Will the pre-war grading market ever die out??

[Bilko G]

With JSA recently buying SGC this really got me thinking about this. With the new card market BGS and PSA to an extent, does not have to worry about this, as there are a ton of new modern cards that are coming out every year, which means practically an endless modern supply for BGS/PSA to grade. Now everyone knows that SGCs main market is pre war and a few 50s and 60s cards here and there. SGC does not grade very many modern cards at all. Sure you might see a few modern cards graded by SGC on ebay, but overall i can say that i have never seen a modern collector post a "pop" from SGC of modern cards on any message board ever. Modern cards is not SGC thing, which is well known.

So what i am asking and trying to get to, is when is this pre war supply of raw cards gonna run out for SGC to grade?

Relatively speaking, the graded card market is still pretty new. Im not sure what year SGC began their company, but grading has only been popular and widespread for what, the last 10-15 years? In that time there must have been a whole bunch of pre war cards graded. Sure, there will always be a few new collections discovered that will need grading and once and awhile people switch company's and try for "bumps", but doesn't everyone think that eventually the supply of raw pre war cards that need grading is gonna come to a halt?

[mintacular]

Well, you make a few good points...I think SGC would be wise to expand to all areas of collecting including more modern (there are many people who buy/sell modern SGC cards btw...)One thing I think is that as printing technology continues to advance more good fakes will be floating around and as a result further necessitate the need for authentification/verification of the remaining ungraded original stuff...

[murcerfan]

when the volume gets low enough they'll just come up with the brilliant idea of half grades and/or re-adjust the bizarre point system they had to adopt to avoid patent/copyright infringement. the ensuing business from slab crackers and flippers ought to keep them busy for a year or so.

[vintagecpa]

I suspect it already might be close. I see PSA ultimately buying SGC in the next 5-10 years. Everything ultimately comes down to simple economics.

[egbeachley]

I think the more likely scenario is that as older ungraded card populations dwindle over the upcoming years, SGC will naturally grade more recent items. Meaning that in 10-20 years from now they will be grading more 50's cards. 10 years later, more 60's cards. Etc.

In their latest 10K, PSA said they average $5.60 revenue per graded card. They must be overwhelmingly grading new stuff and include many volume discounts. SGC is probably averaging twice that revenue. That likely means SGC makes a profit while PSA does not. If so, who is buying who?

[toppcat]

Originally Posted by vintagecpa

I suspect it already might be close. I see PSA ultimately buying SGC in the next 5-10 years. Everything ultimately comes down to simple economics.

Isn't PSA's parent company somewhat cash flow inhibited?

[vintagecpa]

Originally Posted by toppcat

Isn't PSA's parent company somewhat cash flow inhibited?

Perhaps, but I never let the facts get in the way of a good story. I do think sgc will have some difficulty capturing the 50's and 60's market because of psa's registry set stranglehold.

[glchen]

I thought I read somewhere that PSA's doesn't supply that much income to CLCT. Instead the coin business made the lion's share of their revenue/profits.

[David W]

One of the problems with grading most of the stuff from the last 15 years or so, is that unless you get a 9 or 10, you can't sell it for more than the grading fees. Even the hall of famers in all sports are out there at buy it nows for $9.99 or less in PSA 10 on ebay in the majority of the sets.

So the vast majority of modern stuff does not have enough value to even get graded.

[tbob]

I have no problem buying 50's and 60's cards in SGC holders. If you stick to the time honored tradition of buying the card not the holder, you can buy better cards for less on ebay if they are in SGC holders as opposed to PSA holders. Although I have many pre-war registry sets with SGC I never plan on having anything registered after 1940 (war and post war), so I, for one, am content on buying SGC graded cards even though the value in a PSA holder may be greater.

[lancemountain]

I don't like PSA and with SGC grading autographs now (I'm assuming) I think the superior slabs and easier customer service that SGC provides will allow them to steal a good amount of PSA's business in 50-60's auto'd cards.


I've been slowly grading all of my modern Utley Ginter cards with SGC. One of my favorite cards that I own is a 98 Ginter Cabinet /25. My grades actually just popped tonight. Some as expected, some not

edit to add scan.

I think the modern cards based on vintage sets look great in SGC holders

[lharri3600]

i really hope this does not happen.

Originally Posted by vintagecpa

I suspect it already might be close. I see PSA ultimately buying SGC in the next 5-10 years. Everything ultimately comes down to simple economics.

[toledo_mudhen]

And I see SGC ultimately taking over the entire market simply based on a quality product and superior customer service. Keep in mind PSA's long time mission statement - "We're not happy until you're not happy"

[4815162342]

Originally Posted by toledo_mudhen

And I see SGC ultimately taking over the entire market...

Umm, doubtful.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by toledo_mudhen

And I see SGC ultimately taking over the entire market simply based on a quality product and superior customer service. Keep in mind PSA's long time mission statement - "We're not happy until you're not happy"

Hey Toledo guy,
Please be careful about what you say, disparagingly, on the board. I don't care if you say it so much as you will need to put your full name out here if you do. The reason being is how do our members know you don't work for a competitor of PSA, or have a previous dispute etc...? Thanks for your participation and understanding. regards