Signed Card Collection: Detriment to value forgoing TPAs?

[sbfinley]

In the past couple of years my collection has focused on extensively on signed cards. In that time the services offered by the main three TPA companies has been in constant flux (flip changes, price changes, head of authentication, etc.) Thus as someone with a desire for uniformity - I'm currently looking at a collection spread across three separate services with even more different flips. I was an SGC guy until Spence left and they dropped the classic green flips for autos. Then I settled on PSA blue flips and they jacked that to kingdom come with the "trading card" designation. Prices are rising ($20 just to upgrade blue flips to red) and the companies are in such flux at the moment that I'm just ready to crack everything free and just go unauthenticated.

So here's the question: How much am I devaluing the future of a signed card collection if I chose to avoid TPA services going forward?

For reference, I'm not asking about $5-$50 autos. I rarely have them authenticated unless it's a newer star now that I can't get into blue flip subs for <$10. Let's talk signed cards of tough, deceased, and Hall of Famers with rough value between $300-$2500. Personally, I don't need the TPA to be happy. I don't display them other than online albums and clean one touch magnetics would suit my uniformity just fine. In the future, however, I'm afraid that I'd be leaving both money and prospective buyers on the table with a large raw collection.

Would I be making a huge mistake cracking all these cards out?

[packs]

I certainly don't speak for everyone but I would never, ever buy a $500 or above signed card because a guy told me it was authentic. The only way I'd ever spend that kind of money is if the card was slabbed or came with a cert. I don't see how you could maximize profits without certs, if that's your prerogative.

[sbfinley]

Originally Posted by packs

I certainly don't speak for everyone but I would never, ever buy a $500 or above signed card because a guy told me it was authentic. The only way I'd ever spend that kind of money is if the card was slabbed or came with a cert. I don't see how you could maximize profits without certs, if that's your prerogative.

That's what I'm afraid of, although it's more of "not take a bath" than "maximize profits."

Here's an example:



I just received this card earlier this month. It was a consignment with a well respected member on SCF. I have zero doubt about it's authenticity. To a prospective buyer one day, however, that's just another story. Authenticated on eBay it's probably a $400-$500 card. Raw though, I'd just seem like idiot or someone with something to hide.

[36GoudeyMan]

I have to agree with Packs. No way I touch a high-end signature without TPA attached. And not just for resale purposes (although, realistically, that's a huge factor), but for my own peace of mind -- I find myself defaulting to "why didn't he get it authenticated?" whenever I see a desirable autograph without TPA, and concluding that he didn't want to risk being disappointed with the refusal to authenticate, so I pass...

[packs]

Yeah and when you get to high end autographs you're talking about guys who tend to get forged at a high rate by scammers. I'd never buy a Trout card unauthenticated because his signature isn't all that complex. Same goes for someone like Michael Jordan. It just doesn't make sense for a serious buyer to buy something unslabbed. Maybe the casual observer who wants to get a deal more than they want an authentic signature, but I think most advanced collectors would pass.

[HOF Auto Rookies]

That's a perfect Trout, but yes, you would hardly get close to what you could get if it were slabbed.

[sbfinley]

Thanks for replies. Judging from the feedback I'm receiving here and SCF I'll keep authenticating.

[Lordstan]

Originally Posted by packs

It just doesn't make sense for a serious buyer to buy something unslabbed. Maybe the casual observer who wants to get a deal more than they want an authentic signature, but I think most advanced collectors would pass.

The advanced collector is the person who needs the TPAs the least as you don't get to be an advanced collector without having a lot of experience that has come from many years learning from various sources and from the mistakes they have made along the way. The casual observer is the person who need the TPA as they just want an autograph without any of the work involved in learning.

As a counterpoint to the comments so far, I have sent only one card in for slabbing ever and it was to sell in the short term. I will never send any card, or any auto for that matter, I intend to keep, in for slabbing/authentication.
Why?
1) I don't need it. I only buy autos from people I trust or signatures that I feel very confident in. Having a mystery authenticator tell me that my item is real means nothing. If I buy something from Jim Stinson, Richard Simon, Bill Corcoran, Kevin Keating, and a few others I know that they have looked at it and That is enough. When anyone sends to PSA there is no way to know who authenticated it. All the confidence in them comes from their incredibly efficient and effective marketing plan. Please tell which experienced/advanced collector trusts Steve Grad or even Jim Spence? Why don't you all listen to the person with the most advanced HOF auto collection that I am aware of? He is a member here and if you read his posts carefully, you will see how relieved he is that Keating and Corcoran are now working for PSA.

2)I can always do it later when I go to sell them. As a matter of fact, I won't have to. When I die and my family sends my stuff to an auction house to liquidate, except for perhaps Lelands, they will automatically send it all to whichever authenticator they are working with to get certed in some way. I hear people describe how they are worried about their families getting screwed by not having their stuff preauthenticated. Nonsense. Make a list with instructions for how to liquidate the collection. Do you really think your family is going to list your collection one by one on ebay? You really think they are going to want to deal with the hassle of listing, shipping, dealing with deadbeats and chargebacks? Not likely. If you want to make it easy, have them ship it to one of the big AHs and let them do the work.

Plus my way saves you boatloads of money that you can spend buying more autographed cards. Slab/Cert right before you are going to sell to maximize profits on the sale. Keep the rest raw.

In the OP's case, I would not unslab the ones you already paid for, but probably wouldn't send any more. Ultimately, spend your money onwhatever makes you happy.

[packs]

You're talking about one thing while I'm talking about another. If you want to say a serious buyer will buy something to keep without a TPA because they know it's authentic, that has no relationship to the person selling the item who has already said they don't want to leave money on the table. Many serious collectors buy from reputable auction houses and every item comes with either an AH cert or a TPA cert. Buying your way limits you to 4 or 5 potential vendors, which is not a reality for collectors as a whole. We will buy from anyone so long as we're comfortable with the item, which often comes down to paper work.

What you're talking about is how you'd like the hobby to operate but that is not the reality of the hobby.

[thenavarro]

Originally Posted by packs

What you're talking about is how you'd like the hobby to operate but that is not the reality of the hobby.

The reality of the hobby is that what is "in" today can be "out" tomorrow. If I was the original poster, I would not crack them out now, but I also wouldn't get items slabbed right now if doing it for the purpose of "marketability" of sales in the distant future.

None of us know if the slabs that the OP cards reside in will be in demand at the time he decides to sell or if they will be considered a badge of shame by that time (at which point it would be wise to crack them out THEN and do whatever was necessary to increase marketability and "value" at that time.) It doesn't hurt anything IMHO to leave them slabbed for now, but for your unslabbed cards, I don't see a benefit to having then slabbed right now if you have no intention of trading or selling them in the near future.

[Scott Garner]

Originally Posted by thenavarro

The reality of the hobby is that what is "in" today can be "out" tomorrow. If I was the original poster, I would not crack them out now, but I also wouldn't get items slabbed right now if doing it for the purpose of "marketability" of sales in the distant future.

None of us know if the slabs that the OP cards reside in will be in demand at the time he decides to sell or if they will be considered a badge of shame by that time (at which point it would be wise to crack them out THEN and do whatever was necessary to increase marketability and "value" at that time.) It doesn't hurt anything IMHO to leave them slabbed for now, but for your unslabbed cards, I don't see a benefit to having then slabbed right now if you have no intention of trading or selling them in the near future.

+1

[theshleps]

Just wanted to say I really appreciate this discussion as I am in the same boat and trying to decide whether to lay down many thousands of dollars to get my stuff slabbed. Wise advice here

[David Atkatz]

Originally Posted by packs

Yeah and when you get to high end autographs you're talking about guys who tend to get forged at a high rate by scammers. I'd never buy a Trout card unauthenticated because his signature isn't all that complex.

So then what makes you believe that a good forger couldn't reproduce that absurd squiggle and fool a TPA?

[David Atkatz]

Originally Posted by Lordstan

The advanced collector is the person who needs the TPAs the least as you don't get to be an advanced collector without having a lot of experience that has come from many years learning from various sources and from the mistakes they have made along the way. The casual observer is the person who need the TPA as they just want an autograph without any of the work involved in learning.

As a counterpoint to the comments so far, I have sent only one card in for slabbing ever and it was to sell in the short term. I will never send any card, or any auto for that matter, I intend to keep, in for slabbing/authentication.
Why?
1) I don't need it. I only buy autos from people I trust or signatures that I feel very confident in. Having a mystery authenticator tell me that my item is real means nothing. If I buy something from Jim Stinson, Richard Simon, Bill Corcoran, Kevin Keating, and a few others I know that they have looked at it and That is enough. When anyone sends to PSA there is no way to know who authenticated it. All the confidence in them comes from their incredibly efficient and effective marketing plan. Please tell which experienced/advanced collector trusts Steve Grad or even Jim Spence? Why don't you all listen to the person with the most advanced HOF auto collection that I am aware of? He is a member here and if you read his posts carefully, you will see how relieved he is that Keating and Corcoran are now working for PSA.

2)I can always do it later when I go to sell them. As a matter of fact, I won't have to. When I die and my family sends my stuff to an auction house to liquidate, except for perhaps Lelands, they will automatically send it all to whichever authenticator they are working with to get certed in some way. I hear people describe how they are worried about their families getting screwed by not having their stuff preauthenticated. Nonsense. Make a list with instructions for how to liquidate the collection. Do you really think your family is going to list your collection one by one on ebay? You really think they are going to want to deal with the hassle of listing, shipping, dealing with deadbeats and chargebacks? Not likely. If you want to make it easy, have them ship it to one of the big AHs and let them do the work.

Plus my way saves you boatloads of money that you can spend buying more autographed cards. Slab/Cert right before you are going to sell to maximize profits on the sale. Keep the rest raw.

In the OP's case, I would not unslab the ones you already paid for, but probably wouldn't send any more. Ultimately, spend your money onwhatever makes you happy.

Sage advice.

[Lordstan]

Originally Posted by packs

You're talking about one thing while I'm talking about another. If you want to say a serious buyer will buy something to keep without a TPA because they know it's authentic, that has no relationship to the person selling the item who has already said they don't want to leave money on the table. Many serious collectors buy from reputable auction houses and every item comes with either an AH cert or a TPA cert. Buying your way limits you to 4 or 5 potential vendors, which is not a reality for collectors as a whole. We will buy from anyone so long as we're comfortable with the item, which often comes down to paper work.

What you're talking about is how you'd like the hobby to operate but that is not the reality of the hobby.

We are talking about the exact same thing.
You said "It just doesn't make sense for a serious buyer to buy something unslabbed. Maybe the casual observer who wants to get a deal more than they want an authentic signature, but I think most advanced collectors would pass."
My reply was that serious buyers are the buyers who need slabbing and authentication the least. Serious buyers buy things in auction houses all the time. Not because they are certed. The auction houses have decided to slab everything because 1) items across the board sell for more money(which I acknowledged in my answer), 2) it limits their liability. The casual buyers are much less likely to have their items re looked at by anyone else when the items come with a cert, 3) There is a mutually beneficial relationship between authentication companies and Auction Houses. Auction Houses can claim/imply they are selling something more guaranteed because of the cert and the TPAs can reinforce their legitimacy because they are "accepted" by Auction Houses. If you don't believe me, just read the PSA and JSA website. The number one reason they list is that they are accepted by all the auction houses.(http://www.psacard.com/About/WhyPSAAndPSADNA/#whypsadna)

Does this make them bad, NOT AT ALL. It also doesn't mean you absolutely NEED them to tell you your autos are good either.

If he is keeping them in his collection, how does slabbing help the OP? Does it make them more real? No. Slabbing/certing only helps him when he sells, so why not wait until he is ready to sell them to do it? Why spend the money now when he won't get any return on that investment for years or more and the return he gets will not be higher then because he had them slabbed now as opposed to later.

Here is an example. Suppose, instead of slabbing 50 cards at $20 per, you bought 5 Trout signed rookies back in 2011. Previously someone said they are $500-600 per on ebay. So that $1000 that would have gone into slabbing got you ZERO return, but those 5 Trout cards are now worth $2500-3K minus $100 to slab them just before you sell them.

Originally Posted by thenavarro

The reality of the hobby is that what is "in" today can be "out" tomorrow. If I was the original poster, I would not crack them out now, but I also wouldn't get items slabbed right now if doing it for the purpose of "marketability" of sales in the distant future.

None of us know if the slabs that the OP cards reside in will be in demand at the time he decides to sell or if they will be considered a badge of shame by that time (at which point it would be wise to crack them out THEN and do whatever was necessary to increase marketability and "value" at that time.) It doesn't hurt anything IMHO to leave them slabbed for now, but for your unslabbed cards, I don't see a benefit to having then slabbed right now if you have no intention of trading or selling them in the near future.

Mike said this extremely well and is 1000% correct. Slab/cert when you are going to sell. Use the money now to buy more autos.

[Republicaninmass]

I just had my whole 52 set graded psa red flip with card grade to keep them all uniform. It's pertinent for the set registry, and will probably be better at some point if Indecide to sell. That being said, if you couldn't care less about the registry, and aren't selling, different slabs are fine.

[Bcwcardz]

Originally Posted by packs

I certainly don't speak for everyone but I would never, ever buy a $500 or above signed card because a guy told me it was authentic. The only way I'd ever spend that kind of money is if the card was slabbed or came with a cert. I don't see how you could maximize profits without certs, if that's your prerogative.

As someone once said " it doesnt matter if its real, only that it is certified". It sucks but if its not certified the value is vastly decreased. The slab and paper are all that matter, real or forged.

Sent from my SM-T350 using Tapatalk

[packs]

No offense to Atkatz or Lordstan but your interpretations are your opinions about how you'd like the hobby to be. They do not represent the reality of the hobby and telling someone they shouldn't use TPAs because you have a POV on the matter isn't helping someone who'd like to know if they'll be taking a financial hit, which in today's market they would be.

[Lordstan]

Originally Posted by packs

No offense to Atkatz or Lordstan but your interpretations are your opinions about how you'd like the hobby to be. They do not represent the reality of the hobby and telling someone they shouldn't use TPAs because you have a POV on the matter isn't helping someone who'd like to know if they'll be taking a financial hit, which in today's market they would be.

I take no offense, but you are not hearing what I am saying. I am not saying he shouldn't use TPAs. I am saying he should save his money and send the cards to TPAs when he is going to sell them. Having cards slabbed does nothing, absolutely nothing, for him financially, except drain his wallet, UNTIL he SELLS them. Slabbed cards sitting in a box are worth exactly the same as unslabbed cards sitting in a box. You may think they are different, but all this stuff we collect is only worth anything because someone else is willing to give you money for it. Until someone has offered you money it is meaningless. BTW, I never said not to slab. I, just like Mike Navarro, said to slab later just before sale.

BTW, Nothing I said in my last response was opinion. It was all fact.

1) My reply was that serious buyers are the buyers who need slabbing and authentication the least.
2) The auction houses have decided to slab everything because 1) items across the board sell for more money
3) auction houses have decided to slab everything because it limits their liability. The casual buyers are much less likely to have their items re looked at by anyone else when the items come with a cert.
4) auction houses have decided to slab everything because There is a mutually beneficial relationship between authentication companies and Auction Houses. Auction Houses can claim/imply they are selling something more guaranteed because of the cert and the TPAs can reinforce their legitimacy because they are "accepted" by Auction Houses.
5) It also doesn't mean you absolutely NEED them to tell you your autos are good either.
6) Suppose, instead of slabbing 50 cards at $20 per, you bought 5 Trout signed rookies back in 2011. Previously someone said they are $500-600 per on ebay. So that $1000 that would have gone into slabbing got you ZERO return, but those 5 Trout cards are now worth $2500-3K minus $100 to slab them just before you sell them.

None of things above are opinions. They are facts. I am not sure why, or even how, you would dispute them.

You wrote, "Buying your way limits you to 4 or 5 potential vendors, which is not a reality for collectors as a whole. We will buy from anyone so long as we're comfortable with the item, which often comes down to paper work."

It's only not a reality because you make it so. The dealers that I mentioned have sold tens of thousands of items between them over the years. You want more that is fine. If you wish to take the word of an unknown authenticator with unknown skill set and unknown experience, just because they have a fancy piece of paper or slab you are perfectly within your right to do so. I prefer buying stuff from people who I know know what they are doing or buying from others if I know what I am doing.

Finally, so that you cannot misinterpret my opinion once again. I think he should slab when, and only when, he is prepared to sell the item. Before that he is using up money that he can use to buy other autos. If he doesn't care about the money then slab away, but don't be shocked if the any of the TPAs are gone in 20-30yrs and the auction houses want the cards reslabbed with the TPA that is the current market leader to maximize profits.

[T206Collector]

I gave up on flip uniformity years ago. If there have been this many changes in just the past few years, imagine what it would cost to keep up with this for another decade or more. If you're holding items for a generation, attempting to keep up with the graders will only matter if one of the big ones loses credibility over time. In those cases, I will have the items put into an updated slab with a credible flip. But, what is a credible opinion today -- whose opinion will maximize value -- will necessarily change over time.