WAR Question:

[Peter_Spaeth]

How does Bobby Grich come out so far ahead of Biggio and Alomar, among others, speaking of WAR? 7th best second baseman of all time?

[AGuinness]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

How does Bobby Grich come out so far ahead of Biggio and Alomar, among others, speaking of WAR? 7th best second baseman of all time?

I can't answer this to the underpinnings of WAR, and I'm certainly not well versed in Grich, but I'll do my best to share the context that I do know.

First off, there are two versions of WAR, produced by Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference, and they have some differences in how they get to where they get. Grich is 8th on BR's WAR list for 2B with 71.1 WAR (Alomar is 14 with 67.1, Biggio is 15 with 65.5). Grich is 8th on Fangraphs with 69.2 (Biggio is 10 with 65.8, Alomar is 11 with 63.6).

My understanding of WAR is that it offers an approximate value on a player's contributions, albeit the way it is presented sometimes would make one thing it is hard and fast to the decimal accurate. On a single season WAR total, my understanding is that there is around a .5 margin of error (possibly a bit more), so a player who has 6.5 WAR hasn't necessarily had a superior season to another one who has 6.0 WAR.

So my reading of that would lead me to believe that players with similar WAR totals for their career are all in the same boat, which would be the case for Grich, Alomar and Biggio. They all had about the same total contributions between defense, offense and baserunning.

In that light, it might be more useful to look at the different tiers of 2B, based on WAR. Using just Fangraphs' list, I might put Hornsby and Eddie Collins in the first tier, followed by Lajoie and Morgan in tier 2. After that, things get muddied, starting with number 5 all time with Charlie Gehringer (78.6 WAR) all the way down to Joe Gordon at 16th (60.6 WAR) - and due to service time limitations, and I'd easily include Jackie Robinson in this tier (17th, 57.2 WAR). This third tier could be broken up into two, easily, maybe three, or all grouped together. I don't think small differences in WAR should be hard and fast when it comes to ranking players.

[Peter_Spaeth]

I hear you, but I still don't know why Grich is even in that company. He didn't have much power, didn't hit for average, won a few GGs early but nothing after that, 1800 career hits with a .266 average.

[AGuinness]

Oh, here's a parallel: also think of WAR like ABV when it comes to beer. Beer may be listed at 6.5%, but there is a margin of error in that around .5%. WAR is the same.

And the best news is that having a beer will either help illuminate the value of WAR or help you forget about it entirely.

[AGuinness]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I hear you, but I still don't know why Grich is even in that company. He didn't have much power, didn't hit for average, won a few GGs early but nothing after that, 1800 career hits with a .266 average.

I'm with you on that, although I'll readily admit I know so little about Grich in the first place. But I'd suppose it means that WAR suggests Grich was more valuable than some of the numbers suggest - perhaps due to the era/ballparks he played in?

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I hear you, but I still don't know why Grich is even in that company. He didn't have much power, didn't hit for average, won a few GGs early but nothing after that, 1800 career hits with a .266 average.

Compare his numbers to the other second basemen of his day. Compred to them he had quite a bit of power. He was a far superior all-around player to his contemporaries. Bill James has been a huge supporter of Grich forever.

[D. Bergin]

That Bobby Grich must have been one hell of a defensive wizard. In 1973 he batted .250 with 12 HR's, 50 RBI's, 82 Runs Scored, 17 SB's (9 times caught), .760 OPS and he led the AL in WAR for Positional Players according to BR (by kind of a lot).

I'm guessing with WAR it's kind of a positional thing to. If there's a shortage of other quality 2nd baseman, it's going to boost your replacement level.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by D. Bergin

That Bobby Grich must have been one hell of a defensive wizard. In 1973 he batted .250 with 12 HR's, 50 RBI's, 82 Runs Scored, 17 SB's (9 times caught), .760 OPS and he led the AL in WAR for Positional Players according to BR (by kind of a lot).

I'm guessing with WAR it's kind of a positional thing to. If there's a shortage of other quality 2nd baseman, it's going to boost your replacement level.

There was a guy named Carew also playing.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Grich's lifetime WAR is nearly double that of Steve Garvey's. Sorry, I know all the rap on Garvey, but that just does not square with reality IMO.

[rats60]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Grich's lifetime WAR is nearly double that of Steve Garvey's. Sorry, I know all the rap on Garvey, but that just does not square with reality IMO.

Agree totally.

[nat]

Grich had a bunch of little things going for him. None of them really dramatic, so they don't catch your attention, but add them all up and he ends up being really valuable. Some of them have already been mentioned. He was a good defensive player, especially when he was young. Another is that he drew a lot of walks. That will help make up for his low batting average. By comparison, he had about the same ability to reach base as Pete Rose. (Although obviously Rose played longer and so reached base more times.) He had good power for a second baseman; not "set HR records" kind of power, but a lot more than your ordinary skinny middle infielder of the 1970s. Indeed, he led the league in HRs once. Also, being compared against other second basemen helps. Sure, he's being compared to Rod Carew, but he's also being compared to Bucky Dent.

Players who are good at everything but not outstanding at any particular thing are easily overlooked. The hall of fame, for example, has had a terrible time recognizing them. They finally got one right with Alan Trammel, whose case sabermetic types have been championing for a long time. Actually, a comparison between Trammell and Grich may be instructive. Trammell was the better fielder and Grich was the better hitter, but in both cases they were the sum of a bunch of little parts. Contrast this with guys like Jim Rice or Tony Gwynn, who will catch your attention because there's one particular skill that they excel at.

And yes, there's also a margin of error around WAR. Grich had 71.1, Trammel had 70.7. That's a tie. Seeing thing in tiers instead of a ranking is a good idea.

Since WAR is just a number that Grich and Trammel weren't flashy players doesn't matter to it, all it knows is that a bunch of relatively little numbers (which reflect their fielding, their ability to reach base, their power, and so on) can add up to one big number.