Reputation of the Individual Grader is the Key !!!! [GRADY and BAKER]

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Posted By: Tom L.

Let's face it, when you send a vintage card to SGC, the grader is Derek Grady 100% of the time.

When you send a vintage card to GAI, you know that Mike Baker (formerly of PSA) is going to be the grader. Which is why they have scooped so much vintage business away from PSA (Sorry, I meant to call the new company Global and not 'GAY'. My bust. But come on guys, didn't you think of the acronym's pronunciation ahead of time?)

Anyway, Global now has a top grader and PSA doesn't. So PSA's response has been to tighten up on its grades to show all of the doubters that they still have high standards. But unless they can hire back Baker or land Grady, I think that PSA will eventually bleed to death, at least in the vintage card market. And it sure seems like BGS is taking a lot of PSA's modern card business as well. Seen the Collector Universe stock lately?

Anyway, the coin industry is completely aware of who the grader was for every slabbed coin on the market (they equate companies with particular graders), and it's been that way for years. The serious coin collectors can name all of the main graders at the primary grading companies. Because of the insurmountable grading reliability and other issues which plague our hobby (which I discussed at length before), each card company's vintage grader is absolutely key.

This new Grade Tech company may have a lot of bells and whistles (but then again, so did USA, and so did SCD, and so did . . .) but in the long run individual grader reputation will be the main determinant in which companies are successful - or at least viable. Having a card background is a plus, obviously, for the Grade Tech guys, but a proven track record over time is all that will eventually matter. And over-grading a counterfeit is not a good beginning.

Just my opinion,
Tom

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Posted By: Todd (nolemmings)

I once advocated on the old CU board, say 2 years ago, that each slabbed card should identify the grader, at least by a number, and should identify the date of the grade(at least by month). No response, even though Joe Orlando was, at least at that time, a frequent contributor. I believe collectors would find this information useful, and would more confidently rely on it when making decisions. Maybe some day.
Regards.................todd

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Posted By: Bill Cornell

I already chimed in on Grade Tech and wished I hadn't, but... do Derek Grady and Mike Baker ever go on vacation? And do they ever do it in the same week?

I'll personally contend until I see differently that PSA is outsourcing its grading to somewhere far, far away, hence their horrible turnaround times and bizarre results ("I think it's trimmed... wait, colored... hey, I'm going on break - let the new guy grade it"). Honestly, if there are only 2 qualified graders at large, this hobby isn't quite as mature as it's made out to be.

You heard it here first: Grady and/or Baker retires (or go under the proverbial bus) and raw cards will be making a comeback....

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Posted By: David Vargha

I don't see where GAI is making any great coup on the grading of "vintage cards". Whether you take the stance that "vintage" is pre-1973, pre-WWII, or whatever, Global is swamped by the market presence of PSA. The vast majority of grade vintage cards are in PSA holders and SGC has quite a niche, especially in certain pre-war issues that PSA dragged their feet on grading. The PSA Set Registry has strengthened their hold in the marketplace and crossovers tend to go to PSA for the most part. I don't really see either PSA or SGC losing significant crossover traffic to GAI.

Because of the great timespan between PSA's foray into the marketplace and GAI's, it is unlikely that they will ever be much of a challenger. But hey, this is the USA, so more power to 'em.

As to the assertion that raw cards will make a comeback. While certain holdovers refuse to grade their cards (the greatest percentage are pre-war collectors), the vast majority of high grade cards will eventually work their way into holders. Collectors seek what they perceive to be a knowledgeable "expert" to protect them against the unscrupulous dealers that sell, overgraded, altered and counterfeit cards. While "collector grade" cards and modern commons may never find their way into encapsulation, the risks associated with high dollar purchases cause most collectors to eschew ungraded card purchases except at a deep discount. But to cling to the belief that this "newfangled" grading thing is just a passing phase is analagous to the people who believed that the horseless carriage was just an interesting distraction on the landscape.

DavidVargha@hotmail.com

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Posted By: Scott M

Two qualified graders in the industry???? This is exactly why you should grade cards for yourself. If each company only has one good grader, then there is a certain percentage of their cards that get graded by others - which means variation in the process - and a lower quality product being produced by the grading company.

collect nice vg - its better than collecting by numbers.

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Posted By: petecld

With all due respect to Derek and Mike - I highly doubt they are the only two people capable of grading cards in this hobby. They are the 2 currently working professionals known for their grading ability but that isn't to say others don't have the same talent.

Time will tell as new people are hired by these companies or as new companies start up.

Who knows, if Grade-Tech has a good grader, the hobby will recognize it and we will be adding a third name to the list.

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Posted By: Tom Lawrie

1. As for number of qualified graders, there are certainly a number of potential people out there who could be expert graders. But instead most potentially qualified people either buy and sell for big auction names (or are the big auction names), or are major dealers, or are rabid collectors (most just figuratively rabid). Additionally, assuming low turnover in the number 2 and 3 graders at these companies, there are bound to be others who become solid at grading vintage cards over time. But just about everyone who works at Mastro (e.g. Kevin Struss etc.) or at the other large vintage businesses such as SportsCards Plus, could step into one of these grading companies and immediately be a top vintage grader. The point is that whoever grades vintage cards needs to have a number of years of experience scrutinizing them (for consignment, resale, collecting, whatever). Most card dealers don't have that experience as most haven't been exposed to the vintage market. And I would guess that many vintage collectors haven't been exposed to enough counterfeits and alterations to really be good at it right away, with the exception of some truly experienced collectors like Pete Calderon, Bob Marquette, John Wojak, Dan McKee, etc.

2. As for Global, it is the very first company in quite a while to achieve immediate legitimacy in the industry (at least as far as the major dealers and/or auction houses go.) There have been some pretty substantial changes on the part of big players in switching in part or in whole to Global. Take a look at SportsCards Plus and Wayne Varner's Shoebox Cards for example. Both now sell a substantial number of Globally-slabbed vintage cards, whereas before they seemed to be exclusively PSA. Apparently that is pretty prevalent among many of the vintage dealers. It may have to do with factors such as pricing and turnaround time, but I'm sure Mike Baker's presence at Global (or absence from PSA) had something to do with it. I would have to guess that PSA is losing some market share to Global and BGC; their stock price is certainly depressed.

Just my opinion,
Tom

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Posted By: Iamlowc

PSA has made their reputation, it is evident on Ebay. Dollar for dollar, card for card PSA cards sell for more than there counterparts more often than not. That is the industry talking.

True that PSA has lost some key graders but I cannot believe that there are only two reliable graders in the entire industry. Case in point, when I by a card from BMW, they tell me what grade that card should get and the cards have graded 90% of the time exactly the way they told me. The other 10% graded higher. Samething when dealing with Levi/707. What I am trying to say is that private dealers are offering raw cards that they believe will grade NRMNT - Mint and the cards grade NRMT-Mint by PSA, then PSA must be doing something right.

I can understand people not liking some of PSA downfalls, like service turnaround but I chalk that up to heavy business from tons of submissions not because they want to be slow or don't have adequate graders, that's absurd.

This is just my opinion.

Low C

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Posted By: John(z28jd)

With so many companies grading and the obvious fact that they arent making any more vintage cards(and with cards lost to attrition and so many really low grade cards that theres no reason to grade) and people like me who dont get cards graded does anyone think that soon the vintage grading market is going to dry up?
You have to think ahead,maybe a couple years or so but whats gonna be left to grade? Sure they will get a big raw collection once in awhile,but i dont see this as a good long term market to start a company in.

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Posted By: Tom L.

First, PSA may bring stronger prices for now overall, but give it time. I'm not saying the graders are the only influence on a company's bottom line, but you have to be realistic. Of the vast majority of PSA cards on the market, most were graded while Mike Baker was at the PSA. I don't know how many vintage graders PSA had or has, but he certainly ran the show for quite a while and dealers and auction houses trusted him to ensure some pretty good quality control. PSA was/is probably too big to have only a single vintage grader (which may account for some of the important gaffs that we saw, like the counterfeit Ruth rookie getting slabbed), but he has a great hobby reputation. And he's at Global now. Do you think it is just coincidence that some of the large, major vintage dealers have switched in part or completely to Global?

As for the vintage cards drying up, I don't see it. First, most vintage cards haven't been slabbed. I try to buy primarily SGC, PSA, or GAI graded cards when I purchase on-line because it adds another filter in there if you don't know the dealer, but even so, my collection is probably still 90% raw. And I would bet that most vintage collectors still have a majority (or all) of their collections unslabbed. Plus, dealers and collector-dealers are endlessly resubmitting cards for better grades. I don't see the vintage market drying up for a long time, if ever.

That said, I don't know how much importance these grading companies place on the vintage market as compared to grading newer issues. But I would think that it would not be more than 10-25% of their total sales.

Again, just my opinion,
Tom

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Posted By: David

I understand that identification and authentication is a specialty and intertwined with grading (which may be the crux of the posts), but what's so hard about grading itself? If grading has become so techincal and difficult that only two people in world can do it, heaven help us.

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Posted By: David

I also wonder if the occasional authentication problems have happened when the experts are away. Perhaps out of pure chance, whats-his-name was late coming back for lunch when the PSA newbie was given a stack of blue Fro Joys.

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Posted By: Tom L.

I think that authentication and grading are intertwined, as the grader has to answer:

1. Is it real?
2. If so, has it been altered?
3. If not, what is the grade?

The grading itself is not very reliable, as evidenced by the different grades a single card has received on submission to the same or different companies. It may only be a half grade difference, but even that kind of an error means that there are fundamental problems with the grading (I discussed that in another thread). But often you see full grade differences, or a card might be trimmed one day, and a 7 the next.

But on vintage material, the grading isn't the hardest part - the authentication and ensuring that a card hasn't been altered is where some level of skill comes in. (Though I would argue that being consistent all the time is too tough for most graders. I mean, most people can figure out the broad categories of "nice, OK, not nice, and trashed." But when they try to divide it up farther - say difference between NM+ and NM-MT, or between EX and EX+, I think they are rarely consistent for a number of different reasons.)

Plus, look at some of the mail catalogues. You might have two PSA 7 1941 Play Ball Ted Williams cards, and one might be $2000, and the other might be $2250. If one is better than the other, how can they both be the same grade under the current 'precise' systems? The answer is that one is mis-graded. (Maybe if they had broader categories, I could live with the price differences.)

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Posted By: David

Tom, your post sounds reasonable to me. It seems that there is an inherent degree of inaccuracy in grading, in part because grading is partially subjective (as it should be). This would suggest that one of the major problems with the graded card hobby is not the graders themselves, but the unrealistic expectations and manipulations of many collectors and sellers, including the '10 hunters' and 'resubmitters.'

I've long thought that there is a legitimate and useful place for graded cards. Having an expert give an opinion on a card, saying that he or she thinks it's authentic and unaltered and even give a grade is useful, especially for rare cards or for online auctions. I've never begrudged collectors for going the graded card route and understand why the Leon would have his cards checked out (though we know that part of the motivation is to show of his new cards to Derek). Personally, if I were to buy a T206 Magie error online from a guy 2000 miles away, I would prefer it was graded by PSA or SGC. I'd eventually crack it open and check for myself, but the fact that it was inspected by someone of some experience would make me feel safer when considering whether or not to bid.

The problem is the many collectors' and dealers' silly obsession with graded cards, treating the label on a piece of lucite as if it was the word from God (or trying to convince the potential buyer that it’s the word of God)— resulting in all the foolishness like BCCG, SGM, AAA, population count, SCDAuthentic Grade of ‘11’ and Ken Golden's 'Gem Mint Blue Chip Special'