2016 Hall of Fame Ballot, Who would you vote for?

[earlywynnfan]

Schilling
Piazza
Junior
Trevor Hoffman

[clydepepper]

Ken Griffey, Jr.
Mike Piazza
Curt Schilling
Mike Mussina
Alan Trammell
Jeff Bagwell
Trevor Hoffman
Jeff Kent
Billy Wagner

I don't think there is enough 'evidence' on Piazza or Bagwell to warrant their exclusion: Piazza had 'backne' and I never heard anything specific about Bagwell...other than being a gym rat at working out.
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[packs]

They released the names on the pre-integration ballot. I'm hoping Harry Stovey gets in.

[cardsfan73]

Doc Adams, Sam Breadon, Bill Dahlen, Wes Ferrell, Garry Herrmann, Marty Marion, Frank McCormick, Harry Stovey, Chris von der Ahe and Bucky Walters are the candidates for Pre-Integration Era Committee consideration for Hall of Fame election for the Class of 2016.

Call me a homer but I think Chris von der Ahe and Sam Breadon both belong in as contributors.

Would love to hear from anyone who got to see Marty Marion play. Around hear we love Mr. Shortstop but being I never got to see him play I don't know if his defense was so good that he belongs in the hall. I also understand that he was pretty instrumental in bringing about the Players Pension Plan so I am sure a lot of players that came after him owe him a little gratitude.

[clydepepper]

I still say there are two Cubans who should be in already....no, not Mark...


Minnie Minoso & Luis Tiant.
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[cardsfan73]

Originally Posted by clydepepper

I still say there are two Cubans who should be in already....no, not Mark...


Minnie Minoso & Luis Tiant.
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.

I am with you on Minoso!

[Topps206]

Griffey
Hoffman
Bagwell
Raines
Schilling
Piazza
Mussina
Kent
Trammell
McGriff

Honorable mentions to Billy Wagner and Larry Walker.

[kailes2872]

Ricky Henderson was my favorite player as a kid. With that being said, his power numbers peaked in his early '90 A's years. He was jacked and he stole a lot of bases which made his body take a beating. If Bagwell is out because he played with Camanetti, Clemens and Pettite, I am not sure how Henderson is not looked on with curiosity playing with Conseco and McGwire while having his best power numbers.

Griffey was a spindly guy who hit 50+ homers several times in the height of the steroid era and then his body broke down. I know that he had a nice smile and everyone liked his '89 UD card, but, I am always amazed at how he is somehow kept out of the conversation because people liked him.

Ripken played 2600+ consecutive games and hit with power in the heart of the steroid era. However, he did not have Bacne and people thought he was nice, therefore, he is innocent in court of public opinion...

I guess I am just saying that I am fatigued with how we and the writers have randomly decided who was guilty and who wasn't. I am not saying that the above are guilty - I am just saying that someone could probably build a case - but they won't because we "like" them.

Ortiz has proverbial blood on his hands - guilty explicitly - and then implicitly with his revival during the '13 WS run when he turned back the hands of father time. Yet, he is a fun loving and a Red Sock, so somehow, he will defy the odds and get into the hall in an era where writers decide by their gut instict and eye test who is guilty and who is innocent.

In my opinion - for what little it is worth - more were guilty than innocent during the era. The best of the era were Bonds and Clemens. Get them in and then let the rest get in relative to the best hitter and pitcher of the era... - both were A'holes and hard to like - but they could play ball.


OK, let the beatings begin....

[cardsfan73]

No beatings from me! I pretty much agree with you 100%!

[the 'stache]

My ballot:

Piazza
Bagwell
Raines
Trammell
Griffey Jr
Edmonds
Hoffman

Yes, I would eventually vote for Clemens and Bonds to be in the Hall. They would have been Hall of Famers if they'd never juiced. But because they did, I wouldn't put their names on my first ballot. Or my second. Or third.

Originally Posted by Beatles Guy

Mike Piazza
If I had a vote on the Veteran's Committee: Ted Simmons and Gil Hodges.

+1 to this

I remember seeing Simba play at Milwaukee County Stadium as a kid. When he got the sweet spot of the bat on the ball, you could hear it all the way in Waukesha. The man was very strong. Simmons was an extra base hit machine, and there's a compelling case to be made for his induction. Here's a list of the Major League players who started at least 1,000 games at catcher, sorted by career extra base hits:

Ivan Rodriguez 934
Carlton Fisk 844
Johnny Bench 794
Mike Piazza 779
Ted Simmons 778
Yogi Berra 728
Gary Carter 726

Rodriguez is likely a first ballot Hall of Famer, and Piazza should get in soon. You mean to tell me that every guy on this list is a Hall of Famer but Simmons?

And Hodges? I'm sorry, Hodges is one player where I feel the WAR metrics simply do not do him justice. He should have been in long ago.

[Topps206]

I feel that it's wrong to give love to Gil Hodges without acknowledging someone like Keith Hernandez, who I think has a stronger case.

[the 'stache]

Here's another head scratcher. Hernandez won 12 Gold Gloves. Yet, his career dWAR is 0.6.

I watched him play first base. He was spectacular. He changed opposing manager strategy. So how is it that his glove work was worth only a half a win over a replacement first baseman?

[KingFisk]

I am still torn on Clemens and Bonds, as those guys were truly special players even before they juiced. I am not convinced Clemens has the latter day resurgence without the medication. He looked to this untrained eye like he was cooked around '93 and not sure he did enough before then to warrant entry. But what a stretch of dominance from 1986-1992. Barry Bonds was just a tremendous hitter who achieved almost God-like skills when he went on the PEDs. Tough call. Those two aside, my ballot -

Griffey
Raines
Piazza
Schilling
Mussina
Bagwell
Walker
Trammell

[Topps206]

Originally Posted by the 'stache

Here's another head scratcher. Hernandez won 12 Gold Gloves. Yet, his career dWAR is 0.6.

I watched him play first base. He was spectacular. He changed opposing manager strategy. So how is it that his glove work was worth only a half a win over a replacement first baseman?

Stats and metrics favor different players. Rick Reuschel had a high WAR, yet no movement.

Hernandez had a better OPS+ and was a better defender than Ebbets product Hodges.

[jason.1969]

Even as a math nerd, I'm not sold on defensive metrics. For modern players, I'd rather look at Gold Glove voting.

[Topps206]

Originally Posted by jason.1969

Even as a math nerd, I'm not sold on defensive metrics. For modern players, I'd rather look at Gold Glove voting.

People want to act like first base is so easy to play. Granted, it's not as demanding catcher or short, but there's still a lot of responsibilities.

[the 'stache]

Originally Posted by jason.1969

Even as a math nerd, I'm not sold on defensive metrics. For modern players, I'd rather look at Gold Glove voting.

Well, that's fallible, too. Derek Jeter won a Gold Glove in 2005 with a -1.9 dWAR. His defense, over the course of the season, essentially lost two games for the Yankees.

Here's the problem I have with trying to gauge defensive performance. Unlike offense, where you can just look in the box score from 1927, and see what Babe Ruth our Lou Gehrig might have done at the plate, there's no way to accurately gauge how well they did in the field. Modern defensive metrics toss out terms like ultimate zone rating, range factor, range factor per 9 innings, total zone fielding runs, total zone fielding runs above average, etc. A lot of these are incorporated into each other, and unless you have a PhD in Sabermetrics, it's something you just look at, and move on. I'd like to delve more deeply into how these numbers are arrived at, but now's not the time.

How can you accurately gauge what Lou Gehrig's range factor was 88 years ago unless you have a DeLorean, and can go back in time to watch him play all of his games? While the formulas might be sound, the data that is going into the calculations has to be, at best, highly suspect. Using the Keith Hernandez example again, I don't get how his glove essentially won a half game over the course of his career, when he's widely considered the preeminent defensive first baseman of the modern era. Again, I watched him play, though admittedly, the majority of my exposure to his play was during his time with the Mets, as I was too young when he was in St. Louis. He still won five Gold Gloves in New York, so he was doing something right. But unless I'm completely stupid, and reading the information incorrectly, I see that in 1987 and 1988, seasons in which Hernandez won his final two Gold Gloves, he was worth a combined -0.8 dWAR. His best season ever, if going strictly by dWAR, was 1983, when he had a 0.8 dWAR. He won a Gold Glove in 1978 with a -0.6 dWAR, and most of his totals in subsequent Gold Glove winning seasons were something like 0.1, or 0.2 dWAR.

What?

Ozzie Smith had some dWAR seasons with figures in the +3 and +4 range. I know shortstop is a more difficult position to play, but Hernandez played the position in ways that were never done before. You can't tell me that Keith, who would charge home plate when he thought a bunt was on, didn't save a lot of runs by essentially taking that play out of the opposing manager's book. The guy is famous for diving all over the field, making spectacular catches. And the sum of all his defensive plays, during which he won 11 Gold Gloves, is about a half win for his teams.

Look at Roberto Clemente, arguably the greatest defensive right fielder in the history of the game. Are we really believe that in 1966, his dWAR was 1.3, in 1967 it was a -0.1, and in 1968, it was a 2.5?

Clemente's defense was worth 12 wins over 18 seasons? The guy won 12 Gold Gloves, tied with Willie Mays for the most ever by an outfielder, and he was worth only 12 wins defensively in nearly two decades.

I'm baffled. Kirby Pucket has a 3.3 dWAR his rookie year, and doesn't win a Gold Glove. Two years later, he has a -0.6 dWAR, and wins his first of 6 Gold Gloves.

Something is terribly wrong with this metric.

[djrhanover]

Piazza & Griffey. That's it.

[Topps206]

I'm looking forward to Monday's announcement in hopes that Dahlen cracks the 75%.

[packs]

I have my fingers crossed for Stovey.

[Topps206]

Stovey held the home run record before Roger Connor did.

[Tabe]

Originally Posted by Topps206

I feel that it's wrong to give love to Gil Hodges without acknowledging someone like Keith Hernandez, who I think has a stronger case.

Does that make John Olerud a HOFer? They had basically the same career. If anything, Olerud was better offensively...

[Topps206]

Originally Posted by Tabe

Does that make John Olerud a HOFer? They had basically the same career. If anything, Olerud was better offensively...

To whom are you referring? I feel Keith should be in and I don't think that for Hodges/Olerud.

[esd10]

if Clemens, bonds and McGwire get into the hof then joe Jackson and pete rose should be voted in.

[bigtrain]

Are we talking about the Gil Hodges who was an 8 time All-Star and drove in
100 or more runs 7 years in a row? That Gil Hodges? The Gil Hodges who got over
63 percent of the vote from the baseball writers when he was on their ballot as
opposed to Keith Hernandez who never got as much as 11%? Hmmm.

[Topps206]

Originally Posted by bigtrain

Are we talking about the Gil Hodges who was an 8 time All-Star and drove in
100 or more runs 7 years in a row? That Gil Hodges? The Gil Hodges who got over
63 percent of the vote from the baseball writers when he was on their ballot as
opposed to Keith Hernandez who never got as much as 11%? Hmmm.

I could also be talking about the Jack Morris who once got nearly 70% when Curt Schilling and Mike Mussina have yet to reach the election they deserve.

All Star games aren't as relevant as one would think.

[bigtrain]

You could. Both Mortis and Hodges should be in.

[Topps206]

Not a chance Jack Morris is HOF worthy. I am a very vocal opponent of Morris and I'm ready to debate anyone about it.

[cammb]

Tony Oliva

Vada Pinson ( check his stats)

[Topps206]

Oliva just missed, so did Allen, and I was appalled that Allen was that short.

[Tabe]

Originally Posted by Topps206

To whom are you referring? I feel Keith should be in and I don't think that for Hodges/Olerud.

I was referring to Hernandez.

Hernandez: 17 years, 2088 games, 2182 hits, 426 doubles, 162 HR, 1071 RBI, 1070 BB, .296 BA, .384 OBP, .436 SLG, 128 OPS+. 1 batting title, 1 shared MVP, 11 Gold Gloves. 1 season of 100+ RBI, 1 season with 99 RBI. 0 seasons of 20+ HR.

Olerud: 17 years, 2234 games, 2239 hits, 500 doubles, 255 HR, 1230 RBI, 1275 BB, .295 BA, .398 OBP, .465 SLG, 129 OPS+. 1 batting title, one other season of .354. 0 MVPs. 3 Gold Gloves. 4 seasons of 100+ RBI, 3 other seasons with 93+ RBI. 5 seasons of 20+ HR.

For most of Hernandez's career, his "most similar" player is John Olerud.

Olerud was an all-time elite defensive 1B (which shows how unreliable dWAR is - Baseball Reference has Olerud as a negative dWAR player for his career, which is simply laughable, and Hernandez at just 0.6 for his career). Hernandez was the best, no question. But Olerud was just a touch below that level.

So, if you're going to say Hernandez belongs in, then Olerud goes in, too. More productive offensively, nearly equal defensively.

[Topps206]

Hernandez win all those Gold Gloves, though. There was something really good about him defensively. If you're the best defensive player ever at your position, you can have a spot in Cooperstown.

[dgo71]

+1 on the Olerud/Hernandez comp. I don't think either are HOFers but were in that "very, very good" range.

Rafael Palmeiro won a Gold Glove in a season that he was almost exclusively a designated hitter. Using GG's as a gauge for HOF worthiness is flawed logic at best.

[cammb]

Richie Allen was a monster. If Im not mistaken, didnt he use a 46 oz bat?

[Topps206]

Originally Posted by dgo71

+1 on the Olerud/Hernandez comp. I don't think either are HOFers but were in that "very, very good" range.

Rafael Palmeiro won a Gold Glove in a season that he was almost exclusively a designated hitter. Using GG's as a gauge for HOF worthiness is flawed logic at best.

When you win 11 of them, I doubt that's an accident.

[the 'stache]

Originally Posted by cardsfan73

I am with you on Minoso!

As am I.

[hawaiian bam bam]

Griffey-1st ballot all the way, maybe even the all time votes getter beating out seavers 98.84%

Piazza-was very close last year, will make it either in 2016 or 2017

Raines-a very underrated player during his time, was on of the very best during his days, he should get a ton of votes this year.

Bonds-i think voters will start to show him some love. will probably see an increase in votes but probably 2-3 years away. still needs to work on repairing his reputation with the writes, which i think he will do this year as a hitting coach (become more approachable and nice!)

Clemens-simply the best pitcher of our time. was he on roids during his early dominating red sox days when he was legendary? if voters focus on that (non roid years) he should get in or alot closer in 2017

hoffman- mariano lite! easily the second greatest closer in baseball history. with some of the closers in the hall now, if they can make it, why not hoffman?

[the 'stache]

Originally Posted by Topps206

Oliva just missed, so did Allen, and I was appalled that Allen was that short.

We seem to agree on several points.

I don't know what it is...something intangible, perhaps. But when I hear a player's name in discussions like this one, I immediately think to myself "Hall of Famer", or "not a Hall of Famer". There are instances where I'm on the fence, and I will use things like statistics, Awards won, MVP/Cy Young vote history to finalize my opinion. But for the most part, it's an overall opinion of a player built over the years. And, I've found that statistics seem to support my opinion.

Jack Morris, to me, is not a Hall of Famer. While he's had several big games, including a couple in the post season, when I consider his body of work taken as a whole, in my opinion, I just don't think the argument for his inclusion is strong enough. Yes, he won over 250 games. Yes, he had five top five Cy Young finishes. He won 20 games three times. But was he ever a truly elite pitcher? His career ERA of 3.90 is really hard to overlook.

His career ERA + is 105. I ran a report on baseball reference for all pitchers (from 1901 to 2015), not currently in the Hall of Fame, that have thrown over 2,000 innings in their career. Jack Morris's ERA + ranks him 176th on this list of 320 pitchers (I used ten seasons at an average of 200 innings pitched as my basis). That being said, Jack Morris isn't even in the top half of all pitchers that qualify. He's behind Johnny Podres, Mike Witt, Tim Wakefield and Danny Darwin. Using ERA + alone may be an oversimplification of a much more complex discussion, but that's the smell test for me. And Morris doesn't come out of this comparison smelling like a rose.

Now, to Dick Allen. Let me say that, in my opinion, Dick Allen's omission from Cooperstown is one of the most glaring in the history of the sport. Again, one metric comparison may be an oversimplification, but in this instance, the results are eye opening.

I ran a report of all hitters with 5,000 or more career at bats, who were not currently in the Hall of Fame. The comparative metric here is career OPS +. Dick Allen has the fourth highest OPS + of all hitters meeting these requirements.

Barry Bonds 182
Mark McGwire 163
Albert Pujols 159
Dick Allen 156
Miguel Cabrera 155
Manny Ramirez 154

Allen's career OPS + is higher than that of Miguel Cabrera, Manny Ramirez, Jeff Bagwell, Jim Thome, Edgar Martinez, Lance Berkman, Albert Belle, Alex Rodriguez and Mike Piazza. Most of these guys are getting serious consideration for induction.

When I include Hall of Famers in the report, Allen's OPS + is sixteenth all-time. Allen's career OPS + is one point higher than that of Hank Aaron, Joe DiMaggio and Mel Ott. Allen has the same career OPS as Willie Mays and Frank Thomas. His OPS + is one point lower than Tris Speaker, two points lower than Hank Greenberg and Johnny Mize, and three points lower than that of Stan Musial.

How the hell is Allen not in the Hall? The guy was simply one of the greatest sluggers to ever play the game.

[packs]

I highly doubt Hoffman will get in any time soon. He was more or less Lee Smith 2.0 and he's not in. He never touched Rivera and I don't think anyone remembers him as a shut down clutch pitcher. He was just a guy who got a lot of saves.

[Topps206]

Originally Posted by packs

I highly doubt Hoffman will get in any time soon. He was more or less Lee Smith 2.0 and he's not in. He never touched Rivera and I don't think anyone remembers him as a shut down clutch pitcher. He was just a guy who got a lot of saves.

Hoffman had a lot more accomplishments and better numbers than Lee Smith did.

[packs]

Any way you want to slice it he's not a top tier HOFer and should have some difficulty getting in. He didn't have cache like say Rollie Fingers or Eckersley did and his reputation is pretty bland, unlike say a Goose Gossage.

[bn2cardz]

With 55 public votes in (representing 12.22%) of the vote it is leaning towards three possible candidates being inducted.

Griffey 100% (55)

Piazza having gained 4 votes from returning voters and a vote from all three new voters sits at 89.1% (49)

Bagwell gained 10 returning votes and all three new voters votes is at 81.8% (45)

Tim Rains is worth mentioning as he is the only other candidate with more than 70% of the vote with 74.5% (41). He has gained 5 votes and is supported by the three new voters.

https://onedrive.live.com/view.aspx?...C7uZHAmcVGWgwE

[dgo71]

Originally Posted by hawaiian bam bam

Clemens-simply the best pitcher of our time. was he on roids during his early dominating red sox days when he was legendary? if voters focus on that (non roid years) he should get in or alot closer in 2017

How do you know when Clemens (or anyone) started using? That's my biggest complaint with this "they would've been HOFers anyway" arguement. How does anyone know that these guys wouldn't have gotten hurt or tailed off dramatically? 4-5 great seasons isn't enough for HOF induction or Dwight Gooden, Maris, Strawberry and others of that caliber would be in already. Instead of the current stat lines and awards that Clemens, Bonds etc. have, what if we were looking at a 10-year career with 3-4 dominant seasons...hardly enough to merit induction. Who can say that wouldn't have happened? There are too many variables and the steroid use puts doubt over the entire bodies of these players work, making even lofty numbers like 600 career HRs seem meaningless. That doubt is the #1 reason these guys aren't in.

[EvilKing00]

Piazza
bagwell
Clemens
bonds
Sheffield
McGwire
Griffey
Raines

[EvilKing00]

Originally Posted by Tabe

I was referring to Hernandez.

Hernandez: 17 years, 2088 games, 2182 hits, 426 doubles, 162 HR, 1071 RBI, 1070 BB, .296 BA, .384 OBP, .436 SLG, 128 OPS+. 1 batting title, 1 shared MVP, 11 Gold Gloves. 1 season of 100+ RBI, 1 season with 99 RBI. 0 seasons of 20+ HR.

Olerud: 17 years, 2234 games, 2239 hits, 500 doubles, 255 HR, 1230 RBI, 1275 BB, .295 BA, .398 OBP, .465 SLG, 129 OPS+. 1 batting title, one other season of .354. 0 MVPs. 3 Gold Gloves. 4 seasons of 100+ RBI, 3 other seasons with 93+ RBI. 5 seasons of 20+ HR.

For most of Hernandez's career, his "most similar" player is John Olerud.

Olerud was an all-time elite defensive 1B (which shows how unreliable dWAR is - Baseball Reference has Olerud as a negative dWAR player for his career, which is simply laughable, and Hernandez at just 0.6 for his career). Hernandez was the best, no question. But Olerud was just a touch below that level.

So, if you're going to say Hernandez belongs in, then Olerud goes in, too. More productive offensively, nearly equal defensively.

im a huge met fan loved keith as well as Olerud - neither belong in the hof. Keith was great and so was Olerud - but neither were hof IMO

[Topps206]

Originally Posted by bn2cardz

With 55 public votes in (representing 12.22%) of the vote it is leaning towards three possible candidates being inducted.

Griffey 100% (55)

Piazza having gained 4 votes from returning voters and a vote from all three new voters sits at 89.1% (49)

Bagwell gained 10 returning votes and all three new voters votes is at 81.8% (45)

Tim Rains is worth mentioning as he is the only other candidate with more than 70% of the vote with 74.5% (41). He has gained 5 votes and is supported by the three new voters.

https://onedrive.live.com/view.aspx?...C7uZHAmcVGWgwE

Looks like we might be getting three electees and if not four then Raines is a slam dunk for 2017.

[Topps206]

Originally Posted by packs

Any way you want to slice it he's not a top tier HOFer and should have some difficulty getting in. He didn't have cache like say Rollie Fingers or Eckersley did and his reputation is pretty bland, unlike say a Goose Gossage.

What specifically do you mean by cache and substance?

[packs]

Fingers won 3 world series in a row and was WS MVP, along with CY and MVP during the regular season. Eckersley was CY and MVP as well. Gossage was a feared reliever and a colorful character his whole career and a WS champion.

Hoffman was......a guy who got a lot of saves and never won anything.

[jason.1969]

Originally Posted by packs

Fingers won 3 world series in a row and was WS MVP, along with CY and MVP during the regular season. Eckersley was CY and MVP as well. Gossage was a feared reliever and a colorful character his whole career and a WS champion.

Hoffman was......a guy who got a lot of saves and never won anything.

That argument is persuasive to me. And not to detract from it at all, I'll only add that the Goose and Eck were each on the receiving end of the two most dramatic WS homers of the 1980s...both to Kirk Gibson.

[bn2cardz]

Originally Posted by Topps206

Looks like we might be getting three electees and if not four then Raines is a slam dunk for 2017.

This is a small sample, though, and after all the public votes were tallied last year, there was still aprox a 5% drop when combined with non public votes for both Bagwell and Piazza. So I would need a player to stay above 80% for me to be optimistic about their inclusion, but it is fun to watch.

Bagwell gaining so many votes among a small sample may be a good sign for him.


As an update:
6 more public ballots have been added to the tracker bringing it to 61 votes (13.56%).
Griffey is still at 100% (I imagine no one would admit to not voting for him and his percentage won't go down until combined with nonpublic votes)

Piazza gained 5 more votes, putting him to 88.5% (54)

Bagwell gained 4 votes, putting him to 80.3%

Raines gained 5 votes, this brought him up to 75.4%