Newbie advice needed...

[kllrbee]

Hey all,
First post. Not sure if this belongs in this section or not, but it looks like this is where the most members are viewing. Did some searching here and it really seems like you guys are very knowledgeable, so I was wondering if you could help me out.
First, a little about me. I am not a dealer or investor. I collect cards based on players I like and the eye appeal of the card. With that said, I would like the cards I obtain to be a good investments. Of course, things could change, but my plan is to sell my collection when i retire in 25 years and hopefully get a nice chunk of change out of it.
My collection consists of only Topps cards. I always have stayed away from the other brands for the simple fact of not confusing things. I have all complete sets from 1969-present. 69-87 in binders, 88-present factory sealed. I also have about 50 singles. Wont list them all but some of the best (or my favorites) are 53 Mays, 68 Ryan, 54 Banks, 57 Mantle, 58 Clemente, 60 Yaz, and 62 Brock. All of the older sets (69-79) and singles are in at least VG-EX shape. Some better, but not worse than what would grade a 4. Anyways, just thought Id give you guys some background about my intentions and what I have.

So now I have 3 "big" cards on my radar which I have saved up all year for.
39 Play Ball Ted Williams. Great looking card and his rookie. Plus, Im a big Williams fan.
51 Bowman Mantle. Another very cool looking card. Rookie. Not a huge Mantle fan. Dont really know why his cards are so overblown, but I guess I couldnt really consider my collection complete without a Mantle rookie. This is what I would consider to be an investment card.
54 Topps Aaron. Just gotta have an Aaron rookie and have been putting it off for too long.

The most I have ever spent for a card is like 300, but these will cost signifigantly more so I figured I could use some expert advice before I get them. I was hoping you guys could give me some insight as to whether or not these cards would be a decent purchase or if they are overpriced and I should wait for a better deal. I realize the cards are only worth what someone is willing to pay, but Id like to at least get some input to start with.

Here are the links of the cards Im interested in.

Mantles.
http://cgi.ebay.com/1951-Bowman-253-...35510088618119

http://cgi.ebay.com/1951-MICKEY-MANT...item2c595a9402

http://cgi.ebay.com/1951-MICKEY-MANT...item2c595a9419

http://cgi.ebay.com/1951-Bowman-253-...item2c59b74a52

There is also a trimmed card that is spectacular looking, but asking 3000, which I think is way overpriced considering I believe trimmed cards should be priced lower than a 1.

Here is the Williams that Im interested in.

http://cgi.ebay.com/1939-Play-Ball-9...item483b047b5a

I havent really found any Aarons that Im interested in yet.

Thanks alot for any and all help you can give.

[Leon]

First of all welcome to Net54baseball. It's always good to have more collectors with us. It sounds like you have a nice collection although the Topps years you named were made in a large supply. I can't say how many times I have had to disappoint folks in telling them the market for those, in low grade, is good but the prices haven't really taken off the way they were "supposed" to when first bought. There was a lady I worked with not very long ago, a very nice older lady. She said she had always bought Topps box sets for her son (about 10-15 yrs my junior) for each birthday, and just put them away, and was hoping he would have a really nice nest egg when the time came to sell them. This was about 5 yrs ago. I had to let her know that they were worth a bit more than she paid but not a lot more. Maybe $5k for all of them. I think she had around half that into them....but was expecting a lot more value.

On the 3 cards you are looking for......They are very high demand and over the years their values have all inched up slightly. I would have to guess they will continue, but only slightly. Just my opinion and others may know more or have a different opinion. I haven't looked at the links you gave. I would say that if you do a lot of homework, and buy them with characteristics you like, you will be fine. AND If you buy them right they are fairly blue chip cards. Good luck and happy hunting!!

[shaunsteig]

Gorgeous cards, so I wish you good luck in enhancing your collection.

I'm no expert, but here's my personal opinion:

• For current evaluations of market conditions, you should consult several sources: price guides (eg SMR), eBay search on completed listings, and my personal favorite is vintagecardprices.com. For such large-ticket purchases, it'd be well worth even a one-month subscription to VCP to check that you're not overpaying.

• Beware of large-ticket card purchases on eBay, particularly of top-shelf cards (eg, 52 Topps Mantle, T206 Cobbs). These are prime candidates for counterfeiting, manipulating TPG holders, etc. You can do a search on this forum to find several fakes that have been called out in the past. This is relevant both for auctions and for BIN. Two of the dealers that your links point to -- 707 sportscards and joevintagesports -- have very large inventories, which to me is reassuring, although I don't recall having dealt with either personally previously. I do have the impression that 707's BIN prices are way above market, whereas joevintage's are very compelling, but my searches have been mostly for T206s so I can't comment on the particular cards you're looking at (for some reason VCP's website won't open this morning, otherwise I'd do a prelim check for you).

• I can't really predict the future direction of those cards, as I haven't followed those particular ones, so I'll defer that to others. I will share my own thought that the economy is in a general funk, and will be so for a while, so the question is whether you'd be buying at the nadir or whether we're still on the downslope. If you go with a "Best Offer" on eBay, I'd aim low and then you can work your way up.

Hope that helps,
--S

[kllrbee]

Thanks for the replies.

I was informed that I posted in the wrong forum, but I appreciate the advice anyways.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by kllrbee

Thanks for the replies.

I was informed that I posted in the wrong forum, but I appreciate the advice anyways.

Well, since you posted about buying a '39 Ted Williams I didn't really think the other forum (post war) was completely correct either. Plus, we are usually quite lenient with first posts being in the wrong place .......All in fun.

[fkw]

Just a thought, I like the rarer Rookie cards of many players, and for Williams he has a very attractive 1939 Goudey card too... the 1939 R303A

Its much scarcer than the common PlayBall card and IMO more attractive too, and far cheaper.

example pic
http://www.oldcardboard.com/ref/rook...ail.asp?id=369

[Harford20]

I agree with Leon, Be Patient.

I was exactly where you are now about 15 years ago. I thought my Topps collection (sets from 1970 to 1994) was premiere, but then moved to pre-war/Ted Williams exclusively. I have a very large Ted Williams collection and can really only comment on that particular card.

The PSA 4 is a nice range card, that often sells in the $650-750 range depending on centering. A nice PSA 5 can be had for about $1000 with patience. Centering and gum stains are what keep the grades lower on this card. As Leon stated, this card has done very "little" for investment purposes. Actually, if you had bought a PSA 3 or 4 in 2003-2006, you would be behind on your investment (at one point, I paid $550 for a nice centered PSA 3 that I probably would not get my money back out of in the current market environment).

I also agree with Frank in looking for an R303-A Williams instead, but have to warn you when Frank says scarcer, he means it. I have only seen about 5 for sale in the last decade, 1 graded, and the last 2 raw (in the SGC 2+ range) sold over the past 4 years, I was the underbidder on these in the $950-1250 range.

Frank, if you have a line on a spare R303-A let me know.

Welcome to the Net
Dave H

[ChiefBenderForever]

Since you like sets and Ted Williams, you might like the 1959 Fleer set which is entirely dedicated to Ted's life and career and is more like a comic book than a set. It is down well over 50% of value from where it was 5-10 years ago, not sure when or if it will come back but a wonderful set so you really can't lose.

[ethicsprof]

great help is already coming your way.
i will simply say Welcome Aboard!!!
'Tis a great place to be.

best,
barry