Shillers, Shenanigans & Shibboleths - The Elusive Underbidder

[frankbmd]

So you have a card buried deeply in your collection. You come across it for the first time in ten years. You ask yourself why you bought this card in the first place. Not coming up with an answer, you decide to sell it, but you have no idea what its current market value is.

Wisely you review recent auction data to see what you might ask for the card. You find a recent auction with a price that surprises you on the "high" side. You surmise that if some one paid that much for the card, there must be an underbidder out there that would happily pay almost that much. If that underbidder sees your listing, then both you and he would consummate a successful deal, a true win-win.

So you set your price below the recent auction sale in hopes that the underbidder appears as your buyer. Days pass with nary a whisper regarding your listing. You may even be maligned by some for your "museum" pricing. But is this fair. You have done your homework. Somewhere out there someone out there bought the same card for more and another also wanted it, yet your sought after underbidder remains elusive.

What if any conclusions can draw from this scenario?

Has it happened to you and what did you conclude?

Was the elusive underbidder a shill bid?

What others shenanigans might result in this outcome?

There must be a card collecting shibboleth to explain this.

What's yours?

[Fred]

I figure if you're focusing on ebay bidders (under bidders) then at least you have a single audience of sorts. The same bidders should be around for all other ebay auctions for a specific item.

You may have to stick with the same auction format (same auction house, for example) in order to have the under bidder of a specific item show interest in your item. In other words you may have to wait for the auction houses next offering and by that time the under bidder of the specific item may have found what they're looking by that time.

If the specific item you're referring to was sold in a large AH format then the winner and under bidder may have paid a bit more than on ebay or a smaller auction house format.

If the specific item was bought from a major AH then expecting the same realized price on ebay may not be in the cards.

I'd love to be able to sell some of my stuff for the prices major AHs get. For example, the last 16 Zeenut Claxton that sold was way off the charts. Was that an aberration or is that the new going rate for that card. Was it just two bidders hammering each other or were there a few bidders.

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by frankbmd

Wisely you review recent auction data to see what you might ask for the card. You find a recent auction with a price that surprises you on the "high" side. You surmise that if some one paid that much for the card, there must be an underbidder out there that would happily pay almost that much. If that underbidder sees your listing, then both you and he would consummate a successful deal, a true win-win.

So you set your price below the recent auction sale in hopes that the underbidder appears as your buyer. Days pass with nary a whisper regarding your listing. You may even be maligned by some for your "museum" pricing. But is this fair. You have done your homework. Somewhere out there someone out there bought the same card for more and another also wanted it, yet your sought underbidder remains elusive.

Hello Frank,
This is the smoke and mirrors effect I see time after time in the hobby that sometimes defies a conclusive or rational explanation. It would be easy to assume the high price point was the result of nefarious bidding however I think sometimes, it is as innocent as a collector, or two (because it takes two to tango), getting caught up in the moment.

I do consult recent sales before I decide to sell something and it now requires effort and reasoning to be able to interpret the data provided because so many factors can influence the final price. Maybe it was a very high end example and someone thought they could get a grade bump. Maybe the card had exceptional centering as we know the hobby loves centered card. Maybe this was the first time in a couple years this card was sold and sadly maybe it just was someone tinkering with the sale's process.

Just my thoughts...

Chase

[AGuinness]

Originally Posted by frankbmd

So you have a card buried deeply in your collection. You come across it for the first time in ten years. You ask yourself why you bought this card in the first place. Not coming up with an answer, you decide to sell it, but you have no idea what its current market value is.

Wisely you review recent auction data to see what you might ask for the card. You find a recent auction with a price that surprises you on the "high" side. You surmise that if some one paid that much for the card, there must be an underbidder out there that would happily pay almost that much. If that underbidder sees your listing, then both you and he would consummate a successful deal, a true win-win.

So you set your price below the recent auction sale in hopes that the underbidder appears as your buyer. Days pass with nary a whisper regarding your listing. You may even be maligned by some for your "museum" pricing. But is this fair. You have done your homework. Somewhere out there someone out there bought the same card for more and another also wanted it, yet your sought underbidder remains elusive.

What if any conclusions can draw from this scenario?

Has it happened to you and what did you conclude?

Was the elusive underbidder a shill bid?

What others shenanigans might result in this outcome?

There must be a card collecting shibboleth to explain this.

What's yours?

Shilling is certainly an option, although I think there are way too many variables based on a single underbidder for instance:

Did they find another copy of the card in the mean time?

Did their collecting focus shift or did they use the money for that card on a different collecting need?

Did their car break down and need fixing?

Did they get mugged?

Did they win the lottery and buy the best PSA 10 Purple Sticker HE PQ XYZ copy of the card?

The further away from the auction the underbidder lost you get, the more likely that money is used for something else or the underbidder's focus has shifted.

[CobbSpikedMe]

Originally Posted by frankbmd

Wisely you review recent auction data to see what you might ask for the card. You find a recent auction with a price that surprises you on the "high" side.

Before pricing your card you need to look at all the recent auction data you found, not just the "high" side auction. If that high side sale was an anomaly and every other sale was much lower than what you decided to list your card for, then you shouldn't expect to find a bidder for your price.

[ALBB]

Frank

wow, that story is so close to true for many, it probably is true for many

[Exhibitman]

Could just be timing. I cannot count the # of times I've had an item not sell at all during one run on eBay then fetch multiple bids the next time I run it at the same opening price.

[Cozumeleno]

I don't sell much these days but when I did, this happened quite frequently. I could never really explain it until it happened to me.

I have been offered an underbidder deal several times and have taken the seller up on it mostly. But two times I did not and both had to do little with not actually wanting the item and more with having coincidentally bought other items before those opportunities came up.

I also think there's a sense of a buyer deciding they didn't really need the item as badly as they thought. I'm guessing that because, even on some occasions I did take the seller up on it, I did so reluctantly wondering if I really needed the cards. I expect that happens quite a bit. So much of the stuff we buy, cards or other things, is probably of a somewhat whimsical nature.

[h2oya311]

This is so true on so many levels.

Another variable that some forget about is the increased use of coupons and other eBay promotions that could impact pricing on a certain day. 8-15% would certainly impact the final price.

[1952boyntoncollector]

I know when i was buying 1952s pretty regularly there was a competitive ebay ID nemesis i would compete against. Many times it was just the two of us that separated from the pack bidding who didnt want to wait another 4 weeks etc for the centered common to come up again.

The one consolation was if lost the bidding on the card, id pick it up cheaper in the next auction. Thus, someone offering me the same looking card for what I bid on it an the former auction was not appealing..

I would more point to the fact when the bidding was still in the 'pack' range and you cant sell the card for that...then thats an issue...not just to a lone underbidder

[Leon]

I agree with this. There is likely more than one explanation for someone buying a card at a higher price than one sold or listed. I remember when selling some of my items in auction, I had left one of them on my for sale website by accident. It sold in auction for more than I had it listed for on my site. The winner in auction asked if he could have it at my site price (*you know who you are ) and I had to say "no".

Originally Posted by Lorewalker

Hello Frank,
This is the smoke and mirrors effect I see time after time in the hobby that sometimes defies a conclusive or rational explanation. It would be easy to assume the high price point was the result of nefarious bidding however I think sometimes, it is as innocent as a collector, or two (because it takes two to tango), getting caught up in the moment.

I do consult recent sales before I decide to sell something and it now requires effort and reasoning to be able to interpret the data provided because so many factors can influence the final price. Maybe it was a very high end example and someone thought they could get a grade bump. Maybe the card had exceptional centering as we know the hobby loves centered card. Maybe this was the first time in a couple years this card was sold and sadly maybe it just was someone tinkering with the sale's process.

Just my thoughts...

Chase

[pbspelly]

I think psychology and bidders getting caught up in the moment has a lot to do with it. I used to sell old restored telephones on eBay. So-called "Lucy" phones from the 1940s, mostly. I would usually only put one or two up for sale per week, even if I had more than that in stock to sell, because if I put more than two at a time, the ending auction price for each one was lower. So a number of times, after a phone had sold to a high bidder, I would contact one or more of the underbidders and offer them another phone I had in stock. Same exact phone, sometimes nicer than the one they had just bid several times on. No one ever took me up on it. Not once.

[commishbob]

I don't know the answer but I'm impressed that you could work "Shibboleths" into a Net54 thread. :::captip:::

[Leon]

You can probably add alcohol as an ancillary explanation.

Originally Posted by pbspelly

I think psychology and bidders getting caught up in the moment has a lot to do with it. I used to sell old restored telephones on eBay. So-called "Lucy" phones from the 1940s, mostly. I would usually only put one or two up for sale per week, even if I had more than that in stock to sell, because if I put more than two at a time, the ending auction price for each one was lower. So a number of times, after a phone had sold to a high bidder, I would contact one or more of the underbidders and offer them another phone I had in stock. Same exact phone, sometimes nicer than the one they had just bid several times on. No one ever took me up on it. Not once.

[frankbmd]

Originally Posted by Leon

You can probably add alcohol as an ancillary explanation.

I suppose alcohol could be considered a shenanigan or a collector’s shibboleth.

Cheers!!!