Market for Pre War Cards -How far down is down?

Dear Fellow Board Members

Market Softening- It is difficult for us to discern price movements because we only bid on 150 items per year. Most of these items are quite expensive (thus a limited collector market). However, our sense is that prices on high grade type cards,better grade E & T cards are off 20% from their 2008 peak. Common Goudeys and in Cracker Jacks, even in PSA 8/ SGC88, are also down 20-25% from their mid 2008 levels.

It appears that mid-grade common cards are off 35% and lower grade more common cards from the 30s, 40's are down close to 40's. Cards from the 50's and 60's, especially those which are not investment grade (8+) are off 50-70%.

Other than the uncertain economic climate, to what do you attribute the market drop? If June 2008 was an index of 100, and we are now somewhere between 65-80- when do you see a positive change?

It seems to us that some of the large investors have pulled back. The off the wall prices on E Bay's Buy it Now (2-3x) reality give the collector/investor a sense that the market is risky, even if it is only a hobby.

Do you believe that the FBI investigations have had any impact on card prices? Has it acted as a deterrent from encouraging new collectors to invest in expensive baseball cards?

Finally, what items (sets, cards, condition rarities) appear to be bucking the trend? How do you see the pre WWII baseball card market in 2011-2012?

Thanks for sharing your thoughts.

Bruce Dorskind
America's Toughest Want List
bdorskind@dorskindgroup.com

[caramelcard]

Bruce,

T207s definitely seem to be recession proof. Check out some of the toughies on ebay tonight. I wish this set would soften!

Rob

[sox1903wschamp]

Originally Posted by caramelcard

Bruce,

T207s definitely seem to be recession proof. Check out some of the toughies on ebay tonight. I wish this set would soften!

Rob

+1

[nolemmings]

I would agree that more than anything else, it is the economy. As for the statement:

Obama doesn't know which end is up.

, I would ask that you keep your political opinions to yourself, or expect to be challenged. Unless you are prepared to debate economics. I might suggest that you kick back on your couch tuned into FOX news, wring your hands with the obligatory "the sky is falling" chant, phone or e-mail some other "real Americans" and "patriots", and find someone new to hate.

[Tim Kindler]

Todd,
I think we would all agree that the economy ceratinly has alot to do with many of the issues being discussed in this thread. Who's fault for these things occurring could also be debated. Unfortunately there are MANY, MANY factors why the global and US economies are down. I agree that the statement made about President Obama (Yes, I did call him President Obama, because even if I didn't vote for him, I still respect him and the office of the Presidency) by shaunsteig was not neccessary because again this board should be about our hobby, but I also have to take issue with the fact that since you challenged someone on thier issue, then I have to challenge you on the fact that I watch Fox news and hope you can find someone new to hate.

Todd, That last sentence sounded kinda childish didn't it. What I should have said was that I watch Fox news and take offense to people stereotyping me because I watch that channel, just as someone from the other side of the political table should be offended if someone spoke unkindly of them because they watched ABC or CNN. The bottom line is that we are all Americans who are free to agree and disagree with each other in our feelings and debates on issues suchas President Obama, President Bush, or whomever might be running the country, but let's keep our threads focussed on Baseball and Baseball Cards. I apologize for getting off topic and hope that Todd, myself, and everyone else continues to enjoy collecting and worry about politics somewhere else.

[Griffins]

well said Todd.

[Cat]

Originally Posted by nolemmings

I would agree that more than anything else, it is the economy. As for the statement: , I would ask that you keep your political opinions to yourself, or expect to be challenged. Unless you are prepared to debate economics. I might suggest that you kick back on your couch tuned into FOX news, wring your hands with the obligatory "the sky is falling" chant, phone or e-mail some other "real Americans" and "patriots", and find someone new to hate.

You want others to keep their political opinions to themselves and then imply that anyone who may disagree this President's economic policy is not a "real american" or "patriotic." That's BS.

[slidekellyslide]

Stay on track fellas. Keep the political talk out of this please.

[nolemmings]

On the contrary Cat, you will not find me implying that you or anyone else is not a real American or a patriot, whatever your political views. You will scarcely find such rhetoric uttered from the left. You will find it, however, repeatedly gargled from the right, especially the Palin and tea party followers who don't miss an opportunity to invoke their "real american values" and preach to the rest of us what must be done to prevent this country from becoming communist, nazi, and/or whatever vile name of the week gains popularity.

[jb217676]

Why did this thread have to get political? And also, all us members here aren't American. Let's keep all these discussions to cardboard for a hoser like myself from Canada eh!

[vintagechris]

One reason I believe card prices are down is the fact it is getting harder to sell cards at a profit on ebay. I think in 2008 people would pay more for cards because they still felt like they could flip them for profit.

With ebays higher fees, I believe more and more people are buying less because they can't flip for profit.

Ebays fees also force many sellers to list items at higher fixed prices. Prices that may be higher than market value. This then causes people to not shop as much.

Used to be people would go on ebay everyday and look at the auctions. I think less people do that now because there are fewer and fewer auctions.

I don't think this is the sole reason for lower prices, but I do strongly believe it has something to do with it.

Especially with higher dollar cards on ebay. Very hard to flip those for a profit.

I am enjoying the dip actually so I can get some stuff I want at discounts.

[Tim Kindler]

I think many of the thoughts in this thread have entered all collectors' minds over the past few years. But I believe just which of these points entering a collectors mind is based upon what type of collector and what budget that collector has to work with.

To let you know where my viewpoint is coming from, I would consider myself a mid-level collector based upon what I can afford. By mid-level, I mean that I will spend $25 to roughly $8,000 on a card that I might really want, though most of the time, my average cost on a card is about $350.
I certainly am not one who can spend tens of thousands of dollars on a card. I do consider myself blessed knowing that I can spend more than $10 at a time on a card. Let's face it, many collectors can only afford $10-$20 at a time on something...and there is nothing wrong with that. We all collect what we enjoy and hopefully what we can afford without breaking the bank. That's what makes collecting enjoyable for all of us.


The following are some of my thoughts and what I think most mid-level collectors probably think; though I could be way off.

For example, concerning the prices on high grade or extreme rarity cards, most collectors (including myself) aren't concerned because they know they would never be able to afford them anyway. Becasue of this, I think most of us aren't concerned about the Feds stepping in and making an impact.

I have actually enjoyed the fact that prices have come down in recent times. Again speaking for mid to low range budget collectors out there, it has made collecting more affordable and enjoyable. As a lover of the game and baseball history, I collect primarily for the love of the hobby, not for an investment. I think it is great that some of those who are only in the hobby for financial gain have left because of the economy and down turn in the prices of cards. Oh don't get me wrong, I have some valuable cards and rarities that I don't want the bottom to fall out of, but for the most part, I am enjoying the cheaper E and T cards that are now out there for collectors with budgets like me to get. I am a little fearful that my larger investments will turn out to be duds, but just like the weather and most aspects of life, I don't think I can control it.

I don't see anything after WWII bucking the trend except for the tried and true sets such as 52 Topps. I do think that the E cards will buck the trend because their availability to buyers seems to be drying up in my opinion. For example, I collect E98s. Over the past 2 years, I have seen only a handful of them for sale and usually just one at a time, such as in the last Legacy auction. ( AND it happened to be a high grade Mathewson that went for over $16 Grand which I could never afford anyway). Even REA only offedered one for sale in its annual auction. I hardly ever see them on the BST and the BIN ones on ebay are WAY over priced and most of them have been on there for months. I also think that all vintage cards at lower grades will hold there value because there will be more collectors at those levels with the current economic conditions.

Just a few of my thoughts,
Tim Kindler

[shaunsteig]

I'm a recent returnee to collecting, so am in little position to comment on the state of the market compared to 2-, 5-, or even 10- years ago. But I'd find it hard to believe that there's any single factor greater than the current state of the economy. Obama doesn't know which end is up.

p.s. not calling you stupid -- of course -- just quoting our 42nd president's campaign slogan.
p.p.s. I have recently perused some of my old Sotheby's auction catalogs from 15-20 years ago, and the prices then would be considered ridiculously low by today's standards.

[tbob]

Bruce- the market for T207s seems strong based on the healthy prices for both stars and commons tonight on ebay so I have to disagree with you somewhat, at least on this set. I believe this is a break-up of the set from Legendary and if so, the winning bidder is making a ton of money by breaking it up. There were scarcer cards (but not the scarcest) going for 2-4x prices I thought they would and commons were pretty strong too.
I don't think you can generalize. Yes, some sets have had cards going for less but some go for more. I think it is just a state of flux right now for different sets and timing is essential.
tbob

[Matt]

It depends on what market you're looking at - demand is somewhat down due to some folks have diminshed recreational funds, which has an impact on more common issues (e.g. Goudeys, Topps) but most of the tougher issues that aren't readily available have stayed steady. At least it seems like anything I have an interest in picking up has not dipped in price

[egbeachley]

The first thing to determine is if the June 2008 prices were true free-market prices (i.e. no shilling).

[joeadcock]

Not accounting for certain issues(i.e. T207), it seems that trend is definitely down for prewar card prices. I have looked up alot of VCP prices recently, and they are down over last many months.
I would suspect, it will stay down(may get even worse), mostly because of the economy(job loss, decreased income, uncertainty of future). Agree with above, this is most likely reason.