High Bidders Who Overbid on Ebay?

[frankbmd]

I have no problem with max bidding, whether an early max bid or or a single snipe bid, but............

athough I may an idea of my max bid in an auction, but that is also subject to change and frequently does. I approach an auction in terms of a "good buy", rather than simply how much I am willing to pay under any circumstances. Losing doesn't bother me as I try to avoid the "gottahaveit" approach to bidding. (Losing at the casino is a negative proposition whereas losing an auction is a neutral position.)

Bidding patterns, with a limited number of bidders in the game, admittedly can be suggestive of shilling. They can also be quite transparent (ie the 50, 60, 70, 80, etc bidder). Or they can be entirely random and unpredictable. Knowing whether an item of interest is in fact a potential good buy cannot be determined until the waning moments of an auction.

Looking at the bidding pattern I find useful. Obviously a high snipe is going to win every time, but the risk of two competing high snipes has already been mentioned. Absent the snipe bid(s) though, if I can predict what another active bidder's final bid will be, I feel that I have an edge.

It becomes sort of a game. Beating a $70 snipe with a bid of $70.02 gives me visions of the other guy screaming at his laptop and a .

Consistent with this "gaming" approach to auction bidding, if I do enter multiple bids on an item for any reason (not shilling), I try to avoid a predictable pattern in my bidding.

"There are not only many reasons to skin a cat, but also many methods to skin it as well. Be well, my friend, bid well and may the best man win," attributed to the most interesting bidder in the World.

[Runscott]

Originally Posted by frankbmd

It becomes sort of a game. Beating a $70 snipe with a bid of $70.02 gives me visions of the other guy screaming at his laptop and a .

Frank. Please use your powers for good, not evil.

[Exhibitman]

I snipe things I want to go after, so I do not concern myself with other bidders' making max bids. Although I cannot prove it objectively, I think I pay less for auctions when I use a sniper than when I post a max bid and let people chip away at it. I believe one of the metrics Ebay uses to present items in its 'plugs' in closed listings and the like is bid activity, and if so, the more bids something draws, the more likely it is to be highlighted by Ebay as a 'popular' item.

I've gotten within a nickel of someone's max bid with a snipe. Definitely fun, but more from knowing I called the top rather than from a screw-the-opposition perspective. I mean, he doesn't know he was one increment from winning--for all he knows, my max bid was twice his.

[darwinbulldog]

Frank,

I don't know if it has any impact on how much I bid, given that I have seen the auction in either case, but I may be more likely to find it in the first place, as I occasionally sort by # of bids to find the good stuff. Also, I'd love to read your son's dissertation. I've been spending a lot of time on game theory with my students this semester.

[frankbmd]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

I snipe things I want to go after, so I do not concern myself with other bidders' making max bids. Although I cannot prove it objectively, I think I pay less for auctions when I use a sniper than when I post a max bid and let people chip away at it. I believe one of the metrics Ebay uses to present items in its 'plugs' in closed listings and the like is bid activity, and if so, the more bids something draws, the more likely it is to be highlighted by Ebay as a 'popular' item.

I've gotten within a nickel of someone's max bid with a snipe. Definitely fun, but more from knowing I called the top rather than from a screw-the-opposition perspective.

I agree with you completely. We've all lost auctions by a nickel (and been "screwed" so to speak). It's just nicer (fun) to win by nickel (and be the "screwer"). My point is that it may be possible by analyzing bidding patterns to tip the screwer/screwed balance in one's favor without betting the farm to assure victory. I fully realize the underbidder may well be a friend and not necessarily from North Korea

Shaking hands after an auction is preferable to firing a missile.

[glchen]

This recently happened to me where I lost an auction by 9 cents because my snipe was set one second after the winner's snipe. Also note one bidder tried the same thing Frank said in OP, and there were plenty more bids by him at the beginning also. Was he shilling (e.g., safety bid) or trying for intimidation, I don't know. (His % bids w/ that seller was 14% with no bid retractions last 6 months.)

[Jewish-collector]

It's not that difficult. Just bid higher than everyone else.

We had a detailed discussion on this board about a year or so ago about sniping. Half the comments were that you don't save any money. The other half of the comments said you do save money. I tend to agree with the ones who said you don't save any money.

The reason to snipe is really

1) you don't show your hand early, so other bidders will tend to think no one really wants the card
2) you don't need to worry about being at the computer to bid
3) you can change your mind & cancel or increase your bid up to some amount of minutes (maybe 5 ?) before the auction closes.

[tschock]

Originally Posted by Jewish-collector

3) you can change your mind & cancel or increase your bid up to some amount of minutes (maybe 5 ?) before the auction closes.

There is at least one (Auction Defender, not free) that allows you to pull your snipe at anytime before the snipe fires. There is no time limit.

It also allows you to set up conditional sniping, which is really good for those non-"one-of-a-kind" type items. Basically, if I don't win item A, bid $X on item B. Or if I DO win item A, bid $X on item B, etc.

I'm sure there are others.