Derek Jeter will break Pete Rose's Hit Record

[BigJJ]

I just have a feeling. For the record.

[springpin]

I think this is the critical year. If he stays healthy enough to get 200+ hits he will have over 3,500 and slightly more than Wagner. The Yankees are heading for some lean years, and Jeter may be about all the fans can cheer about. Then I hope he gets a three-year contract to get another 500 hits. At 4,000 hits, he gets a final two- year deal to collect the record. This is what I am hoping. But if he doesn't get 200 this year, I don't think he will do it, and the Yankee owners won't bankroll him to try.

[slidekellyslide]

Does he want it?

[CMIZ5290]

No way.....

[barrysloate]

Won't even make 4000. Should finish around 3700-3800.

[BigJJ]

Interesting Springpin, I think you're right. had not broken it down by contracts, and with consideration for the lean team, and the lower salaried Yankee team under Hal and Hank. This makes it more of a shot as hes not moving teams, and the Yanks' first priority is winning of course.

Dan, I think he wants it bad, and just doesnt want to talk about it. Jeter is a Fierce competitor, just super quiet about the desire. I think he's one thousand percent going for it.

[BigJJ]

Maybe when he breaks the record, a number on the forum, -might- stop ridiculously comparing Jeter to Robin Yount and Paul Molitor. I think some anti-Yankee bias is affecting objectivity.

[CMIZ5290]

Interesting we're talking about Yankees. Wouldn't it be curious to think how many homeruns Mantle would have hit if not for nagging injuries and extra activities not related to the game?

[HRBAKER]

Originally Posted by BigJJ

Maybe when he breaks the record, a number on the forum, -might- stop ridiculously comparing Jeter to Robin Yount and Paul Molitor. I think some anti-Yankee bias is affecting objectivity.

I would rather hope he would consider that a compliment.

[mcgwirecom]

Originally Posted by CMIZ5290

Interesting we're talking about Yankees. Wouldn't it be curious to think how many homeruns Mantle would have hit if not for nagging injuries and extra activities not related to the game?

Or how many homeruns would Ruth have if he actually was in shape!

[springpin]

I said Wagner and I meant Speaker. It will take another six years to do it. Rose played until he was 44. Jeter is 38. It could happen, and I hope so.

[ctownboy]

I don't think Jeter will make it.

Currently he is 952 Hits away from tying Rose for the All Time record. He would have to average 159 Hits each of the next six years to tie Rose.

If you look at the All Time Hit leaders, a lot of them performed well in their late 30's but they seem to have hit a wall at 40.

Jeter suffered an ankle injury last Fall and he may or may not start the season on the DL because he is still recovering from that injury.

If Jeter were to get 180 Hits in each of the next two years then he would need to only average 148 Hits the next four years. Problem is, Father Time hits ALL players at some point.

If Jeter misses time at the start of this year and then starts having nagging injuries which either keeps him out of the line up because he is on the DL or his Manager keeps him out of some Games just to give him some rest then it is likely he wont get 180 the next two years or average 148 the following four years.

It is also entirely possible that the Yankees decline to a point where continuing to play through injuries and rehab just isn't worth it to Jeter.

David

[jboosted92]

Originally Posted by ctownboy

I don't think Jeter will make it.

Currently he is 952 Hits away from tying Rose for the All Time record. He would have to average 159 Hits each of the next six years to tie Rose.

If you look at the All Time Hit leaders, a lot of them performed well in their late 30's but they seem to have hit a wall at 40.

Jeter suffered an ankle injury last Fall and he may or may not start the season on the DL because he is still recovering from that injury.

If Jeter were to get 180 Hits in each of the next two years then he would need to only average 148 Hits the next four years. Problem is, Father Time hits ALL players at some point.

If Jeter misses time at the start of this year and then starts having nagging injuries which either keeps him out of the line up because he is on the DL or his Manager keeps him out of some Games just to give him some rest then it is likely he wont get 180 the next two years or average 148 the following four years.

It is also entirely possible that the Yankees decline to a point where continuing to play through injuries and rehab just isn't worth it to Jeter.

David

If he was around 3800 now, id say hed have a SHOT...you have to remember, Rose was getting 200, 200, 200, 200, 200, 200....with NO down years...Roses prime vs Jeter prime isnt comparable... Id be shocked in 3 years, if Jeter is 1. still playing, and if so, he gets more than 120 hits that year

[howard38]

.

[E93]

Originally Posted by CMIZ5290

Interesting we're talking about Yankees. Wouldn't it be curious to think how many homeruns Mantle would have hit if not for nagging injuries and extra activities not related to the game?

"I'd be rich and famous if I weren't unknown and poor."
Tom Russell

[mattsey9]

A current Yankee will break Rose's record, but not Jeter. (At least not first)

Ichiro has 3,884 career hits counting his NPB career. Should he match his 2012 total of 178 hits in each of his next two seasons, that would give him 4,240 for his career. He'd easily break Rose's career mark if he can stay healthy for three more seasons.

[z28jd]

Originally Posted by mattsey9

A current Yankee will break Rose's record, but not Jeter. (At least not first)

Ichiro has 3,884 career hits counting his NPB career. Should he match his 2012 total of 178 hits in each of his next two seasons, that would give him 4,240 for his career. He'd easily break Rose's career mark if he can stay healthy for three more seasons.

It's hard to equate hits in Japan to MLB hits when Matt Murton holds the single season hits record over there.

I would have to include the 427 hits Pete Rose had in the minors, if we are going to include records in lesser leagues

Jeter is not getting the record. As someone mentioned above, he willy likely start the year on the DL and they aren't going to play him every single day once he gets back, plus he will be 39 this season. If the Yankees are bad, and he struggles with his health, this could be the end of the line for him. He needed a cortisone shot today, so that is always a concern

[dgo71]

Originally Posted by z28jd

It's hard to equate hits in Japan to MLB hits when Matt Murton holds the single season hits record over there.

Thank you voice of reason! Japan is upper AA-to-AAA caliber at best. Everyone not named Ichiro who has come over has been pretty bad. Nomo and Kuroda have had some success but nothing of "superstar" caliber. For every Ichiro there are 20 Tsuyoshi Nishiokas...and there's a reason for that.

[jcmtiger]

Originally Posted by BigJJ

I just have a feeling. For the record.

I don't think so, no even My Man Cobbs 4191.

Joe

[ctownboy]

According to Baseball Reference.com, here are the top 10 players with the most Hits including and after the age of 40. The last number is Plate Appearances.

1. Cap Anson 823 2992
2. Pete Rose 699 2955
3. Sam Rice 551 1906
4. Luke Appling 488 1930
5. Honus Wagner 479 1989
6. Carlton Fisk 473 2011
7. Jim O'Rourke 458 1678
8. Dave Winfield 413 1722
9. Carl Yastrzemski 410 1762
10. Julio Franco 409 1619

The average for this group is 520 Hits. However, since only three of the 10 had over 500 Hits it is most likely that under 500 Hits is more reasonable.

So, if Jeter has 3304 Hits now and were somehow able to get 200 Hits in each of his next two seasons, he would stand at 3704. If he were to turn 40 and perform like the average of the above 10 players (520 Hits) then that would give him 4224 Hits by his age 44 season.

However, if he performed like the average of the bottom seven on that list (447 Hits) then Jeter would have 4151 Hits by his age 44 season. So, he would be 44 and still be 105 Hits away from tying Rose.

So, the ONLY way it looks like Jeter is going to break the record is if he gets 200 or more Hits in each of the next two seasons and THEN performs better than the average of the top 10 guys to play after the age of 40.

David

Jeter just has to be willing and able to play as much as Rose did going forward. Jeter needs only 72 hits in the first 78 games of 2013 to be ahead of Rose as of their respective 39th birthdays.

Rose played until he was nearly 45 1/2 years of age, however, and for Jeter to catch Rose he'd need probably need to play to the same age, which would mean 7 more seasons. Rose's numbers his final 6 seasons were pretty dismal (.261 BA, .315 SA, 5 total home runs), and I'm guessing Jeter wouldn't hang around if his stats were that poor, but who knows. One thing Jeter has going for him that Rose didn't is the availability of the DH. I can't see Jeter ever being a full-time DH, but I could see him playing Short for 2-3 more years while DHing twice a week, then playing First for a few seasons while DHing 2-3 times a week. If he stays healthy enough to do that while hitting .280+, then he has a shot at passing Rose.

[MVSNYC]

Hmm, not sure. i would love to see him do it, but this ankle and his age are concerning me (he's just a few months older than i am for the record ).

I'm with Barry, probably around 3800 +/-

I'd love for him to push to 4000. "IF" he gets there, i'm sure he'll power thru to reach for the record.

[Scott Garner]

Great topic!

I believe that Jeter is trying to reach at least 4,000 hits. When you get to this point it really is rarified air.

Will he pass Rose? IDK, but I'll be pulling for him to try. Records are meant to be broken. Ask anyone who has played the game, FWIW...

[bigtrain]

Rose's hit totals in his last four years 121, 107, 107, 52. He hung them up at 45. Can Jeter pass Rose? Probably, if he wants to hang around until he's 45 years old. That's not going to happen.

[D. Bergin]

I'd like to see Jeter get to 4000. Anything past that and I think he'd just be hanging on.

The ankle is healing slowly, so it's just another sign that he IS aging.

We saw Jeter slow down quite a bit when he was suffering nagging injuries starting a few years ago, and he eventually rebounded from that.

I think it will be even harder to bounce back this time.

[Frozen in Time]

Originally Posted by CMIZ5290

Interesting we're talking about Yankees. Wouldn't it be curious to think how many homeruns Mantle would have hit if not for nagging injuries and extra activities not related to the game?

"If ifs and buts were candied nuts what a wonderful Christmas it would be"!!!

However, if we play that game then a few of the biggest factors with regard to Mantle not achieving his obvious potential, in my opinion, would be: 1) the penicillin injections (every day, every 3 hrs for 2 weeks) in an attempt to arrest a football-related injury that resulted in osteomyelitis (1946), 2) the early death of his father (1952 ) and 3) the knee injury in the '51 WS.

Before the injury to his left shin in an early season football practice session, Mickey or "Little Mickey" as he was known then weighed around 125 pounds soaking wet. After he left the hospital in the fall of 1946 he had lost over 30 pounds and his body was covered in boils - a combination of the prolonged infection and treatment. Photos from 1947 depict a remarkable transformation, Mickey was now well over 160 pounds - all of the new weight pure muscle. One potential consequence of this hypertrophy (perhaps induced by the unusual concentration and length of the penicillin treatments) might be that his ligament and tendon development simply did not match his muscular growth and could, in part, explain the unending series of injuries that defined his career.

The early death of his father also had a very profound effect on Mickey. Mickey loved, respected and feared his Dad. There is no question in my mind had his father lived and was around for Mickey through most of his playing days that many of the distractions and much of the bad behavior (drinking, womanizing and not taking care of himself) would have been greatly curtailed.

And finally, the knee injury in the 1951 WS - which was simply the start of a series of crippling injuries that robbed us from witnessing some of Mickey's greatest physical attributes.

So, I've fallen in the trap of "ifs and buts" in an attempt to offer some possible explanations for one player's (my childhood hero) shortcomings. Of course, all of us are ultimately responsible for our lives and for how we respond to each and every situation.

But I always wonder 'what could have been". What would the final numbers have been if that baby-faced Rookie with that magnificent body who went from the right-side of the plate to 1ST in 3.1 sec and from the left-side of the plate in 2.9 sec, who consistently hit the longest HRs ever recorded as easily left-handed as he did right-handed and who could beat out a drag bunt by several yards had not suffered all those injuries, had not been so distracted by women and alcohol and had taken better care of himself.

In my opinion, a healthy, focused and more mature Mantle might have been the greatest ballplayer ever. But then again, we are all who we are and therein lies the problem with the "if and but" game.

[doug.goodman]

No way.

His career average for hits in a year is 193 (not including 1995), if he were to continue at that rate, which even the biggest Jeter fan will admit is impossible, he would pass Rose during the last game of the season in 2017, when he is 43.

That is not going to happen.

Doug


PS - I would love to see him do it, even though he's a F'n Yankee

PPS - Just an FYI - Rose got hit #1 the day before his 22nd birthday, Jeter had 80 hits on his 22nd birthday, so they started at similar ages.

PPPS - at the point in Rose's career where Jeter is now, Rose only had 68 more hits than Jeter does, but he wasn't coming off a broken ankle.

[talkinbaseball]

i'm rooting for him, but you see how long his ankle is taking to heal.
Derek will not just hang around and go for the record, he has way too much class to do that.

john guzze

[packs]

Depends how much Steiner offers him.

[71buc]

I don't see him ever willing to be anything other than The Yankee Shortstop. I think that title and the rings mean more to him than Pete's record. Since he won't play short into his 40s without being a detriment to the team I doubt he hangs around and embarrasses himself. His place in baseball history has been established. As soon as he is no longer to play the 6 he will exit with the same class he has displayed his whole career. I hate the Yankees but respect Jeter much more than the tragic comedy Pete has become.

[iwantitiwinit]

Absolutely no way in my opinion. He'll never be able to finnish up at shortstop and I think it will be almost impossible for him to dh or play given the Yankees propensity to have high dollar large producers at those positions. I also think there is a good chance his productivity this year will be limited, I can see him on and off the field a lot this year, 2 weeks on several days of rest etc. Without a 180-200 hit year this year I don't think he even gets to 3750.

[prewarsports]

I absolutely HATE the Yankees but I have to admit, in the last decade I have come around on Jeter. I have to admire the work ethic and I like it that despite playing in New York and being a superstar he has not had much bad press. We all know he sleeps around, but not being married thats his choice. No weapons charges, no reports of infidelity or steroids etc. So, the numbers speak for themselves and I have to admit that he is a model player.

Having said that, there is no way in hell he breaks Rose's record unless he wants to go out as a shadow of his former self just to do it which I think would tarnish his legacy more than the hit record would help it.

On the Ichiro front, whether its "MLB" or not, he will be the all-time hit leader when he retires. People will be quick to discount it, but you cant take away the hits he accumlated.

[Deertick]

Originally Posted by E93

"I'd be rich and famous if I weren't unknown and poor."
Tom Russell

"If my Aunt had balls, she'd be my Uncle"

[BBSD]

He'll break it playing for the Astros.