Collectibles Markets vs Economy - Why does it have to be this way?

[Vintagedeputy]

All I know is, I sure had more money in my pocket during the prior administration.

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by jingram058

If you're struggling now to make ends meet, and you're less than 34 years old, and in good health, I recommend the service. Doesn't matter which one. If you simply do as you're told, and don't be a problem child, you'll advance steadily in rank, you and your family will have health care, and if you live within your means, you will most certainly save money. You will have your education paid for. If you choose to leave, you have the GI Bill, education and home loans guaranteed with no money down. If you stay, you can retire at 20 years with 50% your base pay. 2.5% for each year past 20 for a max of 75% at 30 years. Where are you ever going to find a retirement plan like that, realistically? If you stay, when you retire you have health care paid for the rest of your life, either TriCare or VA. You can use either one. You will be young enough to have a 2nd career, and employers will welcome you with open arms due to your acquired experience and skill. You will most certainly have the wherewithal to participate in "the hobby" or any other hobby, frankly, should you desire to do so.

I did 26 years in the Navy. I started out a boot E-1, seaman recruit, and wound up an O-4 Lieutenant Commander. I have a beautiful house with a pool in Florida. In the Navy I was able to acquire such things as a Babe Ruth signed ball (Gehrig and Cobb, too), a 1933 Goudey Ruth and Gehrig, lots of other good cards too, all kinds of working antique radios, and anything else I really ever truly wanted. I'm able to take trips and vacations whenever I feel like it. I use the VA for my health care; my wife uses TriCare. Our cars are paid for.

I found out early on that life is what you make it. If you're in an awful situation, one way to turn it around is in the service.

You could also die. I think this is a big part of why we struggle to grow the military.

Thank you for your service.

[joshuanip]

Originally Posted by bcbgcbrcb

As we all know, we are well into year two now of insane price increases worldwide as never before seen inflation rates continue to soar. Every single thing from restaurant food to supermarket groceries (meats/dairy/grains/fruits/vegetables/paper goods) to every single item in retail stores (Walmart/Target/etc) to new and used vehicle prices to gas prices and on and on and on. Everything up roughly 30-40% from early 2022 prices. Of course, the supermarkets, retail stores, oil companies, etc. are not eating the losses as their expenses continued to increase, the cost just continues to be passed on to the end consumer to absorb everything.

At the same time, just about everything in every collectibles market that I am familiar with (sports cards, non-sports cards, comic books, vintage toys, etc) continues to see prices drop and drop across the board. If you rely on income from these sources to live on, it doesn’t take a genius to figure out that this is a recipe for disaster of epic proportions.

Why does the public have to just sit back and continue to tolerate price increases of everything and just keep paying up? Collectors are certainly not doing that by any means. If our income was increasing at a similar rate, it would be sustainable but income is falling, going in the opposite direction. Can people stop buying long enough to force an economic correction as we hobbyists have seen all to well happening to us over the past couple of years?

Nothing goes up in a straight line and everything has a cycle.

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by Vintagedeputy

All I know is, I sure had more money in my pocket during the prior administration.

Of course you did. They juiced the economy by borrowing from the future lol. But there's no such thing as a free lunch.

Also, this inflation was coming regardless of who would be sitting in the white house.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by joshuanip

Nothing goes up in a straight line and everything has a cycle.

And politicians IMO get too much credit when things are up and too much blame when they are down.

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by bnorth

We are lucky in the electricity part here. It has been .09 to .11 here since the 80s that I have been paying a bill. It still doesn't stop the locals from saying how much the price of electricity has gone up by complaining constantly when in reality it hasn't.

Don't move to San Jose, CA. Our peak rates here are 54¢ per kWh, and our average rate paid is 38¢.

And I haven't seen gas prices below $5 per gallon here in over a decade. We were over $7 per gallon last year during the peak. It's still about $6/gal today for premium here.

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

And politicians IMO get too much credit when things are up and too much blame when they are down.

Very true

[raulus]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

And politicians IMO get too much credit when things are up and too much blame when they are down.

I’ll second that.

To quote (probably a bad misquote) a random political-adjacent historical figure:

“What happens in your house matters more than what happens in the White House.”

[bmattioli]

Let's try this:

List the manager or Head coach that:

" Gets too much credit when things go up and too much blame when they are down"

My choice is Bill Belichick

Second is Billy Martin

[Peter_Spaeth]

Andy Reid.

[ullmandds]

Originally Posted by Snowman

Of course you did. They juiced the economy by borrowing from the future lol. But there's no such thing as a free lunch.

Also, this inflation was coming regardless of who would be sitting in the white house.

yup!

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Originally Posted by raulus

Unless, of course, there's something that is the opposite of the middle!

A reactionary revolutionary?

[bnorth]

Originally Posted by raulus

Apologies if this is viewed as political...but

I would posit that it's theoretically impossible to be at the opposite end of the political spectrum from me. Because I'm about as middle as they come these days. Unless, of course, there's something that is the opposite of the middle!

I suppose that's a rather self-imposed identification, and you may beg to differ, but I'll cling to it anyway.

I believe I am at the opposite end. Saying you are in the middle says you at least care. I can tell you the governor of the state I live in and the president. I cannot name a single other politician currently in any office/position. I don't have a clue who the vice president is nor do I care.

[Smarti5051]

Originally Posted by bnorth

I don't have a clue who the vice president is nor do I care.

In fairness, I think the current president might say the same thing.

[Yoda]

Originally Posted by jingram058

Wow, I was a Pacific Fleety for almost my entire Navy career, with the exception of Charleston, Key West and schools. So I missed out on Rota. Everyone I know who was there says it is awesome. Thanks for your service, sir! I was an Aerographer's Mate (AG, weather guesser) before I got commissioned. Yes, Chiefs do run the Navy! I made AGC while on board USS Independence CV-62. Sad to say she's razor blades now. Indy was a good ship.

No, sir, thank you for your service, a lot longer than mine. Your rise through the ranks from E1 to O4 is a spectacular Navy success story. Well done. I knew quite a few Mustangs and none ever got higher than O3. And you proved that even a lowly squid can have a terrific vintage collection.

I hope you agree with me that Senator Tommy Tuberville should be tarred and feathered. John
P.S. What's tomorrow's forecast?

[Shoeless Moe]

Phil, I think possibly you bought too much during the peak, but I could be wrong, just a guess. I'm still making plenty in 2023 from memorabilia (Tickets, Programs, Baseballs, other vintage oddball items). "You gottta know when to hold 'em, know when the fold 'em." said a wiseman.....or was that Kenny Rogers? Ya had to know not to buy durng the peak. Prices were getting nutty, FOMO was a joke. I loved it. Bought me a truck.

Sold during the Peak, that was the key. And still selling.

and yes prices are down from the peak but they are still above before Covid.

You need to know when to use Ebay when to use an auction house, which auction houses do better at what. If you can be first, be first. Once an item hits the next one almost always go for less. Sold an item at Lelands for 4K, exact same item then sold at Hunt for $800, just a couple months later, could of been me, but my item was first.

So money still out there to be made in this game just gotta know how to play the game....one piece of advice, buy in the Fall sell when the new year hits. No one spends this time of year. It's the After National before Christmas Lull. But come January/February people start buying again. Want say even with Covid & the Peak this was the case, guessing /hoping it will be again come the new year. If not wait it out, or be strategic.

[Casey2296]

Originally Posted by Smarti5051

In fairness, I think the current president might say the same thing.

Ha! Now that's funny on a couple of levels.

[ValKehl]

FWIW (maybe not much) the S&P 500 is up more than 17% YTD. Not all is doom and gloom.

[jingram058]

Originally Posted by Snowman

You could also die. I think this is a big part of why we struggle to grow the military.

Thank you for your service.

Yes, it can be dangerous. The flight deck is no place to be if you don't need to be there. Just one example. However, there are any number of dangerous jobs out here in "the world". There are any number of jobs in the military far less dangerous. And these jobs leave you with benefits and entitlements the civilian sector does not provide you.

[Johnny630]

Jerome has produced the soft landing....

Things are never is good as they seem and never as bad as them seem....

I'm blessed and thankful.

Things will work out :- ) I don't take collecting to seriously, it's a lot of fun and a learning experience.. Just have fun with the cards...

[rjackson44]

I put window washer fluid in my Mercedes this morning at exxon $8 omg lol

[theshowandme]

Originally Posted by ValKehl

FWIW (maybe not much) the S&P 500 is up more than 17% YTD. Not all is doom and gloom.

Val is looking at the right numbers.

Keep buying, put your $ to work on an automated schedule, and look once or twice a year for fun.

[Republicaninmass]

Originally Posted by theshowandme

Val is looking at the right numbers.

Keep buying, put your $ to work on an automated schedule, and look once or twice a year for fun.

You know it's only a few stocks pulling the index?

Going to be the same as the card maket. It's human nature.

Zombie companies and fair weather traders, the modern, mid grade star cards and stubble beards begin to exit

Mass panic ensues, people.on margin or credit cards, those that need to sell or need the cash for some better deal/stock start a cascade of selling

Good companies ie the Mantles and Cobbs start to decline


People see value, and start to bid them up.


Rinse and repeat

We can argue where we are on the timeline, but at no time will it "be different "

[raulus]

Originally Posted by Republicaninmass

We can argue where we are on the timeline, but at no time will it "be different "

"It's different this time!!!!" - Every time, by everyone

Well, assuming the two of us (and our similar minded friends) count as someone, then not literally everyone. But just about.

[Republicaninmass]

Originally Posted by raulus

"It's different this time!!!!" - Every time, by everyone

Well, assuming the two of us (and our similar minded friends) count as someone, then not literally everyone. But just about.

Precisely why you can't time any market, but have time IN the market. Recently I saw someone post "the mantle rookie , 1952 tops, has gone up every b3year for 80 years" my guess, they don't have much time in the market!

[steve B]

Originally Posted by Republicaninmass

Thank you for posting real time, boots on the ground numbers. Others in the arm chairs sitting back quoting figures the see on TV are in the dark. Electricity rates are double what they were as well. Gone from .07 khw to .15 khw and up to .25 during peak summer hours

Where the heck are you shopping?
I'm going today, I'll make a note of those prices.

Gut feeling having done the grocery shopping for a long time now, most will be about half.

I haven't been to a whole foods or anything like that those places are probably close to the claimed prices.

[bobbyw8469]

Originally Posted by Snowman

While some may try to politicize it, it's not really a partisan issue. It wouldn't matter which party is in charge. This is a global issue. Nearly every country is experiencing significant inflation right now. We're actually doing much better than the entire western world with respect to inflation.

It kinda does. You do realize gas is a worldwide commodity?? That is why it is a worldwide issue.

[bobbyw8469]

Originally Posted by ValKehl

FWIW (maybe not much) the S&P 500 is up more than 17% YTD. Not all is doom and gloom.

I contribute to my 401k. 31% to be exact. You can say the S&P is up. I am STILL in the hole from my peak around 4 years ago, under a different administration. And that is with me steady dumping 31% a year. Yes, I am glad the market is up this year. Yes, we are still in the hole. Those are facts.

[bobbyw8469]

Originally Posted by Vintagedeputy

All I know is, I sure had more money in my pocket during the prior administration.

We all did Jim. We all did. Going green ain't cheap. Reminds me of when I try to eat healthy. The healthy food is SOOOOOOOO expensive. You wanna eat like s**t?!?! .99 cent double cheeseburgers. It's ridiculous.

[bobbyw8469]

Also, this inflation was coming regardless of who would be sitting in the white house.

No...it really wasn't. Let's just say that when you attack our energy sector and spend like a drunken sailor, bad things were bound to happen.

[cgjackson222]

Originally Posted by bobbyw8469

It kinda does. You do realize gas is a worldwide commodity?? That is why it is a worldwide issue.

I find your comments puzzling. On the one hand you acknowledge that gasoline is a global commodity, and on the other you blame the current administration for inflation.

When there is worldwide inflation like is going on now, it is difficult to avoid in any country that is involved in the global economy. Gasoline is not the only thing that is part of the global economy--so are many goods.

Everything is relative--and the fact that United States is fairing better than almost every other country in the world with regards to inflation does matter.

[Exhibitman]

Not to derail it completely, but if anyone has ever spent time in Sacramento, the locally-grown food available up there is incredible. My daughter was at UC Davis so I went up there a few times a year, and even the local markets had produce like I've never seen before, even in SoCal. Best fish prep I ever had was a locally caught trout with local seasonal veggies at a place in Sac'to called Grange Restaurant. Kona ia also incredible for fresh stuff. Before I went there the first time, everyone warned me of the high cost of groceries. Not on the local stuff. Besides the farmers markets, I got fish right out of the water an ten bucks a # for sushi-grade stuff, and locally grown grass-fed beef was cheaper than in LA. We ate like kings every night for the price of Mickey D's in a big city.

You may now resume the political bitch-slapping fight.

[ValKehl]

Originally Posted by bobbyw8469

I contribute to my 401k. 31% to be exact. You can say the S&P is up. I am STILL in the hole from my peak around 4 years ago, under a different administration. And that is with me steady dumping 31% a year. Yes, I am glad the market is up this year. Yes, we are still in the hole. Those are facts.

Robert, I don't see how you can be in the hole if you have been investing in broad-based mutual funds. Here's how the S&P 500 has done over the time frame you mention. Soryy that my copy-and-paste effort didn't turn out well. The annual % change is the far right column.

S&P 500 Index - Historical Annual Data

Year Average
Closing Year Open Year High Year Low Year Close Annual
Price % Change
2023 4,234.16 3,824.14 4,588.96 3,808.10 4,495.70 17.09%
2022 4,097.49 4,796.56 4,796.56 3,577.03 3,839.50 -19.44%
2021 4,273.41 3,700.65 4,793.06 3,700.65 4,766.18 26.89%
2020 3,217.86 3,257.85 3,756.07 2,237.40 3,756.07 16.26%
2019 2,913.36 2,510.03 3,240.02 2,447.89 3,230.78 28.88%

[japhi]

Originally Posted by packs

What does entitlement look like though? I believe I should be able to buy a house, afford to raise a child, and send that child to college. I don't believe I'm entitled for feeling that way. Those were attainable benchmarks for every other generation. But for people my age, these are now considered luxuries and many of us are passing on them.

Haven't read the whole thread, so maybe someone else addressed this but....home ownership rates are slightly above historical norms. It is a myth that everyone has always been able to own a home.

And I'd suggest everyone on here, that has disposable income to collect sports cards, can own a home somewhere decent in the USA. US Home prices have mostly tracked inflation save for 2020 to 2022, and those gains are about to be give all back.

So ya, you have the exact same opportunity to own a home in the USA as the generation previous. In fact the low interest rate policy of the past 12 years made homes accessible for people that frankly didn't have the income to own a home. But also drove up prices.

[japhi]

Originally Posted by ValKehl

FWIW (maybe not much) the S&P 500 is up more than 17% YTD. Not all is doom and gloom.

Wages are also growing.

[bobbyw8469]

Originally Posted by japhi

Wages are also growing.

That means squat when everything costs quadruple.

[cgjackson222]

Originally Posted by bobbyw8469

That means squat when everything costs quadruple.

Wages and inflation are both measured since the beginning of 2020:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/...-inflation-us/

Spoiler alert, wages have outpaced inflation.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by bobbyw8469

I contribute to my 401k. 31% to be exact. You can say the S&P is up. I am STILL in the hole from my peak around 4 years ago, under a different administration. And that is with me steady dumping 31% a year. Yes, I am glad the market is up this year. Yes, we are still in the hole. Those are facts.

Somewhat paradoxically, we all should root for a gigantic bear market during our working years, followed by a raging bull market when we retire.

The general idea is to allow us to buy lots of stocks on the cheap while we're in acquisition mode, and then they all pop right before we retire, and we slowly liquidate during the bull market, getting top dollar for our investments.

So maybe we can all be thankful that the market was down for a bit to allow us to buy some more on the cheap?

[bobbyw8469]

Originally Posted by cgjackson222

I find your comments puzzling. On the one hand you acknowledge that gasoline is a global commodity, and on the other you blame the current administration for inflation.

When there is worldwide inflation like is going on now, it is difficult to avoid in any country that is involved in the global economy. Gasoline is not the only thing that is part of the global economy--so are many goods.

Everything is relative--and the fact that United States is fairing better than almost every other country in the world with regards to inflation does matter.

Imagine a game of deal or no deal. You have little money cases. You have big money cases. Let's say Russia and USA are in the top 5 as far as case values...would you agree?? The current administration bragged about doing away with fossil fuels. They have been hamstrung on every opportunity and fitted with cement shoes....on day one, mind you. So our case is off the board. Now Russia's case is off the board due to their war with Ukraine. That is TWO big money cases no longer participating due to being "off the board".........I am trying to make this as an analogy that is easy to understand as to why we are experiencing worldwide inflation. Gas affects us more than you know.......I wish he had gone after cigarettes with the same gusto instead of fossil fuels.

[cgjackson222]

Originally Posted by bobbyw8469

Imagine a game of deal or no deal. You have little money cases. You have big money cases. Let's say Russia and USA are in the top 5 as far as case values...would you agree?? The current administration bragged about doing away with fossil fuels. They have been hamstrung on every opportunity and fitted with cement shoes....on day one, mind you. So our case is off the board. Now Russia's case is off the board due to their war with Ukraine. That is TWO big money cases no longer participating due to being "off the board".........I am trying to make this as an analogy that is easy to understand as to why we are experiencing worldwide inflation. Gas affects us more than you know.......I wish he had gone after cigarettes with the same gusto instead of fossil fuels.

You seem to be under the impression that the US' production of gasoline has cratered. This is simply not the case, with the exception of the first few months of the pandemic when demand sharply reduced.

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/Le...s=MGFUPUS2&f=M

[bobbyw8469]

Originally Posted by cgjackson222

You seem to be under the impression that the US' production of gasoline has cratered. This is simply not the case, with the exception of the first few months of the pandemic when demand sharply reduced.

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/Le...s=MGFUPUS2&f=M

I am saying that Biden has restricted our oil output as much as humanly possible. He cancelled pipelines. Cut off drilling on federal lands. Stopped lease sales. Depleted our reserve. You name it...he has done it......We lost our energy independence under him, which we just recently gained under the last guy.

[BobbyStrawberry]

Originally Posted by bobbyw8469

I am saying that Biden has restricted our oil output as much as humanly possible. He cancelled pipelines. Cut off drilling on federal lands. Stopped lease sales. Depleted our reserve. You name it...he has done it......We lost our energy independence under him, which we just recently gained under the last guy.

Bobby this is not true.

https://apnews.com/article/alaska-wi...bffe771b7af574

[cgjackson222]

Originally Posted by bobbyw8469

I am saying that Biden has restricted our oil output as much as humanly possible. He cancelled pipelines. Cut off drilling on federal lands. Stopped lease sales. Depleted our reserve. You name it...he has done it......We lost our energy independence under him, which we just recently gained under the last guy.

As this article in Forbes from May points out, US energy independence has soared to its highest level in 70 years:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier...h=3dec8b1e977f

"The topic of U.S. energy independence often sparks debate, with many believing that the country achieved this status under President Trump and lost it during President Biden's tenure.
....
In conclusion, 2022 marked the highest level of US energy independence since before 1950. This milestone was achieved through a combination of factors, including the shale boom which led to a steady decline in net energy imports, rather than being solely attributed to any specific presidential administration."

[steve B]

Originally Posted by steve B

Where the heck are you shopping?
I'm going today, I'll make a note of those prices.

Gut feeling having done the grocery shopping for a long time now, most will be about half.

I haven't been to a whole foods or anything like that those places are probably close to the claimed prices.

Ok, went this afternoon, and wrote down some prices. I got a few, because obviously it can vary by product. Ans because comparisons are sometimes interesting
Fairly big local chain (Market basket) right on the line between a fairly affluent suburb and a not as well off city. Stop and shop across the street, so competition may affect the pricing a little.

Ground beef
Claim 11.99
Basic 4.49/lb
"fancy" angus 4.49/lb


2L Coke
Claim 3.75
Coke 3/5.00 = 1.67 each
Pepsi 2/4.00 = 2.00 each
Store brand .99 which is the same price the store brand was when I was in a convenience store IN 1983!
Some places including this grocery store sell he coke 20oz for way more, usually around 2.45.

Cereal
claim, no particular brand or type or size mentioned 6.79
Raisin Bran 3.99
Special K family size 4.99
Chex 2/6.00
Giant size frosted flakes 5.99
Those were typical by company, so every normal sized box by the same company as Raisin Bran was 3.99
Some of the fancy granola type stuff in smallish bags can get into the $6-7 range, but some of it is less.

Chips - here it almost gets interesting
Claimed 5.29
cape cod party size 4.99
ruffles 4.99
Lays 2/6.00
Utz 2/5.00
Store brand about like Utz, but much bigger bag.

Some are closeish, but the claimed prices seem wildly overpriced for almost everything.

Overall, the biggest bargain is the store brand soda, which hasn't increased in 40 years.

Either
Shop around a little, wherever is charging like that is very expensive.
OR
Don't get your pricing from Some blog or Fox or whoever that cherry picks from the most insane stores and most expensive format for each item to make some point. I mean, I once saw some sort of ham that was imported and well over $100/lb. I think it was made from unicorns or something. But I know that's not even close to a regular pound of ham, and wouldn't claim that ham is now $129.99/lb

[Exhibitman]

I hear unicorn ham tastes like chicken

[steve B]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

I hear unicorn ham tastes like chicken

It probably does, but at over $100/lb I wasn't going to find out.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

I hear unicorn ham tastes like chicken

Unicorn tusks are illegal to own.
.

[todeen]

Originally Posted by cgjackson222

Target inflation is 2%.

Monthly inflation has been between 3 and 4% for a few months. .
.

The economist I read says the new normal will likely not be 2% again. Economists will be happy with 3-4%. So we might now be back to normal.

Originally Posted by chalupacollects

This economy was caused by the self-inflicted pain caused by this inept president and his administration the people voted for. Sure, there were supply issues due to covid but that was now 2 years ago. And even some of that was self-inflicted by keeping ships out of harbor in NY, LA and Baltimore...that's why prices increased because people aren't quite sure when the shoe will drop us straight into a recession/depression...or a war...

Not being political, but Pres Trumps tax cuts and import/export war with China caused inflation before COVID. The trade war with China caused prices on clothing to soar even before the factories shut down. My mom, a quilter, was complaining about prices of cloth in 2018. Both economic policies had unintended consequences when paired with COVID and stimulus legislation.

Trumps replica across the pond, Liz Truss, tried to pass tax deductions in 2022 (while already mired in deep inflation) and lost her job after just 6 weeks.

The US is going to see a lot of belts tighten significantly after Christmas due to college loan payments restarting. Mine are $450/month, and I have fewer loans than the average college graduate. I also have an advanced degree. It's probably a good thing. Not sure if it will cause a recession.

Sent from my SM-G9900 using Tapatalk

[gunboat82]

Originally Posted by todeen

The economist I read says the new normal will likely not be 2% again. Economists will be happy with 3-4%. So we might now be back to normal.



Not being political, but Pres Trumps tax cuts and import/export war with China caused inflation before COVID. The trade war with China caused prices on clothing to soar even before the factories shut down. My mom, a quilter, was complaining about prices of cloth in 2018. Both economic policies had unintended consequences when paired with COVID and stimulus legislation.

Trumps replica across the pond, Liz Truss, tried to pass tax deductions in 2022 (while already mired in deep inflation) and lost her job after just 6 weeks.

The US is going to see a lot of belts tighten significantly after Christmas due to college loan payments restarting. Mine are $450/month, and I have fewer loans than the average college graduate. I also have an advanced degree. It's probably a good thing. Not sure if it will cause a recession.

Sent from my SM-G9900 using Tapatalk

The student loan thing is a good point. For several years, that was an extra $12K per year or so that I had to spend on luxuries like baseball cards, travel, and dining out. Mine have already restarted, and baseball cards are the first thing on the chopping block.

[bobbyw8469]

Not being political, but Pres Trumps tax cuts and import/export war with China caused inflation before COVID.

They really didn't. Inflation was caused by attacking our fossil fuel industry and spending money like a drunken sailor. Why are you blaming Trump for Biden's inlfation??? And then you preface it by saying, "Not being political but...."