Who's Buying At the National

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Posted By: peter chao

The owner of the best vintage card store in the Bay Area will be only buying and not selling at the National. He predicts that 80% of the attendees at the National will be dealers that have either a store or online presence. Is that estimate too high or is it "in the ballpark?"

Also, is this healthy? It seems to me that it is unhealthy because that means there is a shortage of collectors. Without new collectors the hobby will slowly die.

Peter C.

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Posted By: Bob

Peter- Your friend is being absurd. There are tons of collectors who are there to buy for their collections. Don't listen to him. The number of collectors of pre-war material, as reflected by this Board, has grown leaps and bounds in the past few years.
tbob

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Posted By: JimCrandell

Peter,

Your friend has a good point. Serious collectors have a hard time finding cards they need at the national. Heck I have over 100 high-grade sets I am working on and I found almost nothing I needed last year.

Major dealers are there primarily to buy--not to sell. Good stuff is reserved for auctions, ebay or special customers.

If you are hoping to see something new and different better get there on dealer set-up day on Tuesday morning as dealers will have grabbed up any good stuff by Tuesday evning when its open to the general public.

Jim

If you are looking for modern cards or off-condition cards you might have some luck.

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Posted By: Jeff Lichtman

Jim, you would be a good person to ask this to due to your expansive collection: don't you agree that you'd have a better chance finding something you need on any given ebay day or in a Mastro or Mile High auction rather than a day at the National? It's my (perhaps mistaken) understanding that finding and buying cards you need is not necessarily the main reason one attends the National.

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Posted By: Richard

peter - who are you referring to?

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Posted By: Bob

Jim-I can name 50 collectors off the top of my head who are not dealers who plan to attend and hopefully buy cards. Most of them are people you probably don't know nor have ever heard of, but that's not surprising, they are members of the backbone of the hobby who collect for collecting sake and aren't interested in trying to find PSA 8s and 9s in prewar cards because of their inflated cost and because a nice looking card with great eye appeal is good enough.
I found plenty of pre-war cards in Chicago, many were caramel cards that were graded 30, 40, 50 and 60. Maybe you consider that "off-condition" but when you check SGC's pop reports they are right there near the top.
tbob

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Posted By: JimCrandell

Jeff,

You are absolutely right. If you are going to the National in hope that you are going to find those hard to locate cards in your favorite sets, you are going to be sorely disappointed.

Jim

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Posted By: Bob

The show doesn't open to the public until Wednesday night. If you are there looking for cards on Tuesday you will be S.O.L.

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Posted By: JimCrandell

Bob,

Whoops--I meant you need to be there Wednesday AM for dealer set-up not Tuesday.

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Posted By: leon

I have been to around the last 7 or so Nationals....each year I have found a few plums for my collection and a few things for resale. It's an excellent place to find stuff imo.....and as importantly it's a great time to get together with fellow collectors and get to know one another better....

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Posted By: Richard Masson

There is always something interesting to be found at a show this large. You just need a more expansive list of what is an opportunity. Even without buying, the show represents a chance to see cards I've not seen before.

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Posted By: Jeff Lichtman

Richard and Leon: but do you think that cards that show up at the National are not otherwise found at the various online auctions?

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Posted By: scott brockelman

You will see MANY,MANY cards not available on ebay or elsewhere. Myself, Leon and Richard will be there, selling and buying quality hard to find cards.



Scott

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Posted By: leon

Actually, for me, and as luck would have it a few times, the answer is "I would not have found it on ebay or at an auction house." Last year it was the black and white Zeenut (thought to be unique amongst PCL experts) and a few years ago (maybe 3-4) it was Tom B. who eventually found me a, to date, uniquely known e94 overprint. I also acquired the D303 Chase (not unique but scarce and beautiful), the T217 sgc80 Daley (probably tied with highest graded), and the unknown caramel issue of Moose McCormick that was shown recently.....None of those items are seen too often, if ever. And I am sure there are several more I am not remembering........so in answer to your question, No, I don't really think I could find everything I have found at the National, elsewhere..... regards

edited grammar

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Posted By: Matt E.

Doesn't everything get recycled / flipped eventually?
T-bob makes it sound so dismal for those arriving Wednesday. For the average collector I am sure there will be many items to fill our want lists etc...

Granted many cards will be snapped up by collectors and placed into private collections not to be seen for some time. On the flip side many cards will be purchased and immediately place for resale at another table.

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Posted By: Bob

Matt- I think you misunderstood my post. Contrary to sounding dismal about arriving on Wednesday, that's when the first day is and I am VERY hopeful. Jim said you needed to be there Tuesday and I tongue in cheek said the show wouldn't be open yet. No, I definitely think Wednesday is THE night to be there although Saturday night and Sunday some dealers might start being more susceptible to dropping prices rather than taking home cards they would like to sell.
Two years ago we stumbled on a slew of Zeenuts from a seller who wasn't selling on ebay. I also bought some nice cards from Wayne Varner who wasn't in to ebay as much as he is now and bought some Fatimas from a guy who never used ebay. Also, I bought some nice cards from Gary N. and John B. that hadn't previously been on ebay. Finally, I talked to a dealer who rarely used ebay and I bought a couple of tough Sporting Life cards from him which he had left at home but which he sent me when he returned.
I agree with leon, some dealers still don't use ebay that much and there will be some treasures tucked away just waiting to be found.
Mainly though I go for the good comeraderie with 54ers, not to fill all my want lists and yet there are always cards to buy.
tbob

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Posted By: Alan

I think the focus of the National has changed somewhat. Years ago, it used to be that there were lots of neat, interesting finds at the National. I think nowadays, although you can still find "some" good stuff, "much" of the desirable stuff is in the auction houses or ebay.

As you can tell from the number of RSVPs for the Thurs dinner, there are a bunch of collectors (including me) that really enjoy the social aspects of the National.

Alan

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Posted By: Richard Masson

Smaller dealers bring their best stuff (why give money away to Mastro, REA, Goodwin, etc, when the sellers are all here). I have a feeling the will be a lot more non sports and hockey.

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Posted By: boxingcardman

Abso-f'ing-lutely. In the last three Nationals I've picked up a 1930s Thorpe Exhibit, a Pebble Beach O'Doul, a 1926 Exhibit Bill Terry, multiple ghost and error T cards, and a number of very tough boxing cards. The only show where I went home without a "wow" card was Chicago--and it wasn't because I didn't find it, I just cheaped out and didn't buy it.

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Posted By: peter chao

The dealers know that it takes quite a bit of time to sell on E-bay. You need to give an attractive setting and description for the card and you need to answer e-mail regarding the card and you need to package and mail the card. All of this is done for each and every card or lot.

Whereas at the National if you have a few good customers you can sell 15 or more cards in half an hour, especially if you have the right stuff. Furthermore, since there are fewer local shows now days, it puts pressure on sellers to sell as much as they can during the National. Expect very attractive prices.

Peter C.

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Posted By: Bob

I think one thing that is overlooked is the walk-in cards which are scooped up by dealers and flipped by them during the show. This DOES happen and these cards have never been on ebay before. Plus, don't forget that there will be some dealers there who just don';t list on ebay for one reason or another.
Cards are there, you just have to look a little harder than you used to during the day.

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Posted By: JimCrandell

Maybe its looking for cards to fit into my graded sets versus buying pre-war ungraded but I walked the floor five full times last year in the three days I was there seeing every table at least five times. The only cards I found that I needed were on dealer set-up day before it was open to the public. All I heard from collector after collector and dealer after dealer was that there was nothing to buy. Lots of dealers only brought a small amount of their inventory as they were primarily there to buy.

I did the night parties and spoke at the PSA luncheon so I am glad I went but just couldn't find much to buy.

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Posted By: Mark M

Peter, what is the "best vintage card store in the Bay Area"?

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Posted By: peter chao

Mark,

I'll name the store, but I will not name the source. However, the source is credible because his father was a dealer and he's been in the business side of cards his entire life. When he goes to these shows, he recognizes most of the people buying and selling. That's why I take his opinion seriously.

Peter C.

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Posted By: bruce dorskind

Peter

The hobby is far from dead. Prices continue to rise at
a rate far exceeding Wall Street or the CPI.

Demand for the very best items soars.

The reason that so few extraordinary items are sold at
the National is that very few of the "major buyers" who
spend hundreds of thousands of dollars or more a year
on baseball cards feel comfortable walking the floor
of a convention.

The reason that 80%+ of these items are found in REA and
Mastro Auctions is that the collector owners recognize
that auction prices almost always exceed private sale
items.

Most of the National Dealers do not have the financial
bandwidth to acquire $5000 items and keep them in stock.
Accordingly most, but certainly not all of the dealers,
take items on a consignment basis.

This is much the same situation that one finds in the
art world, with most stamp and coin dealers and others.

Cash is a rare commodity....

There will be a great deal of selling at the National but
the top 2% of the items will primarily change hands through
REA, Mastro, David Hunt etc

Bruce Dorskind
America's Toughest Want List

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Posted By: Mark M

That's fine, Peter. I am just curious if I'm unaware of a big vintage card store in my backyard, not about the owner's take on the hobby. I think Richard was asking the same.

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Posted By: Bruce Babcock

I found tons of stuff I needed last year at the Anaheim National. I also found many items I had never seen before. I bought some of both. However, the ratio of pre-war dealers/total dealers contiinues to gets smaller.

At a convention you can see the cards. You can handle the cards. No scans or descriptions needed. You can negotiate directly with the dealer. Serendipity led me to some purchases that would have never happened on ebay. I found the National a great place to buy but even if I had purchased nothing, I would have had a great time. I'm bummed that I don't have the time to go this year but I plan on being in Chicago.

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Posted By: joe

I have to be honest, I was at the last Cleveland National and was disappointed. All I did was submit some cards to SGC for grading. I'm a little older and I think I was spoiled with shows from the 70's and 80's. Especially in the Detroit area, there was better stuff at those shows in the past.


Joe

Ty Cobb, Spikes flying!

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Posted By: peter chao

Joe,

Is this National in Cleveland better for vintage than the last National in Cleveland? Did people run into a lot of dealers buying?

Peter C.

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Posted By: Mark L

I've been to six Nationals and this one is the best for vintage material. I picked up a bunch of E's, some that I didn't see on Ebay. There were a lot of good dealers who brought cards from teh hot sets.

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Posted By: Mike

I was at the National on Thursday, and after going to the last five Nationals, this National had the greatest selection that I can remember. Of course a lot of the prices where astromonical for my t206's, but was able to get some very good deals.
Have fun at the National!!
Mike Gray