Is it unreasonable to conclude that relatively rare cards are held by collectors

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Posted By: identify7

who acted when card accumulations were being found on walls of gas stations, barns, etc. When was that? The 60s, 70s? That would be less than fifty years ago.

To me it is more conceivable that collectors from that period put away (what were relatively inexpensive) rarities, and are still holding them; than it is to believe that t206s and other issues survived the fifty years prior to the 60s - since until then baseball cards held no collector value.

That is, the potential exists that we are aware of perhaps a large percentage of the cards which exist, but far less than all. And our understanding of the rarities which exist may be substantially skewed.

For example, tomorrow a collector could release six complete near mint sets of e107s. Those of us who are not holding these may like that idea, but current collectors of this set may or may not like it.

Is it unreasonable to conclude that significant rarities are not known the the general collecting community?

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Posted By: Hal Lewis

Yes, I think by now it is unreasonable, because most of the "original" collectors have passed away and been forced to do SOMETHING with their cards.

A lot of them have appeared in big auctions since the surviving family members needed to cash out...

while others were undoubtedly sold to dealers who have since "turned" their inventory.

In other words...

the odds are AGAINST an old-time private collector passing away and leaving his cards to another young private collector -- neither of whom ever tells anyone about what they have.


Remember... vintage cards did NOT always bring big money... so 97% of the dealers were always trying to SELL these cards as opposed to "hoarding" them as "investments."

Thus, I doubt too many dealers went around scooping up rare cards in the 1960's and 1970's and then stored them away without telling anyone they had them.

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Posted By: warshawlaw

In classic weasely lawyer form, I speak out of both sides of my mouth .

On the one hand, there is little likelihood of large accumulations of rare pre-1930 cards from hidden old time collectors coming to light. The old time collectors were joiners and corresponders. We know who they were and what they had because they were engaged in a social hobby where exchanging information and conversing with friends was the overriding fact of life. They published, discussed and were generous with their time. They are also nearly all dead and/or done with the hobby, and their stuff has emerged and been sold into the hobby. Remember, these were eccentrics who collected old throwaways from cigarette packs and chewing gum, not "investors". Even as little as 30 years ago the hobby was in such an unorganized state, relatively speaking, that people would just as likely hand you boxes of old cards for free just to get rid of them when they learned you were a collector. I got large chunks of my collection that way. The old collectors were also just as likely to try and sell off or trade off their doubles to get stuff they needed. The odds of some old time collector coming up with six sets of E107s are minuscule simply because old time collectors by and large did not hoard duplicates, they used them.

On the other hand, there has been enough publicity and enough growth of collecting that there are undoubtedly great collections out there belonging to younger folks who accumulated them from say 1980-1990. These collections could, if collectively unleashed, add a large supply of cards to the market and depress prices. These collections are not likely to see the light of day for decades, however, until the collectors die and their heirs sell them off.

I think the most likely source of new cards would be a non-hobby source like the E107s Sotheby's had, the CJ set that sold for $800K, Dave Levin's N172 find, The T226 near set that 19th Century Only had, etc. There is still a lot of junk in trunks out there.

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Posted By: identify7

Hal: I did not intend to indicate that dealers would be the primary holder of rarities. I intended that a person such as myself (who is not dead yet, and could even live as long T-Rex, someday) who was sort of in the hobby in the 70s; could have taken considerable amounts of pristine goudeys or could have been way more selective.

Heck, I could have thrown a couple of grand at the hobby in the 70s, put them in a cardboard box (but not in the attic), and forgotten them.

And I can see my daughters not even opening that box when I die. It is just "daddys old cards". Sure they might think that they could be worth money - but they may not imagine how much. And (I hope) they don't care.

It may not be quite as far fetched as you surmise.

Edited to add:

I wonder if the Maines collection which will exist when I die, will be more or less valuable than the one I could have had if I "threw $2000 at the hobby in the 70s". Lets see .... how much have cards gone up in the past 30 years?

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Posted By: Scot

I promise there are nice old collections still out there. With many more new discoveries. That New Josh Gibson rookie as a recent example. I'm counting on it with some sets...

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Posted By: joe

I know of at least 2 collectors in my area that have very large collections of vintage cards, these are large and old collections with rare and unusual sports and non sports. Both of these collectors have been collecting fo over 40 years. They have avoided the public eye.
Joe

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Posted By: leon

I say it all of the time. I DO believe there are large quantities of cards we don't have a clue about. I think that over time most will find their way to the hobby though. I know in my scant 8-10 years of collecting I have known about several major finds and even had one myself (762 cards from a CA heir). I agree that there probably isn't a stash of nrmt sets of E107's but I do think that "a" set or two could find it's way to the hobby. I think there is as much unknown to us as is known....but that's just my opinion based on my observations....regards

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Posted By: drdduet

For what it's worth, I believe there are many more cards out of circulation than there are circulating. Also, odds are most old school collectors do not publicize. When I joined this board about 3 years ago, I had been collecting since 1976...I was new to the board, but a veteran collector...I know of a few other collectors from my region who claim they will never publicize themselves or their collections(I'm talking about Pre-War stuff).

They don't own computers.

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Posted By: jay behrens

It's true that there are a number of large, old-time collections that are under the radar of the general collecting public. Don't kid yourself though. These collectors are known by the old-time dealers and collectors that are still around, so they aren't exactly unkown to the hobby. Being low profile doesn't mean that no one in the hobby knows about them.

Jay

I've just reached Upper Lower Class. I am now officially a babe magnet for poor chicks.

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Posted By: Hal Lewis

Jay and I are on the same page.

Those old-time private collectors may not show very many people their cards...

but certain people KNOW ABOUT their cards.


EXAMPLE: The "Just So" Cy Young is hidden away in a great private collection... but we KNOW ABOUT IT.

And I think we would KNOW if another one existed somewhere.

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Posted By: Darren J. Duet

Anyone know about the NM-Mt CJ set before it came to auction.....when will the next one come out(and one or more will)....great cards Leon has been posting lately....there are too many intagibles to KNOW exactly what is out there waiting to be REVEALED or discovered.....We cannot know for sure. It would be nice if it was tidy, keep wishing.

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Posted By: leon

I agree with you completely. No matter what anyone says I believe there is far more than we think, out there...waiting to be discovered....heck, just look at our background on the board. Two months ago these things hadn't been seen for 40 yrs...so basically they were unknown. I think there are thousands of these "finds" left.....again, just my little ole opinion.....best regards

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Posted By: jay behrens

I doubt there are "thousands" of finds to be made outside the hobby. There is generally 1 or 2 big finds each year that originate outside the hobby. There might be 100 or so significant hoards of vintage baseball cards and that might be streatching it. I really doubt there are too many more 800 plus card collections out there waiting to be discovered.

Jay

I've just reached Upper Lower Class. I am now officially a babe magnet for poor chicks.

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Posted By: Genaro

I saw a kid whos grandfather passed away. he sold about 60 vintage cards 2 were cobbs t2061 1 was a red back THE other green back. the guy paid 800 each for them a few other collectors gave hime around 3k for the rest. He offered me both cobbs for 2500 each but I didnt have it with me shucks. The were 7 or 8 grade easy.

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Posted By: leon

I should have communicated better. When I said there are "thousands of these finds left" I was referring to the 4 cards that are now our background. I too doubt there are thousands of "500 or more" card finds left....although I do think there are thousands of cards left to "find"....with "find" being a relative term..best regards

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Posted By: darren

There is a difference between the number of cards left to be found, and the number that will be found....

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Posted By: Judge Dred (Fred)

Lets examine some of the more recent significant "finds" that were not part of a known collection. I'll just stick with N172 (or other 19th century) for this example, other people can bring up other card issues. Lets keep this to over 100 cards.

A few years back we had Jeffs Junque (ebay handle), then there was YOWL1939 (something like that - ebay handle) and then the Oregon Find. There's stuff out there waiting to be found. How much? Who knows?

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Posted By: warshawlaw

that's part of what makes it fun!

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Posted By: Hal Lewis

There are TWO DIFFERENT kinds of "finds" in my opinion.

1. Someone finds an old collection of cards that a particular individual had stored in his attic 90 years ago.

2. Someone finds an old factory box full of hundreds of the SAME cards from one set (like the 1926 Spalding find, the Tango Eggs find, etc.)


I am sure that there are still some of the FIRST types of finds available out there... but not as many as you think. AND... what condition will they be in?

Also, in the instance of the individual collector... the odds are that he will only have ONE of each card in his collection anyway.

SO... if there really any card that is SO RARE that finding ONE MORE of the card would hurt the value?


It is the #2 type of find that could drive down the value of E107's if someone found a factory box full of mint condition E107 cards with 10 cards of each HOF.

Do I ever see that happening? NO.

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Posted By: identify7

E107s were never intended to be more than an example of one of the types of finds which could exist.

Some of the types of finds (IMHO) include:

1. Hoards and collections, such as the relatively pristine CJs in recent history, are revealed.

2. Accumulations which significantly impact known individual card or set populations become known.

3. Previously unknown cards and sets enter the hobby.

4. Undocumented variations come to light.

Are there other possibilities?

Do I hope that some of this happens? Well, it is interesting when it does, but it does not matter to collectors who choose to only include lower priced cards in their collections. And although such revelations would heighten the hobby interest, Id like for them to not impact the value of existing collections adversely (but that is not possible, I guess)

Ok, I hope then that nobody finds a stash of Peck & Snyders too soon. Or at least that they aren't new contenders for the first card, or are in worse shape, or something to invalidate their desireability.

That is, unless I find them. Now wouldn't that be great!

Id buy me a great big pastrami sandwich and a pickle. And Id buy one for each of you (non-lurkers only). And maybe a beer, if you are old enuff.

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Posted By: leon

I was luckey enough to find some cards in an inheritance, late in '03.....and these had been in a closet for about 50 years....the gentleman's grandfather collected them as a kid.....so for the newbees on the board here is what I ended up with...:

D310 (12) w/weaver fr....overall gd-vg
D311 (61) all different pr-ex
E90-1 (18) w/Jackson (pr-sold), Joss..overall pr-fr
E90-2 (1) Wagner - nice SGC 20....2 moderate creases
E90-3 (2) common and pr-
E101 (9) w/Evers, Jennings pr-fr....major back damage..
E136 Zeenut '11 (113) w/Weaver in fr...others vg'ish
E136 Zeenut '12 (36) gd-vg+/ex
E136 HR Kisses (2) gd
E136 Zeenut '13 (6) all with coupon
E136 Zeenut '14 (23) 6 with coupon 17 without coupon
E137 Zeenut '15 (67) 24 with coupon w/McMullen 43 w/o coup.w/Risberg, Lefty Williams
E137 Zeenut '16 (1) with coupon
E224 Texas Tommy (5) w/Marsans, w/uncatalogued
E-Unc Big Eater (3) w/ horizontal ex, 1 in gd-vg, 1 pr
H-unc Western Playground (40) complete set vg+
T4 Obak- (2) still unidentified but not Weaver.
T206 Old Mill- (23) w/Cobb, Evers, Chance, Willis.pr-fr
T206 Sweet Caporal ?(1) Cobb 350-460 series...pr.
T212-1 Obak (47) nice mix of framed/frameless
T212-2 Obak (116) about 25 different slogans.. pr-ex-mt
T212-3 Obak (131) w/Weaver pr-nrmt/mt
T217 Mono (8) 3 that don't have back damage......pr-gd
T222 Fatima- (7) all common, 1 high number in fr, 2 cut in half, pr....


best
leon

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Posted By: Martin Neal

I know I have been lucky, But I wanted to share some of my finds with the board. My original find was back in 1988 when a man came into my video store with a box of old cards. I didn't know what they were, small and beat up, but was I enthralled with the look of them. It was a cache of t206s including a Cobb, Johnson, Lajoies, several no B's, a Willis grey background, a Shappe, and a Wagner. The Wagner was a card I had sort of heard about so I bought the 136 t206s for a hundred dollars. Unfortunately, I found out the Wagner was Heinie. Dad gone it !!! That started me on this long journey.
The last two significant finds were this year. Last summer I met a man who sold me about 80 t206s and t205s. I met him on Ebay when he was trying to sell a Cobb on ebay. It didn't sell mainly because he had no feedback and his scans were horrible. Since he lived close to me (Richmond, Va.), i emailed him to see if I could look at it. He then told me a story I couldn't believe. He said that he had been cleaning out his uncle's house with a couple of other family members and he noticed some cards that had been thrown in the trashcan. He asked his uncle if he could have them. His uncle said that they were his grandfathers and take them. Consequently, I met him halfway to Richmond and he gets out of his car and pulss this wad of cards out of his pocket and before he can take off the rubber bands I grab them and gently remove the bands. The first card has a Carolina Brights Back and I started shaking. I made a great deal on the cards and have since had most of them graded. I think I may have lost a few grades in the last couple of minutes the gentleman had the cards. Anyway, I did get a psa 3 t206 bat off Cobb, psa 5 Young Glove shows, and a bunch of great t205s inclung a psa 5 speaker, psa 6 wheat and about 20 other t205s grading 5.
The best find was back in November and it came off of EBAY. I found an auction where the seller had mislisted the title. He did not know what the cards were. All you could see were about 7 cards of a pile of t205s laid out on a table. I won the auction and when the cards arrived, there were 3 Bresnahans open mouth of which two have since graded psa 5s, a psa 2 Cobb, Suggs, Sweeney, a psa 5 Dahlen, a psa 3 joss, 3 commons that graded 6s The most unbelievable cards were an Hoblitzell no stats that graded a 4 and a Wallace one line which graded a 5. It was right before Christmas and at 51 years old I believe in Christmas again.
I would love to post them here but have given up in frustration.
This find may have some effect on prices of the ultra rare t205s but I don't think it will.

Martin

I finally had to ask the guy where he got got the t205s (curiousity was killing me) I emailed him and told him how much I love the cards and if he didn't mind, where did he get them. I didn't tell him what they were worth as that would be just wrong. Anyway, he said his son had goy them from an octogenarian in New Jersey. He listed them with $9.99 start

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Posted By: warshawlaw

both of which are (were) woefully undercatalogued, new stuff just seems to expand the interest of the collecting public. I've not seen card prices depressed as a result of new cards coming to light.

We all like to think of the mythical big find, but what has the real world impact of the finds been? Name me one big find of vintage cards that has depressed the market. Did the CJ set drive down prices on all other CJ cards? Not from what I've seen. Ditto for Dave's 1,200 card OJ find. Leon's find did not reduce the prices for those cards, either. Vintage baseball cards are too big and too vibrant a market to be effectively diluted by anything other than a truly massive find of the sort none of us have ever seen. If someone found 100 T206 Wagners and all were authenticated beyond doubt, it would probably reduce the price for a while, but there are so many well-heeled collectors for the set that I suspect we'd still see five and six figure prices.

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Posted By: Brett

136 t206's for $100 ! i wish i could have finds like that.