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  #1  
Old 08-20-2018, 09:02 PM
SetBuilder SetBuilder is offline
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Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth View Post
Bitcoin has come partway back to earth. You're right, but you could have put together a sky is falling scenario in 2010 too. How many people thought it was insane when AMZN hit 500?
The US is $22 Trillion in debt and running $1T deficits at the tail end of one of the longest economic expansions on record. Cost to service that debt is already $500B+ a year, almost bigger than Medicare and the military. Consumers have more debt today than they did in 2006-7 before the collapse. A lot of it is unsecured debt for things like subprime autos and discretionary items.

Everyone binged on debt while rates were near zero.

Just keep that in mind.
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  #2  
Old 08-20-2018, 09:04 PM
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The US is $22 Trillion in debt and running $1T deficits at the tail end of one of the longest economic expansions on record. Cost to service that debt is already $500B+ a year, almost bigger than Medicare and the military. Consumers have more debt today than they did in 2006-7 before the collapse. A lot of it is unsecured debt for things like subprime autos and discretionary items.

Everyone binged on debt while rates were near zero.

Just keep that in mind.
I read the gloom and doom folks all the time. They always sound persuasive. I'm just saying people who listened to them have missed out on unbelievable growth. I can't believe Stansberry and his ilk have a single paying client left with his track record.
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Last edited by Peter_Spaeth; 08-20-2018 at 09:05 PM.
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  #3  
Old 08-20-2018, 09:08 PM
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I read the gloom and doom folks all the time. They always sound persuasive. I'm just saying people who listened to them have missed out on unbelievable growth.
That's fine. I've been bullish the last few years. Some people are permanently pessimistic and it can be annoying, I agree. But they may be broken clocks soon. This is the longest period between recessions. Ever.

Can you honestly tell me this expansion is going to continue indefinitely?
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Old 08-20-2018, 09:09 PM
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That's fine. I've been bullish the last few years. Some people are permanently pessimistic and it can be annoying, I agree. But they may be broken clocks soon. This is the longest period between recessions. Ever.

Can you honestly tell me this expansion is going to continue indefinitely?
No, corrections are always inevitable, but rule no. 1 has always been don't try to time the market or you'll get burned, no?
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Old 08-20-2018, 09:11 PM
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No, corrections are always inevitable, but rule no. 1 has always been don't try to time the market or you'll get burned, no?
Don't try to time the market, but don't buy at the top either. There is a subtle difference between the two.
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Old 08-20-2018, 09:12 PM
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Don't try to time the market, but don't buy at the top either. There is a subtle difference between the two.
That's the whole point, you can't tell a top without hindsight. People thought Dow 10K was a top.
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Old 08-20-2018, 09:14 PM
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That's the whole point, you can't tell a top without hindsight. People thought Dow 10K was a top.
You can sort of tell. When the price of something goes up 500% in a relatively short period of time it's probably not wise to buy and bet on another 500% rise.

Gravity.
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  #8  
Old 08-20-2018, 10:15 PM
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Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth View Post
No, corrections are always inevitable, but rule no. 1 has always been don't try to time the market or you'll get burned, no?
This is the exact advice that I got from my money manager.
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  #9  
Old 08-20-2018, 09:51 PM
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Consumers have more debt today than they did in 2006-7 before the collapse. Everyone binged on debt while rates were near zero.
I know I did... on baseball cards!!!
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Old 08-20-2018, 10:08 PM
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I know I did... on baseball cards!!!
You bought baseball cards on credit?
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  #11  
Old 08-20-2018, 10:14 PM
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You bought baseball cards on credit?
I have, a T206 Plank in 2006, a Merkle/ Brown Lenox in 2004, a Merkle/ Pirate in 2013, and a 1914 CJ Mathewson in 2016.

And they all turned out to be good moves (well, 3 out of 4 anyway).
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  #12  
Old 08-21-2018, 09:54 AM
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You bought baseball cards on credit?
Was a joke. Guess I should’ve added a smiley face at the end of the sentence. ��

Last edited by ruth_rookie; 08-21-2018 at 09:55 AM.
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