Argument for why Tobacco insert cards cannot realistically be Grades of 8 or 9

[tedzan]

As we all know, T-cards originally served the purpose of Tobacco pack "stiffeners". One, or 2 card(s) were inserted to strengthen the package (usually
containing 10 cigarettes). OLD JUDGE and W.S. KIMBALL in 1887 were early in the game to include these premiums. Kimball enhanced their cards by
colorizing them, and illustrating action scenes with their portraits.
Very few (if any) of these cards within these soft T-packs could possibly retain their original mint condition. Especially when these cards were removed
from their cigarette pack, or due to the subsequent mis-handling of them.

Anyhow, I present this argument in light of the current ongoing situation regarding TPG's. One of which is the questionable grading of T-cards (i.e., 8's
or 9's)…..when it's suspect (or known) that many of these cards were altered.

Personally, I'm not into high Graded cards. Nor would I ever spend the ridiculous big $$$$$ that they are selling for. Anyhow, I welcome your opinions
on this subject.


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TED Z

T206 Reference
.

[barrysloate]

Agree 100%, and believe the vast majority of high grade cigarette cards have been enhanced in some way.

And it goes far beyond the cigarette packs. What 9-year-old in 1910 kept these cards in pristine condition? Sure, a few outliers have been preserved over the years, but that number should be small, not what we see for sale today. Frankly, the number of high grade cards is ludicrous. But it hasn't stopped world's records from being set regularly.

[CobbSpikedMe]

I have to agree Ted. I can't imagine a card back then being printed and cut to PSA 9 specs, then being put in a pack, shipped, unpacked, sold, pulled from the pack and kept in such nice shape all these years. Kids weren't concerned about keeping these cards mint. I just don't buy it.

[JackW]

Is it unrealistic to think that not every T206 found its way into a pack?

[steve B]

I'd expect very few would survive in that sort of condition. But we did see them in a way years ago didn't we?
I was never picky about condition, but did pick up a few nice ones. My best is a 7, but one or two others have nice enough corners that they might have gone higher if not for some other flaw.
That's one reason I prefer separating how well preserved a card is from how well it was made.

The numbers really aren't bad.
Just for PSA,
total T206s graded 241,098 including qulaifiers
8 = 2395 Just under 1%
8.5 =62
9 =278 Around .1%
10 = 13

Not counting any with qualifiers, which isn't all that many, for 8s and 9s 169 cards.

None of that means that there aren't a number of cards in those 2700 or so that are altered, just that even with altered card there really aren't many T206s that are 8s and 9s

Most other sets of that era don't have any 8s or 9s. And some of the ones that do are pretty durable, like domino discs or P2 pins. All the fairly common sets have a few, but not many.

[swarmee]

https://www.psacard.com/pop/multi-sp...e-series/49281
Here's another set from the same years that has been graded pretty heavily for a multisport issue. The cardstock is much thinner than a T206, but out of 1619 cards for the 1909 (first editions) and 445 for 1910, highest grade is 8.5. Total of 2064.
8.5: 1
8: 9 (plus some qualifiers)
7.5: 4
7: 46
6.5: 5
6: 69

I graded and own the 8.5 and half the 8s; most came out of a really nicely collated set I bought from Kit Young that looked fine to me before I submitted them. So there are NM-MT examples that have survived all this time, but I agree with your premise that it's likely many of the high grade T206 cards in PSA 8-10 holders have been altered/trimmed over time.

[Popcorn]

I always felt that a 7 was a top grade for a unaltered t206.

[Peter_Spaeth]

As I recall there was a great deal of skepticism when the Harris Collection was slabbed by PSA back in the day.

[Ronnie73]

I still remember when going to card shows in the 80's and seeing these vintage cards and even as a kid, I knew many of the cards didn't look natural. That was one of the reasons I stayed away from pre-war for so long. At the time, I was more experienced with coins and there were so many cleaned coins even back then. Currently a majority of older coins on eBay are cleaned or altered in some way. I'm guessing older baseball cards follow a similar percentage of being altered also.

[atx840]

Nice post Ted, I can’t imagine how this survived in that condition for 110 years. Don’t like the top border.

[drcy]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

As I recall there was a great deal of skepticism when the Harris Collection was slabbed by PSA back in the day.

Yes. A lot of suspected trimming.

[ullmandds]

If you can't beat em'...join them...huh Ted??????

I have a hard time believing as many cards currently exist in uber high grade from the tobacco era. IMO...most T/E cards graded 7+ have been messed with

[MW1]

Ted,

I usually agree with 99% of the things you write but on this issue, I think you're completely wrong. In the last 30 years, I have either heard of or seen in person a significant number of finds and original, untouched collections comprising significant quantities of ungraded NM-MT and even MINT condition T206s. I even encountered a collection that had about 50 T207s that were straight out of packs and, with the exception of centering, were Mint.

The assumption that 8s and 9s in PSA holders are frequently altered is mistaken.

[Goudey77]

Originally Posted by MW1

Ted,

I usually agree with 99% of the things you write but on this issue, I think you're completely wrong. In the last 30 years, I have either heard of or seen in person a significant number of finds and original, untouched collections comprising significant quantities of ungraded NM-MT and even MINT condition T206s. I even encountered a collection that had about 50 T207s that were straight out of packs and, with the exception of centering, were Mint.

The assumption that 8s and 9s in PSA holders are frequently altered is mistaken.

I am going to go out on a limb and say this could be the accurate assumption. At least for a fair percentage of the higher grade examples.

If you look at the number of tobacco cards in population it's quite a lot. So if you take a tiny fraction and assume they survived high grade status it's not such a stretch. Not every cards fell in the hands of kids I assume. Adults who were the tobacco users couldve just stored these away in a box.

[LincolnVT]

In my opinion, T-cards often get a favorable bump. I've seen many Old Judge cards that look like an authentic come back with a "fair" or even "good" grade.

[tedzan]

Originally Posted by MW1

Ted,

I usually agree with 99% of the things you write but on this issue, I think you're completely wrong. In the last 30 years, I have either heard of or seen in person a significant number of finds and original, untouched collections comprising significant quantities of ungraded NM-MT and even MINT condition T206s. I even encountered a collection that had about 50 T207s that were straight out of packs and, with the exception of centering, were Mint.

The assumption that 8s and 9s in PSA holders are frequently altered is mistaken.

Hi Michael

Nice to hear from you, it has been a while. Over the 40+ years that I've been in this hobby, I have been fortunate to acquire (or have seen) several original T206 collections.
Perhaps, not as many as you and your brother have, however here's an example of one of my more significant T206 "finds". In 2006, a fellow from South Carolina contacted
me regarding a T206 collection of approx. 400 assorted PIEDMONT cards. This collection had been in his family for 97 years. It was evident to me that the original owner of
these cards collected them from 1909 to mid 1910, since there were no PIEDMONT 350-460 series cards in it. Included with this group were 29 Southern League cards with
OLD MILL backs. Here's a breakdown of the condition of these T206's....80 % graded Vg-Ex, approx. 20 % were Ex, and 5 cards were near mint.

So, please don't misconstrue my argument here. Yes, in any given collection of original T206 cards there will be a small percentage of near mint cards that have survived all
these years; however, no where near the amount we are seeing in the various auctions, nowadays.


TED Z

T206 Reference
.

[ullmandds]

Originally Posted by LincolnVT

In my opinion, T-cards often get a favorable bump. I've seen many Old Judge cards that look like an authentic come back with a "fair" or even "good" grade.

comparing OJ's to T cards is yugos to toyotas

[benjulmag]

Here are the facts as I see them (in no particular order).

1. At the card shows of yesterday one very rarely saw a T206 that by today's standards would grade close to a real 8.
2. For a card to grade 8 or higher, assuming it was not damaged while in the pack, it would need to be gingerly removed from the pack and subsequently treated with tremendous care and essentially never handled.
3. There are very few oversized cards today compared with yesteryear.
4. The incremental increase in price from converting a 5 or 6 to an 8 or higher is staggering.
5. There is a significant population of known card doctors.
6. PSA spends very little time examining cards, which examinations are done with unsophisticated methods and in many instances performed by inexperienced graders.
7. When I blow up T206s graded 8 or higher from an online catalog that allows high resolution examination, I can literally see on a majority of them cardboard shavings and/or uneven borders/edges.

One of my father's favorite sayings was when one sees a hoofmark on a trail in the woods, expect to find a horse, not a zebra.

Applying that saying to the issue at hand, IMHO;

horse -- the great majority of T206 8's or higher are altered
zebra -- they are unaltered

[darwinbulldog]

What percentage of T206s survived at all? I believe the total production numbers were in the hundreds of millions, right? So what we're seeing is approximately 1 out of every 1 million manufactured T206s currently residing in a PSA 9 or 10 slab. I would have expected the number to be a little higher than that actually, but surely some of those cards were altered. Still, it would be more surprising to me if significantly less than 0.0001% of cards as sturdy as T206s had legitimately survived in 9+ condition for 110 years than if just a few hundred of them did. I imagine if you dumped a million new T206s off the roof of Factory 30, a few hundred of them would still be in mint condition.

[drcy]

Originally Posted by benjulmag

Here are the facts as I see them (in no particular order).

1. At the card shows of yesterday one very rarely saw a T206 that by today's standards would grade close to a real 8.
2. For a card to grade 8 or higher, assuming it was not damaged while in the pack, it would need to be gingerly removed from the pack and subsequently treated with tremendous care and essentially never handled.
3. The are very few oversized cards today compared with yesteryear.
4. The incremental increase in price from converting a 5 or 6 to an 8 or higher is staggering.
5. There is a significant population of known card doctors.
6. PSA spends very little time examining cards, which examinations are done with unsophisticated methods and in many instances performed by inexperienced graders.
7. When I blow up T206s graded 8 or higher from an online catalog that allows high resolution examination, I can literally see on a majority of them cardboard shavings and/or uneven borders/edges.

One of my father's favorite sayings was when one sees a hoofmark on a trail in the woods, expect to find a horse, not a zebra.

Applying that saying to the issue at hand, IMHO;

horse -- the great majority of T206 8's or higher are altered
zebra -- they are unaltered

Of course proof and evidence are important, but, in the hobby, so are common sense. Most do, but some collectors lack it.

[GeoPoto]

Originally Posted by tedzan

Personally, I'm not into high Graded cards. Nor would I ever spend the ridiculous big $$$$$ that they are selling for. Anyhow, I welcome your opinions
on this subject.

TED Z

T206 Reference
.

I only purchase graded cards. That makes me one of the dimwitted and gullible victims of the doctoring exposed by BO. That doctoring has put a permanent cloud over all existing graded cards. Perhaps, more accurately it has amplified a cloud that already existed. BO has proven that it is possible to improve the grade of most cards by doctoring them in ways that the TPG's cannot discern. As a result, nobody knows for the vast majority of graded cards whether they were doctored or not. Over time, the collection community will decide how this uncertainty should affect value.

The activity exposed by BO also threatens the value of graded cards in another important way: it expands the source population of "newly-graded" cards. One assumption buttressing the value of high-grade graded cards is the notion that self-interest and the grim reaper push all cards capable of obtaining a high grade into the grading process. BO has shown that the source of newly-graded high-grade cards includes mid-grade graded cards.

I suspect that the TPG's will engineer a way to stop the doctoring of previously-graded cards. Perhaps they will implant a marker in each card or retain a digital "fingerprint" of the cards. At that point, the doctors will turn to raw cards.

I'll end by turning your question around: How are you going to prevent your raw collection from eventually becoming grist for the doctor's mill if not by getting it graded?

[tedzan]

Originally Posted by atx840

Nice post Ted, I can’t imagine how this survived in that condition for 110 years. Don’t like the top border.

Hi Chris

That CYCLE 350 Chase certainly looks better than the one I traded you several years ago....or, did you "enhance" it

Anyhow, just kidding you. But, it sounds like, you suspect this card was "enhanced" ?

Hey guy, it was really great seeing and talkin' T206's with you at the National last month.


TED Z

T206 Reference
.

[JackW]

Is it unrealistic to think that not every T206 found its way into a pack?

[Bridwell]

I agree with Ted. It seems unlikely that even 1 out of 100 would survive in perfect condition. I think that PSA used to be fairly generous on PSA 8's. I've seen some with a slightly dinged corner, for example, or surface wear, or a back stain. With a newer card, the card would only get a PSA 6 but as a T206 it gets an 8?

Trimming is certainly a factor as well. I believe there are a significant percentage of PSA 8's and higher that have been trimmed or doctored in some way. For example, a card that is not a perfect rectangle. It seems unlikely that a top border would be skewed but the bottom border perfectly aligned. I'm not sure how that could naturally occur in the printing process.

[benjulmag]

Originally Posted by JackW

Is it unrealistic to think that not every T206 found its way into a pack?

Some may not have. But to me that changes little. Here's the main point as I see it.

For a card to survive in true 8 or higher condition, at ALL times in its existence the handler must be CONSCIOUS of the need to do nothing that could cause anything greater than a microscopic deterioration in condition. So the question is -- Who on earth in that era when cards literally had no financial value would be conscious of such a thing? A collector you might say? Okay, let's look at the most well-known one -- Jefferson Burdick. If you look through his various albums, I would say the average card on a good day is a vg. I'm not sure a single card would grade (even close to) an 8. And this guy appreciated collecting as much as anyone. BTW, vg-ex to ex cards neatly displayed in a book without much toning look beautiful!

When I was a kid and obsessed with collecting, I was particularly conscious of condition. So if my card was an excellent, I would regard it as satisfactory from every perspective. Even in the 80's when people started to become excessively anal about condition, an 8 in those days would probably be a 6 today. In 1984 I bought an entire T206 set (minus the big 4 (though then it was the big 3)). It was sold as a nrmt-mt set. Sure, I understood the puffery associated with grading and did not expect the average grade to be that. After I bought it I described in as an ex-mt+ to nr-mt set. Some years later I traded it, and some years after that I saw the set in an auction, each card having been graded and an individual lot. As I recall, the great majority of cards were in the 4 to 5 range, and I don't believe a single card graded higher than a 6.

So to me at least, taking all these things into account and applying simple common sense, I believe that what we are witnessing in regard to the population of ultra high-graded vintage registry cards is one of the greatest hoaxes collecting has ever seen.

[barrysloate]

It is no doubt a hoax Corey, but it is the engine that propels this hobby forward. If we all agree that the registry is what brings the big money into the hobby, then the hobby needs as many high grade cards as possible. So wouldn't it make perfect sense to turn a blind eye to the chicanery of the card doctors, since they are providing a service that is desperately needed? They are supplying the hobby with high grade cards, thus making access to the registry that much easier. The more high grade cards out there, the more well pocketed collectors can play.

Third party grading was never about accuracy and precision. It was always about keeping customers happy and coming back. When I was active in the business, I remember having a number of conversations with customers that went something like this: I sent five cards to the TPG, and four of them came back with evidence of trim. As such, I will never do business with that company again. Those conversations stuck with me. That's when I realized that collectors don't want a blunt assessment, they want good news. Good news is what keeps them in the hobby and makes them repeat customers. Bad news sends them someplace else.

Third party graders never entered the hobby to clean it up and expose all the fraud. They came in to make a lot of money. And the way to do that is to make people happy. Why do you think when a collector resubmits a card for a regrade, the condition can only go up but can never go down? Because that's the only way to keep cards coming back for a second or third or fourth grading fee. If the card's grade could go down, the resubmission business would dry up. It's not about an accurate assessment, it's about keeping customers happy.

That's the business model. And the hoax you cite is really what helps the TPG's remain so very profitable. They may not be that skilled in grading and authenticating, but they are incredibly skilled at making money for themselves, their clients, and their stockholders.

[benjulmag]

I think that is a short term view Barry. As you yourself said, eventually technology overtakes everything, and so it will with card grading and exposing what has been going on. And when that happens, the hobby is going to suffer one huge black eye.

I believe this hobby is strong enough to be propelled with an engine not fueled by fraud.

[barrysloate]

I very much hope you are correct.

[shagrotn77]

Tobacco cards aside, I never really saw cards from as recently as the 1960s that would grade PSA 9s and above when I was regularly attending card shows in the 1980s...and I went to a lot of them. Where were all these cards hiding?

[GasHouseGang]

Every once in awhile, you will run across a collector that seems to have looked at the cards once, then put them away. I can imagine some tobacco collector taking the cards out of the package, looking at them, and then placing them in an empty tobacco box or tin and never looking at them again. I'm sure it's rare, but it could happen. Something like the "Black Swamp Find" is incredibly rare, but proves that sometimes cards can survive in amazing condition.

[tedzan]

Originally Posted by GeoPoto

.

I'll end by turning your question around: How are you going to prevent your raw collection from eventually becoming grist for the doctor's mill if not by getting it graded?

George

My answer to your question is very simple. But, first I must inform you that we are talking about a collection that comprises of every major BB set from 1888 to 1987 (all complete).
And in some cases multiple sets of my favorites....such as 1941 PLAY BALL, 1949 LEAF, 1949 BOWMAN, and 4 different T206 complete (or near complete sets). Plus, several FB sets.

Can you imagine if all these cards (26,000+) were graded, I would need another house to store them in. Actually, I have a large barn, but critters (big and tiny) visit it often.

Anyway, my Grandson is an avid BB fan, and he appreciates the history of the game. He will be inheriting my entire collection.....so, there's my simple answer to you.


TED Z

T206 Reference
.

[RedsFan1941]

Originally Posted by tedzan

George

My answer to your question is very simple. But, first I must inform you that we are talking about a collection that comprises of every major BB set from 1888 to 1987 (all complete).
And in some cases multiple sets of my favorites....such as 1941 PLAY BALL, 1949 LEAF, 1949 BOWMAN, and 4 different T206 complete (or near complete sets). Plus, several FB sets.

Can you imagine if all these cards (26,000+) were graded, I would need another house to store them in. Actually, I have a large barn, but critters (big and tiny) visit it often.

Anyway, my Grandson is an avid BB fan, and he appreciates the history of the game. He will be inheriting my entire collection.....so, there's my simple answer to you.


TED Z

T206 Reference
.

wow!

[Exhibitman]

Anecdotally, the few original accumulations of T cards I have been involved with have been ex or maybe ex+ even with sitting untouched for 100 years. Even the cards I've seen come direct from being pressed inside books for 100 years don't look like the alleged 7-8-9-10 cards out there today.

And grandma, what small borders your cards have!

[Peter_Spaeth]

The many veteran collectors and dealers I have spoken to on this subject over the years have had experiences much closer to Ted's than to Michael's. Perhaps Michael has had access to finds and collections that the rest of these guys haven't, that's the only way I can think of to reconcile all this. But at least among the people I have dealt with, the consensus has been that most 8s and 9s must be altered.

[Exhibitman]

The card show point is salient. Since the seventies I’ve attended literally hundreds of shows; in the late eighties and early nineties it was 2-3 every weekend. For a few years I set up every weekend at local shows. Prewar cards never looked this good in this quantity. Postwar mainstream, yeah, there were plenty of accumulations from baby boomers that surfaced in great shape. I bought, slabbed and sold off some of those and definitely can see high end cards surviving 20-30 years in a childhood bedroom untouched until the parents move. But another fifty years? Rare, or at least rarer than now.

[GeoPoto]

Originally Posted by tedzan

George


Anyway, my Grandson is an avid BB fan, and he appreciates the history of the game. He will be inheriting my entire collection.....so, there's my simple answer to you.


TED Z

T206 Reference
.

Ted, that is a wonderful answer. I envy your Grandson. I apologize for seeming to pry into your personal plans. My point is an extension of my prediction that the TPG's will soon make it impossible to crack out a graded mid-grade card, doctor it, and get it regraded without being discovered. If I'm right, it will force the doctors to focus on raw cards and create a situation where getting raw cards graded is the only way to prevent them from being doctored before they are graded. I trust your Grandson to sort it out.

[Rhotchkiss]

Originally Posted by benjulmag

For a card to survive in true 8 or higher condition, at ALL times in its existence the handler must be CONSCIOUS of the need to do nothing that could cause anything greater than a microscopic deterioration in condition.

There is at least one other option -- have you seen the Hall cards being auctioned in Heritage? Many of the high-grade Hall cards do not deserve an 8, and I will bet dimes to dollars that anyone else would have gotten 5's, 6's and 7's on many of his 8's. Also, grading standards have changed over the years, meaning many high grade cards sit in graded-flips they could not obtain today/under a different standard. In other words, not all 8's and 9's are equal, and likely many on the pop report do not deserve their grade.

[tedzan]

Hi Ryan

What you are suggesting regarding Hall's collection was not always true.

I've sold David quite a number of T206's these past years. Many of them ungraded, and at least 40 of them graded.
The majority of the graded cards were SGC graded. Of course, he had these SGC's regraded to PSA cards. Well, not
all of these were PSA graded with the same grade SGC initially graded them. Many of them received a lower grade.
The most notable one is this Herzog / UZIT (1 of 1), which PSA graded it VG.


. .



TED Z

T206 Reference
.

[tedzan]

Originally Posted by GeoPoto

Ted, that is a wonderful answer. I envy your Grandson. I apologize for seeming to pry into your personal plans. My point is an extension of my prediction that the TPG's will soon make it impossible to crack out a graded mid-grade card, doctor it, and get it regraded without being discovered. If I'm right, it will force the doctors to focus on raw cards and create a situation where getting raw cards graded is the only way to prevent them from being doctored before they are graded. I trust your Grandson to sort it out.

George

No need to apologize, you are not prying. Here's my Grandson, Ron.....he graduated from the Univ. of Maine several years ago.
He has a collection of BB card sets (1984 Donruss, 1981 - 1987 Topps). When he was a teenager, he would mow our lawn, and
I would reward him with one of these sets. His favorite cards, though, is his 1952 Topps reprint set. He framed the Mantle card.





Continuing my vast collection is not completely devoid of graded cards. I do have several PSA 5's and 6's, and several SGC 60's.
Furthermore, my T206 Plank, Demmitt, O'Hara, and SOVEREIGN 460 red Cobb are graded "A".

"A" for awesome, and affordable


TED Z

T206 Reference
.