Random Effects Models, Correlation Coefficients,

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Posted By: Gilbert Maines

and Linear Regression Analysis be darned. It is my contention that anyone who has actually played baseball knows that some people hit better in the clutch than others. Similarly rallies are real and success and failure is contageous.

This is the reason that I agree with Jay that Tony Oliva was a powerful force on the Twins, much more so than Killebrew; and the same is true for Berra/Mantle and countless other combinations of clutch hitters with sluggers.

The primary reason that I value the clutch hitter above the slugger is that in the midst of a rally the former is likely to double while the latter will more often strike out. And rallies produce significant runs, turn games around or put them out of reach.

So what? So: who is the best? How about a slugger who doesn't typically deflate a rally with a strike out. Johnny Mize, the Klu, Ted Williams come to mind.

Or maybe the boys from Sabr are right, all of this is imaginary. What do you think?

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Posted By: Scott

I thought it was amazing how "clutch" Carlos Beltran was for most of the play-offs. Some players apparently get an adrenaline-rush, gather focus, whatever, when under pressure...others cr*p their pants.

When I lived in Houston, I used to dred seeing Terry Puhl face left-handed pitchers in a clutch situation - he seemed to strike out every time. On the other hand, he was good for a single almost any time it didn't count. (No offense to the Canadians out there).

I ran across several articles in the "Baseball Magazine" archives that talked about clutch players - it explained why some of their "all-star" teams included players that seemed a bit odd based on what we know today (basically just a bunch of stats). Clutch play and team play was very important to the fans back then, but today we are more concerned with statistics. Stats are what drives the pay-checks, not performance in critical situations...except for closers.

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Posted By: PASJD

But Gilbert it begs the question of who is a "clutch" hitter. Sure we all have anecdotal memories of who "came through" in the clutch and who yakked in some games we watched, but presumably few or none of us have watched even one team through every game of a whole season, much less have seen even a trivial percentage of games played overall. That is why I think statistics are fair game. Perhaps there are statistics for "clutch" hitting, but your observations about Oliva (just as mine would be about one of my favorites) are purely anecdotal and based I presume on a very small sampling of games.

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Posted By: Scott

When a lot of fans compare their personal observations, it becomes more than a small sampling. I agree though, that in some cases a misperception of ability arises due to one or two events - "Merkle's Boner" for example. If you listen to Fred Snodgrass describe that event you will have an entirely different opinion of Merkle. He was apparently very baseball-savvy and McGraw went to him frequently to discuss things.

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Posted By: warshawlaw

that some clutch performances are the products of extra concentration born of greed for big contracts. How many "clutch" guys seem to step up in walk years? Beltre and Beltran leap to mind from last season.

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Posted By: tbob

there are some hitters who thrive on clutch situations. One who comes to mind is Robin Ventura who you never wanted to face late in the game with runners in scoring position.

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Posted By: J Levine

Chuck Klein, Hack Wilson, Robin Ventura, Eddie Murray, Jim Rice, Carlton Fisk, Rocky Colavito, Yogi Berra, Elston Howard, Vlad Guererro, Garret Anderson...I could go on...these guys always seemed to get a big hit.

-Joshua

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Posted By: Joe P.

My personal favorite.

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Posted By: PASJD

I love Rice, but I remember SO MANY times he grounded into double plays in clutch situations. Hack Wilson stopped playing in 1933, does the poster who included him actually REMEMBER him playing? If so I would sure love to talk baseball with you and get your opinions on the relative merits of players over the years.

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Posted By: J Levine

I was the poster about Klein, Wilson, Berra, Howard, etc.

No, I was not alive for those players but I could talk your ear off about them. My grandfather was a worker at Santa Anita racetrack in the VIP section for many years and was friends with some of the old timers including the Meusel brothers, L. Waner, Everett Scott, Grimes, and others (mostly west coast players and PCL players). He would sit with me for many afternoons and talk baseball about them and the importance of pitching and fielding, not just hitting. My father also spent most of my youth talking baseball...(my dad still plays in a 30 and over fast pitch leauge(MSBL) here in So. Cal. against guys now half his age--he will be 63 in April).

I am a SABR member and active card collector...

-Joshua

PS Rice killed my Angels and White Sox when I was young...always seemed to get the big hit...granted, he would ground into 2 dps a game but the other two hits killed us.

I think Garvey and Rose should be included as well while I am think about it.

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Posted By: PASJD

That must have been incredibly educational and fun. My dad grew up in NY and saw a lot of Yankee and Dodger games in the 40s and early 50s and there is just nothing like people sharing their recollections. Although it's only based on a few games, couldn't agree with you more on Garvey -- what a HR to win the Cubs series for the Padres, for example.

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Posted By: Cy

I am a Yankee hater. But THE clutch hitter of the past 10-15 years has to be Bernie Williams. Say what you want about anyone in baseball (except Bonds of course), when the game was on the line Bernie was the best and always delivered. That is one reason why I hope he makes it to the Hall of Fame, even with less than stellar stats.

Cy

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Posted By: Andy Baran

No one is a bigger Yankee Hater than I am (in fact, my Ebay handle is yankee-hater), but I have to disagree about Bernie Williams. Although I do not dispute that he is a clutch performer, the guy that I think is even more clutch than Williams is Jeter, especially in the post season. His has done more damage to the Red Sox over the years with clutch hits himself than any other entire team.

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Posted By: Julie

he is! I guess all the post season fireworks is just--coincidental. There were even some this year...the Sox' year.

I KNOW R. Henderson scored more runs than he drove in because he was a lead-off man (also led everyone in lead-off home runs), but I couldn't help cringing at the way he choked when he came up in the late innings with men on...you don't lead off EVERY inning!

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Posted By: Joe P.

Both home grown.
I'm not going to touch this one.
I'll stick with O'l Reliable.

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Posted By: dgt

...It's hard to understnd just how good and clutch Jeter really is. His stats are irrelevant IMO.

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Posted By: PASJD

I have seen enough of Jeter to agree that he is, if anything, underrated, not just for his uncanny ability to hit when he needs to, but for the equally impressive ability to make spectacular plays to cut off key runs. Bernie? Fine clutch hitter too from what I have seen, but if I were the Yankees and needed a hit with the game on the line? Jeter.

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Posted By: Joe P.

In due time he'll be forgotten, just like Bobby Murcer.

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Posted By: dgt

.....as you will be

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Posted By: Joe P.

I thought it might.

I was a fan of his for quite a while, and that includes his broadcasting days.
What is he doing these days?