Probstein123 Still amazed he is in business

[T205 GB]

How in the heck does he get these grades or people that bid roughly 50% of the time and retract 108 times and not be banned from bidding. It doesn't just smell like fish anymore

http://www.ebay.com/itm/T205-Gold-Bo...item53f4ec1fe7

http://www.ebay.com/itm/T205-Gold-Bo...item53f4ec28b3



Btw PSA F'ed that grade up on the T205 PSA 6 Kirb White #18903185 by about 4 grades. Talk about reach arounds

[thehoodedcoder]

there was a thread no more than 2 weeks ago about this. id append to that thread. it may get more attention.

http://www.net54baseball.com/showthread.php?t=160673

kevin

[Matthew H]

.

[T205 GB]

Originally Posted by thehoodedcoder

there was a thread no more than 2 weeks ago about this. id append to that thread. it may get more attention.

http://www.net54baseball.com/showthread.php?t=160673

kevin

I am well aware of that one and all the ones from a while back as well. This pertains to keeping him on the front line as an issue and bad seller

[scooter729]

Originally Posted by T205 GB

I am well aware of that one and all the ones from a while back as well. This pertains to keeping him on the front line as an issue and bad seller

If you want people to see "him" as a bad seller, you might want to put his name in the subject line. For many folks who simply read thread titles or don't click on the links (or check this thread months from now when the eBay links are dead), you'd never know what seller you're talking about.

The only reason you can even complain about this is because of the semi-transparent bidding system that ebay employs.

With AHs you can't see anything ... you think this would be more or less attractive to shills?

[chaddurbin]

i was following a '48 signed musial a couple weeks ago, last day bidding it got up to around $320...a pretty good price as prior ones sold for $200-$220. seller cancelled the auction early, next week it was in a probstein auction and ended a couple days ago for $580 . now suddenly 3 more musials has popped up because of this artificially inflated auction. lots more examples like this i've stopped bidding with this guy.

Quan Nguyen

[pepis]

Originally Posted by chaddurbin

i was following a '48 signed musial a couple weeks ago, last day bidding it got up to around $320...a pretty good price as prior ones sold for $200-$220. seller cancelled the auction early, next week it was in a probstein auction and ended a couple days ago for $580 . now suddenly 3 more musials has popped up because of this artificially inflated auction. lots more examples like this i've stopped bidding with this guy.

What that really means is that he has a strong customer following and they
dont mind spending extra dealing with him instead of venturing with some
unknown source.

[Matthew H]

Originally Posted by pepis

What that really means is that he has a strong customer following and they
dont mind spending extra dealing with him instead of venturing with some
unknown source.

Buying from Rick is buying from an unknown source. Most of his items are consignments. Items that aren't consignments may be the only ones not being shilled at this point.

I would like to be proven wrong. Can any board member own up to a recent consignment with Rick to which they can provide a testimonial? I'd like to see one higher then usual price that can be proven an honest sale... Anyone?

[Qcards]

I have consigned many items with Rick and he gets good results almost every time.

I had a vintage non sport set sitting in my eBay store for over a year at $999 with lots of low ball offers.

I pulled it and sent it to Rick and in a 7 day auction he got over $1,000 for it. I have no interest in shilling my items, I want them sold.

Not sure why this guy keeps getting bashed, he has been nothing but straight with me.

[h2oya311]

I have purchased a few items from probstein with no issues, although I have seen some "higher than expected" prices. I attributed it to his better than average auction design, low opening bids ( which drives up interest) and organization/timing of auctions (for instance, having several HOF rookies ending within minutes of one another).

I once purchased a 1957 team issue PC of Frank Robinson for $60 from him( thinking I had overpaid) and sold it about four months later for $100.

You certainly don't see his stuff go for cheap, but I'm not sure if I would attribute it to shill bidding, unless I see evidence to the contrary.

[Matthew H]

Thank you Qcards for the response. I'm not saying that he's a necessarily a bad seller, just that he doesn't seem to care about shilling. That's already been proven by the multiple recent threads.

I buy stuff from him too, I'm just much more careful then usuall.

Derick, i'm not so sure about the listing design theory. He usually writes a one line description followed by a large multi-colored ad asking for consignments. The scenario you listed above with multiple hof can happen to anyone. He doesn't always do that. It's not like he's organizing auctions and sending notices like pwcc. He's just listing a bunch of random stuff, just like everyone else.

In the cases where I've won his auctions it seems pretty cut and dry, to me. Sometimes I've paid "too much" and then there's a couple of OJs I got from him that I'm pretty sure I could get 50% more then I paid if I wanted to.

[ngrow9]

Originally Posted by bubblebathgirl

The only reason you can even complain about this is because of the semi-transparent bidding system that ebay employs.

With AHs you can't see anything ... you think this would be more or less attractive to shills?

I realize this is probably a fruitless response, but one of the greatest downside risks of shilling in any auction system is that you outbid the field and get stuck with your own item. Should that happen on eBay, the actual out of pocket loss is rather minimal, basically just the listing fees (if any) and portion of the final price kept by eBay (around 9%). However, the odds of winning your own lot on eBay are quite low, because you can always retract a bid. So despite any transparency, there is little risk to shilling on eBay.

Conversely, should you outbid the field in an AH auction, your out-of-pocket loss will be much more significant, as you will owe both the hefty consignment fee as well as the bidder's premium. You could easily end up losing 1/3rd of the value of the item in the end. Moreover, it is much harder (if not impossible) to retract a bid.

Ergo, even though eBay may be a little more transparent, overall I believe the risk of shilling is greater on eBay than at an AH for the simple reasons that the risk of winning your own lot is much lower due to retraction, and the cost of winning your own lot is much lower than at an AH.

[ullmandds]

I used to buy from him somewhat regularly...but will definitely think twice about doing so these days.

[CardTarget]

The guy takes GREAT pictures in every one of his auctions. Front pics, back pics, high quality.

It's not his job to police his auctions to make sure that the consigners cousin isn't bidding. That's unrealistic.

He's doing a good job and earning his commission - unless there is evidence that he's directly involved leave the guy alone.

[Ronnie73]

I probably won about 10 cards from Rick over the past couple years and was happy with the prices I paid. When I put a max bid in, its usually not the max i'm willing to pay for the card. Usually I don't win and get outbid but for the ones I do win, I won at great prices. Rick does tend to get higher prices on his auctions so if your a last second bidder that bids double what your willing to pay, don't be surprised if you end up over paying. If you are usually the first bidder and put a high bid amount in, i'm sure your bid will be bumped up to its max. I do believe Rick has nothing to do with the bids in question. I do believe some of the consigners are doing it so they get top dollar and not lose any money. The biggest problem is that ebay alows so many bid retractions. I've been on ebay for 14 years and never did even one bid retraction. Retractions should only be allowed to be fixed by ebay customer service and I guaranty after you deal with their customer service, you'd never do a retraction again. As far as PSA overgrading some cards, they do, they also undergrade some. What everyone has to remember, the grade is just someone's opinion. It even says that on the PSA website. Most of us here on this board know when something has been overgraded and thats good but the few that don't and only see a number inside a piece of plastic, thats when it gets bad. If everyone keeps buying the card and not the holder, there shouldn't be a problem. Lets see where the bidding ends for the Kirb White and if people are still buying the holder.

[tschock]

Originally Posted by ngrow9

I realize this is probably a fruitless response, but one of the greatest downside risks of shilling in any auction system is that you outbid the field and get stuck with your own item. Should that happen on eBay, the actual out of pocket loss is rather minimal, basically just the listing fees (if any) and portion of the final price kept by eBay (around 9%). However, the odds of winning your own lot on eBay are quite low, because you can always retract a bid. So despite any transparency, there is little risk to shilling on eBay.

Conversely, should you outbid the field in an AH auction, your out-of-pocket loss will be much more significant, as you will owe both the hefty consignment fee as well as the bidder's premium. You could easily end up losing 1/3rd of the value of the item in the end. Moreover, it is much harder (if not impossible) to retract a bid.

Ergo, even though eBay may be a little more transparent, overall you are much more likely to be subjected to shilling on eBay than at an AH for the simple reasons that the risk of winning your own lot is much lower due to retraction, and the cost of winning your own lot is much lower than at an AH.

"I realize this is probably a fruitless response" - It is. Providing valid reasons pro AH and anti-ebay are never considered. Higher prices realized through auctions than on ebay are obvious proof of shill bidding (sarcasm). There can be no other explanation (even though many have been offered).

And again you hit on the obvious question/concern that Paul never has addressed. There is little to no downside to shilling on ebay. If you get caught, you get "banned" until you create a new account or get someone else to do your bidding (pun intended). Beyond the token banning by ebay, has anyone ever been prosecuted for any of these nefarious activities? If so, great, and I stand corrected. But if not, then STFU about ebay's "transparency". It is a law with no teeth. Much like "keep right except to pass".

And regarding ebay's so-called transparency,
http://pages.ebay.com/help/policies/...l-bidding.html - Often what appears to be shill bidding isn't a violation. If there is evidence of shill bidding, we will take action, which may include listing cancellation or referral to law enforcement. However, our privacy policy prevents us from disclosing the details of our investigation to other members, including the person who reported the issue.

So if someone is banned or an auction is taken down, how does anyone actually know it was because of shill bidding? Or how does anyone know shill bidding is even happening? Ebay basically implies in the first statement that y'all are just stupid buyers and couldn't recognize a shill bidder, or shill bidding isn't going on, which makes transparency a moot point then anyway, right?

[bigwinnerx]

Originally Posted by Qcards

I have consigned many items with Rick and he gets good results almost every time.

I had a vintage non sport set sitting in my eBay store for over a year at $999 with lots of low ball offers.

I pulled it and sent it to Rick and in a 7 day auction he got over $1,000 for it. I have no interest in shilling my items, I want them sold.

Not sure why this guy keeps getting bashed, he has been nothing but straight with me.

Seems like you missed your chance to shill your auction up to $1500.

[tcdyess]

Ok, now I'm thoroughly confused. I am following an auction from him on a card that I want, but now have no clue whether or not I should bid.... meh.....

http://www.ebay.com/itm/360586885146...84.m1423.l2649

[tschock]

Originally Posted by Ronnie73

I've been on ebay for 14 years and never did even one bid retraction. Retractions should only be allowed to be fixed by ebay customer service and I guaranty after you deal with their customer service, you'd never do a retraction again.

+1 ... That is the crux of the matter, and part of the fix, IMHO.

[probstein123]

Gentlemen....
I find it puzzling that people with a strong sense of morality have no problem trashing people publicly with nothing more than accusations...

re shilling....
currently, we sell over 100,000 auctions a year, I'm the only person on my staff
that knows jesse haines is a HOF er...meaning, I'm crazed busy dealing with the operation of making sure my consignors items are presented correctly...plus I have 5 kids !! repeat: 100,000+ auctions annually...

on shilling, it takes place all over the industry...its a problem everywhere and except people dealing directly on net54 or buying cards at shows....
within ebay, sellers do not have access to bidders high bids...this differs with many auction houses where they have access to see who is bidding....
shill bidding is much worse in the auction house world in my opinion...

I always hear people want proof, well here is an example...
we just sold this item for $12,000 on ebay
" 1942 St Louis Cardinals Team Signed Baseball w/ Musial Slaughter + JSA LOA AUTO " ...the winning bidder triple bid against himself 3 times...meaning he was willing to pay more...did I get on my bat phone and find a bidder to jack up the price ...no ? Mike Q , posted on the thread, mike, have I have prompted you to bid on my auctions ?
we block bidders that we think are problematic...

we get strong prices primarily because we have created a culture where buyers know they can find great items either with realistic BIN's or auction of high end items that start at 99 cent...

as ebays largest seller , we will always be a target...anyone can say anything in a thread ...if you do see problematic activity, please call me at 973 747 6304 and I will address it ..thanks, rick

[ngrow9]

Just to be clear, my post was simply a response on the eBay v. AH issue generally, and not at all related to Probstein's auctions specifically. I've won one of Rick's auctions before, thought that I paid a very fair price for the item (below my max bid, in fact), and have nothing but good things to say about the experience.

[ullmandds]

I suppose bottom line is don't bid more than you want to pay for an item...seeing as shilling has become the norm?!

[HRBAKER]

Rick,
In your opinion how many bid retractions does someone need
to become a problematic bidder? I would disagree purely from
a non-scientific and opinion based standpoint that there is
more shilling @ AHs than on eBay. The stakes and downside
seem to be much greater there than eBay. Could be wrong.

Jeff

[Matthew H]

Originally Posted by probstein123

I always hear people want proof, well here is an example...
we just sold this item for $12,000 on ebay
" 1942 St Louis Cardinals Team Signed Baseball w/ Musial Slaughter + JSA LOA AUTO " ...the winning bidder triple bid against himself 3 times...meaning he was willing to pay more...did I get on my bat phone and find a bidder to jack up the price ...no ? Mike Q , posted on the thread, mike, have I have prompted you to bid on my auctions ?
we block bidders that we think are problematic...

That's a fascinating example... only 2 bidders above the 300$ mark, the underbidder only seems to bid on your stuff...

I guess the moral here is: we can be as paranoid as we want but we'll never get any definitive answers from eBay or AHs.

I think Peter hit the nail on the head with his last post.

[rainier2004]

I dont follow anything else except Cracker Jacks and Rick has soldquite a few 1914s recently well below market value fwiw.

[probstein123]

I'm not convinced that this is what shillers do....
I get real-time emails when bidders retract and I click and look and I've never seen a consignor retracting....I would think that the placement of ceiling bids is more problematic....and by the way , I have LOADS of buyers that greatly dislike the fact that the MAJORITY of ebay items for auction have super high reserves,
they have limited time and the MOSTLY buy from me or PWCC cause they know they can win items without reserves....gee, where was all that shilling on the 1914 CJS ? meanwhile there is another thread somewhere with accusations that shilling happened on 1914 CJS meanwhile several of them went of low...can't be both ways

[36GoudeyMan]

I join the earlier poster who said that you should bid what you are willing to pay. If its shilled beyond your top bid, then it will come back around again and perhaps your same bid on a re-listing might get it that time. Shilling is a very bad thing for sellers and buyers alike, as shown by the hesitancy to buy from Probstein despite 80,000+ feedbacks and 100% rating (IIRC). I've bought from him, and gotten the items I wanted at my price, or lost the auction. Never an issue. I don't consign to eBay sellers, as I can sell on my own. If I did, I wouldn't shill because of the risk that I'd win my item back, and that's not the purpose of selling. If I want to ensure a minimum price acceptable to me, I'll ask for a reserve, and sell it at that, or not at all..

[yanks12025]

Did that person actually pay the $12,000 for the ball. No way someone would be that stupid and pay that much.

[probstein123]

Did that person actually pay the $12,000 for the ball. No way someone would be that stupid and pay that much.
==> they paid....musial items are super hot and this ball is very rare...

[christopher.herman]

Originally Posted by ullmandds

I suppose bottom line is don't bid more than you want to pay for an item...seeing as shilling has become the norm?!

+1

[tcdyess]

ok, but the 22 bids are from 3 bidders - 1 bid once, 1 bid twice, and the other has bid 19 times so far... hmmmm

[smtjoy]

Originally Posted by tcdyess

Ok, now I'm thoroughly confused. I am following an auction from him on a card that I want, but now have no clue whether or not I should bid.... meh.....

http://www.ebay.com/itm/360586885146...84.m1423.l2649

Humm yea I would not be worried bidding on this card..........

Top bidder-
30-Day Summary
Total bids: 136
Items bid on: 92
Bid activity (%) with this seller: 94%

Underbidder-
30-Day Summary
Total bids: 43
Items bid on: 7
Bid activity (%) with this seller: 62%

[chaddurbin]

imo t206 and cj commons usually were consigned by collectors and bidded by other pre-war collectors. most of the shill biddings would occur with modern stuff or low pop graded where there are more speculators and investors, would be more advantageous there where you can create a market for a card or simply get a buzz or hype it up.

[dodgerfanjohn]

Originally Posted by 36GoudeyMan

I join the earlier poster who said that you should bid what you are willing to pay. If its shilled beyond your top bid, then it will come back around again and perhaps your same bid on a re-listing might get it that time. Shilling is a very bad thing for sellers and buyers alike, as shown by the hesitancy to buy from Probstein despite 80,000+ feedbacks and 100% rating (IIRC).

Well this leads into the problem that Paul(Bubble Bath Girl) points out, which is......these prices that have been shilled up get recognized as legit sales in price guides or even for people doing a ebay search on past sales....and they are not in fact. But prices potentially and falsely get nudged up higher overall due to "ghost" sales where a shiller is the primary bidder.

[ullmandds]

yes John...this is a huge problem...it's become like a runaway train...how do you stop it?!

[obcmac]

I am 100% convinced that shilling goes on in Rick's auction. I don't have any evidence whether it's Rick or not. At the same time, I will continue to bid on his cards that interest me. I bid at a level that I'm happy winning the card. I have yet to find a seller that makes me pay more than I am willing to pay. I hope he gets more CJ's.

Mac Wubben

[T205 GB]

Originally Posted by probstein123

I'm not convinced that this is what shillers do....
I get real-time emails when bidders retract and I click and look and I've never seen a consignor retracting....I would think that the placement of ceiling bids is more problematic....and by the way , I have LOADS of buyers that greatly dislike the fact that the MAJORITY of ebay items for auction have super high reserves,
they have limited time and the MOSTLY buy from me or PWCC cause they know they can win items without reserves....gee, where was all that shilling on the 1914 CJS ? meanwhile there is another thread somewhere with accusations that shilling happened on 1914 CJS meanwhile several of them went of low...can't be both ways

Rick just because the item is shilled doesn't mean it will go for a lot of $. If the shiller bids over max and retracts to remain below the max and bumps it up to there over the period of a week or so combined with a lack of interest or cold spell in the market could give you a low price. They won't over bid and win their items.

[T206DK]

Originally Posted by probstein123

I'm not convinced that this is what shillers do....
I get real-time emails when bidders retract and I click and look and I've never seen a consignor retracting....I would think that the placement of ceiling bids is more problematic....and by the way , I have LOADS of buyers that greatly dislike the fact that the MAJORITY of ebay items for auction have super high reserves,
they have limited time and the MOSTLY buy from me or PWCC cause they know they can win items without reserves....gee, where was all that shilling on the 1914 CJS ? meanwhile there is another thread somewhere with accusations that shilling happened on 1914 CJS meanwhile several of them went of low...can't be both ways

most people who would engage in shilling would probably not be using an account that is recognizeable. Alot of people have their friends and relatives bid on their stuff....it makes it harder to trace. I know of flea marketers that have more than 10 accounts on Ebay that are always in use

[Republicaninmass]

I've never seen a consignor retracting

How about one bidding?

[probstein123]

Originally Posted by T206DK

most people who would engage in shilling would probably not be using an account that is recognizeable. Alot of people have their friends and relatives bid on their stuff....it makes it harder to trace. I know of flea marketers that have more than 10 accounts on Ebay that are always in use

some days we get 0 bid retractions and very rarely do I ever get more than a few in a day...I don't think this is prevalent on our auctions...

[T206DK]

Originally Posted by smtjoy

Humm yea I would not be worried bidding on this card..........

Top bidder-
30-Day Summary
Total bids: 136
Items bid on: 92
Bid activity (%) with this seller: 94%

Underbidder-
30-Day Summary
Total bids: 43
Items bid on: 7
Bid activity (%) with this seller: 62%

Kirk to Enterprise .....yellow alert !!

[Sean1125]

Originally Posted by Matthew H

Buying from Rick is buying from an unknown source. Most of his items are consignments. Items that aren't consignments may be the only ones not being shilled at this point.

I would like to be proven wrong. Can any board member own up to a recent consignment with Rick to which they can provide a testimonial? I'd like to see one higher then usual price that can be proven an honest sale... Anyone?

I will sort through my previous listings and see what I can come up with.

I DO NOT and WILL NOT EVER bid on my own auctions. I had 2 Dan Marinos and 2 Elway Rookies end for $160... I was only asking $60 for the 4 cards locally. I also have had some partial sets that I estimate in the 1500-1800 range end 2500-3200

[Matthew H]

Originally Posted by obcmac

I am 100% convinced that shilling goes on in Rick's auction. I don't have any evidence whether it's Rick or not. At the same time, I will continue to bid on his cards that interest me. I bid at a level that I'm happy winning the card. I have yet to find a seller that makes me pay more than I am willing to pay. I hope he gets more CJ's.

Mac Wubben

I've never paid more than I was willing to either... actually I'm not really sure how doing that would be possible, without a gun pointed to my head.

It's fine paying a maximum amount that's comfortable, but isn't it nice to get a good deal once in a while?

Let's say a card routinely sells for 1000$. One pops up on eBay and a shill bid takes it from 600$ to $900... you win it for 905.... you should have won it for 605... are you comfortable with that?

[probstein123]

fyi, we have over 31,000 items in our ebay store, I own more than half of them

[Matthew H]

Originally Posted by probstein123

fyi, we have over 31,000 items in our ebay store, I own more than half of them

Do you own half of your auctions too?

[Matthew H]

Originally Posted by Sean1125

I will sort through my previous listings and see what I can come up with.

I DO NOT and WILL NOT EVER bid on my own auctions. I had 2 Dan Marinos and 2 Elway Rookies end for $160... I was only asking $60 for the 4 cards locally. I also have had some partial sets that I estimate in the 1500-1800 range end 2500-3200

Thank you for sharing that.

[iwantitiwinit]

I read both of Rick P's posts and I do not see anywhere where he declared that he is NOT shilling. did I miss something? If I am wrong mea culpa but I didnt see it. If I was going to refute something I would state it directly. I am not accusing anyone of anytihng just stating I dont see that statement anywhere.

[lsutigers1973]

Arguing with Rick is no different than arguing with bubblebathdude. He is always right until proven wrong and then he runs away.

Notice how he puts blinders on and acts like no one is shilling. His first response in this thread is full of outright lies. He has been proven a liar numerous times on CU and runs away until someone praises him in another thread.

He has been caught saying it is only him. Then later says it was someone on his "staff".

When questioned about so many of his cards in the PSA 8 to 9 range that end up selling and being relisted less than a month later but a grade or two higher, he said no one sees the cards but him prior to listing. Then we find out that the original winner and new consignor just happen to live in the same town as Rick.

Then he got caught saying he never submitted cards to PSA, but a week later throws out a story about submitting cards to PSA himself.

How about the monster Super Bowl auto book that has sold 3 times, won by the same bidder and relisted for a 4th time?

The 1975 Topps Nolan Ryan PSA 8 with a monster stain that has been sold at least 3 times and won by the same bidder and relisted almost immediately?

There are plenty more but the PSA threads always seem to disappear any time Sir Rick is questioned.

I digress. I need a beer.

[probstein123]

iwantitiwinit , I'm not shilling