REA observations

[ullmandds]

Impressive hammer on the m116 wags...an AUTHENTIC Jordan rookie outsells a mid grade #????? Will the A be coming soon to a PSA 10 near you?

Strong prices on goudey/delong gehrigs. T206 cobbs seem to be coming back to earth.

What do y'all think?

[jsfriedm]

I thought 9K for a nice PSA 4 1933 Gehrig #160 was pretty weak actually. Heritage sold two of them in Nov 22 for $11,700 and $11,100.

[ClementeFanOh]

Pete- I went for the collar last night. I was stunned at an E93 Wiltse (4.5) that
was around $150 maybe, when I went to bed. Looks like it sold for $625. Also,
a nice looking T206 Hulswitt PSA 1 Carolina Brights barely topped $1k.
Maybe we can hear from some winners?

Trent King

[iwantitiwinit]

I don't think there were very many bidders at all for many of the T206s offered. I put in some low bids on many of the lower graded off backs and lost all but 1 by only the next bid increment. I fell asleep too early and woke up around 1:10 tried to up my bids because there were several I thought were a good deal but the lots had closed.

[BioCRN]

Originally Posted by iwantitiwinit

I don't think there were very many bidders at all for many of the T206s offered. I put in some low bids on many of the lower graded off backs and lost all but 1 by only the next bid increment. I fell asleep too early and woke up around 1:10 tried to up my bids because there were several I thought were a good deal but the lots had closed.

1 OJ and 3 T206's, lost all 4 by the next bid increment. That said, I was already at the high point on my max bids and wouldn't participate in further bids even if I was awake for it (East Coast guy that goes into work at 630am over here). All 4 were bid up/over during the extended period.

I was a little surprised I lost all of the T206's. They're as popular as ever, but the market is absolutely saturated with them. Buyers are still there, though.

[rugbymarine]

It's not pre-war, but it's the only lot I seriously pursued. 1954 Bowman Willie Mays. I fell in love with the rough cut, as well as the fatter-than-usual borders and better-than-usual centering for this card, so I was bound to overpay for it.

[Belfast1933]

I made a minor pick up, loved the graphics on this and the lineup card including DiMaggio and Gehrig was a cool bonus.

Congrats to all winners

[parkplace33]

Originally Posted by ullmandds

Impressive hammer on the m116 wags...an AUTHENTIC Jordan rookie outsells a mid grade #????? Will the A be coming soon to a PSA 10 near you?

Strong prices on goudey/delong gehrigs. T206 cobbs seem to be coming back to earth.

What do y'all think?

For the most part, I was unimpressed with the hammer prices. I get it is a monthly, but a lot of cards went much lower than I thought they would.

[ullmandds]

Originally Posted by jsfriedm

I thought 9K for a nice PSA 4 1933 Gehrig #160 was pretty weak actually. Heritage sold two of them in Nov 22 for $11,700 and $11,100.

i thought the 34 gehrig was pretty strong...i didn't notice the 33.

[puckpaul]

I picked two tougher T205 variations and got distracted or could have had a couple others. Good prices for buying I thought. Have had to chase those the past year. Overall some stuff weaker than it’s been. The psa 3 52 Mays , I got topped but the same card went for $16k two years ago, sold for only $10.5k last night. Very well centered, nice looking card… thought it was a good deal but I didn’t want to pay more right now.

[NYYFan63]

Originally Posted by rugbymarine

It's not pre-war, but it's the only lot I seriously pursued. 1954 Bowman Willie Mays. I fell in love with the rough cut, as well as the fatter-than-usual borders and better-than-usual centering for this card, so I was bound to overpay for it.

That’s a beauty! Congrats!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[NYYFan63]

I picked up this nice Chance Red portrait PSA 2…




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[Republicaninmass]

Originally Posted by jsfriedm

I thought 9K for a nice PSA 4 1933 Gehrig #160 was pretty weak actually. Heritage sold two of them in Nov 22 for $11,700 and $11,100.

It's a 3-5k card before covid. What people just heard of Lou Gehrig?

[3-2-count]

In my opinion T206's which are centered and carry a very high eye appeal, most noteably hall of famers still bring top money when they come up for sale.

Many of the examples which ended last night in the Encore auction were either off center or lower grade.

As a comparison I won a T206 Red Cobb portrait in PWCC last night which looked pretty sharp for its grade. It didn't go cheap

[jggames]

It's the first time I've seen a Carolina Brights go for under $500 - it's probably in 2 pieces, but for the most part a cool card.

[Rhotchkiss]

I won this. I am working on the set, but I love the stamp on the back, which I had never seen. These W601 PCs are so rare that it’s tough to say whether I over or under paid. I was watching two other cards - the Blue M116 Wagner and the 1933 Delong Gehrig. I think prices on both were very strong/solid

Regarding t206s, especially rare backs: PWCC is dumping them into the market place with these auctions. I think the next one has like 5-6 brown Lenox in one auction; you rarely see more than 2 per year across all auctions. I think they way they are doing these auctions is just plain stupid, at least from a sell standpoint; good for buyers. And there was that random Massachusetts auction with all the Carolina Brights not long ago. I think the market has been flooded with rare back t206 and prices reflect that. Way too much supply.

[Johnny630]

PWCC Stuff went soft last night...a Nice 53 Topps Mantle SGC 7 sold for $21,000 well off it's peak....it will be nice having a normalization of pricing relative to the state of the economy.

[Belfast1933]

Originally Posted by rugbymarine

It's not pre-war, but it's the only lot I seriously pursued. 1954 Bowman Willie Mays. I fell in love with the rough cut, as well as the fatter-than-usual borders and better-than-usual centering for this card, so I was bound to overpay for it.

Ian has one of the best eyes for quality in the hobby... this Mays is worth a modest premium, no doubt!!

[BeanTown]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

I won this. I am working on the set, but I love the stamp on the back, which I had never seen. These W601 PCs are so rare that it’s tough to say whether I over or under paid. I was watching two other cards - the Blue M116 Wagner and the 1933 Delong Gehrig. I think prices on both were very strong/solid.

Since that was my consignment, you under paid!! Ha. I’ve never seen another stamp like that either and I wasn’t excited to see it pop up in their monthly auction along with my 1926-29 Plain back Exhibits of all HOFers.

The W601s and other Postcards series like the Souvenir shop and a team issue with Christy Mathewson went way cheaper than expected. On the flip side, my winnings were at a decent value.

[babraham]

Originally Posted by puckpaul

Overall some stuff weaker than it’s been. The psa 3 52 Mays , I got topped but the same card went for $16k two years ago, sold for only $10.5k last night. Very well centered, nice looking card… thought it was a good deal but I didn’t want to pay more right now.

I was watching the 52 Mays as well and thought the same thing.

I ended up winning two cards...56T Aaron and Spahn for my 56T HoFer subset.

[jsfriedm]

Same way I felt about the 1933 Gehrig #160 and the N28 Kelly - nice cards, but I can be patient and expect them to go even lower.

[Leon]

I missed the stamp on back postcard but did grab this one. Not sure if it's the one you are talking about but it has the cool factor.

Originally Posted by BeanTown

Since that was my consignment, you under paid!! Ha. I’ve never seen another stamp like that either and I wasn’t excited to see it pop up in their monthly auction along with my 1926-29 Plain back Exhibits of all HOFers.

The W601s and other Postcards series like the Souvenir shop and a team issue with Christy Mathewson went way cheaper than expected. On the flip side, my winnings were at a decent value.

[Exhibitman]

I was a little surprised to see the plain BG ESCO cards there too, but I think there is a risk of any card not named "Ruth" or "Gehrig" getting lost in the big book, so maybe not a bad strategy. I tend to ask for the Encore on most of my consignments--my stuff isn't big book caliber and I would rather it not get lost.

I think the prices were solid. At $1200 and $1080, respectively, the Sisler and the Speaker were the highest prices on PSA graded examples ever recorded. The Waner was a bargain at $600; I nearly bid on it but decided to stick to my focus right now (Ruth, Robinson and Pele) unless I find something for resale. I am guessing you bought it out of Heritage in 2018 for $840? Thing is, those variations are so tough that it is not really a predictable market; just need to throw it up and see where it lands. There hasn't been a recorded sale of a PSA graded Speaker since 2018 or a Sisler since 2020.

Howzabout you put up the Gehrig and give the market a real test?

[molenick]

Originally Posted by jsfriedm

Same way I felt about the 1933 Gehrig #160 and the N28 Kelly - nice cards, but I can be patient and expect them to go even lower.

Are we seeing the card market evolving from FOMO to FOJI (fear of joining in)? Not so much for the rarest cards but for cards that we expect to see again in another auction in the near future.

[jsfriedm]

Originally Posted by molenick

Are we seeing the card market evolving from FOMO to FOJI (fear of joining in)? Not so much for the rarest cards but for cards that we expect to see again in another auction in the near future.

I'm still in, it just seems like we're at a point in time where the potential benefits of patience outweigh the risks.

[molenick]

Yeah, I think most of us are still in. I just couldn't think of a good acronym.

But maybe we are on the cusp of changing from "I better buy it now because it will cost more later" to "I'd rather take my chances and see if I can get it for less later".

I am not talking about cards that only show up once in a blue moon...it's more for cards that we can expect to see in another auction in the near future (and if not exactly the same card, one in a similar condition).

[Exhibitman]

Sounds about right to me, Michael. I was talking about that exact thing with a longtime board member/dealer yesterday. Mainstream stuff is softening. Oddball stuff is hit and miss, same as ever. Rare stuff is rare stuff: when it comes up, the right buyers will pay up, same as ever.

I think we are for sure seeing some sanity creep back into the market for abundant mainstream cards, even pre-war. That said, I don't see the equilibrium prices as too far off simply because there are so many people waiting to get in on bigger names and cards whose price consciousness only goes back a decade or less and who don't have the deep benches that longtime collectors have. If a low-grade Goudey Ruth slips by 30%-50%, many of those buyers will be excited to get in and get their first card, even if it is still a multiple of what it was a decade ago. My perspective is similarly flawed by my time collecting: what I think of cheap hasn't been that for a very long time.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

Sounds about right to me, Michael. I was talking about that exact thing with a longtime board member/dealer yesterday. Mainstream stuff is softening. Oddball stuff is hit and miss, same as ever. Rare stuff is rare stuff: when it comes up, the right buyers will pay up, same as ever. I think we are for sure seeing some sanity creep back into the market for abundant high grade mainstream cards, even pre-war.

Maybe we are seeing more dicscerning collectors? High eye appeal, regardless of grade, keeps doing well. The middle of the road and lower eye appeal specimens, are soft. Then there's the stuff that is rare, and as you said, it's still hit and miss.
.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

Sounds about right to me, Michael. I was talking about that exact thing with a longtime board member/dealer yesterday. Mainstream stuff is softening. Oddball stuff is hit and miss, same as ever. Rare stuff is rare stuff: when it comes up, the right buyers will pay up, same as ever.

I think we are for sure seeing some sanity creep back into the market for abundant mainstream cards, even pre-war. That said, I don't see the equilibrium prices as too far off simply because there are so many people waiting to get in on bigger names and cards whose price consciousness only goes back a decade or less and who don't have the deep benches that longtime collectors have. If a low-grade Goudey Ruth slips by 30%-50%, many of those buyers will be excited to get in and get their first card, even if it is still a multiple of what it was a decade ago. My perspective is similarly flawed by my time collecting: what I think of cheap hasn't been that for a very long time.

The good news/bad news is that percentages are much more powerful on the way down. A piece that jumps 100% but then later falls 50% is right back where it started. So percentage-wise, a little bit goes a long way on the way down.

Math!!

[Exhibitman]

Yep, math is an unforgiving mistress. But a piece that jumps 500% and falls 50% is still 2.5x the previous price. A PSA 8 Dr. J RC was $800 before the rise, peaked at $9,000, and has fallen back to about $2,000. Even if you got in at $800 and didn't sell into the bubble, that's still a very nice ROI in four years.

[Natswin2019]

I know t206s have already been talked about but I bid on 3 this auction and only won 1. All 3 were common players with common backs, 2 in a PSA 3 and 1 in an sgc 3.5. The weird thing about it was the 2 psa cards sold for 250$ each and well over 100$ more than recent comps while the SGC 3.5 that I won didnt even sell for a 100$. Probably doesnt mean anything but I thought it was weird to have very comparable cards in both grade and eye appeal sell for such a difference.

[BeanTown]

Originally Posted by Leon

I missed the stamp on back postcard but did grab this one. Not sure if it's the one you are talking about but it has the cool factor.

Yes. That’s it. Someone got a great deal.

[yanks87]

I was shocked and surprise to grab a t206 Cy Young for under $500, though an authentic, it is a unique OP and it was a hole in my set, so I am THRILLED at the lower prices!

[BobbyStrawberry]

Originally Posted by yanks87

I was shocked and surprise to grab a t206 Cy Young for under $500, though an authentic, it is a unique OP and it was a hole in my set, so I am THRILLED at the lower prices!

This one, right? What was the alteration?

https://bid.robertedwardauctions.com...?itemid=158098

[steve B]

Originally Posted by BobbyStrawberry

This one, right? What was the alteration?

https://bid.robertedwardauctions.com...?itemid=158098

Maybe the upper right corner? The missing bit looks like the edge is too clean, but it might be fine in person.

[lampertb]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

My perspective is similarly flawed by my time collecting: what I think of cheap hasn't been that for a very long time.

Ditto

[yanks87]

Originally Posted by BobbyStrawberry

This one, right? What was the alteration?

https://bid.robertedwardauctions.com...?itemid=158098

That’s the one! I was thinking it was the top right corner. Regardless, even with the creases, I’m in love with it!

[brianp-beme]

Originally Posted by yanks87

I was shocked and surprise to grab a t206 Cy Young for under $500, though an authentic, it is a unique OP and it was a hole in my set, so I am THRILLED at the lower prices!

I like its looks. To my eyes it appears that the bottom horizontal 'crease' may actually be a rip that goes across most of the card. If so, does a TPG normally classify this as 'altered'?

Brian

[wnp22]

Some interesting prices for sure, and some great pickups as usual from you guys.

I've recently gotten my dad into T206s, and with his birthday coming up, thought I would pick him this one up from the hometown team: