T206 Jumbo Wagner estimated price poll

[Leon]

As of right now there hasn't been a decision of a reserve or not on the Jumbo Wagner coming up for sale. That will be a game day decision based on how the auctioneer feels at the time it opens. What do you think it will bring in auction, remembering that this card brought 1.62 million last time, and no unaltered Wagner has ever sold (publicly) for less than it did previously? Not saying one can't sell for less but that hasn't been the case on recorded sales (I am aware of).

[barrysloate]

I think you are correct that nobody has ever lost money on a Wagner. I think this one will ballpark around $2 million.

[Rob D.]

Didn't a restored example sell for $222,000 in Legendary in July 2009, then for $188,000 in REA in May 2011?

Wagner No.1 on the chart:

http://www.t206resource.com/WagnerSales.html

[barrysloate]

You're probably right Rob...should have said no unrestored Wagner has ever lost money.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by Rob D.

Didn't a restored example sell for $222,000 in Legendary in July 2009, then for $188,000 in REA in May 2011?

Wagner No.1 on the chart:

http://www.t206resource.com/WagnerSales.html

Maybe, so I fixed my first post. Now it is correct again. thanks

[teetwoohsix]

Well, I picked 1.6-2.0 because I love this example. But, everyone's tastes are different.

Sincerely, Clayton

[oldjudge]

Leon-the fact that the auction house says that they have not decided as to whether or not there will be a reserve effectively means that there will be a reserve. What I mean is that if the bidding is "low" on the card I would guess that that would trigger the decision to institute a reserve. If the bidding is aggressive then there would be no need for a reserve and there may not be one. This is a de facto reserve. Can the auction house say when this decision will be made? If it is late in the life of this auction then that reinforces what I have said.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by oldjudge

Leon-the fact that the auction house says that they have not decided as to whether or not there will be a reserve effectively means that there will be a reserve. What I mean is that if the bidding is "low" on the card I would guess that that would trigger the decision to institute a reserve. If the bidding is aggressive then there would be no need for a reserve and there may not be one. This is a de facto reserve. Can the auction house say when this decision will be made? If it is late in the life of this auction then that reinforces what I have said.

Jay- I don't think you comprehended exactly what I said or maybe I didn't say it correctly. Here is what I stated in my first post-

As of right now there hasn't been a decision of a reserve or not on the Jumbo Wagner coming up for sale. That will be a game day decision based on how the auctioneer feels at the time it opens.


To me that is not a de defacto reserve, that is holding your hand until it needs to be played. I can't blame him either. Maybe you took what I said differently than what I meant. I know when I spoke to Ken G. this morning he said he is weighing all options. He knows a reserve isn't the absolute best way to get top dollar but if he feels he needs to protect the card, on opening day, he is reserving that right. I absolutely could be wrong but I think we see the card NOT have a reserve on opening day.

To answer your question specifically, and he could change his mind, but he indicated a reserve would be set, if there is one, on opening day or the day before. I would be surprised if he opened it without a reserve and then put one on it as the auction proceeded. Let me make it perfectly clear too, nothing I say will prevent him from doing what he sees in his best interest with the card. I believe he, and he alone, is making the decision on having a reserve, or not.

[oldjudge]

Leon-the following is just a guess on my part and no more. My guess is that the only reason a consignors would consign a card like this to Ken, rather than to one of the major auction houses, like REA or Heritage, is that Ken guaranteed the consignor a minimum realization for the card ( or the card would not be sold). If that is the case then waiting till the last minute to decide whether to institute a reserve is just seeing if this unstated reserve has been met, thereby eliminating he need for a stated reserve. Whether stated or not, it is hard for me to believe that this lot does not have a reserve.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by oldjudge

Leon-the following is just a guess on my part and no more. My guess is that the only reason a consignors would consign a card like this to Ken, rather than to one of the major auction houses, like REA or Heritage, is that Ken guaranteed the consignor a minimum realization for the card ( or the card would not be sold). If that is the case then waiting till the last minute to decide whether to institute a reserve is just seeing if this unstated reserve has been met, thereby eliminating he need for a stated reserve. Whether stated or not, it is hard for me to believe that this lot does not have a reserve.

Jay- Ken and I just now spoke AGAIN. If there will be a reserve it will be made known on day 1, always. He told me he will never put a reserve on a card after an auction starts, if it didn't already have one when the auction starts. Right this minute, in my mind, I am leaning toward it not having a reserve, but my percentage chance is not lopsided so it could change. I think between now and the day of the auction opening Ken will speak with enough potential buyers that he will feel comfortable letting it run without one. That is no guarantee though.....

and, since Ken told me specifically that I could cut, paste and post this if I want to, I will....here is a statement he made to me today.


Ken Goldin
Under no circumstances will an auction item start off day 1 with no reserve and then have a reserve placed on it in the middle of the auction.







.
.

[wonkaticket]

This is a really fresh sale the new owner of this card hasn’t had it all that long. Now it’s up for grabs with a non-major auction house no offense to Ken. I think there will be a reserve and this is a test of the waters for the new owner and great publicity for Ken and his auction house.