Market for Pre War Cards -How far down is down?

Dear Fellow Board Members

Market Softening- It is difficult for us to discern price movements because we only bid on 150 items per year. Most of these items are quite expensive (thus a limited collector market). However, our sense is that prices on high grade type cards,better grade E & T cards are off 20% from their 2008 peak. Common Goudeys and in Cracker Jacks, even in PSA 8/ SGC88, are also down 20-25% from their mid 2008 levels.

It appears that mid-grade common cards are off 35% and lower grade more common cards from the 30s, 40's are down close to 40's. Cards from the 50's and 60's, especially those which are not investment grade (8+) are off 50-70%.

Other than the uncertain economic climate, to what do you attribute the market drop? If June 2008 was an index of 100, and we are now somewhere between 65-80- when do you see a positive change?

It seems to us that some of the large investors have pulled back. The off the wall prices on E Bay's Buy it Now (2-3x) reality give the collector/investor a sense that the market is risky, even if it is only a hobby.

Do you believe that the FBI investigations have had any impact on card prices? Has it acted as a deterrent from encouraging new collectors to invest in expensive baseball cards?

Finally, what items (sets, cards, condition rarities) appear to be bucking the trend? How do you see the pre WWII baseball card market in 2011-2012?

Thanks for sharing your thoughts.

Bruce Dorskind
America's Toughest Want List
bdorskind@dorskindgroup.com

[caramelcard]

Bruce,

T207s definitely seem to be recession proof. Check out some of the toughies on ebay tonight. I wish this set would soften!

Rob

[shaunsteig]

I'm a recent returnee to collecting, so am in little position to comment on the state of the market compared to 2-, 5-, or even 10- years ago. But I'd find it hard to believe that there's any single factor greater than the current state of the economy. Obama doesn't know which end is up.

p.s. not calling you stupid -- of course -- just quoting our 42nd president's campaign slogan.
p.p.s. I have recently perused some of my old Sotheby's auction catalogs from 15-20 years ago, and the prices then would be considered ridiculously low by today's standards.

[tbob]

Bruce- the market for T207s seems strong based on the healthy prices for both stars and commons tonight on ebay so I have to disagree with you somewhat, at least on this set. I believe this is a break-up of the set from Legendary and if so, the winning bidder is making a ton of money by breaking it up. There were scarcer cards (but not the scarcest) going for 2-4x prices I thought they would and commons were pretty strong too.
I don't think you can generalize. Yes, some sets have had cards going for less but some go for more. I think it is just a state of flux right now for different sets and timing is essential.
tbob

[Matt]

It depends on what market you're looking at - demand is somewhat down due to some folks have diminshed recreational funds, which has an impact on more common issues (e.g. Goudeys, Topps) but most of the tougher issues that aren't readily available have stayed steady. At least it seems like anything I have an interest in picking up has not dipped in price

[egbeachley]

The first thing to determine is if the June 2008 prices were true free-market prices (i.e. no shilling).

[joeadcock]

Not accounting for certain issues(i.e. T207), it seems that trend is definitely down for prewar card prices. I have looked up alot of VCP prices recently, and they are down over last many months.
I would suspect, it will stay down(may get even worse), mostly because of the economy(job loss, decreased income, uncertainty of future). Agree with above, this is most likely reason.

[sox1903wschamp]

Originally Posted by caramelcard

Bruce,

T207s definitely seem to be recession proof. Check out some of the toughies on ebay tonight. I wish this set would soften!

Rob

+1

[Tim Kindler]

I think many of the thoughts in this thread have entered all collectors' minds over the past few years. But I believe just which of these points entering a collectors mind is based upon what type of collector and what budget that collector has to work with.

To let you know where my viewpoint is coming from, I would consider myself a mid-level collector based upon what I can afford. By mid-level, I mean that I will spend $25 to roughly $8,000 on a card that I might really want, though most of the time, my average cost on a card is about $350.
I certainly am not one who can spend tens of thousands of dollars on a card. I do consider myself blessed knowing that I can spend more than $10 at a time on a card. Let's face it, many collectors can only afford $10-$20 at a time on something...and there is nothing wrong with that. We all collect what we enjoy and hopefully what we can afford without breaking the bank. That's what makes collecting enjoyable for all of us.


The following are some of my thoughts and what I think most mid-level collectors probably think; though I could be way off.

For example, concerning the prices on high grade or extreme rarity cards, most collectors (including myself) aren't concerned because they know they would never be able to afford them anyway. Becasue of this, I think most of us aren't concerned about the Feds stepping in and making an impact.

I have actually enjoyed the fact that prices have come down in recent times. Again speaking for mid to low range budget collectors out there, it has made collecting more affordable and enjoyable. As a lover of the game and baseball history, I collect primarily for the love of the hobby, not for an investment. I think it is great that some of those who are only in the hobby for financial gain have left because of the economy and down turn in the prices of cards. Oh don't get me wrong, I have some valuable cards and rarities that I don't want the bottom to fall out of, but for the most part, I am enjoying the cheaper E and T cards that are now out there for collectors with budgets like me to get. I am a little fearful that my larger investments will turn out to be duds, but just like the weather and most aspects of life, I don't think I can control it.

I don't see anything after WWII bucking the trend except for the tried and true sets such as 52 Topps. I do think that the E cards will buck the trend because their availability to buyers seems to be drying up in my opinion. For example, I collect E98s. Over the past 2 years, I have seen only a handful of them for sale and usually just one at a time, such as in the last Legacy auction. ( AND it happened to be a high grade Mathewson that went for over $16 Grand which I could never afford anyway). Even REA only offedered one for sale in its annual auction. I hardly ever see them on the BST and the BIN ones on ebay are WAY over priced and most of them have been on there for months. I also think that all vintage cards at lower grades will hold there value because there will be more collectors at those levels with the current economic conditions.

Just a few of my thoughts,
Tim Kindler

[nolemmings]

I would agree that more than anything else, it is the economy. As for the statement:

Obama doesn't know which end is up.

, I would ask that you keep your political opinions to yourself, or expect to be challenged. Unless you are prepared to debate economics. I might suggest that you kick back on your couch tuned into FOX news, wring your hands with the obligatory "the sky is falling" chant, phone or e-mail some other "real Americans" and "patriots", and find someone new to hate.

[Tim Kindler]

Todd,
I think we would all agree that the economy ceratinly has alot to do with many of the issues being discussed in this thread. Who's fault for these things occurring could also be debated. Unfortunately there are MANY, MANY factors why the global and US economies are down. I agree that the statement made about President Obama (Yes, I did call him President Obama, because even if I didn't vote for him, I still respect him and the office of the Presidency) by shaunsteig was not neccessary because again this board should be about our hobby, but I also have to take issue with the fact that since you challenged someone on thier issue, then I have to challenge you on the fact that I watch Fox news and hope you can find someone new to hate.

Todd, That last sentence sounded kinda childish didn't it. What I should have said was that I watch Fox news and take offense to people stereotyping me because I watch that channel, just as someone from the other side of the political table should be offended if someone spoke unkindly of them because they watched ABC or CNN. The bottom line is that we are all Americans who are free to agree and disagree with each other in our feelings and debates on issues suchas President Obama, President Bush, or whomever might be running the country, but let's keep our threads focussed on Baseball and Baseball Cards. I apologize for getting off topic and hope that Todd, myself, and everyone else continues to enjoy collecting and worry about politics somewhere else.

[Griffins]

well said Todd.

[Al C.risafulli]

In a prewar set that i watch very closely, an example of a card in the NM-MT grade just sold for about 40% of what i expected, considerably off the high watermark for cards of equivalent caliber from that set.

At the same time, another HOFer from the same set in VG-EX sold for right about what it should have, at a price level its been at for the last three or four years.

Which is my long winded way of saying that i don't think you can make blanket statements about whats going on with pricing, because i don't think blanket statements apply. The higher-grade HOFer mentioned above is one that i need for my collection, but my current economic situation dictated that i sit out the auction. Had i jumped in, perhaps the price would have landed right where it should have. Theres no way to know.

It all depends on who is buying and what they're doing right now. Perhaps this is why t207s might not be soft, while cards from another set might be.

Al

[Cat]

Originally Posted by nolemmings

I would agree that more than anything else, it is the economy. As for the statement: , I would ask that you keep your political opinions to yourself, or expect to be challenged. Unless you are prepared to debate economics. I might suggest that you kick back on your couch tuned into FOX news, wring your hands with the obligatory "the sky is falling" chant, phone or e-mail some other "real Americans" and "patriots", and find someone new to hate.

You want others to keep their political opinions to themselves and then imply that anyone who may disagree this President's economic policy is not a "real american" or "patriotic." That's BS.

[slidekellyslide]

Stay on track fellas. Keep the political talk out of this please.

[nolemmings]

On the contrary Cat, you will not find me implying that you or anyone else is not a real American or a patriot, whatever your political views. You will scarcely find such rhetoric uttered from the left. You will find it, however, repeatedly gargled from the right, especially the Palin and tea party followers who don't miss an opportunity to invoke their "real american values" and preach to the rest of us what must be done to prevent this country from becoming communist, nazi, and/or whatever vile name of the week gains popularity.

[jb217676]

Why did this thread have to get political? And also, all us members here aren't American. Let's keep all these discussions to cardboard for a hoser like myself from Canada eh!

[nolemmings]

Sorry Bruce to have spun off topic. Cards that are bucking the downward pricing trend seem to include some sets in which I have an interest, namely the m1014s, m1015s, and Worch Cigars. T202s certainly have dropped, as have t201s. Rare types seem to stay steady in all grades, in my view, although you seem to disagree and I can't say I've charted it with any accuracy.

This subject was discussed not that long ago, as I recall. One theory is that some of the more mainstream sets have been completed by collectors, who then move to other things. Types from these sets, even high grade, are not difficult to find, so some may be waiting until their overall finances are more favorable to buy what will likely still be there.

[Cat]

Originally Posted by nolemmings

On the contrary Cat, you will not find me implying that you or anyone else is not a real American or a patriot, whatever your political views. You will scarcely find such rhetoric uttered from the left. You will find it, however, repeatedly gargled from the right, especially the Palin and tea party followers who don't miss an opportunity to invoke their "real american values" and preach to the rest of us what must be done to prevent this country from becoming communist, nazi, and/or whatever vile name of the week gains popularity.

You do know that Carville's poll indicated 55% of likely voters think that "Socialist" was an accurate way to describe our President right? Fifty-five percent is a lot more than just "The Right." There are a lot of moderates/independents and some democrats to get to that number.

Before Leon takes me to the woodshed, I will declare that my last political post.

[botn]

I don't think the FBI's "presence" is having an adverse impact on the market--one could argue that it should have a positive impact, if anything, as it at the very least gives the perception that someone is looking out for those who buy sports cards.

I do not track the super high grade (post war 9s and 10s) or low population post war cards but watch most other aspects of the market and agree with Bruce's research. Prices are down across the board, some areas have been harder hit than others, simply from a lack of credit, lack of liquidity, lack of confidence in an economic recovery and the basic realization that what most of us were worth in 2008 is not what we are worth now.

Pricing is somewhat unpredictable at this time due to limited resources. There are fewer people willing or able to be significant under bidders at this time. So while the winners of these cards maybe willing to spend more, there are not enough real bidders underneath them to drive up the prices. Most people are being much more cautious.

I see much of the same continuing through 2011 and just hoping it does not get much worse. Unlike the US stock market, the card market is accurately reflecting the economic landscape.

[benjulmag]

Bruce asked an interesting question, one that I asked a prominent dealer who has been in the hobby for over 30 years. That person told me that in his opinion, the current market is the softest he's seen it since the early 80s (though to put that in perspective, even in this soft market cards values are exponentially higher than they were then). He believes the main reason for it is that the whales, who were largely responsible for driving the prices though the roof to complete/upgrade their registry sets, are for the most part out of the market now. And they have not been replaced by the next generation of whales. He does not believe the current FBI investigations are a major factor.

I think that what this dealer says is certainly a credible explanation for the soft market. But I also think another big reason is the sorry state of the economy. I'm in commercial real estate and business is the worst I can remember since the recession of the early 80s. People I know in other fields report similarly dismal activity, some shockingly below previous years.

Like all business cycles, in time we will come out of this one. Though given its depth, I believe it will take a lot longer than any previous downturn since the Great Depression. But as to baseball cards, even when the economy strengthens, it is unclear how robust the rebound will be, even if a new generation of whales enters the hobby. Part of my caution is that I do believe the current FBI investigations could have a major impact, especially if there are indictments and some major players are criminally convicted. I believe a significant reason card prices got as high as they did was because of fraudulent activity - shilling (which includes the act of suggesting to investor clients that they bid on certain lots the auctioneer knows another collector will bid very high on) and the reporting of "sales" that never took place. I believe part of the reason some recent high profile auctions did not do nearly as well as in the past, as measured by price realized per lot (as opposed to overall auction gross), is because of the auction houses' concerns that too many investigative eyes might be watching, and therefore this might be a good time to start running a clean(er) auction.

[barrysloate]

No question prices are way down across the board, despite the fact that some key rare cards are still performing well. There are a number of factors for this. The biggest of course is the terrible state of our economy. Not much you can do about that. Also, as cited by Corey, many of the whales are now selling their collections, and that has a huge impact on prices from top to bottom.

Also, don't underestimate that the baby boomers are getting older, and are now realizing that they don't have enough money for retirement. I heard a statistic on the radio recently, don't know where it came from but I will share it. According to a survey, 46% of baby boomers will run out of money in their lifetime. Have no idea if it's true, but if it is that is one of the scariest things I've ever heard.

Finally, this hobby has matured. It's not the "New" hobby of the 80's that was getting all this media attention and bringing in new collectors by droves. If anything, the media regards the hobby as infested with fraud, so it's not bringing in as many new collectors.

I think we have a confluence of many things happening at once. But if I had to pick the most important one, I would go with the bad economy.

[calvindog]

Corey, I agree. Fake prices are still rolling in and shill bidding is still going on, all impacting pricing. The crooks in our hobby don't even care that the FBI is watching half the time. It will take incarceration in a cell with no internet access for some of the fraudsters to stop.

[vintagechris]

One reason I believe card prices are down is the fact it is getting harder to sell cards at a profit on ebay. I think in 2008 people would pay more for cards because they still felt like they could flip them for profit.

With ebays higher fees, I believe more and more people are buying less because they can't flip for profit.

Ebays fees also force many sellers to list items at higher fixed prices. Prices that may be higher than market value. This then causes people to not shop as much.

Used to be people would go on ebay everyday and look at the auctions. I think less people do that now because there are fewer and fewer auctions.

I don't think this is the sole reason for lower prices, but I do strongly believe it has something to do with it.

Especially with higher dollar cards on ebay. Very hard to flip those for a profit.

I am enjoying the dip actually so I can get some stuff I want at discounts.

[bbcard1]

I collect pretty pedestrian stuff (low grade t206s...collector grade other stuff) and haven't really seen a huge drop. A low grade t card is still around $10-$20 just like it has been forever. I have been surprised at some to the 30's weaknesses, esp the Diamond Stars which are a classically beautiful set. I actually think the 3s and 4s will have more softness than the 1s and 2s and the 7s +. I have not seen many bargain prices on the top shelf players from most any era...Mantle, Ruth, DiMaggio, Cobb, Gehrig...when it comes to retailing.

I saw a Lipset quote from years ago that I think explains a lot...he was talking about the pre-1900 stuff...he said that the market was strong but thin...meaning that there was big money being thrown at it but only by a few people are playing. I think the combination of the economy and people already obtaining what they were looking for (I no longer need a 1967 Brooks Robinson because I have bought a 1967 Brooks Robinson therefore while I once was a potential buyer, I am no longer one) is the reason for the problems in the market...especially in auctions.

[T206Collector]

I concur that T206 prices on low-grade cardboard has been relatively stable over the decade or so that I've been participating. They are the bonds, if you will, of the baseball card industry. No risk and the market will always be there.

[Ladder7]

Kids (and adults) have so many entertainment options today. The money is there, just misdirected. If we displayed our items and didn't lock 'em away, I believe it'd serve us in a couple of ways.

I've displayed some stuff several times and the interest was highly positive. I'm planning on setting up another display at the community ctr around Playoff time. It's only takes a couple of hours, but goes a long way.

I was at work last year and a LL game was going on in the field behind the station. One of the coaches is a good friend, so I asked him to see if the kids would like to see some old cards after the game. A few did, and were awestruck by my low-end collection. Sadly, only one LL'r collected cards -because his dad was active in it.

We should be ambassadors, not reclusive. Crack your safes once in a while, it could pay dividends. And they couldn't care if a Cobb is Poor or Mint. You can see it in their smiles, like magic, people soak this stuff up. They're just rarely exposed to it.

[insidethewrapper]

As always : demand vs supply. The next generation just will not demand the way the "baby boomers" did. We grew up in the 50's and 60's and baseball was all that mattered to most of us. It only matters to a few of the kids now. Just check and see if you see any kids playing ball in your neighborhood. My kids ( now in there 20's) did not collect cards. There will always be enough demand for the low supply cards, but the regular produced cards etc will continue to fill auction catalogs as guys like me entering age 60 range get rid of their collections because no one in the family wants it .
When the "baby boomers" are all dead in 20-30 years, I predict the cards will be at all time lows.

[jeffmohler]

I tend to think that the market is soft. I primarily collect 20's and 30's material with some Dietsche postcards and E93s thrown in occasionally.

I just bought two SGC 60 Gold Medal Flour common cards for $13.00-15.00 each and an SGC 70 Rogell (horizontal) for $40.00. Two years ago, I think I would have paid at least 2x-3x as much for the commons.

Like nolemmings said, Worch Cigars are hot, but I can't think of much else in my collecting timeframes.

As far as the cause, I think it is the economy. On many of the cards I collect all it takes is the absence on one bidder to lower the price substantially. In the Gold Medal Flour example, I think it was just one additional bidder that made the Rogell go from less than $20.00 to $40.00.

We appreciate everyone's thoughtful response.

And we especially appreciate the fine effort to stop this thread from turning into political debate. It would be great if the people in office stopped the politics and remembered that their job was to serve the people who elected them (regardless of party) and not to spend 50% of their time attempting to get reelected or bashing the other side. From our perspective it is like watching a war where all the generals spend their time trying to gain influence with C&C and stop focusing on the enemy.

Back to Prices

Corey and Barry brought up a wide range of issues. We agree with them. What surprises us is that "last minute - last half-hour rush" has not happened. Of the last ten cards we won in major auctions- our winning bid was placed one or two days before the auction closed, in all but one case.

As for the thinness of the market, Lew Lipset was correct then and in many, many cases correct today. There are probably only 10 collectors who would pay a strong price for a rare but relatively obscure piece of memorabilia or a high grade (non HOF) type card. There were number of items in the Heritage and Legendary auctions which are truly rare but sold at surprisingly low levels- i.e. the unopened Darby Chocolate box.

In fact the best advice we ever received was from Billy Mastro in 1981 when we had lost every card in a sale that he and Don Steinbach were running. Bill said...." Don't worry Bruce- remember it is only a piece of old cardboard."

Regardless of short time price variations, we have had a 35 year love affair with the hobby. and we never forget our vows- for better or for worse for richer or for poorer. While values will change our love for great memorabilia will be with us as long as we live.

Bruce Dorskind
America's Toughest Want List
bdorskind@dorskindgroup.com

[Mark]

With many of the sets that we collect, supply is very limited, so it makes a difference if ten people come in or out of the market. The economy is bad and people are not sure when it is going to turn around. When it does, I am confident that folks will start buying and folks will start selling. I think that the Baby Boomer demography has to be taken into account, but (1) baseball remains a very popular game with younger people and (2) again it does not take many people chasing even the E95's or E120's to make a big difference.

[iggyman]

The card market is soft right now, no denying that. For the variety of reasons discussed so far and in the past (economy, FBI, eBay fees, end of summer vacations, too many auction houses, etc...), collectors, flippers, & whales are holding back and I believe that is impacting prices. However, if you approach the current market with a five to ten year horizon, then it is a fantastic time to be a buyer. That is the approach I'm taking right now and I strongly believe I will do just fine. I've never bought into the theory that once all the baby boomers retire prewar card prices will plummet. As long as baseball is thriving and the population in the U.S. is growing, new collectors will take the boomers place.

Lovely Day...

We appreciate everyone's thoughtful response.

And we especially appreciate the fine effort to stop this thread from turning into political debate. It would be great if the people in office stopped the politics and remembered that their job was to serve the people who elected them (regardless of party) and not to spend 50% of their time attempting to get reelected or bashing the other side. From our perspective it is like watching a war where all the generals spend their time trying to gain influence with C&C and stop focusing on the enemy.

Back to Prices

Corey and Barry brought up a wide range of issues. We agree with them. What surprises us is that "last minute - last half-hour rush" has not happened. Of the last ten cards we won in major auctions- our winning bid was placed one or two days before the auction closed, in all but one case.

As for the thinness of the market, Lew Lipset was correct then and in many, many cases correct today. There are probably only 10 collectors who would pay a strong price for a rare but relatively obscure piece of memorabilia or
a high grade (non HOF) type card. There were number of items in the Heritage and Legendary auctions which are truly rare but sold at surprisingly low levels- i.e. the unopened Darby Chocolate box.

In fact the best advice we ever received was from Billy Mastro in 1981 when we had lost every card in a sale that he and Don Steinbach were running. Bill said...." Don't worry Bruce- remember is only a piece of old cardboard."

Regardless of short time price variations, we have had a 35 year love affair with the hobby. and we never forget our vows- for better or for worse for richer or for poorer. While values will change our love for great memorabilia will be with us as long as we live

Bruce Dorskind
America's Toughest Want List
bdorskind@dorskindgroup.com

[barrysloate]

There will always be people collecting baseball cards and memorabilia, that's a constant. But it is certainly possible that the economics of collecting will change.

I believe that the generation of collectors who follow the baby boomers will be smaller. The number of people who came into the hobby between say 1980-2005 was unprecedented. It became a national phenomenon. But I don't think you will see that in the future. The number of people collecting will not be what it is today, and we are not likely to see the crazy runaway prices we've seen in the past. It's certainly possible it will be a healthy hobby, and that there will be well-heeled collectors ready to sink some money into it.

But I don't think it will be anything like what we've experienced in our generation. Things change, that's just a fact.

[eb548]

While some trends might point towards downward movement in the pricing curve, i argue that this trend is typical to any (non-recession proof) hobby. Nonetheless, this is ABSOLUTELY NOT the case hobby-wide. "MArket Softening" which was mentioned in the initial post by Bruce is relative. Look at t206s, t206 rare backs, tougher t207's, high grade hall of famers in the more "popular and widely traded sets", cracker jacks etc. Those who probably focus/collect these sets and types most probably do not feel a significant softening, if any. The hobby is like any other hobby in the world..supply and demand. Clearly the supply of people willing to part with their cash towards purchase of collectibles is lower in our current economic state. However the hobby is also changing in that the demand is shifting towards more popular sets and popular players.

If you were spending $XXXX amount of money a year on cards 2-3 yrs ago in a perceived never ending upward trend in the hobby, you had more monetary ability to purchase different types of cards and different players with confidence that your money was safely invested and you were buying with good value. If that budget was cut in half to today, this new dollar amount would cause you to prioritize, purchase less, and focus on "safer" purchases with better investment potential (causing many collectors to shift demand to t206's, hofers, etc keeping the market for them relatively stable (and what i forecast as stable for years to come!). As for a an e102 common in a 3..thats the market that gets hit the most. The common card in an abscure and not very popular set is going to get hit the hardest.

Look at t206 rare backs, goodwin champions, high grade hall of famers in ket sets in the hobby, and the most popular cards in our hobby. I see strength!!

[thekingofclout]

Originally Posted by Yankeefan51

Regardless of short time price variations, we have had a 35 year love affair with the hobby. and we never forget our vows- for better or for worse for richer or for poorer. While values will change our love for great memorabilia will be with us as long as we live.

Bruce Dorskind
America's Toughest Want List
bdorskind@dorskindgroup.com

That's a terrific quote Bruce!

[36GoudeyMan]

...and politics aside, I've been following a few 30s and 40s sets, and have seen prices for 6s, 7s and 8s at ridiculously low levels. Compared to VCP's historic review, prices of common, big-set cards in PSA 7 are down as much as 50%, PSA 8s are down as much as 1/3. I watch auctions end and kick myself for not bidding -- even in sets I do not aggressively collect -- because the final price wound up being so low.

However, you never really know how high the high bidder would have gone, so perhaps with two bidders, the price realized would be more in line with historical prices. And that raises the question posed by some, whether the market is really soft, or whether fewer buyers are chasing cards and not driving prices up as much as they did before everyone got their example of Card X, or the economy pulled them out of the market.

I work in the bankruptcy field, and I will tell you from the front lines that real people's discretionary income is as low as I have ever seen it.

I conclude that the softness in prices is due to fewer collectors (for whatever reason, and there are many) not chasing as many cards and driving up prices competitively. Its supply and demand, and demand is way down.

Will demand go up? I think collectibles are the first to go and last to recover. People will be MUCH more conservative with their investments/discretionary income (pay down your mortgage faster, pay off the tuition bills faster, but don't piss your money away on baseball cards while we're in debt). Collectibles of any type will likely be depressed for 3-5 years, and will only recover when the average collector (and all of this applies to the average collector who really drives the market) can start competing for cards again, and that won't be soon.

[Jim VB]

Originally Posted by thekingofclout

That's a terrific quote Bruce!

Yes, it is. And he has expressed similar sentiments before.


http://www.nydailynews.com/blogs/ite...-card-col.html

[Bicem]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

I believe that the generation of collectors who follow the baby boomers will be smaller. The number of people who came into the hobby between say 1980-2005 was unprecedented. It became a national phenomenon. But I don't think you will see that in the future. The number of people collecting will not be what it is today, and we are not likely to see the crazy runaway prices we've seen in the past. It's certainly possible it will be a healthy hobby, and that there will be well-heeled collectors ready to sink some money into it.

But I don't think it will be anything like what we've experienced in our generation. Things change, that's just a fact.

agreed 100%

[ChiefBenderForever]

I think a lot of it is just an economic correction, along with inflation. The whole 'it just takes one extra bidder' is also a factor that can be the difference of hundreds or thousands of dollars on an item. A lot of it is just luck and timing as well. The T207's that just sold really well could cause someone to think it is a good time to sell them and maybe list them in a week or month and only see half the prices just realized, there is no real explanation. Sales are still strong even though considered soft it is a lot of money being spent no matter how you look at it.

[Mark]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

There will always be people collecting baseball cards and memorabilia, that's a constant. But it is certainly possible that the economics of collecting will change.

I believe that the generation of collectors who follow the baby boomers will be smaller. The number of people who came into the hobby between say 1980-2005 was unprecedented. It became a national phenomenon. But I don't think you will see that in the future. The number of people collecting will not be what it is today, and we are not likely to see the crazy runaway prices we've seen in the past. It's certainly possible it will be a healthy hobby, and that there will be well-heeled collectors ready to sink some money into it.

But I don't think it will be anything like what we've experienced in our generation. Things change, that's just a fact.

I agree that things have changed. Thanks to the last 25 years the hobby has a status that it didn't have before. And if it is a fact that things change, then they will keep changing. Interest in the hobby may peter out or the country's ever-expanding population could be caught up in a new wave of interest in vintage baseball. But I still think that in any event the small number of cards that exist for most vintage sets will make them hard to find and will prevent prices from falling through the floor (Does anyone have a Hereclitus card for sale or trade?)

[barrysloate]

Nobody has mentioned this yet (unless I missed it) but let me pose another take on the hobby economy: I think the market we had in roughly 2005-07 was a bubble, and that bubble has now burst. Not everybody may agree with this assessment but it had several markings of a bubble: prices that were increasing at an incredible rate and the notion that they had nowhere to go but up were two factors that support this theory.

Did anyone else get that feeling, or is it just me?

[vintagetoppsguy]

Just want to comment on a few different things I have read in this thread.

Yes, the hobby needs more collectors. More collectors = higher prices. Like it was mentioned, all it takes is one other bidder to drive up the price of a given auction.

True, there was a large influx of people that came into the hobby from 1980-2005. However, the majority of those weren’t true collectors - they were people looking for a quick buck or thinking their baseball cards was going to fund their kid’s college tuition, their retirement, etc.

I don’t think people’s discretionary income is lower than it used to be. My discretionary income is still the same. Nowadays I just choose to save more money than I used to and spend less. It’s a personal choice, not a matter of having less to spend. That will change as the economy changes.

[ErikV]

Just read this in the Wall Street Journal this morning.

How have you redefined luxuries and necessities in the past two years?
http://on.wsj.com/bYaTmI

One of the most impressionable comments that was left is as
pertinent to this conversation as any that's been brought up yet...

"A luxury now is a weekend getaway near home. Dining out is a luxury.
Having a job is a luxury!"

For those of us who on the board that are out of work, baseball card
collecting is probably the furthest thing down on our priority list.....

ErikV

[Jacklitsch]

Originally Posted by Griffins

well said Todd.

+1

[rdixon1208]

Originally Posted by vintagetoppsguy

I don’t think people’s discretionary income is lower than it used to be. My discretionary income is still the same. Nowadays I just choose to save more money than I used to and spend less. It’s a personal choice, not a matter of having less to spend. That will change as the economy changes.

David,

People's discretionary income is way down. For those of us in south Texas is seems like the economy isn't too bad, and it isn't here, but we're the lucky ones. Much of the country is hurting. Families that depend on two incomes are down to one, people are being forced to take pay cuts to keep their jobs, and in some cases people are depending 100% on government benefits to survive. I got a nice raise this year, but I'm sending a good bit of it to my wife's family in Illinois. Some of them have moved here for work.
In my opinion this is the most significant reason that prices are dropping.

[Exhibitman]

The market remains as it has been for much of the last two years. Great stuff brings great prices. Run of the mill stuff goes cheap. Weak stuff rots. I also find that pricing is unstable--things that sell well one week sell for peanuts the next. I'd say we've "lost" the last 5-10 years of appreciation on most cards.

On the plus side, look at the great stuff that's coming to market as some have been forced to start digging deep to part with rarities they'd accumulated. I've seen more really difficult types this year than any in the last several. I'd say in terms of sheer variety of cards available this was the best National I've seen since I started going every year (2004).

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

Nobody has mentioned this yet (unless I missed it) but let me pose another take on the hobby economy: I think the market we had in roughly 2005-07 was a bubble, and that bubble has now burst. Not everybody may agree with this assessment but it had several markings of a bubble: prices that were increasing at an incredible rate and the notion that they had nowhere to go but up were two factors that support this theory.

Did anyone else get that feeling, or is it just me?

I agree to some extent. Certain issues (E cards come to mine) got hotter'n'hell for a while and everyone starting grabbing every example, even if they didn't like the cards much, just to be in position to flip them. That was definitely a bubble.

[glchen]

I think I agree with the many comments that it is the economy that is the main factor in driving the prices down. The question would be whether the downturn just popped the bubble down to more realistic prices or whether the cards are now undervalued. I'm sure it depends on each type of card as there are micro-economies at play.

I also think that the economy has decreased the # of bidders which is a big part of it. For example, someone mentioned the high prices the Worch Cigar cards have gotten recently. Frankly, for the recent sale on ebay, I was the #2 bidder on many of those cards, so I'm almost of the opinion if I hadn't bid, those cards might have gone for much lower prices. I bid on every card and ended up winning 3 of them at that time, and I noticed that I was usually constantly outbid by just 1 other bidder, and that bidder won most of the lots. So myself and this other bidder drove up the prices for these cards. And yesterday, I wanted to bid on a 1933 Willard Chocolate common on ebay, but I ended up not getting back home until the auction was over (I tend not to do snipes). The card ended up selling for $7, and I would have paid ~$25 for it, so I'm still kicking myself. These are just examples in my case, but I'm sure others have seen similar situations for cards that they collect.

There was a recent article on NYTimes saying that this downturn has different effects. Basically, if you still have a job, some people are still getting decent raises. So there are a number of people that still have a good deal of discretionary income through their wages or from the wealth that they've built up in the past. These people can still afford to pay top dollar for cards and can scoop up a lot of cards at good prices. However, other people who have lost their jobs or don't have a lot of job security, don't have money to buy cards anymore so they're sidelined right now. Or they're selling their cards even at losses because they need to pay for their day to day living. This also depresses the card market.

Another thing about the market is that like real estate, there are always speculators. Like the Strasburg card, there are people looking to make a quick buck on cards. They were there buying cards in the past, and this was a factor in driving up prices. Again, I think the downturn has gotten rid of many of them (but not all).

Finally, and I'm relatively new here, I wonder if cards have still withstood the recession better than other collectibles. For example, in the latest Legendary auction, I saw lots for comic books, coins, currencies, etc. I'm not sure if this was typical in the past for other collectibles to be a part of sports cards auctions, but I wonder if the interest in cards is still relatively strong compared to other hobbies where auctioneers are trying to piggyback them in the same auction to give them better prices than they would otherwise receive.

[Jim VB]

Bruce,

Please don't bother sending me any PMs. I delete them without reading them.