THE 50 HR CLUB...a very telling list.....

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Posted By: scott dango

Ruth 1920,1921, 1927, 1928
Hack Wilson 1928
Jimmie Foxx 1932, 1938
Greenberg 1938
Mize 1947
Kiner 1947 1949
Mays 1955 1965
Mantle 1956 1961
Maris 1961
Foster 1977
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this is a line
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Cecil Fielder 1990
Albert Belle 1995
Brady Anderson 1996
M McGwire 1996 1997 1998
Griffey Jr 1997 1998
Sosa 1998 1999 2000 2001
AROD 2001 2002 2007
Luis Gonzalez 2001
Barry Bondz 2001
Jim Thome 2002
Andruw Jones 2005
Ryan Howard 2006
David Ortiz 2006
Prince Fielder 2007

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A few interesting things....the first group is a list of all-time greats and triple crown winners (except Foster who doesnt belong in the same Tier).....

The second group has a number of players already found to be PED users......not all there have been caught, but most would agree ALL those players could be suspected PED users...exepct maybe the bookends, the Fielders seem clean....

Third thing i notice about the bottom grouping is that most of these 50 HR seasons were abnormal, looking at the players total body of work.....some were extremely abnormal ( Anderson, Gonzalez)......some players (AROD, bondZ, Sosa) had more than spikes, they had multiple seasons with elevated stats....

the next thing i noticed was the lack of Albert Pujols' name on that list....he has only approached 50 once and has never had "the Spike" in HR's many PED users show....he has been as consistent as they come...If a hitter of his Caliber would have been using PED's like the rest, he would have hit 80 HR's........

.the fact that most of the hitters in the lower grouping are sub .300 hitters, may be more evidence that PED's help POWER NUMBERS alone and dont improve your COMMAND and KNOWLEDGE of the STRIKEZONE like only TRULY Great hitters Have......Ruth Foxx Wilson Greenberg Mays Mantle all had command of the strikezone, something many of the modern sluggers are unfamiliar with.....

Not saying that if a player hits 50 HRs in todays game they are PED users, But the list of Modern Current Members in this "Club" dont look to Trustworthy.....it gets worse when you look at the 60 hr club....

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Posted By: Frank Wakefield

I pretty much agree with all of that... the players, the line, Pujols.

Foster did what he did in a good park for hitters on a team that had good bats throughout the lineup. Someone gets on in front of Foster, a walk to Foster was not a solution, folks after him would drive runs in. Foster had 10 intentional walks in 1977, he hit .320, his best full season average of his career. Most of the time Bench or Driessen hit behind Foster that year, both had solid numbers in 1977.


Lots of balls flew over the fences at Riverfront in 1977. The Reds used 37 different players that season, 20 of them were pitchers... outfielders had sore necks from turning to watch balls as they sailed into the upper deck.

A cautious inference would be that Pujols has kept clear of PED. I'd like to think he has.

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Posted By: dennis

i don't agree with this ....."the first group is a list of all-time greats and triple crown winners (except Foster who doesnt belong in the same Tier)"



imo...if wilson,maris, kiner and mize were playing today there would be questions about them too.





edited to add wilson 50 hr year was really an aboration.as was maris'.

mize and kiner were not viewed as hall of fame players in their day,not even close.


wilsons was attributed to the lively ball used that year.
maris' to the addition of 2 expansion teams that watered down pitching staffs.

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Posted By: Eric Brehm

It is pretty amazing that Foster was the only player who managed to hit 50 in the 25 years between Mays in '65 and Fielder in '90.

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Posted By: Frank Wakefield

poor Roger Maris... he got to bat against expansion teams and watered down pitching. The rest of the hitters that year must have faced only #1 and #2 starters, otherwise they'd have hit 50 something or more home runs.


Oh yea, Roger benefited from a 162 game season... the other hitters that year started catching splinters after they'd played in 154.



I'll concede that the slight pitching dilution and the extra 8 games helped Roger. But the media wore him out... and 61 is a bunch more than 50.

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Posted By: Al C.risafulli

I would put the line before Maris.

Look at the man's numbers, and look at Foster's, and tell me that if they were playing today you wouldn't suspect them of using PEDs.

-Al

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Posted By: john/z28jd

I dont know why you put Foster in a lower category than Maris,but it just shows how overrated Maris really was if someone thinks he was that much better than Foster. If Maris was as good as Foster career-wise he would be in the hall of fame based on the fact he was a Yankee and he had the single season home run record.

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Posted By: Dan McCarthy

I agree with the majority of your assessment but I think that the Fielders, Griffey, Ortiz, and Howard are all clean. I suppose you could say they are all suspected users, but with the way today's game is I think you may be able to group ALL players under that category (even the Ryan Freels of the world - look at Alex Sanchez). Hank Aaron had his career high in homers in his 17th year in the big leagues, at age 37. Today that would raise eyebrows, despite the consistency throughout his career. Lots of sluggers have had career AVGs under .300 (see Killebrew, Mathews, Stargell, Schmidt, etc), they just never quite managed to hit 50 homers. Most would agree that those guys were great hitters. I think that constraining the list to only those who hit over 50 limits the sample of statistics too much to draw any conclusion as far as whether a low batting avg and high home run numbers correlate in any way to PED use.

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Posted By: Scott Dango

wilson was a career .307 hitter with an OBA of .395...he has 674 career K's--713 career BB's....6 years over 100 RBI, only a 12 year career but he was very very good for 6 years....





i wasnt saying ALL players in top list are HOFs, just that the group seemed more legit....

edit to add..i did not create the 2 categories, its a list of players in year order.....i just "drew a line"

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Posted By: Al C.risafulli

Obviously I don't know who used and who doesn't.

But a history of injuries to tendons and long muscles, punctuated by monstrous seasons of 50 home runs, to me, is a sign of steroid use. A-Rod has shown us that you don't need to be a big, bloated, gorilla like Jose Canseco to be a steroid user.

Therefore I will consider every player from the 1998-2003 era - including Griffey, Pujols, Ortiz, Jeter, Posada, Varitek, etc - GUILTY of using steroids. There were no tests until 2003, baseball made it clear that "chicks dig the long ball," clubhouses permitted steroid dealers on the premises and hired inexperienced "strength and conditioning coaches," and there is still no test for HGH. I now consider all players guilty until proven innocent, and since no player can possibly prove himself innocent, I will just assume they all used. I'm already over it, and I can now comfortably recognize the greatness of Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens.

I will also consider any player who had a miracle season, far ahead of his peers and far beyond any other season in his career, during which time reporters noted his hair was falling out "in clumps," GUILTY of using some sort of PED.

I will also consider any player who played baseball after the 1960s GUILTY of using amphetamines.

If an edge is available to a professional athlete, they will take it.

-Al

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Posted By: Jim VB

Maris played 12 full seasons in the majors. He hit almost half of his career homers in just 3 of those seasons (1960,1961, 1962) but, the biggest performance enhancer he had was the fact that he was batting directly in front of Mickey Mantle. He saw an awful lot of good pitches with the guys behind him being named Mantle, Berra, Skowron, and Howard.

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Posted By: Jeremy

I was reading the list and I concur for the most part with that line that is drawn... It is compelling for sure. (Foster was pure - I agree with you Frank... He was skinny, but with muscle and a long swing)

Howard is a big ole boy as are the Fielder's and my guess these 3 would be pure...



I would like to explore with all of you the possibility that Griffey Jr. has always been pure. I have this hunch that he is clean and has been clean since he entered the league... Have any of you seen his arms up close ? I have seen him on and off over the last decade and he is the same size now that he was when he broke into the league. He has always had large legs, strong hips, and of course in my humble opinion one of the purest swings in bball. His arms are average at best...



I can't see anything about Jr. that would lead me to believe he doped...



You can see the ripped muscles under the uni's on most of these guys including A-Rod, etc.



Jr's numbers have been consistent throughout his career (Adjusted for shortened injury seasons) and he never really bounced back from injury like a lot of these doper's did... Roids were used more for the bounce back from injury, muscle fatigue, etc. than to build mass and power imho... (McGwire & Sosa = Exceptions)



Just curious if you guys think Jr has a better shot of being pure than a doper...

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Posted By: Anonymous

We like to romanticize Roger Maris but to call him an all-time great is a bit of a stretch.

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Posted By: Brian T.

I am one who also thinks that Griffey's name doesn't belong in the "unclean list". Do I have proof? Obviously not, but it would suprise me 100x more than ARod's "outing".

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Posted By: jay wolt

"the biggest performance enhancer he had was the fact that he was batting directly in front of Mickey Mantle"

Jim and it didn't hurt Rog that he was a lefty and the short right field
was less then 300 feet at the foul pole.

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Posted By: macboube

What about legendary Greg Vaughn ???????????? He had 50 for SD in '98. He was on the JUICE no doubt, but the bigger question.........What was Caminiti on that year?

The biggest HR hitting JUICER of all time that nobody ever talks about..........JUAN GONE !!!!!!!!! Thank God he is gone!

ps - I agree, Maris certainly is not on most everyone's All-Time Greats List.

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Posted By: Joe D.

"A-Rod has shown us that you don't need to be a big, bloated, gorilla like Jose Canseco to be a steroid user. "


Al,

A-Rod looks pretty big and bloated to me. Always has.


I still hold onto the belief and hope that Griffey did not use.

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Posted By: Al C.risafulli

Ken Griffey Jr. played four full seasons in the majors, never hitting more than 27 home runs.

Then, BOOM. 45 home runs, followed by 40 in the strike-shortened 1994.

Then he missed a big chunk of a season due to injury, and then something like five years of monster seasons (including two consecutive 50-HR seasons), and then injury after injury, including a COMPLETE rupture of his hamstring.

And then a dramatic decline in productivity beginning in 2004, when steroid testing began. After 2004, he only hit .300 once, and never had a season where he approached his career averages in doubles, home runs, stolen bases, on base percentage, and slugging percentage (except for 2005) again.

Just sayin'.

I like Junior too. His smile is infectious, and watching him make those beautiful catches in Seattle was truly a pleasure. He was one of the greats, regardless.

-Al

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Posted By: MVSNYC

FWIW- Lou Gehrig TWICE hit 49 HR's (1934, 1936), and also had years where he hit 47 & 46 HR's...years with 184, 175, 174 RBI's...


only 7 HR's shy of 500.


god, was he amazing.

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Posted By: Fred C

Caminiti was juiced in his MVP year, I'm pretty sure he admitted it. His was a totally tragic story. There were lots of guys on the juice and I as much as I'd like to know who they were I kind of don't want to find out. Who knows how long baseball will survive. If it lasts another 100 years we'll probably see the power numbers drop from this spiked period. It would be interesting to go into the future to see how the numbers will "normalize".

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Posted By: Scott Sarian

Interesting that of the retired guys who have hit 50+ HR's in a season, only 3 have less than 300 for their career.

Hack Wilson, Maris and Brady Anderson

So you rarely have such a season without it being a solid career.

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Posted By: Paul

I have to disagree with the comment that Mize and Kiner were not regarded as likely Hall of Famers during their career. From everything I have read, they were. Kiner's career was cut short by a back injury, so his career numbers ended up being less than spectacular, and as a result he just squeaked into the Hall of Fame. But he led the league in HRs for each of his first seven seasons. That's spectacular and was recognized at the time. Mize was also an amazing hitter and I have never heard a reasonable explanation for why he was not elected sooner.

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Posted By: Fred C

Kiner played 10 seasons and he won 7 consecutive HR crowns. Now that is dominant. He's one of the few to retire and average over 100 RBIs a season in his career.

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Posted By: Joe D.

Al - I guess I am an optimist.

and I gotta hold onto some shred of hope.

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Posted By: Al C.risafulli

Joe, I totally understand.

From my standpoint I've given up the idea of hope, and have been working on trying to understand the logic. At this point, knowing that PEDs were so pervasive, I can understand how using them could be the difference between being a minor leaguer and making a major league club, or the difference between being a utility player and a long-term fixture on a team, or the difference between being a good player and a $20 million player.

So I get it. If there was some shot I could take that would insure I'd make $20 million a year as an ad guy, and all the other ad guys were taking it, then I'd probably take it too.

-Al

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Posted By: Joe D.

"So I get it. If there was some shot I could take that would insure I'd make $20 million a year as an ad guy, and all the other ad guys were taking it, then I'd probably take it too. "

I've seen your work. You need no magic shot.
just keep doing what your doing.
quality always wins out, and you are definitely on the right track.

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Posted By: Al C.risafulli

That was awful nice, Joe. Thanks.

-Al

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Posted By: Dan McCarthy

As I said before, I think Griffey is clean. He's not a whole lot bigger than he was in 1989 and I feel like he (and many others, too) has more respect for the game than to taint it through steroid use. At least I hope so. Perhaps at least some of these players' parents instilled some "if everyone else jumped off a bridge, would you do it to?" values. It isn't like these players wouldn't have made good money without steroids either; all of them have at least some natural talent. At the minor league level it's different, because they have everything to gain and nothing to lose. If I was making $30k a year and could take a shot that would give me a million dollars a year I'd probably do it. If I was making $10 million per year and I could take a shot that would give me $20 million I wouldn't. You can only have so many millions. Also, I don't like needles.

P.S. Al - do you make TV commercials?

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Posted By: dennis

in kiners 1st year on the hall of fame ballot he received 3 votes.
mize was elected by the veterans committee after never coming close to being elected by the writers.
i think both were very good players and worthy of the hall of fame, but dominant baseball greats?
kiner and mize....one dimensional players.

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Posted By: Al C.risafulli

Dan, we do mostly print, mail, and web.

-Al

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Posted By: robert a

Scott,

Let me show you another list.

McGwire
Canseco
Ankiel
Tejada
Giambi
etc.etc.etc.etc.

What do all these players have in common besides being juiced out of their minds?

LARUSSA.

I think Pujols is right there with them.


Rob

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Posted By: Anonymous

Balls may well have flown out of Riverfront in but in 1977 George Foster hit twenty-one HRs there and thirty-one on the road.

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Posted By: sagard

...doth protest too much, methinks...

Tons of players have taken PED. For modern ball players they are all guilty. The sooner we all accept this, the sooner we can enjoy the games again.

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Posted By: Alan U

A few others I'd add to the suspected JUICER list (sorry if previously mentioned):

Bagwell
Giles brothers
Bret Boone

.. I agree Juan Gone one of the most obvious not mentioned very often

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Posted By: fkw

Easy answer





Modern Protein etc. supplements....... and especially million dollar Home Weight Rooms (some better than a Gold Gym)





No need to look farther.



Did Mantle or Ruth lift a weight in their life besides a case of beer or maybe a medicine ball??

Ever seen Ruth or Ted Williams without a shirt, they are sad looking with thin arms and no muscle tone at all (chest etc.)

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Posted By: Frank Wakefield

Howard....

What about home and away at bats for Foster in 1977?? Have you got that? If so, please post. Thanks.

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Posted By: Josh C.

I don't think Griffey used. I think because of his swing mechanics he relied heavily on his legs and hips- if from injury, they start to creak, then he's going to have a dramatic decline in bat speed. The fact that he showed decline at age 36 after five straight years of major season ending or at least major injuries to his legs and wrists is not all that surprising to me. The fact that he resisted the urge to use PED's to gain back that bat speed and add muscle is the more surprising aspect in this day and age. I have to say, it is sad that the one guy of that era who really might not have cheated, is thrown to dogs with everyone else simply because of the era he played in.



Plus, the 1995 season which you speak of him getting injured was directly because of this remarkable feat:







Also a note on Pujols' 2006 season- the year he hit 49 HR. He hit 25 in April then went down with an ankle injury... came back three weeks later and was still leading both leagues in HR by 10. He wasn't quite the same and then not all that long afterward he had a bad oblique strain and really didn't come back the same that year. Still finished with 49 but was on pace for something like 80 200.



Now, I hope that Pujols never used PED's- it's harder to know with the guys who have always been big. I don't think he did. Gut feeling.



Not: I would indeed be crushed if either of those two were implicated. Two of my favorite players to watch. Griffey, I'm too young to have seen him in his glory days... but with the marvel of motion picture tubbing I can witness him in supreme clarity.







-Josh

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Posted By: Anonymous

and if Kingman hadn't missed 17 games in 1979 he likely would have been the biggest aborration on the list.

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Posted By: Scott Dango

missed greg vaugn on that bottom list in 1998....just further proves the point....



Also, Pujols was great before he ever met Larussa and Larussa admitts it...he said in 2001 Pujols was one of the BEST players he ever managed (in his rookie season no less)...and he had 13 HR in APril ,setting the MLB mark for HR in that month, not 25...just for accuracy...





edited..also i tend to agree, Griffey, Fielders and Howard are probably clean....

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Posted By: LetsGoBucs

Willie Stargell doesn't get the credit he should. He played in one of the most pitcher dominant eras and spent the first eight years in a pitcher friendly park.

Clemente once estimated that Stargell had about 400 balls caught on Forbes Field warning track.....now thats undoubtedly an overstatement but consider that Forbes field left center was 457 feet and 436 to center. Stargell undoubtedly lost 10-15 home runs a year in Forbes Field.

The other thing that has always impacted his perception is that he never played in 150 games in a year, in fact only 6 times did he even break 140.

One other interesting thing about Stargell is that he never walked 100 times in a season, despite the fact that he sometimes was intentionally walked 20-25 times. 937 walks in his career and 227 intentional.

Stargell and Rice seem to be forgotten due to the era they played in.

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Posted By: Joe D.

forget home runs....

the one player who I sure hope didn't use.... that I fear a time coming that I hear he did.....
is Cal Ripken Jr.

That iron man streak was something of greatness by Gehrig.
It was a wonderful season, and wonderful moment in sports when Ripken eclipsed it.

If he had "help" along the way, I will be saddened.

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Posted By: Josh C.

You are correct, my mistake- Pujols hit 25 in the first two months of the season... not first month.



-Josh

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Posted By: Howard

Frank, a great site for stats like this is www.baseball-reference.com.



There is a tab above each players stats that says "splits" and it allows you to choose the year you want to view for a particular player. I think they only have that info back to about 1958 though so you can't check on players like Ruth or Cobb.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/bsplit.cgi?n1=fostege01&year=1977



You'll find the home/road splits just a little down the page. You can also find day/night splits, vs. lefty/vs. righty splits, monthly stats, etc. There is another tab that will allow you to check a players game stats for every game of a particular season.

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Posted By: macboube

I agree re. Stargell. I was at Chavez Ravine when he popped one over the roof. A mega blast that was at least 475+++++++++. Truly a monumental shot. If I am not mistaken, he hit it out of Dodger Stadium twice, and those were the only dingers to ever go out of the stadium in about the first 35 years of it's existence. I am pretty certain Piazza is the only other player aside from Stargell to do so.

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Posted By: Howard

I agree w/the Pirates fan that Stargell has been underrated. In addition to the reasons already stated I think the perception of him in his later years as a fat, immobile player has stuck in people's minds even though he was still a great hitter at the time. When he was younger, however, he was in pretty good shape and was actually a decent outfielder.



I believe he had a good claim to be voted the MVP in the NL in both 1971 and 1973 although he did win an undeserved one in my opinion in 1979.

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Posted By: Frank Wakefield

Thank you, Howard.

I've looked at Foster's home / road splits for 1977. I stand by what I said about Riverfront being a hitter's park.

Foster 1977

........HRs...Plate Appearances...AB.....BB.....IBB..HBP.....AVG
Home....21.........346............296....42......6 ....4.... .297
Away....31.........343............319....19......4 ....1.... .342

Foster hit more HRs on the road, as Howard pointed out. He also got walked, intentionally walked, and hit much more at home, which kinda sours one on hitting. And he had more opportunity to hit home runs on the road.

Riverfront was a good park for hitters. Just ask all of those Reds pitchers from 1977.

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Posted By: Jim VB

How is Stargell "underrated"?

He was a career .280 hitter with excellent power (475 HRs) who was a FIRST BALLOT HALL OF FAMER!


He has been rated as one of the all time greats. What should have been done instead? Build a separate wing on the Hall?

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Posted By: dennis

stargel is under rated when compared to clemente.

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Posted By: Howard

Good points, Jim. I guess the reps all of the sluggers of the 60's and 70's have suffered just a bit because of the #'s put up by more recent sluggers. But it does sound a little silly to suggest that a first ballot hall of famer is underrated : )

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Posted By: JERO

He was 2 shy of "50" in 2004, but talk about a complete statistical annomaly compared to his averages. In a contract year non the less.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/b/beltrad01.shtml