How accurate is this T206 base price-guide?

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Posted By: Trae R.

Judging by todays makret value how close do you think this guide is in pricing effectively?
http://www.t206museum.com/page/price_list1.html

I am putting together a database project with this and other information for all T206 collectors to use in valuating their cards by the T206.com formula via an automated web selection form and I'd like to verify I am inputting correct data.

Thanks

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Posted By: John

I would say that the T206 Museum price guide is way off. Most VG cards worth having that I have purchased have cost me between $30-40 bucks on eBay.

Best of luck getting a VG Demmit for $1250.

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&rd=1&item=5148825742&ssPageName=STRK:MEWA:IT

Just my thoughts.

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Posted By: Mark Holt

I think its pretty accurate for raw cards with a bit of an uptick for PSA, SGC or GAI graded ones.

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Posted By: Cy

I contacted them about the prices. The $18 is the common price from the 2004 SCD. They are in the process of updating their page and their price-list. When they do, I think they will use the $25 price for a VG common that is in the 2005 SCD. That is about the going rate for a solid VG card.

Cy

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Posted By: Trae R.

Very cool, thanks everyone. I will update the commons prices to $25, and see what happens with the rest of the higher valued cards. I'm going to start getting everything ready regardless. I think this tool will be of use to many of you. I know I'll be using it.

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Posted By: Chris

Seems fairly accurate to me for raw cards. Of course $110,000 will not get a Wagner in VG condition either. There will always be higher and lower prices for cards realized.

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Posted By: john/z28jd

I helped them redo their prices a little over 2 years ago and it looks like they havent changed since then.On one of the pages it even says updated november 2002,so its basically what it says,2 year old prices,and they have definitely changed since then

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Posted By: Julie

holder), and was advised not to take it. Consignor wanted me to get $12,000. I took the $10,000 because that was all I needed to bid with. This was 2 years ago.

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Posted By: Trae R.

Do you all feel that the backs & conitions multipliers are fair on the t206museum.com website?

If I were to go about the task of updating the pricelist database myself, would SCD be the most surefire place to price from? I'd just like to see that this is done right so it's as accurate as possible from a valuation standpoint.

Thanks again for the help!

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Posted By: john/z28jd

The prices of graded cards from 4/50 to 7/84 has definitely changed so they need to change those.If they change the base price then the backs and graded cards(with a little tweaking) should fall into place

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Posted By: Trae R.

Thank you, John. I'll email and see when they'll be updating everything - do you happen to have any idea?

Also, the numbers you mention in you last post, are those in reference to SGC grades?

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Posted By: Scottopotamus

My collection is at the very low send of the spectrum and I would LOVE to be able to buy a VG common for $18.00.

Just off the top of my head, I would bump the $18.00 up to $25.00 or so.

Scottoptamus
My T206 Web Site

http://www.freewebs.com/scottopotamus

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Posted By: john/z28jd

yes those are sgc grades. a vg/ex is an sgc50(psa4)

I have no idea when they will update their prices.When i adjusted some of the prices for them back in 2002 they said they were going to give me credit for helping them with prices. I didnt ask for it but thought it would be cool anyway,and they never did.They said it in an email to me and on their message board.Maybe its a little childish on my part since i didnt want it or ask in the first place but if they said they were gonna do it and they never did then why should i keep helping them.I had done a few other minor things for them previous to that and i didnt ask for any credit(nor did they offer) and it didnt bother me.

Its an interesting reference site to learn and see about t206s but it shouldnt be used as more than a reference(like a price guide).The prices arent set in stone

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Posted By: Scott

Their site is a great starting point for novice t206 collectors, but any "facts" and "data" should be taken with a grain of salt.

I would always go to the SCBC first for price guidelines, then tweak based on your own knowledge of the current market.

We once debated here whether or not a newsletter should be put in email, web-site, or printed format. My argument for print format is that it induces more accountability. Web-sites can easily be made to look believable, but in many cases have next to zero credibility. I think that when Art and Doug publish their t206 book the t206museum will be forced to do a major overhaul or risk becoming totally obsolete - this would kill their main purpose which seems to be to to buy cards cheap from novices who contact them with questions.

BTW - if you ever ask t206museum a question about a card you have, and their response is to ask you how much you want for it, put it on ebay or post it here instead.

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Posted By: warshawlaw

A guide is an opinion unless it is based on actual numbers and even then it is suspect unless the actual numbers are presented to you for review or may be readily verified from readily ascertainable sources. When a pricing decision is made for a book you can do it by averaging prices, estimating or presenting actual transacted prices.

The problem with averages is sample size and variables not reflected in the results (such as choosing a poor venue to sell, using the wrong ebay category, selling a legit item with low or no feedback, etc.). One example: several very rare Zeenut HOFers went off recently in a minor auction house for very small prices. The facts that the auctioneer (1) was not major and (2) turned off a lot of people with really high vig, would not be accounted for if the auction results are used to create a guide without explanation. Take the same cards and put them into Mastro or even on Ebay and you are looking at another zero on each sale price.

If the guide is averaging prices, just remember statistically speaking if one of your feet is on fire and the other is in a block of ice, you are overall at a comfortable temperature. I am always wary of a price on a rare item where the pricer says in essence "I lumped a bunch of results together, divided and came up with an average price." Who knows what went into that average? A great deal of statistical analysis involves weighting the results, calculating whether a deviation from the norm (i.e., a bidding fight between two rich a-holes over a common card) unduly affected the outcome, etc.

Estimating is fraught with bias on the part of the estimator unless it is based on hard numbers. If the former it is a SWAG estimate (Standard Wild-Assed Guess methodology). If the latter, why not just resort to the hard numbers?

Hard sales are always the most accurate price gauge. I use hard sales figures in my boxing card guides. If a dozen examples of a rare card transacted, I post all of them. Example: here is the 1951 Ringside Rocky Marciano listing from my book: PSA 9 $4,350.00; PSA 8 $911.00, $1,274.00; GAI 6.5 $208.50; GAI 6 $268, $185.50 PSA 6 $191.38, $207.50.

The point of this long-winded post is that if you really want to learn prices on a set like T206, you have to do your homework. Use the search function on ebay to pull up prices you need, track significant cards, and get a feel for the pricing trends. After a time, you may have seen several hundred vg commons change hands and may be comfortable saying that as of "x" date they generally retail for $15-$25. Just remember that pricing is an ongoing process. The market is constantly evolving and the feedback mechanisms available to track that evolution are getting better and better.

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Posted By: Trae R.

Many thanks, Adam. I will start off with something basic, post it, and then you all can help me keep it where it needs to be in terms of accuracy.

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Posted By: Scott

David Rudd once said that he felt the best way to keep up with market prices was to buy and sell, and I agree. At one time I stopped collecting for about 9 months - the result was that when I was ready to start again, I had no idea what current market values were. I was quickly reminded that SCBC was only a guide as I was consistently overbid on EVERYTHING I attempted to buy, either on ebay or otherwise.

After a few months of re-immersing myself in cards, I won several large t206 lots with a goal of breaking them up for re-sell. I was able to assess my knowledge of prices when I attempted to build a price-list - I needed much more help from friends than I would have expected. I submitted the result to board members and quickly found out which cards were under-priced: cards such as "Rhoades throwing" got multiple inquiries, while a few HOF'ers I was especially proud of got none. I managed to sell about 70 of them to board members, then put the remaining 100 or so on ebay and got the rest of my education. If you can afford to go through a similar exercise, you will learn a lot.

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Posted By: Jason Smith

Yes, the T206 market seems to be a very volitile one. On ebay it can even depend on the day/time of day, and of course who comes out to bid. I've been collecting t206s pretty heavy for about a year and a half now. Most of my collection comes from ebay purchases, so I feel like I know the values of cards, but I'm always surprised, or disappointed when I think I'll definitely have the high bid, only to be outbid. So, of course, it comes down to what someone else thinks it's worth.
There have been lots of topics on this board that list the harder to find (low pop) commons. Those cards can be worth as much as a Southern Leaguer sometimes. Southern Leaguers are getting to be impossible too as people put sets together and care about them so much. I've yet to get one, and I've got almost 30% of the set completed...
Here's a guide as of 1/1/2005 from my point of view... As I collect PSA graded (I know, a whole other can of worms!) for ebay security reasons, because I love the registry idea, and as well as to protect the cards and my investment, these values are based on cards in PSA holders, common backs, and are just my experienced opinion...

PSA 3 commons - $25
PSA 3 "low end" HOF - $70
PSA 3 "superstar" HOF - $200 and up.
PSA 4 commons - $45 (this one seems to be the most on the rise, and that makes sense, as it seems to be a good base grade for a "respectable mid grade set", i.e. what I'm trying to collect.)
PSA 4 SL - $100
PSA 4 "low end" HOF - $130
PSA 4 "superstar" HOF - $400 +
PSA 5 commons - $80 (has gone up from $65 in the past year, with Minor Leaguers catching up with the Majors too.)
PSA 5 SL - $175
PSA 5 "low end" HOF - $200
PSA 5 "superstar" HOF - $700 +
PSA 6 commons - $175 (has gone up from $120 in the last year or so. This is my favorite grade to collect. It's nearly affordable, and most of mine are beautiful cards.)
PSA 6 SL - $300
PSA 6 "low end" HOF - $400 +
PSA 6 "superstar" HOF - $800 +

I don't collect 7s and 8s, but the common 7s seem to be going for $350 and up these days. 7s are completely unpredictable, as it really just depends on if the elite collectors that bid on those cards already have the card in question. If 2 or 3 bidders don't have the card yet then watch out. Some people seem to be willing to pay whatever it takes. I would like to have a 7, but I'm not going to outbid anyone too soon on one, and I'd rather have 4 PSA 5s than one 7...

There's my opinion. There have been discussions as to people on the board who track every T206 card sold on ebay. Those guys know the whole truth. I'm very impressed with that. I also subscribe to Andale to keep somewhat up to date, but basically go on instinct and experience. I have my limits right now. Someday I know that I'll be forced to spend bigger coin on the set, but for now I'm just enjoying collecting what I can afford, and like I said, that's 30% of the collection so far. If you told me I'd have that many cards last year at this time I'd be very excited...
Jason

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Posted By: Elliot

Where can u get PSA 4 SL'ers for $100?

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Posted By: Jason Smith

Well, I may be a little off on the low side, and it's a small sample of cards, but here's what I found on Andale - all from ebay. Like I said, I don't own any Southern Leaguers, so I may not be right on, but here's what I found...

1909-11 T206 Ed Reagan New Orleans PSA 4 Old Mill
2004-11-24 19:45:12
15 bids
$117.90

5147117338
1909 - 1911 T206 J. Ross Helm - Columbus PSA 4
2004-12-16 18:47:50
12 bids
$105.88

5142036475
T206 William Otey, Norfolk, So. Leaguer, PSA 4
2004-11-29 19:24:00
5 bids
$96.00

Jason

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Posted By: Scott Bob

I emailed t206 museum a couple times regarding t206 reprints and t206 oddball cards that I own. They have been very helpful and honest. They never asked me to sell them anything. They said they will update their t206 formula shortly.

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Posted By: Chris

There were a few that were sold on Ebat recently and none went for under $115 if I am not mistaken. a 5 went for a little over $200. I think the days of $100 PSA 4's is gone. I will gladly pay $100 for PSA 4's though.

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Posted By: Scott

...but who are you, "Scott Bob"?

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Posted By: Scot Reader (ebay: sreader3)

I tracked T206 ebay auctions from October 2003 to October 2004. While time did not permit me to capture every transaction, I did manage to record over 7,000 [by card, back (where available), grading company (where applicable) and condition]. I have been hoping to put together a publication based on these data, but my damn job keeps getting in the way. (Extremely rude of my clients to expect me to work for them as a condition for paying me, don't you think?) Anyway, if you think access to these data might help you with your pricing formula, send me an email and maybe we can work something out. P.S. My data are generally in line with the price estimates suggested above by Jason Smith.

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Posted By: Scot Reader (ebay: sreader3)

I thought my email address would be printed in my message but I guess I not. It's sarpc@qwest.net.

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Posted By: Elliot

Your email address is visible. Just run your cursor over your name (if it is in blue) and the email address appears. If the name is in black (like mine in this post then the email address does not appear.

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Posted By: Josh K.

I have bought several T206 cards in the past year - here is a sampling of what the formula says the cards are worth followed in parens by what I paid (all have common backs with a 1 multiplier):


Cobb(red) GAI 3.5 - $935 (paid $770)
Cobb(bat on) GAI 2 - 440 (paid $381)
Johnson (pitching) GAI 4 - 440 (411)
Young (hand) GAI 4 - 300 ($361)
Speaker SGC 40 - 225 (261)
Matty (dark) PSA 4 - 320 (356)
Lajoie (throwing)PSA 4 - 240 (205)

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Posted By: Darren J. Duet

I will buy every card at those prices.

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Posted By: Josh K.

Darren -

While I appreciate the "offer" the I will respectfully decline;) One thing I didnt note in my last post, and which you have sort of confirmed, is that I do believe I got most of those cards at very good prices regardless of whether they are above or below what the formula says they should be worth.

In fact, I recently sold another Young (throwing) PSA 4 (overgraded in my opinion) for over $400 (a card I supposedly overpaid for in a GAI 4 at $361) and there is current auction for a Lajoie (throwing) SGC 50 already at $250.