Investment Q...

[mintacular]

Ok, for investment purposes let's say you had the choice of say a Demmitt St. Louis in rough shape we'll say worth 2K today or a much more common but popular HOFer T206 Cobb vg/vgex that also sells for that same amount.

If you were an investing man, which card would like be a better buy if resold in 5, 10, 20 yrs+ from now? (note: for the purpose of my exercise please except my 2k estimates for demmitt/cobb)

Not trying to compare these two per se but generally want to know if you think mainstream HOFers vs. a rarity card like Demmitt Stl. would be a better investment

[calvindog]

Lol

[Tcards-Please]

Originally Posted by calvindog

Lol

+1

[Peter_Spaeth]

--

[hangman62]

I think the rarity card would be a better choice, based on the demand for that card would be higher

[rdixon1208]

While it's only a guess, I would think the mainstream HOFer would be a better choice than the rarer card.

On another note, next time we have a thread asking why we have so many members yet so few that actually contribute to the discussion, someone should reference this thread. Responding to a thought out thread/question with "lol" is pretty insulting. Others piling on is even worse.

[Tcards-Please]

Robert,

What is amusing, is that you have someone on the BST wanting to trade a T206 Demmitt for a Ty Cobb.

r/
Frank

Originally Posted by rdixon1208

While it's only a guess, I would think the mainstream HOFer would be a better choice than the rarer card.

On another note, next time we have a thread asking why we have so many members yet so few that actually contribute to the discussion, someone should reference this thread. Responding to a thought out thread/question with "lol" is pretty insulting. Others piling on is even worse.

[calvindog]

Sorry, but the original question posed made me laugh. Hence the LOL.

Next time I'll complain about an ebay seller who charged me .39 too much in shipping. Is that better?

[Peter_Spaeth]

If two 100 year old cards are priced comparably today, who here could possibly offer a meaningful opinion as to their relative worth in 5-10-20 years?

[mintacular]

I don't understand the LOL, perhaps I understated the value of the Demmitt and overvalued the value of the Cobb both by a few hundred but nothing to justify a LOL, LOL. In terms of predicting value, if I had been following T206 values the LAST 20 years, I think I could say with certainty if card "x" continues go up exponentially but card "y" not so much....Whether I would share that info is a different matter altogether

[Gradedcardman]

HOF Cobb

[FrankWakefield]

I here can offer a meaningful opinion...

The Cobb will be appreciate more, relative to the appreciation in price of the Demmitt.


Cobb is a top tier HOFer. Demand for cards contemporary with when he played increases, at an increasing rate. The Demmitt card is only sought by those who are attempting some level of completion with T206s (520 or more). It seems to me that while some folks attempt that, or pace themselves in that direction; there isn't a growing number of serious T206 set collectors. Folks chase HOFers, a team, portraits, all of one back...

Mr. Lipset's vol 3 of The Encyclopedia of Baseball Cards has mention of values of T cards in a Price Guide on page 110. These prices are circa 1986.

Wagner 22,000
Plank 4,500
Magie 2,000
O'Hara 500
Demmitt 500
Elberfeld Wash 225
HOFer 25
Cobb red 200
Cobb green 300
Johnson 100

Somewhere I have a list, based on price lists and sales lists for the white border tobacco cards; that show prices from the 50's to the 90's. Green Cobbs have overtaken Demmitt's in value.

Now if almost no new collectors enter the hobby, and we die off, then we may well get back to Demmitt's being worth more. I think there are fewer of them, than the green Cobb's, but it isn't simple supply and demand. Folks are after Cobb even though they might not know much about him. There's lots of demand for his cards. Few folks, even among collectors, know about the college boy from Illinois who hit .301 under Hughie Jennings with the Baltimore Orioles in his first season of professional baseball. Or that out there in that Orioles outfielder was another guy who'd be depicted in those great white border tobacco cards... Bill O'Hara. Now who here knew Demmitt and O'Hara were team-mates?

Demmitt's card is less plentiful than the green Cobb. But the green Cobb has MUCH more demand, it'll sell for more.

[glchen]

I think I agree that a top tier HOFer in higher condition will appreciate more than a short print like Demmitt. There will be more demand for the Cobb in higher condition. It's an interesting question because Demmitt is part of the Big Six (? or 7, 8, etc) of the T206, so there is still some cache to the card as opposed to a Nodgrass card. I would wonder which would appreciate more, a Doyle Nat'l in poor condition or a Cobb in higher condition (say 7/8) but equivalent value. Here the Doyle is in even scarcer short print and is in the Big 4. I think in this case the Doyle would probably be better.

[fkw]

Neither card is "Rare", but the Cobb (red) is actually probably the most common prewar card in existence, with a few thousand out there floating around and many sold every single day.

Values on T206 cards in low to mid grade will stay the same roughly, they sell now (raw) for basically what they have sold for over the last 20 years.

If you want to buy a lower/mid grade card and flip for profit a few years from now, buy a rare "type" card, not a T206.
And obviously the price you initially pay is going to make a difference in how much profit you may make when you flip it. If you pay top $$ or overpay, you may not make a penny.

[ls7plus]

Very interesting and persuasive analysis by both Franks. Price appreciation, in my humble opinion and after through study, is generally a factor of (1) scarity or rarity; (2) significance; and (3) condition. I would agree that the answer will really depend upon whether the population of Cobb collectors grows faster than that of those collecting T206 relative rarities such as Demmitt. Interestingly, even Hager's 1995 Sixsport Certified Price Guide (yeah, yeah, I know, its Hager, but he had the right idea with regard to what was really going to become valuable even in times prior to that, when the hobby was running amok with modern rookie card fever!) would seem to indicate that Demmitt is losing that race, after an early lead. At least for now.

I generally put a higher value on upper-tier hall-of-famers such as Cobb, but I like mine quite a bit rarer, and don't have much interest in an example that, as Frank Ward suggests, exists in the thousands.

Nice pic, Peter.

Very thought provoking.

Larry