. Don't play the game! Snipe or put in your bid early(what you value the card at) and be done with it.
To me there is a big difference between a shill bidder and a bidder who reneges (retracts - basically same thing.)

A shill bidder is just another person you have to bid against if you want to win an item. If the bidding gets too high, drop out. If the shill bidder tries to push your bid up further but you decide not to do so, the joke, and expenses, are on him.

Someone who bids and reneges is either a shill bidder who is not willing to pay the consequences of failing to push your bid higher, or he does so in order to gain private information - namely, what the max bid is. In the first scenario you're bidding against a ghost who is trying to maximize what you will pay, while running no risk of expense himself, and in the other, he is basically making your max bid public information.

So ask yourself, when you place a max bid, would it bother you if the AH knew what it was? Would it bother you if everyone seriously watching that item knew what it was?

Somebody wants to shill bid me I don't care, as long as he/she pays when I don't take the bait. People who retract (renege) on their bids are cheating and it is a problem.
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Old 06-26-2016, 01:30 PM
begsu1013 begsu1013 is offline
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again, some people intentionally bid up in small increments til they top out and then retract SOLELY to drive away other perspective bidders.

manipulation is happening, simply not as widespread as everyone that missed the boat thinks though. still have yet to see one lick of solitary proof other than he said, she said.

concentrate on your game. not their's.
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Old 06-26-2016, 01:31 PM
FirstYearCards FirstYearCards is offline
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I really couldn't care less who knows what my max bid is. If I bid on a card and its pushed up to the max, that's what I'm willing to pay. Nobody told me to bid more than I wanted to.

If I do plan on the card as an investment and plan to resell, then I'm a moron for bidding more than the card was worth in the first place. And yes this has happened to me and as I have overbid plenty of times. In the end, it's what I was comfortable paying.

By the way, I typically snipe on Ebay, get an opening bid in AH's so I can put my real bid in extended bidding and generally offer my best price to people here on BST(with a little wiggle room).
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Old 06-26-2016, 01:33 PM
griffon512 griffon512 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mark17 View Post
To me there is a big difference between a shill bidder and a bidder who reneges (retracts - basically same thing.)

A shill bidder is just another person you have to bid against if you want to win an item. If the bidding gets too high, drop out. If the shill bidder tries to push your bid up further but you decide not to do so, the joke, and expenses, are on him.

Someone who bids and reneges is either a shill bidder who is not willing to pay the consequences of failing to push your bid higher, or he does so in order to gain private information - namely, what the max bid is. In the first scenario you're bidding against a ghost who is trying to maximize what you will pay, while running no risk of expense himself, and in the other, he is basically making your max bid public information.

So ask yourself, when you place a max bid, would it bother you if the AH knew what it was? Would it bother you if everyone seriously watching that item knew what it was?

Somebody wants to shill bid me I don't care, as long as he/she pays when I don't take the bait. People who retract (renege) on their bids are cheating and it is a problem.
great points, thanks for your input
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Old 06-26-2016, 01:46 PM
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Is that a post or the first half of Moby Dick?
Classic, very funny stuff
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Old 06-26-2016, 01:51 PM
griffon512 griffon512 is offline
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i know they are difficult to distinguish...moby dick being a 5 page book.
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Old 06-26-2016, 02:16 PM
begsu1013 begsu1013 is offline
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i know they are difficult to distinguish...moby dick being a 5 page book.
o whale.
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Old 06-26-2016, 02:16 PM
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I would rather read James' lengthy, but well-articulated thoughts that actually propose a solution instead of another pithy post whining about high BIN prices. I'd also rather read these posts than my own posts arguing with some dude in the BST.

To the OP's original position, I agree that banning those with a high retraction rate would be a positive first step, but I also agree that there are other forces at play driving prices beyond serial retractors.
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Old 06-26-2016, 02:23 PM
begsu1013 begsu1013 is offline
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anything concrete on these other forces?
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Old 06-26-2016, 02:23 PM
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It admittedly has been many years since I sold personally on Ebay, I left due to the prevalence of returns for buyer's remorse, NBP's and the inability to leave negative feedback for buyers.

In the past when placing an auction the seller could set a minimum feedback for bidders, Block buyer's with recent neg's and also (I believe) block NPB's.

If Ebay still has those settings forgive me, but I think offering the option to block bidders who withdrew more than one bid int the past 30 days, or had any NPB's. Withdrawals should also require the permission of the seller and if not given, the bidder should be forced to NPB and risk a ban for the "error".

These would be a boon to both sellers and bidders and a win-win. Also blocking anyone with a feedback less than 10, with the ability to email the seller for permission to bid.

Blocking people with Neg's means nothing now if you can't leave a negative for anyone.

As they are unlikely to do this, it is left on the shoulders of responsible sellers. It is easy for them to block a shill account once identified, but the shill will just make another. It's a difficult thing to resolve when Ebay wants no part of it.
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Old 06-26-2016, 02:53 PM
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Honestly, I think more bids are retracted to scare bidders off an item than there are to inflate a hammer price. It's not spoke of as much as shill bidding, but yes plenty of people have alternate accounts just to bid and retract multiple times to thin the buyer pool. I've argue before, as many have, bid your max and forget about the rest. To me it's not worth losing sleep over if I overpaid by 20% on a baseball card. To some it is, and they'll believe to the end it's bad for the hobby. It's no different than someone's political affiliation. Those that believe it's a minor nuisance will likely always believe that and those believe it's systemic cancer will also always hold that point of view. EBay isn't going to change their business model in a way that negatively affect their bottom line and an upstart competitor can't take their business without massive capital, at which point it would more than likely be eBay 2.0. I'm interested to hear Brent changes, but based upon the setup site he uses, it can likely only stunt the problem.
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Old 06-26-2016, 03:04 PM
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i like the way steven thinks.

the retractions, at least some of the time, are done to have the opposite effect....to keep the prices down. not to inflate them, but still could be guised as "price manipulation".

they've simply tricked you into not bidding on the item due to your solid stance about not participating in a "shilled" auction. no more, no less.
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Old 06-26-2016, 03:26 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iwantitiwinit View Post
Aren't these changes ebay would have to enact not PWCC? If thats the case I don't know any of this even matters.
I block buyers when I have trouble with them. PWCC can certainly do the same. If someone with 20 retractions bids then retracts in a PWCC auction they can simply block them and then they are unable to even access PWCC auctions going forward. They receive no notice of the block it just happens.
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Old 06-26-2016, 04:15 PM
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Originally Posted by begsu1013 View Post
anything concrete on these other forces?
You're reading too much into my comment, Bob. "Market forces" are not inherently illegal or nefarious. I think the primary force at work is that there are simply a lot more deep-pocketed dudes entering the hobby willing to spend more on certain cards. I've spoken with some hobbyists/investors who believe in protecting their investments, but as long as they bid cleanly, do not collude, and pay when they win, I see nothing wrong with it. I have no evidence, and am highly doubtful of, an organized global conspiracy to drive the price of uncentered Pete Rose rookies. But then again, I'm not looking too hard for evidence, so who knows?
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Old 06-26-2016, 05:02 PM
begsu1013 begsu1013 is offline
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i get it and i wasnt being negative in asking for anything concrete. but understand how it comes off like that considering recent events and threads.

and great overall answer and synopsis as well.
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Old 06-26-2016, 05:38 PM
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I would suggest a more draconian approach to dealing with retractions. That is, when an eBay user retracts a bid, all of his open bids are canceled and he is blocked from bidding for 10 days.
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Old 06-26-2016, 05:38 PM
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All good, Bob. My point needed clarification. Definitely some passionate points of view from folks on the topic. The only thing of which I'm 100% certain is that I'll be focused on pre-war for the foreseeable future!
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  #32  
Old 06-26-2016, 05:57 PM
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I don't bid more then what I feel what the card is worth. After that I assume everyone else is a bafoon lol. After it reached its value point I don't even watch the card anymore ( unless it's do sharts and giggles). I really don't care what happens after that.
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Old 06-26-2016, 06:10 PM
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Like a lot of others, I use a snipe service and forget about it. I am aware of the shill bidding and also the bid retractions, but am unsure how they affect me.

I do know that I have been bidding through eBay since 1998 and have 1629 positives, mostly as a buyer. And I've never made even one bid retraction?

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  #34  
Old 06-26-2016, 11:25 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LuckyLarry View Post
Like a lot of others, I use a snipe service and forget about it. I am aware of the shill bidding and also the bid retractions, but am unsure how they affect me.

I do know that I have been bidding through eBay since 1998 and have 1629 positives, mostly as a buyer. And I've never made even one bid retraction?

Larry
++ Learn to enjoy being the underbidder. Shilling wasn't invented last month, it's been here for centuries, and it's found a nice little nest on e-bay, even worse at AH's.

Stop giving yourself a coronary; snipe a bid at what you think is fair and walk away. Be cautious at any AH's, there's a reason the auctions never end.

If you have time to take on the establishment, more power to you. I'd love to see someone take the manipulators down. But PWCC is the messenger, don't kill them.
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  #35  
Old 06-27-2016, 12:01 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 1952boyntoncollector View Post
one 'quick fix' can be if there is ever a bid retraction on an auction you 'won' you have the option of canceling with no recourse.... i know its not a total fix but i know i would drop out of any auction in which someone bid more than me, then 'retracted'...i would than drop out of that auction but right now i always honor paying on any items i 'won'...so if the rules were clear i coudl get out of a 'win' if there was a bid retraction that may prevent some abuse
This won't work, and will only encourage more shilling. The shiller will just have a friend or a fake account put up a bid on the auction, and then retract it. Then if the shiller inadvertently "wins" an auction, they will just say there is a retraction, and back out of the winning bid. However, that data point will still be in VCP and completed sales on ebay. If the shiller does not win the auction, they will just count on the winning bidder purchasing the card anyway even though there is a retraction in the bidding history.

Frankly, I think ebay has to change their software to allow sellers to block bidders who have retractions in their history. For example, I know some retractions may be legitimate like a bidding mistake. However, I would still say sellers should block bidders who have more than 1 retraction per month. The other thing I would say is that ebay should also give sellers the option to show the full bidder id in their auctions (and bidders who know which auctions will show their full id's). If ebay does provide this option, then PWCC should display the full bidder id's in their auctions (and other major consignors like Probstein123 should follow). Finally, I think some major auction houses, if you don't pay after winning an auction, they state that they will publish your name and out you as a nonpaying bidder (I think Clean Sweep has said they would do this). For any repeat non-paying bidders, PWCC should publish the name, city, and state of this person on its website. Hopefully, that would help in dissuading some of the shilling going on.

Last edited by glchen; 06-27-2016 at 12:14 AM.
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  #36  
Old 06-27-2016, 12:29 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rookiemonster View Post
I don't bid more then what I feel what the card is worth. After that I assume everyone else is a bafoon lol. After it reached its value point I don't even watch the card anymore ( unless it's do sharts and giggles). I really don't care what happens after that.
Do you consistently watch cards you're interested in or do you get a wild hair, like most collectors, and just go after what you might see in the moment?

If it's the latter then don't you think there's a chance that the increase in sales price over the last year might have an effect on what you think a card is worth?

If you see a card that has sold for $200 over the past 3 months, but 6 months ago it sold consistently for $50, do you think you'd think the card is worth $50? If you think it's worth even $5 more than that then the market price of the card over the last 3 months has effected what you think the card is worth; and thus they have won.
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  #37  
Old 06-28-2016, 11:03 PM
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Thanks to the original poster for raising these issues. We imagine many in the hobby harbor similar concerns and frustrations about the legitimacy of the bidding environment; as a business owner and collector, I certainly do. We appreciate everyone’s patience as we work to address these issues. For the past three years, we have partnered with eBay to develop new methods and tools for ensuring an honest bidding environment, with a particular focus around bid retractions. We await several final decisions from eBay, but PWCC will initiate a new post on this and other message boards announcing PWCC and eBay’s jointly-created plan to limit fraud on the eBay platform. I expect to make this post by the end of next week.

As always, please don’t hesitate to reach out if you have any concerns, suggestions, or questions.

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  #38  
Old 06-29-2016, 05:39 AM
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That's pretty exciting stuff.
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  #39  
Old 06-29-2016, 09:58 AM
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One thing I've noticed that certainly causes me to place small incremental bids is the eBay app. When I am on my phone and decide to bid, the small incremental bid is a single screen touch to repeat and I often find myself making several bids that would look like shill bids if the bid increment and frequency were the tests.

I think the focus has to be on unusual outcomes in eBay auctions that are spurred by bidders with low feedback and/or lots of bid retractions. I tend to be suspicious when an auction on a common card gets a flood of bids from those two types of bidders. I'll give you an example. I am currently watching a PSA 9 Evander Holyfield RC (item #351764801461) in a PWCC auction. Not picking on you, Brent, you just happen to have one going. One sold on June 11 for $241.50. Another sold on June 26 for $40.98. The VCP average reported price for the card over the last four years is $141.24 over about a dozen sales. PWCC's is at $62 and ends tomorrow. The bidding has been driven by a bidder with seven retractions in the last six months. That screams shill bidding to me, especially when a comparable card (a modern 9; really an interchangeable card) barely brought $40 three days ago.
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  #40  
Old 06-29-2016, 10:07 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheNightmanCometh View Post
Do you consistently watch cards you're interested in or do you get a wild hair, like most collectors, and just go after what you might see in the moment?

If it's the latter then don't you think there's a chance that the increase in sales price over the last year might have an effect on what you think a card is worth?

If you see a card that has sold for $200 over the past 3 months, but 6 months ago it sold consistently for $50, do you think you'd think the card is worth $50? If you think it's worth even $5 more than that then the market price of the card over the last 3 months has effected what you think the card is worth; and thus they have won.
I guess it really depends on the case . With the current market what it is . I would see a flip opportunity. But if a card I'm chasing for my collection is goes up . Then I have to say is it worth the whistle. If not , I move on .
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Old 06-29-2016, 10:11 AM
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Those are the kind of auctions which a few friends and I privately have lots of emails about. Maybe, If someone has more than a few (say 3) bid retractions in the last year they should be blocked, then taken on case by case basis to be let back to bidding. That would hinder the assault somewhat. It seems there is no good justification for the quantity of bidders with many, many bid retractions. And especially when they bid on a particular person/company auctions for a large percentage of their bids. Yuck and a lot of it from what I see. *And of course these comments are not meant to be aimed solely at Brent (Hey Brent) as they are across the board.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Exhibitman View Post
One thing I've noticed that certainly causes me to place small incremental bids is the eBay app. When I am on my phone and decide to bid, the small incremental bid is a single screen touch to repeat and I often find myself making several bids that would look like shill bids if the bid increment and frequency were the tests.

I think the focus has to be on unusual outcomes in eBay auctions that are spurred by bidders with low feedback and/or lots of bid retractions. I tend to be suspicious when an auction on a common card gets a flood of bids from those two types of bidders. I'll give you an example. I am currently watching a PSA 9 Evander Holyfield RC (item #351764801461) in a PWCC auction. Not picking on you, Brent, you just happen to have one going. One sold on June 11 for $241.50. Another sold on June 26 for $40.98. The VCP average reported price for the card over the last four years is $141.24 over about a dozen sales. PWCC's is at $62 and ends tomorrow. The bidding has been driven by a bidder with seven retractions in the last six months. That screams shill bidding to me, especially when a comparable card (a modern 9; really an interchangeable card) barely brought $40 three days ago.
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  #42  
Old 06-29-2016, 11:22 AM
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These cards that are selling at record prices suddenly, take a Jim Brown rookie that sells for 6.5K in a PSA 8 and then sells for 17.5K the same month... I just don't think that's schilling. How many people go into an auction willing to pay 7K and then "chase" another bidder up 10K? Just doesn't seem likely to me.

I consigned a card about a year ago that I remember well - it was a $250 card that sold for around that. But there was a bidder that bid around 35 times - I can't help but think he was trying to scare the competition away.

I have no idea what's going on - but couldn't there be a small group of "flippers/speculators" trying to manipulate this? I think there are multiple problems here - sure there is opportunity to schill in eBay auctions esp. with such small bid increments, someone might be willing to pay just a little more and chase a card up or maybe set their snipe with some extra $$ in it to be "safe", but I don't think that's why we see the record setting prices in my opinion.

Last edited by TanksAndSpartans; 06-29-2016 at 11:25 AM.
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  #43  
Old 06-29-2016, 12:38 PM
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I've been on ebay since 1999 and don't think I've ever had a bid retraction. There's no other reason to have multiple retractions other than to be schilling. Hopefully eBay will build functionality that would allow sellers to block bidders with x number of retractions which I think would put a nice dent into nefarious auctions.
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Old 06-29-2016, 03:31 PM
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Allow only three bids! Annoying and unnecessary to bid thirty times at $1.00 or $2.00. Actually pull out, even when very interested.
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Old 06-29-2016, 05:56 PM
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Please, nobody take this the wrong way....But I wonder, how many threads have we had pertaining PWCC and Probstein, and yet we are right where we started from many years ago?

Last edited by CMIZ5290; 06-29-2016 at 05:59 PM.
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Old 06-29-2016, 06:30 PM
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Why do people worry about other bidders? Put your bid in and accept the price, nobody put a gun to your head. If you don't want your bid shilled, snipe.

Surely everyone can put their own value on a card, if not... Get what you deserve?

I've bought/sold and retained hundreds of cards for my collection/resale. I've never regretted a purchase because I don't bid more than I value the card. Pretty simple.
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Old 06-29-2016, 09:42 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FirstYearCards View Post
Why do people worry about other bidders? Put your bid in and accept the price, nobody put a gun to your head. If you don't want your bid shilled, snipe.

Surely everyone can put their own value on a card, if not... Get what you deserve?

I've bought/sold and retained hundreds of cards for my collection/resale. I've never regretted a purchase because I don't bid more than I value the card. Pretty simple.
why do people worry about other bidders? because they impact the price you ultimately may have to pay to win the card.

does that mean there is a vast conspiracy of manipulation that is causing prices to skyrocket in a small segment of the card market? no.

is there likely some form of manipulation (e.g., bid retractions) that is having some artificial impact on raising prices? yes.

is there the possibility of making incremental positive changes (e.g., blocking bidders with high bid retractions) that would alleviate manipulation and have little, if any, downside to hobbyists? yes.

will this solve all the problems affecting price manipulation in the hobby? no.

does that mean hobbyists shouldn't care about implementing incremental positive changes? no.

would brent/pwcc be addressing the issue of bid retractions if he/they didn't feel it was negatively affecting the market? no.

is his/pwcc's view on this issue meaningful in the context of him/they having a better view of auction pricing dynamics than possibly anyone on this board? yes.
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