Black Swamp Find?

[Leon]

Originally Posted by msohn

I was stunned to see so many high grade Cobbs in that find. (But it makes sense, when I think about how many high grade Roger Clemens cards I saved in the 80s - the collector saved the best!).

I agree with your view that the price appreciation potential of the E98 Cobb is limited, but I think that this card could still command $25,000+ for all. Consider the 1915 Cracker Jack card, which is reported to have a population of 10 for PSA 8, a pop of 2 at 8.5 and a pop 1 at 9. The PSA 8s are likely able to get $20-25,000 despite having 3 cards in higher grade.

Nice analysis and you absolutely could be right on the prices. We will know eventually. Maybe the Cobbs go for way more than first imagined. 50K each?, 35k each?, Who knows until they are sold. happy collecting

[msohn]

Originally Posted by Leon

Nice analysis and you absolutely could be right on the prices. We will know eventually. Maybe the Cobbs go for way more than first imagined. 50K each?, 35k each?, Who knows until they are sold. happy collecting

As with everything, there is definitely more than art than science to determining value. But you are right - we will all know soon.

If the 1915 Cracker Jacks are a good gauge for what they could be worth, then you have to think that the T206 Cobb varieties have good room to run.

[barrysloate]

The history of collecting is filled with stories of famous hoards, most prominently in the field of numismatics. Pick up a copy of the Red Book and there are pages recounting enormous hoards, often with thousands of rare coins found in one place. And all of them end the same way: the hobby absorbs all the material, and over time a stable price structure is achieved.

The same will happen with this find. While it is of course mind boggling in scope, all the cards will eventually find their way into collections and all will trade at some reasonably high value. Maybe an E98 Cobb will be a whole lot cheaper than an E93 Cobb, but it will still be valuable and there will still be a market for it. But you need patience. If you buy them you have to be prepared to put them away for a few years. As I said earlier, the dealers who buy these just to flip them the next day will have their hands full. This is a long term project.

[Matt]

Originally Posted by msohn

If the 1915 Cracker Jacks are a good gauge for what they could be worth, then you have to think that the T206 Cobb varieties have good room to run.

Historically, this issue isn't anywhere near as popular as the cracker jacks, so the demand is not close.

[Matt]

"Heritage Auctions plans to sell most of the Ohio cards over the next two of three years through auctions and private sales so that it doesn't flood the market. In all, they could bring $2 million or $3 million, Ivy said."

This is interesting; with the entirety of the find being well publicized, how much impact will releasing them over multiple years really have? Knowing there are another 20 of a card coming will certainly depress prices, even of the first ones offered, though spacing them out will allow certain folks to reload their wallet over time.

[WhenItWasAHobby]

Karl Kissner poses for a photo in front of the door to an attic in his grandfather's old home
on Tuesday, July 10, 2012, where he and a cousin found a collection of century-old baseball
cards in Defiance, Ohio. The cards are from an extremely rare series issued around 1910 and
the best of the bunch — 37 cards — are expected to bring a total of $500,000 when
they are sold at auction in August during the National Sports Collectors Convention in
Baltimore. There are about 700 cards in all that could be worth up to $3 million, experts say.
Photo: John Seewer / AP

[ullmandds]

I'm not sure I understand the comparison to Cracker Jack...or the below logic?


"If the 1915 Cracker Jacks are a good gauge for what they could be worth, then you have to think that the T206 Cobb varieties have good room to run."

[autograf]

I think there's 20+ cousins that all lay claim to the hoard, so about $150K per person. Still a nice windfall when you weren't expecting it! I'd keep my 35 cards if it were me though!

[glynparson]

Baseball card article on the front page of my local paper.

[msohn]

Originally Posted by ullmandds

I'm not sure I understand the comparison to Cracker Jack...or the below logic?


"If the 1915 Cracker Jacks are a good gauge for what they could be worth, then you have to think that the T206 Cobb varieties have good room to run."

I agree - that was poorly written. I am using a relative value approach.

If this Black Swamp Find had just a single E98 Ty Cobb that graded PSA 9, it would probably be worth >$200,000. In this case, this magnificent find produced a mind boggling 16 copies earning a PSA 9 grade. On the one hand, you have one of the earliest and rarest (until now) and finest examples of a Ty Cobb. On the other hand, there are now 16 of these beauties, not just one or two.

Can the market absorb 16 of these cards? I think so. As a comparison, I looked at the 1915 Cracker Jack set, where PSA has graded 8 Ty Cobb cards in PSA 8, 2 in PSA 8.5 and 1 in PSA 9. Despite having a population of 8 copies in PSA 8, this Cobb should be able to command $20,000 to $25,000 if offered for sale (SMR value = $23,000).

So given the significant of the E98 card, and its pristine condition, my bet would be that Heritage could release these cards into the market at $25,000. However, the upside to this card is clearly capped, at what level, I don't know.

[Tsaiko]

Having my morning cup of joe, reading about the find in the LA Times; and what Barry thinks.
http://www.latimes.com/sports/la-sp-...0,221825.story

[barrysloate]

I said a lot more than that....I think I was quoted a bit out of context.

[Leon]

I just received a call from the executor of the estate, Karl. He wants me to express gratitude to some of our board members for all of their help in this discovery. We only had a short (5-10 minute) call as he was taking a call from Canadian Press. . Unfortunately he himself will not be able to attend the National and the auction but he did say that 20+ members of the family will be there. As late breaking news there will be one of the speakers at the Net54baseball Dinner speaking about the find. One thing Karl noted, which is truly newsworthy, is that through this whole monumental find, and windfall of monies to be had, there hasn't been even 1 family argument about it. That really says something about this fine family.

[barrysloate]

I bet they never could have imagined how a small box sitting in their attic would so drastically change their lives. Not only is it a huge financial windfall, but they are getting their 15 minutes of fame, and then some.

[iggyman]

Black Swamp find now with video! Regrettably the Barry Sloate interview didn't make the final cut. Would you have purchased that house for one million dollars a few months back???

http://blog.syracuse.com/sports/2012...ollection.html

Lovely Day...

[ullmandds]

cool video...doesn't look like it could have happened to a nicer guy...and his family!!!!!!

I'd like to see the box they were in? And the doll house for that matter!

[atx840]

Very cool to see the dilapidated house these were stored in, easily could have been ruined by water/fire....this story keeps getting more amazing.

[bosoxphan]

Dman. All i found in my attic was a stash of porn.

[barrysloate]

I'm watching ABC News at 4:00 in NY and there was just a promo for the collection, so they are about to do a story shortly. My guess is all the hour news programs will have something about it today.

[4815162342]

A couple of videos I was asked to share:

http://news.yahoo.com/video/us-15749...-29943252.html

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-505263_1...ound-in-attic/

[ethicsprof]

I think you may have retired after all, ole buddy.
I just read the piece in the LA paper and it identifies you as retired!
congrats on the interview.
amazing,amazing find.
all the best,
barry

[barrysloate]

Well the guy asked me if I was still running auctions and I said, No, I'm retired...did I know that that was what he was going to pick up on?

[cobblove]

Heritage Auctions plans to sell most of the Ohio cards over the next two of three years through auctions and private sales so that it doesn't flood the market. In all, they could bring $2 million or $3 million, Ivy said."

Not flood the market???? Thats like 1-2 hounus Wagner a month for the next 3 years. Seems like thats flooding it.

[dstudeba]

Originally Posted by Leon

One thing Karl noted, which is truly newsworthy, is that through this whole monumental find, and windfall of monies to be had, there hasn't been even 1 family argument about it. That really says something about this fine family.

Best part of the story. Congratulations to them.

[Matt]

Originally Posted by msohn

I agree - that was poorly written. I am using a relative value approach.

If this Black Swamp Find had just a single E98 Ty Cobb that graded PSA 9, it would probably be worth >$200,000. In this case, this magnificent find produced a mind boggling 16 copies earning a PSA 9 grade. On the one hand, you have one of the earliest and rarest (until now) and finest examples of a Ty Cobb. On the other hand, there are now 16 of these beauties, not just one or two.

Can the market absorb 16 of these cards? I think so. As a comparison, I looked at the 1915 Cracker Jack set, where PSA has graded 8 Ty Cobb cards in PSA 8, 2 in PSA 8.5 and 1 in PSA 9. Despite having a population of 8 copies in PSA 8, this Cobb should be able to command $20,000 to $25,000 if offered for sale (SMR value = $23,000).

So given the significant of the E98 card, and its pristine condition, my bet would be that Heritage could release these cards into the market at $25,000. However, the upside to this card is clearly capped, at what level, I don't know.

There are differences in your comparison that are so wide you could drive a truck through them. The Cracker Jack issue is significantly more popular an issue then this one, to the point it's not even comparable. Even if the demand was the same, talking about pre-war cards, a population of 8 is also very different than a population of 25. Other than the supply being significantly higher and the demand being significantly lower, your analogy is spot on.

[peterose4hof]

There is no denying that up until now the Cracker Jacks have been infinitely more popular than the E98s. While I don't believe the popularity of the E98s will equal or surpass the Cracker Jacks at any point in time, I certainly think this find and all the publicity that comes with it will make the E98s much more popular than they ever were before. In addition, I believe a premium will be paid for all cards denoted as part of the "Black Swamp Find".

[ullmandds]

While I agree this whole thing will heighten awareness of a once pretty obscure set...which may enhance it's collectibility...I'm not so sure the moniker will increase values as there are more slabs with it...then without?!

[Leon]

Originally Posted by ullmandds

While I agree this whole thing will heighten awareness of a once pretty obscure set...which may enhance it's collectibility...I'm not so sure the moniker will increase values as there are more slabs with it...then without?!

I don't know. Many collectors I know will pay a bit more for something with impeccable provenance. We know no card doctors have gotten their mitts on these cards which is more than can be said for a lot of the tiny bordered but highly graded vintage cards we see.

[msohn]

Originally Posted by peterose4hof

There is no denying that up until now the Cracker Jacks have been infinitely more popular than the E98s. While I don't believe the popularity of the E98s will equal or surpass the Cracker Jacks at any point in time, I certainly think this find and all the publicity that comes with it will make the E98s much more popular than they ever were before. In addition, I believe a premium will be paid for all cards denoted as part of the "Black Swamp Find".

I talked to some folks at Heritage today. The one thing that really surprised me was the comment that all of the excitement around the "Black Swamp Find" has perked the interest from collectors in the coin and stamp markets.

In my opinion, if this Find can draw other collectors into our hobby (and beyond just the E98s), then this would be a huge positive for card values.

[phlflyer1]

Originally Posted by wonkaticket

Great card....not a 10...but amazing card. Scott M is still king of the E98's IMO.

Thanks for the sentiment, John, although this find makes the E98 set from my find quite pedestrian.

They are incredible cards and it sounds like it couldn't have happened to a nicer family. I hope they do exceedingly well in the auction!

[E93]

Scott M. Is pure class. Happy to see you around Scott
JimB

[Tom Hufford]

I was in Defiance, OH just this past weekend - my wife and I visited friends there on the way home from the SABR National Convention in Minneapolis. We had lunch with a woman we knew, and her husband who we met for the first time. When he heard about my interest in baseball, he said "you'll probably be interested in this story, then," and told me about the "Black Swamp" find. (but he didn't call it that - he called it the "Kissner's cards").

The story he told me (and he has known the family for years) has a bit of a twist to it, a bit different than what has been reported and discussed. He said the two sisters who lived in the house were real collectors/"pack rats", and that they collected anything and everything. Evidently the house was packed to the rafters, with everything imaginable. So, then he starts telling me about the TOBACCO baseball cards that were found - and that "most of them had never been opened." So I filled him in about the 1910-era cigarette cards, but warned him that if the cigarette packs hadn't been opened, they may well contain cards with birds or flags, not always baseball cards. Then he said " they weren't in packages of cigarettes, they were in packages of CHEWING TOBACCO!" (Evidently, a few packages were opened to see what was inside). When I expressed an interest in trying to see the cards, I was told that the family had "gotten in touch with some people in Texas who said the cards were authentic, and they're going to auction them off." So, that was my introduction to the "Black Swamp Find" - then all the publicity the past few days.

But, the family that found the cards had no idea what they were - all the press and hype has been about the E98 (candy) cards, but evidently the people involved mentioned cards from chewing tobacco packages (how stained would those be after 100 years?). So, perhaps some TOBACCO cards will also surface from this find!

My wife's grandfather owned a jewelry store on Clinton Street (the main street in town) in Defiance in the 1920s-60s, about two blocks from the restaurant that Karl Kissner owns. Kissner's is a beautiful place - a huge old wooden bar, pressed tin ceiling, etc. Looks pretty much unchanged from the 1910 era. Based on where Carl Hench (the fellow who saved the cards in 1910) lived and worked, I feel pretty certain that my wife's grandfather probably knew him. I wish they would have traded and collected together!

[momof6]

Interesting story, but sorry, no tobacco cards. These cards were ment to be handed out with candy. The best we can figure, Carl Hench, a german immigrant who spoke only broken English, received the cards as promotional items, and instead of handing them out, put them in a box in the attic instead. They were in a stack of boxes which contained his children's school papers. (The (one) aunt wasn't the only one who didn't throw things out.) Also in the attic was his brother's steamer trunk from his trip to America, old gas lamp fixtures (after the house was converted to electricity) and the grandma's clothes, still folded up in a dresser.
Jean Hench didn't like to throw anything out, but the house wasn't "full to the rafters" either. Many of the items in the house were of historical value to the family - Carl Hench's 1909 wedding shoes, newspaper clippings (from the flood of 1913, the start and end of WWII and the VietNam war), old toys and games, lots and lots of pictures - things from their lives through the years. Sorry, I don't have the box, but I do have the doll house. If you tell me how to upload a picture, I will gladly do so.
I have been following your chatter since day 1. As Karl said, we have learned much and enjoyed your input. Thank you!

[wonkaticket]

Originally Posted by E93

Scott M. Is pure class. Happy to see you around Scott
JimB

+1

Great seeing you pop up Scott give me a call sometime love to catch up. I hope you're doing well...I stand behind my words you're still the king of E98 Scott long live the Gang Green Set.

Cheers,

John

P.S. Nothing pedestrian about these beauties!

[ctownboy]

momof6,

It is good to hear more about this find. When Tom Hufford was telling his story, I thought for a moment there was going to be some heartbreaking news to many people on this board.

I was reading his story and he was talking about unopened tobacco products. I thought he was going to say that there were some unopened Piedmont or Sweet Caporal cardboard tobacco packs found and that either 1) because no one searching through the house smoked or 2) because no one wanted to try 100 year-old cigarettes, the packs were thrown away.

Then, after the E98's were found, did the people searching the house realize that they might have thrown away some valuable tobacco cards and went to look for them but they were already in the landfill.

David

[Bicem]

what's up with the green beaters?

[Matt]

Originally Posted by momof6

Interesting story, but sorry, no tobacco cards. These cards were ment to be handed out with candy. The best we can figure, Carl Hench, a german immigrant who spoke only broken English, received the cards as promotional items, and instead of handing them out, put them in a box in the attic instead. They were in a stack of boxes which contained his children's school papers. (The (one) aunt wasn't the only one who didn't throw things out.) Also in the attic was his brother's steamer trunk from his trip to America, old gas lamp fixtures (after the house was converted to electricity) and the grandma's clothes, still folded up in a dresser.
Jean Hench didn't like to throw anything out, but the house wasn't "full to the rafters" either. Many of the items in the house were of historical value to the family - Carl Hench's 1909 wedding shoes, newspaper clippings (from the flood of 1913, the start and end of WWII and the VietNam war), old toys and games, lots and lots of pictures - things from their lives through the years. Sorry, I don't have the box, but I do have the doll house. If you tell me how to upload a picture, I will gladly do so.
I have been following your chatter since day 1. As Karl said, we have learned much and enjoyed your input. Thank you!

Welcome to the forum! What is your role in the story?

[Leon]

Hi There Momof6,
As I told Karl yesterday I will help ya'll any way I can. If you want to post some pictures or scans on this board just send them to me and I will do it for you. You can send them to leonl@flash.net. Thanks for coming on the board and sharing more info. Karl has my number too, if you ever need to chat about something on the phone. best regards

Originally Posted by momof6

Interesting story, but sorry, no tobacco cards. These cards were ment to be handed out with candy. The best we can figure, Carl Hench, a german immigrant who spoke only broken English, received the cards as promotional items, and instead of handing them out, put them in a box in the attic instead. They were in a stack of boxes which contained his children's school papers. (The (one) aunt wasn't the only one who didn't throw things out.) Also in the attic was his brother's steamer trunk from his trip to America, old gas lamp fixtures (after the house was converted to electricity) and the grandma's clothes, still folded up in a dresser.
Jean Hench didn't like to throw anything out, but the house wasn't "full to the rafters" either. Many of the items in the house were of historical value to the family - Carl Hench's 1909 wedding shoes, newspaper clippings (from the flood of 1913, the start and end of WWII and the VietNam war), old toys and games, lots and lots of pictures - things from their lives through the years. Sorry, I don't have the box, but I do have the doll house. If you tell me how to upload a picture, I will gladly do so.
I have been following your chatter since day 1. As Karl said, we have learned much and enjoyed your input. Thank you!

[phlflyer1]

Originally Posted by wonkaticket

+1

Great seeing you pop up Scott give me a call sometime love to catch up. I hope you're doing well...I stand behind my words you're still the king of E98 Scott long live the Gang Green Set.

Cheers,

John

Thanks Jim and John for the kind words.

I'm still around and doing well although I haven't been too active in the hobby or on keeping up with the board the past couple of years.

Thankfully, I was alerted to this thread by a fellow collector and also by hearing about the find in the news.

I'm kind of disappointed that my old friend Pete C. did not reach out to me and let me know that he had the privilege of handling these cards since he was also the one to help me get the E98 set from my find graded back when I "came out of the woodwork" in 2005.

The cards from this find are definitely stunning and I can't wait to see how they do in the upcoming auctions as they are sold.

[mklitzke]

Hey All,

So I have the "Hans" Wagner card in orange and the Johnny Evers card in green from the E98 set.... We found them when clearing out my great-grandfather's attic in 1990. I've never really know what they were worth. They are not in mint condition, but there is very little discoloration on the white border and they still have crisp corners. Do you think they'll be worth much after this influx of cards from the Black Swamp Find...?

Thanks!

[peterose4hof]

Originally Posted by mklitzke

Hey All,

So I have the "Hans" Wagner card in orange and the Johnny Evers card in green from the E98 set.... We found them when clearing out my great-grandfather's attic in 1990. I've never really know what they were worth. They are not in mint condition, but there is very little discoloration on the white border and they still have crisp corners. Do you think they'll be worth much after this influx of cards from the Black Swamp Find...?

Thanks!

Do you have pictures or scans of the cards? That would really help in giving you an accurate valuation. As you probably have figured by now, condition is of the utmost importance.

[ullmandds]

It's pouring E98's!!!! I wish it would pour e94's...purple ones would be nice!!!!

[AndyG09]

E98, the new 1988 Donruss!

[Leon]

Originally Posted by mklitzke

Hey All,

So I have the "Hans" Wagner card in orange and the Johnny Evers card in green from the E98 set.... We found them when clearing out my great-grandfather's attic in 1990. I've never really know what they were worth. They are not in mint condition, but there is very little discoloration on the white border and they still have crisp corners. Do you think they'll be worth much after this influx of cards from the Black Swamp Find...?

Thanks!

Yes they will definitely still have good value but it is sort of hard to say where all of this is going to put the other cards already in the hobby. No doubt that red ones already in the hobby will take bit of a hit, with so many high grades ones being found. It's hard to fathom they wouldn't come down some. Other colors, it's just too hard to say right now. Would love to see scans of them too.

[ScottR81]

I posted this days ago and it got moved to watercooler talk???

[mklitzke]

I'll see if I can get some scans up in the next few days... they've been packed away for a while so I've gotta dig em out

[barrysloate]

I would be interested to know what percentage of the collection Heritage plans to sell privately. If nearly all are sold privately, and only a small group reaches auction, then prices might actually remain pretty strong. The fewer sold publicly, the greater the demand for the remaining ones.

I think for those collectors who want to make a serious investment in these, it's probably pretty tough to figure out what they're worth. I guess it's going to take some time for the market on these to stabilize, and I would expect some volatility early on.

[theuclakid]

it is my opinion that the high end ones will fly away fast....there are so many collectors with deep pockets, maybe some more active than others, but they will want to add these gems to their already staggering portfolios....and to have at least one for bragging rights...this is only common sense....Barry, are you adding any to your fabulous collection? They are beautiful, I hope I will be able to see some up close in Baltimore...Barry, speaking of BALTIMORE, any chance I can talk you into coming down to the national? I'll buy your badge...it would be great to see you....Bruce Perry

[barrysloate]

Hi Bruce- thanks for the invite, and it would be great to see you after so long. But I won't be in Baltimore. That Saturday is my 60th birthday so I will be with Judy for a little celebration. And my collection is gone....sold it quite a while ago. But I sure do like those E98's- they are tempting. Have fun at the National.

[theuclakid]

well Barry, HAPPY 60TH to be! (soon) I will toast you at dinner on Aug 4....I crossed the 60 plateau last April, and am feeling good! Please say hello to Judy for me....Bruce