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  #1  
Old 07-01-2016, 04:32 PM
JustCollectVP JustCollectVP is offline
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Default The Hobby: Bulls, Bears and Chicken Little

I’m pretty sure that most of us can agree that there have been some incredible run-ups on the prices of quite a few post-war rookie cards and the acceleration of the price increases has been mind-boggling to many. I’ve read and heard various reasons, explanations, finger pointing and conspiracy theories about the current state of the market. There’s really no reason to rehash all of that as it has been addressed ad infinitum. I think it is about time to take a solid look at the trend and dispute some of the Chicken Little theories.

If we can agree that the price increases have been somewhat specific and are affecting a small, but very visible segment of the hobby, then we should all be on board to have some open discussion with respect to some of the observations I will make further along in this post.

By nature, there has been some crossover of the price escalation into the prewar marketplace, but for the sake of this conversation, we’ll stick with the post war price changes and their overall effect on the hobby, collectors and the subsequent dialog.

Key rookie cards have been rising, seemingly exponentially, for the last few months, but it appears that the key point on the timeline was the liquidation of the Dmitri Young Collection in 2012 (and the fact that so many of the cards set records) that began the discussion questioning the buyers and how they would be upside down on their purchases. I heard many laughing and others posting to message boards about the PSA 10 1955 Roberto Clemente selling for $432,690.00 and how it was so insane. Does anyone wonder what they’re saying now? Considering that a PSA 9 Clemente just sold a few months ago for $478,000.00, I’ve heard some realistic suggestions that the PSA 10 might now be worth a million or more. I’m guessing the PSA 10 owner isn’t so upside down after all.

This afternoon, Leighton and I were discussing our collecting habits and the changes and turns that we’ve taken over the past decade or so. We’ve seen prices change on many things that we’ve collected. Some of the things that we collect have appreciated and we’ve had to make choices of continuing to collect, putting the collection on hold or liquidating to take advantage of the profits and redirect them elsewhere. It is standard fare and I’m sure that it is an exercise that most collectors go through on a regular basis – except those that just continue to add to their collection – not that there’s anything wrong with that.

I think many people are too busy worrying about things that really don’t have any impact on them or their collection, but it makes for great Internet fodder and for lively discussion. I can look around my office and find a plethora of items and issues that could satisfy a novice, intermediate or advanced collector. I still think that there are so many areas of the hobby that provide incredible value and opportunity, but some are too busy getting upset about one segment to realize that there is so much more out there. Sometimes, I guess it is difficult to see the forest through the trees – even if the trees are in the background of a Bender.

Some have taken to drastic extremes and made outlandish claims. Whether they just want to be part of the drama or they are completely disillusioned, I’ve seen many complaining that they have to leave the hobby because they can’t afford to collect anymore. REALLY? Can’t afford to collect? Perhaps if you have champagne dreams and beer money, then you’re limited, but that doesn’t mean that you can’t collect or have to leave the hobby. It probably means that what you want to collect you may no longer be able to afford or are unwilling to spend more than you would like. I know people that still collect and are very happy collecting while their collecting budget is less than a tank of gas a month. So, don’t try to convince me that the hobby has priced you out! The segment that you want to collect may have progressed beyond your means, but the hobby still has plenty for EVERYONE on ANY budget to collect. So, to be priced out of the hobby really means that you are unwilling to compromise on what you want to collect. So, you’re not priced out of the hobby . . . you’re priced out of the segment of the hobby in which you wish to participate. And as much as I’d like to have dated "Fall Guy" era Heather Thomas (insert the romantic interest of your fantasies), it wasn’t practical or plausible. But I didn’t complain or say that I was going to give up on dating and next year, I'll celebrate my 30th wedding anniversary.

As an example, if you want a nice Hank Aaron card, there are plenty to choose from whether it be his rookie, a leader card or something from after he retired. If you were priced out of a higher grade, buy a grade or two lower. If you are priced out of an issue, move on to another. You don’t have to be an heir to a Rockefeller or a Saudi Prince; you just have to have realistic expectations. But, as Leighton and I always recommend, you should try to buy the best example that your budget will allow.

Personally, I’d love to have all MINT and centered 1948 Leaf Football cards in my set, but they don’t exist and if they did, I couldn’t afford them, so I lowered my expectations and collected at a condition and price point that suited my budget and settled for very well centered EX/MT to NM/MT (PSA 6-PSA 8) cards. I’m not priced out of the hobby, but I know that I’m not sitting at the lunch table with the deep pocket folks that can pony up for the best of the best. There’s nothing wrong with that and after lunch we can still sit at the same bar and share stories about the joy of building our collections over a beer or a shot (or a Grape Nehi).
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Last edited by JustCollectVP; 07-01-2016 at 04:39 PM. Reason: Corrected incorrect TV show...
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  #2  
Old 07-01-2016, 04:53 PM
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Scott I agree the Dmitri sale sparked the fire.

I would love to own a 7,000 square foot house on Lake Conway. I can't afford it but I certainly don't begrudge those that can. It only serves as motivation. The same should hold true with collectors. Buy what you can afford and enjoy it. If you aspire to own cards out of your price range do what you can to make it happen.
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  #3  
Old 07-01-2016, 05:02 PM
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Default The Hobby: Bulls, Bears and Chicken Little

On my end, I will sacrifice frequency/volume. When I start buying again , my budget will probably be same as before as will the items of my interest. I'll just buy fewer items. I'd rather have a small handful of gems on par with my current collection than to start diluting the pool due to pricing changes and my unwillingness to change scope of collection, budget or quality of cards.

To each their own, but this will be my path.

Though I'm currently in the middle of a sell phase that could stretch another year or so.




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Last edited by BBB; 07-01-2016 at 05:03 PM.
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Old 07-01-2016, 06:04 PM
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Default The Hobby: Bulls, Bears and Chicken Little

First PWCC, now JustCollect. When will Probstein start one of these threads?

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Old 07-01-2016, 06:05 PM
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  #6  
Old 07-01-2016, 06:28 PM
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hmmm...

Last edited by Leon; 07-02-2016 at 07:03 AM.
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  #7  
Old 07-01-2016, 06:52 PM
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hmmm...
delete...

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  #8  
Old 07-01-2016, 06:54 PM
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First PWCC, now JustCollect. When will Probstein start one of these threads?
Daryl- I thought he already had...Oh, my bad, that was for bid shilling.....
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  #9  
Old 07-01-2016, 07:00 PM
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I mostly collect N, T & E cards and I have not really noticed that prices have really changed all that much lately...some are higher than they have been like e105's, but that happens when 4 or 5 guys are collecting the set at the same time.
I don't really follow Topps cards and had no idea that a Topps Clemente sold for 1/2 million dollars. It seems unreal that someone paid that much for a baseball card. A Topps card to me is more of a keepsake than a collectible. Like a 1978 Topps Jose Cruz or something that I have 5 of in vg/e. Rob
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Old 07-01-2016, 07:18 PM
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First PWCC, now JustCollect. When will Probstein start one of these threads?
Right! Further perpetuates hobby wide conspiracy!
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  #11  
Old 07-02-2016, 07:02 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 4815162342 View Post
First PWCC, now JustCollect. When will Probstein start one of these threads?
Whenever he wants to would be my guess. There is nothing wrong with good hobby subjects to discuss. There is something wrong with asinine comments (not yours Daryl) but that is par for the course sometimes.

That being said, Scott makes some good points. Just because the cards the TPGs say aren't trimmed and have pointy corners are now worth way more than they probably should be, it doesn't mean you can't collect. Just go a few grades lower, and as Glyn pointed out yesterday, that lower and mid tier of cards haven't really popped that much. I honestly don't think those prices will get dragged up too much either. And they sure haven't as of yet from my firsthand experience.

ps... I should add that I removed a comment plus have given out an infraction for breaking forum rules. No member is allowed to follow another member around the forum giving them a hard time for no reason. If they do they will be suspended. That being said, constructive criticism or opposing views are always good debate and appreciated.
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Old 07-02-2016, 07:40 AM
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Post war baseball is what I do for a living.

The crazy prices have knocked me for a loop. I don't have tons of high grade stuff, but more than my fair share of mid grade. Not sure if the $$$ can stay where they are, but I am of the belief that they aren't going to come back down to where they were. I have seen an increase in volume of sales and price realized even on mid grade 50's & 60's.

Here is the crazy part: HOfer & tougher cards always sell. Recently I have had more 50's & 60's commons sell. I think the higher price/visibility of the "ones everyone wants" has pulled some more casual collectors in the fold and they are purchasing what they can afford and WANT to collect.

Not everyone can put together a '52T Master Set but a midgrade '53T set is very doable.
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Old 07-02-2016, 09:07 AM
JustCollectVP JustCollectVP is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Laxcat View Post
Recently I have had more 50's & 60's commons sell. I think the higher price/visibility of the "ones everyone wants" has pulled some more casual collectors in the fold and they are purchasing what they can afford and WANT to collect.

Not everyone can put together a '52T Master Set but a midgrade '53T set is very doable.
This is exactly the point that I was trying to make. There are plenty of alternatives for those that can't or won't play in the "game." It wasn't about anything other than pointing out that the hobby is strong and there are so many areas that collectors can participate in that don't cost an arm and a leg and where the prices aren't doubling from week to week.

It is easy to complain or find issues in the hobby. It is easy to be jealous or jaded. It is easy to feel or voice contempt. It is much harder to put the garbage aside and find time to really enjoy collecting . . . whatever it is that you collect.

I had a hobby friend that had a most amazing collection . . . one that dwarfed most others. Whenever we had hobby discussions, he focused and directed his complete attention and excitement to the collections and discussions of all the others in the group. It was genuine and whether someone collected some obscure prewar issue or was working on a Chipper Jones POG collection, he was fascinated and beamed his infectious smile, demonstrating that we ALL have the same "collector gene" in our DNA. I am pretty sure that he found much enjoyment by sharing in our enjoyment. I miss that. I miss him.
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  #14  
Old 07-02-2016, 10:15 AM
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Quote:
I miss him.
+1

-Al
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  #15  
Old 07-02-2016, 10:16 AM
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I don't do too much in cards so I am pretty much just watching in amazement. It would be cool if this were to get some national media traction. That could exacerbate the situation even more.

As long as this doesn't interfere with the few things that I collect, I will be fine with it. I don't want to be in the position of having stuff that I have exponentially rise in value and tempt me to sell. Would be a nice problem to be faced with I suppose, but I would rather collect in peace.

Tom C
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Old 07-02-2016, 10:23 AM
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i have most of what I want and most of what I have is not the crazy price stuff. I generally now do opportunity buying. I saw some low priced lots in Leon's auction and picked them up. If a mid grade 67 set less the Mantle, Carew, B Robinson and Seaver comes up, I might play as that is the next in the backward sequence I'm looking for.
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Old 07-02-2016, 10:34 AM
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I am wondering if the OP's real goal is to increase the prices of Heather Thomas memorabilia

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Old 07-02-2016, 10:42 AM
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Quote:
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I am wondering if the OP's real goal is to increase the prices of Heather Thomas memorabilia

Better her than Justice Thomas . . . unless your collection focus
is on dunces.
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Old 07-02-2016, 10:42 AM
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I agree that people claiming they can't afford to collect any more is pretty ridiculous. I can't afford a Koufax or Clemente 8 any more, but nice mid grade examples are still affordable and readily available. And if those are out of your price range recent events shouldn't impact you at all because you weren't buying even at the old prices.

I understand the outrage if people truly believe the market is being manipulated. I don't think anyone can say with certainty that it's not at least possible something shady is going on. But I believe most of the people who are the most upset feel that way either because they sold key cards before the price increase, or failed to step up for the cards they wanted and are now priced out.
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Old 07-02-2016, 10:50 AM
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I agree completely. There are plenty of cards that are collectible and affordable. I was fondling this rookie this morning remembering the days I was collecting Topps in the late 60s, very cool. And this Harrington's (to get back to pre-war) I picked up from a table mate a few years ago at the National. Nothing expensive here but still pretty neat cards for a grown up kid. (or an "ungrown" up kid too)

Quote:
Originally Posted by pokerplyr80 View Post
I agree that people claiming they can't afford to collect any more is pretty ridiculous. I can't afford a Koufax or Clemente 8 any more, but nice mid grade examples are still affordable and readily available. And if those are out of your price range recent events shouldn't impact you at all because you weren't buying even at the old prices.

I understand the outrage if people truly believe the market is being manipulated. I don't think anyone can say with certainty that it's not at least possible something shady is going on. But I believe most of the people who are the most upset feel that way either because they sold key cards before the price increase, or failed to step up for the cards they wanted and are now priced out.
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Old 07-02-2016, 11:06 AM
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+1

Quote:
Originally Posted by pokerplyr80 View Post
I agree that people claiming they can't afford to collect any more is pretty ridiculous. I can't afford a Koufax or Clemente 8 any more, but nice mid grade examples are still affordable and readily available. And if those are out of your price range recent events shouldn't impact you at all because you weren't buying even at the old prices.

I understand the outrage if people truly believe the market is being manipulated. I don't think anyone can say with certainty that it's not at least possible something shady is going on. But I believe most of the people who are the most upset feel that way either because they sold key cards before the price increase, or failed to step up for the cards they wanted and are now priced out.
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Old 07-02-2016, 12:30 PM
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Better her than Justice Thomas . . . unless your collection focus
is on dunces.
+1
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Old 07-02-2016, 12:38 PM
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I don't visit as much as I used to, I guess we are allowing political commentary on the main page now?
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Old 07-02-2016, 12:43 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ALR-bishop View Post
I am wondering if the OP's real goal is to increase the prices of Heather Thomas memorabilia

Al:

I'm guessing most my age remember these posters...



She's weathered a bit (heavy drug usage in the early 80's and far too much surgery) and she'd still ignore me...

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Old 07-02-2016, 12:52 PM
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Better her than Justice Thomas . . . unless your collection focus
is on dunces.
There are strict rules about political commentary. It's pretty much zero tolerance. Thanks....
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Old 07-02-2016, 01:07 PM
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She looks dreadful IMO.
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Old 07-02-2016, 01:10 PM
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She looks dreadful IMO.
I was trying to be polite... But at 58, she could look worse.
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Old 07-02-2016, 01:19 PM
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I was trying to be polite... But at 58, she could look worse.
Yes, my take is that if she had left herself alone she would most likely look better.
She doesn't even remotely resemble her former self.
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Old 07-02-2016, 01:32 PM
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I agree with most of what Scott posted in the OP. My card budget is what I can sell. But even on that budget I can collect most anything except a handful of postwar cards. In the last year I've acquired all of these:






I am very pleased with all of them. It is fun to have them and not worry about pops and auctions.

The key is fun: some folks need to pull the sticks out of their keisters and try to have some fun with card collecting. I've even gotten into some modern stuff. There are great cards of great players from the last 30 years that cost less than a visit to Mickey D's.





PS: Scott, Al, I miss him too...
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Old 07-03-2016, 04:53 PM
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Well anytime we get to see Heather Thomas in a thread, it's a good day. Now Helen Mirren has aged even better than Ms. Thomas

Now, having said that, we have issues with a hobby, which seems to mirror society in that the top 1 percent of cards is getting out of reach of most of us. Not all, obviously but most of us. But we can all enjoy our collections exactly as they are, especially if we were collecting to return to those days when we were young.

Now, when I started in this hobby circa 1977, the 20 year rule meant we were collecting cards which were easily identifiable -- the 1957 set and we knew those players. Today, the 20 year rule and there are many people coming back from the halcyon days, means they don't even remember every set which came out during their collecting days. They remember Jordan, etc. more than any baseball player though

But you know, there are tons of affordable cards out there and we can build nice collections of old or new cards. I spent most of the morning pricing Dirk Novitski (sic) cards and most of his base cards are between 50 cents and 2 dollars. And you know, you can build a pretty nice collection of his cards for pennies on the dollar. That is just one example of affordability.

And there is a basketball HOFer whose RC is all of a dime. Well, not that he was famous here because his real fame came in international play:. Sarunas Marciulionis

But we can't all afford the cards which are in Leon's show case at my show but we can all look and enjoy at which goodies he has for sale. But at the last two shows, he was probably surprised by how many lower priced cards he sold.

But here is the thing, we can't belittle those collectors who can afford what a Bruce Dorskind did when he was living (I bet he is completing three deals right now whilst I'm typing this).

I enjoy selling my 25-50 cent cards to those people working on Rangers/Mavs/Cowboys/Stars collections and I enjoy selling 1960's commons and high numbers to people working on those sets. And that is something else we need to remember as a hobby, how to keep the average collector interested.

I believe in affordable price points for admission, tables and auto guests. That's why I only charge $1 at the door and at our synagogue show, we give away so many cards that we are always in need of more (Shout out here to Todd Marcum who has sent out 2 care packages in the past month)

You should see some of the prices we've been quoted on auto guests. I get that players active and retried like to be paid for their time, and rightly so, but most of those are pricing themselves out of meeting their fans. That's their right and that is only getting worse as today's players are now getting paid millions for being an average major leaguer.

Look I get what everyone is saying but I prefer to enjoy looking at cards old and new. And I love seeing what I have not seen before.

Rich
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Old 07-03-2016, 05:45 PM
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Scott,

Thanks for posting!

I appreciate your thoughts and insight on collecting and tends.
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Old 07-03-2016, 08:00 PM
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ValKehl ValKehl is offline
Val Kehl
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Join Date: May 2009
Location: Manassas, VA (DC suburb)
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Rich, well said!
Val
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