Ranking of T206 Rarities

[MVSNYC]

As per Johnny's post...several of us were chatting today about a variety of T206 topics...among them, we were ranking some of the rarest cards in the set, and also trying to put some quantity estimates to them. Would love to see others opinions...(rank the cards as you wish)...


Doyle- 9/10
Cobb/Cobb- 24/25
Brown Old Mill- 25-30
Brown Lenox- 50-60
Wagner- 50-60
BL460s- 50-60
Proofs- 60-70
Plank- 120
Drum- 120
Uzit- 150
Magie- 250

(List below will be edited/updated as the thread evolves)...

Doyle- 9/10
Cobb/Cobb- 24/25
Brown Old Mill- 25-30(less?)
Brown Lenox- 30-40
Wagner- 50-60(more?)
BL460s- 50-60
Proofs- 60-70
Plank- 120
Drum- 150+
Uzit- 180+
Magie- 250

[mrvster]

Ryan......post your estimates!

[Sean]

I think that you're too high on the Lenox Browns. I would estimate 30-35 of them.

[mrvster]

I think I was high originally on that pop.....maybe 100 Planks???

more Uzits I think....

[Lobo Aullando]

Drums and Uzits are already in the 150 range in the PSA pop report. Throw in pre-brand attribution PSA cards, other slabbers, and raw cards, and one would at least have to double that.

[FrankWakefield]

I think there's twice that number of Wagner cards.

[CrackaJackKid]

I thought there were 20 or less known Brown OM.

[MVSNYC]

Thanks for the input so far. Will continue to tweak/update the second list above, keep some estimates coming.

[Jobu]

The galleries on the T206 Resource show 46 Wagners and 64 Planks. There are almost certainly more of each out there, but given the status of these cards in the hobby and the amount of time that people have been following them, it seems to me that the ratio between these might at least be close.

I can make an argument for a slightly larger % of unknown Planks than unknown/not in the gallery Wagners. The Resource ratio is 64/46 Plank/Wagner, or 1.39:1. If we bump this up to assume a few more missing Planks than Wagners, say 1.5:1 and go with 60 Wagners, that gets us to 90 Planks.

I think a more interesting question for Plank is how many 150 vs 350 there are given how much nicer and more desirable the 150s are. At the moment, I think we know the backs of 51 Planks:

SC150/25 - 2
SC150/30 - 9
PD150 - 5
SC350/30 - 35

16/51 (31.4%) of these are 150 series. Applying this to the total of 90 above, that means we have 28 of the 150s and 62 of the 350s.

[mrvster]

Great stuff!!!

yes!!! lets keep this going

omg great fun thread Mike

[Pat R]

Originally Posted by Jobu

The galleries on the T206 Resource show 46 Wagners and 64 Planks. There are almost certainly more of each out there, but given the status of these cards in the hobby and the amount of time that people have been following them, it seems to me that the ratio between these might at least be close.

I can make an argument for a slightly larger % of unknown Planks than unknown/not in the gallery Wagners. The Resource ratio is 64/46 Plank/Wagner, or 1.39:1. If we bump this up to assume a few more missing Planks than Wagners, say 1.5:1 and go with 60 Wagners, that gets us to 90 Planks.

I think a more interesting question for Plank is how many 150 vs 350 there are given how much nicer and more desirable the 150s are. At the moment, I think we know the backs of 51 Planks:

SC150/25 - 2
SC150/30 - 9
PD150 - 5
SC350/30 - 35

16/51 (31.4%) of these are 150 series. Applying this to the total of 90 above, that means we have 28 of the 150s and 62 of the 350s.

This is the Wagner backs that I know of

SC150/25 - 16
SC150/30 - 4
PD150 - 3

The long time Hobby claim is that one of the Piedmont 150 Plank's was on the same sheet as the PSA 8 Wagner. I'm not so sure that's true and the back disparity certainly shows they weren't on the same sheet for long if they were.

[brass_rat]

Hey Bryan,

Great numbers. I do, however, hesitate to think that there are many more than 50 Wagners. Within the T206 Resource 46, there are raw cards that haven't seen the light of day for 30-40 years. People have tracked and publicized finds since what, the 1940s or even earlier?

Wagners (and Planks) that do come up have largely found homes through dealers and auctions for a long time, decreasing the likelihood that there are another 14 Wagners resting in collections unknown to the hobby.

I like your 3:2 Plank:Wagner ratio and would suggest 75:50.
Also, this implies the Plank 150 and Plank 350 counts to be 24 and 51, respectively.

Cheers,
Steve

[Rhotchkiss]

I agree with you Steve. I doubt there are more than 50 Wagners and there are likely 75-80 Planks

9 Doyles
20+/- Brown Old Mills
25+/- Cobb backs
30+/- Brown Lenox
50 Wagners

Then I generally like the rest of Johnny’s list, my opinion without investigation, in order of rarity, without opining as to count

BL 460
Proof
Blank
Plank
Drum
Uzit
Magie error
T213
T215-1
Red Hindu
Carolina Brights
BL 350
Hindu

Definitely not t206, but certainly noteworthy bc the have same fronts are
T215 pirate (wicked stupid rare - like Doyle rare, except for one complete set (missing one) that will never be broken up
T214 victory - approximate rare as BL 460??
T215-2

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by FrankWakefield

I think there's twice that number of Wagner cards.

It's interesting, in general there seem to be two schools of thought. One says the last three decades or so of exploding prices and the internet and just the passage of time have brought most of the rarities and high grade material out into the open. The other believes there are still vast numbers of amazing but unknown raw collections buried deep out there somewhere. I tend to believe that if the latter were still true we would see more "finds" than we do coming out still, as people pass on, their families move their collections, etc., but truly I don't know.

BTW, what is the more recent previously undocumented Wagner to surface?

[Exhibitman]

I think we're actually premature to declare the old-school collections tapped out. I know quite a few collectors in the 50-75 y.o. range who have been actively collecting for 50-70 years, have insane collections that they do not broadcast, and who do not generally bother with slabbing unless they are selling something. Those collectors tend to favor prewar cards rather heavily and have a good number of rare cards sitting in their binders. 25 years from now is more likely when we can start saying the OG raw collections are winding down.

[BearBailey]

Didn’t Cooperstown have an exhibit one year tht was the largest collection of t206 Wagner’s ever in one place. I thought they got 48-55 on loan and they knew of around 20 more at least that people were un-willing to let them borrow for the exhibit? I think it was 1995. It was a really impressive display.

[FrankWakefield]

I agree with Adam.

Several years ago when I first found this Net54 place, I was trying to gather all information I could. This place was a treasure. It still is. My knowledge base before had been a handful of collectors in Kentucky, and then what I gleaned from Mr. Lipset, and his publication The Old Judge. Back then, in the 80s and 90s, I'm certain that there were 3 Wagner cards in Kentucky. (I still smile when I think of holding one for a minute, no slab, no sleeve.) And while I knew of 3 separate Wagners in Kentucky, my guess would have been that there may have been one or two more, ones of which I didn't know.

I think that 'new' collectors that think about grading, registry, and all of that presume that anyone with a Wagner would get it graded. That they'd post pictures here. But that is not the mindset of many of the veteran collectors. Although many of the veteran collectors will get first rate cards graded before selling or consigning them, a bunch of those fellows aren't yet ready to slab up and cash out. (Color up and cash out pun intended.)

Now I don't think Kentucky is the great resting place for old tobacco cards. The state has a fair share, maybe slightly more. And we definitely have the market cornered on ornery, contrary, hard headedness. But there must be a bunch of card collectors scattered about, that have yet to come to market. A granddad passes a cigar box of old cards down to a grandkid in the present, and that kid isn't gonna sell that box of cards because of sentimentality (and because he likes the old cards, which is why granddad gave them to him in the first place). I know someone who got cigar box of Topps cards, almost entirely 1955s, with a very few 56s and 57s. Think about 4 Clemente's all about EX. 3 Koufax's, all EX. A couple of that #2 card from 1955, and a few Mays and Robinson cards, Near Mint or Excellent. I think he got them from his grandmother eventually, when he was little and visiting her she'd let him look at them. I'd guess there were close to 500 cards. I don't know, but I'm fairly certain they are sill in that cigar box, none have been sold, none have been graded. All are in very nice shape. No rubber bands, no tape. Neatly stacked.

The old tobacco cards, the early candy cards, the 50s Topps cards... guys, there are these stashes still out there, UNGRADED and not for sale. These aren't treasures waiting to be found, most folks with these cards have some idea of their value. But they are off your radar.

[Rhotchkiss]

Here is article from 1982 about an auction that contained a t206 Wagner and Plank (the Wagner pictured in the article is my “Connecticut Wagner”, but I don’t think it was the one sold in this auction). Anyway, the 1982 article states there are less than 20 known. Clearly that is incorrect, but it’s interesting in light of this discussion; the article also states Wagner sued the tobacco companies.

I think there are 50+/- Wagners. I do not think there are hidden stashes and hoards that will double (even remotely enlarge) the population.

[chriskim]

I didn't expect there were so little pop of brown OM and brown Lenox. How many brown OM and brown Lenox did David Hall own back then?

[Peter_Spaeth]

It’s a very romantic notion to think of all these true collectors who are indifferent to the millions of dollars their Wagner‘s are worth, but I find it somewhat hard to believe. I also just find it hard to believe mathematically that after all this time only half the ones still in existence are known.

[Jobu]

I don't think we should include a discussion of 50s cards still in shoeboxes here. That is a much different topic for a number of reasons - lots more people were seriously collecting cards in the 1950s, it is two generations more recent than T206, between 1909 and 1950 there were two world wars and associated paper drives, etc etc.

I also don't think we have evidence of all of the Wagners and that there are some more out there - I think the the same when I see any low pop card.

However, the Wagner isn't just any low pop card. It has been making national newspaper, magazine, tv, and internet headlines (read: being talked about outside of the hobby) for its huge sale prices for what, 50 years? And with every headline, the people who aren't collectors but have a deceased relative's cards sitting in a box somewhere are more likely to see the news and cash in. I think this makes the chances of finding a huge number of unknown Wagners a lot less likely than it would be for another low pop card that no non-serious collector ever knew was worth a ton of money.

I went with 60 because I want to think that Steve and Ryan are right and the total number is a bit above 50, but I always push my comfort on how many cards I assume are still out there. And there may well be some 90+-year-old collectors who bought unknown Wagners before the 1960s when it seems that people really started keeping track of Wagners and their stories --- or some people in their 70s whose parents bought them and passed them down and who are still silently hanging onto them, but are there many more than 14 of these people? That seems like a stretch to me.

[Exhibitman]

I hope we don't get bogged down on Wagner and Plank, because the call of the question is broader. I personally know several collectors with unbelievable raw collections of prewar that they have been amassing for decades and that will stay raw until they are ready to cash out, die, or lose control of their collections due to dementia. They don't brag and they don't slab. I am not as clued in to others' collections as some of the more sociable people here, either, so I suspect we could collectively identify dozens of such collections. 20 years from now, most of them will be dead or out of the hobby, but as of right now, lots of 50-75s are still holding.

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

What about the Blue Old Mills? there's what 2 or three of them?

[brass_rat]

Well said, Bryan.

I certainly do not believe that everybody wants to share their collection, scan cards, or grade cards -- some of the "known" Wagner/Plank evidence is indicative of that as well as any existing pictures are small and grainy or are copies from old publications.

I just think it unlikely that the true population of such high profile cards are 25-30% higher than long-tracked public totals.

[brass_rat]

Hi Adam,

Oh, I agree with you that there are a lot of outstanding raw collections out there that will increase the numbers of various rare type cards (and T206 rare backs) and even uncatalogued players in sets other than T206.

My comments were specifically in reference to Wagner and Plank as they relate to the initial thread post and relative scarcity of the big 4 and rare backs.

Cheers,
Steve

[Rhotchkiss]

Originally Posted by chriskim

I didn't expect there were so little pop of brown OM and brown Lenox. How many brown OM and brown Lenox did David Hall own back then?

Brown Old Mills are wicked rare. They are mistakes; they are scrap, we’re never inserted in packs and likely pulled immediately as soon as the printer realized they used Hindu Brown instead of old mill black. According to t206 resource (link below) they have identified only 14 of the possible 34 players who could have an brown old mill back, and in my experience, no player has more than two examples, including overprint and multi-print variations. I have like 10 of the brown old mills. I have not seen the other 4 and if the 10 I have, I know about half have a twin.


https://t206resource.com/Brown%20Old...Checklist.html

[Rhotchkiss]

Originally Posted by Aquarian Sports Cards

What about the Blue Old Mills? there's what 2 or three of them?

I believe there are 3, identified blue old mills - an Elberfeld portrait, a Walsh, and not sure the 3rd (but there is a third)

[Pat R]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

I believe there are 3, identified blue old mills - an Elberfeld portrait, a Walsh, and not sure the 3rd (but there is a third)

The third is the Powell that Ron has.

[Rhotchkiss]

Right!! Thanks

[FrankWakefield]

Sorry Peter, I think you and I don't understand one another's thoughts.
I find no romance in the notion that there's 46 Wagners because there's 46 of them graded, or maybe a few more. About when I encountered Net54 there folks here who thought there were about that many, they weren't aware of 3 I knew of, and there had to be even more on the planet because it seemed unlikely that I knew of the only Wagners that were not graded.

I don't consider those guys out there who have the cards to be true collectors, you may. I think veteran collectors is a better term. But those guys weren't collecting for the money back then. I don't know what the "millions of dollars" has to do with inducing someone who's had a Wagner since the 60's to getting the card graded. And I don't think I'll be able to enlighten or increase your cognitive capacity.

I do feel like you leap on anything I post and then attempt to take a passive/aggressive alternate view. Maybe that can end.





I don't have an avatar, and if I did I wouldn't have an avatar explanation with every post.

My two kids have post graduate degrees, and while they were adept at art, I am not about to panhandle their art skills, nor any other skills, here. If either of them drew anything for someone, they'd give the work to the someone.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by FrankWakefield

Sorry Peter, I think you and I don't understand one another's thoughts.
I find no romance in the notion that there's 46 Wagners because there's 46 of them graded, or maybe a few more. About when I encountered Net54 there folks here who thought there were about that many, they weren't aware of 3 I knew of, and there had to be even more on the planet because it seemed unlikely that I knew of the only Wagners that were not graded.

I don't consider those guys out there who have the cards to be true collectors, you may. I think veteran collectors is a better term. But those guys weren't collecting for the money back then. I don't know what the "millions of dollars" has to do with inducing someone who's had a Wagner since the 60's to getting the card graded. And I don't think I'll be able to enlighten or increase your cognitive capacity.

I do feel like you leap on anything I post and then attempt to take a passive/aggressive alternate view. Maybe that can end.





I don't have an avatar, and if I did I wouldn't have an avatar explanation with every post.

My two kids have post graduate degrees, and while they were adept at art, I am not about to panhandle their art skills, nor any other skills, here. If either of them drew anything for someone, they'd give the work to the someone.

Passive aggressive? Leaping on what you say? Frank I have no idea what you're talking about, this has nothing to do with YOU personally, I just have a different take on this question and I acknowledged you might well be right (although nobody else so far seems to think there could be another 50 Wagners). The only one getting personal here is YOU with that riff on my avatar, not to mention the line about my cognitive capacity..

[t213]

About 20 years ago I sold a group of close to 50 raw T215s (memory serves, roughly 40% type 1s / 60% type 2s). I believe this collector still owns the entire group and is unlikely to sell. Yes, selling this group is my collecting nightmare that haunts me to this day.

[brass_rat]

Hey Andy,

Not to put a picture to your nightmares, but is this the group? I saw this a couple weeks ago when flipping through a 1999 Mastro catalog.

Steve

[G1911]

There were no blue old mills for a century. Now there are 3. It’s hardly the only T card for which this kind of thing has happened (T220 Silver Donovan went from 0 in 2005 to 12 today). There’s still a lot unknown, we see new things come to market all the time. I buy cards/collections every year that have never been seen by collectors before and I’m an unimportant poor collector. There are surely more we haven’t seen.

If I had a Wagner I wouldn’t pay to grade it (what does PSA charge to grade one? They scale with value so it must be many thousands) nor would I post it anywhere. If I had a $3 million card I’d shut the hell up and never tell a soul. I doubt I’m the only one, it’s a small chunk of the hobby that makes their stuff public.

[t213]

That wasn't my T215 group. I sold mine in late 2001 or early 2002. I did have a type 1 Matty white cap, no Cobbs, Johnson or Youngs though. I had many HOF in both types though.

[Hankphenom]

A nifty piece of research would be to list the dates that known Wagners came to be known. If it's been a serious trickle for a while, like one per decade the last few decades, I doubt many more will be coming out, maybe a handful over the next fifty to a hundred years, one or two more in the next five hundred years, and that will be that. And what about ones realistically rumored to be known but never surfaced publicly, is there any accounting of those? I can remember one of the Michalowitz (sp?) brothers--Joe, maybe?--introducing himself to me at a show around D.C. I was set up at sometime in the 90s, and we got to talking about his Wagner, and he said casually, "My brother has two of them." He invited me to come down to Petersburg, Virginia, to see their collections, but I never got around to it. I did verify, though, through serious old-time collector friends, that they were the real deal. I've probably gotten some of the details wrong in my slipping memory, and perhaps the existence and disposition of their cards is well known to the hobby, but it does make me wonder where anecdotal evidence of the existence of Wagners and other uber-rare cards might fit into this discussion.

[Sean]

Originally Posted by chriskim

I didn't expect there were so little pop of brown OM and brown Lenox. How many brown OM and brown Lenox did David Hall own back then?

It's my understanding that Hall got one OM Brown, then told people that he wasn't going after them because they were an error and were never distributed. If that's true, then he only owned the one. I don't know about the Lenox Brown.

[Pat R]

Originally Posted by chriskim

I didn't expect there were so little pop of brown OM and brown Lenox. How many brown OM and brown Lenox did David Hall own back then?

By accident more than he realized.

https://sports.ha.com/itm/baseball/1...ription-071515

https://sports.ha.com/itm/baseball/1...ription-071515

[insidethewrapper]

The Cobb with the Cobb Back has really increased in numbers in the last few years with a couple of handfuls hitting the market out of nowhere. So who knows what is out there. Some guy may have put away 10 Wagners from the factory ???

[Casey2296]

Originally Posted by insidethewrapper

The Cobb with the Cobb Back has really increased in numbers in the last few years with a couple of handfuls hitting the market out of nowhere. So who knows what is out there. Some guy may have put away 10 Wagners from the factory ???

Cobb w/Cobb back would be my dream acquisition.

[Hankphenom]

Originally Posted by insidethewrapper

So who knows what is out there. Some guy may have put away 10 Wagners from the factory ???

Uncut sheets, maybe? But probably neither of these. What's the rate of newly known Wagners coming out in the last 30 years or so, since they started getting tons of publicity for bringing astonishing amounts of cash in auctions?

[parkerj33]

I am very curious about the finding dates of various wagners. I believe the nun's wagner was the most recent "new to hobby" find....maybe 10 years ago?

[chriskim]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

Brown Old Mills are wicked rare. They are mistakes; they are scrap, we’re never inserted in packs and likely pulled immediately as soon as the printer realized they used Hindu Brown instead of old mill black. According to t206 resource (link below) they have identified only 14 of the possible 34 players who could have an brown old mill back, and in my experience, no player has more than two examples, including overprint and multi-print variations. I have like 10 of the brown old mills. I have not seen the other 4 and if the 10 I have, I know about half have a twin.


https://t206resource.com/Brown%20Old...Checklist.html

Thx for the info. Wow! you have 10! What an amazing collection! Congrats!

[Rhotchkiss]

Originally Posted by chriskim

Thx for the info. Wow! you have 10! What an amazing collection! Congrats!

Yea, I have started some really stupid, expensive and nearly impossible projects. This is one of them.

[Bridwell]

There are quite a few rare T206's that were cracked out and resubmitted among SGC, PSA and BVG. This includes BL460, Drum, Uzit especially. I've owned a few of those and saw how they were resubmitted by someone year ago hoping for higher grades. So the TPG count is somewhat overstated on those IMO.

[Pat R]

Originally Posted by Bridwell

There are quite a few rare T206's that were cracked out and resubmitted among SGC, PSA and BVG. This includes BL460, Drum, Uzit especially. I've owned a few of those and saw how they were resubmitted by someone year ago hoping for higher grades. So the TPG count is somewhat overstated on those IMO.

There are lots of them for sure from the rare backs all the way up to the common backs.

Sometimes they come back the same grade even though they were cleaned up a little.

[chriskim]

Originally Posted by Pat R

There are lots of them for sure from the rare backs all the way up to the common backs.

Sometimes they come back the same grade even though they were cleaned up a little.

Would this kind of cleaning consider as alteration? I remember there's a Ty Cobb back has a "TJ" ink mark, I wonder the new owner of the card ever "clean" up that TJ mark.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by Pat R

There are lots of them for sure from the rare backs all the way up to the common backs.

Sometimes they come back the same grade even though they were cleaned up a little.

I think I like the dirty version

and the list at top looks good to me though I don't specifically collect T206
.

[Jobu]

Are you thinking of the Wagner Reunion from the 2004 National? If it is, they only (only!!) had 10 Wagners there - 9 were at the MastroNet booth, and the one that wasn't as his booth oddly enough is the one that he trimmed (it was at the PSA booth):

http://www.t206museum.com/page/periodical_42.html

Originally Posted by BearBailey

Didn’t Cooperstown have an exhibit one year tht was the largest collection of t206 Wagner’s ever in one place. I thought they got 48-55 on loan and they knew of around 20 more at least that people were un-willing to let them borrow for the exhibit? I think it was 1995. It was a really impressive display.