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  #11  
Old 11-13-2018, 10:37 AM
savedfrommyspokes savedfrommyspokes is offline
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Originally Posted by rats60 View Post
Ohtani OPS+ 152 Andujar OPS+ 126. Ohtani was a much better hitter than Andujar. He just didn't get the at bats because the Angels saw the value of him pitching. Ohtani deserves the award because of his pitching and his superior hitting.

It is a catch 22. If Ohtani wasn't such a good pitcher, he would have gotten more at bats and put up better counting stats. When Ohtani became a regular DH, he hit .328/.423/.672/1.083 in August. In September. 310/.371/.632/1.003. Andujar had 0 months of 1+ OPS and only 1 month of even .9 OPS. The voters saw that Ohtani was the superior hitter who also brought value as a pitcher with a 126 ERA+ and 11 K/9. He had a historic season and that is why he got 25 of 30 votes.
No doubt once Ohtani was moved up in the line up for the last two months of the season he hit well as he was seeing better pitches to hit and was not being pitched around.

I guess my whole point behind this thread was that there appears to be some sort of bias by the voters...if Ohtani wins ROY in '18 with the abbreviated (but solid) stats he put up how in the world does Sanchez not win in '16 (over an 11-7 pitcher) with stats quite similar to Ohtani ?
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  #12  
Old 11-13-2018, 12:45 PM
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Originally Posted by savedfrommyspokes View Post
No doubt once Ohtani was moved up in the line up for the last two months of the season he hit well as he was seeing better pitches to hit and was not being pitched around.

I guess my whole point behind this thread was that there appears to be some sort of bias by the voters...if Ohtani wins ROY in '18 with the abbreviated (but solid) stats he put up how in the world does Sanchez not win in '16 (over an 11-7 pitcher) with stats quite similar to Ohtani ?
Ohtani's best month was August when Trout was on the DL most of the month. They were in the line up together for only the last 7 games of the month. Justin Upton, a .257 hitter with an OPS+ 122 wasn't providing protection for him either as Ohtani hit behind him the whole month of August. Hit hit ahead of Trout once all season. When he started hitting ahead of Upton some in September, his stats were slightly worse.

These are the OPS+ of the other hitters in the Angels every day line up, 71, 92, 95, 109, 62, 80. Their main reserves were all below 100. The Angels line up was pretty much garbage outside of Trout and Upton. Ohtani wasn't getting better pitches because of where he hit. Gregorious had an OPS+ of 120. 5 of the other 8 Yankees regulars had an OPS+ of 118 or above and 3 reserves were above 100. Andujar had much more protection in the Yankees line up no matter where he he than Ohtani did, even the few game that Upton hit behind him. Nice theory, but it doesn't hold water.

A better theory is that Ohtani batted in 34 of the Angels first 85 games and 70 of their last 77 games. So when he became an every day player, he got in a rhythm and produced better numbers. The bottom line is that he was a much better hitter over the whole season, even though he was a part time hitter for more than half of the season.

As far as 2016 AL ROY, Fulmer 5.2 WAR Sanchez 3.0 WAR. You may not like it, but we are in the era of advanced stats and voters are using them when voting for awards.

Last edited by rats60; 11-13-2018 at 12:54 PM.
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  #13  
Old 11-13-2018, 01:19 PM
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I knew Ohtani was going to win ROY as soon as the talking heads started talking about combining his pitching and hitting WAR.

I mean Andujar had more doubles then Ohtani had total extra base hits.

Lack of walks was the biggest thing that hurt Andujar on his overall hitting metrics compared to Ohtani.

Andujar got absolutely throttled by his defensive WAR unfortunately. Who knew how much things had changed. Back in 1978 Butch Hobson committed 43 errors and held an .899 FP and he got docked -1.00 on his defensive WAR.

Andujar commits 15 errors with a .948 FP and he gets docked -2.2.

Ohtani got docked 0 WAR points for playing absolutely no defense. I guess no defense is better then below average defense.

I question how valuable a two way star is, when you have to find somebody to replace him in the lineup 60 games a year due to injuries, limitations on his schedule, lack of an actual position, and an inevitable Tommy John surgery.

He's a hell of a talent, but having to constantly construct your team baseball strategy around his availability seems pretty silly to me.

Ultimately however, ROY really doesn't mean a whole lot. It's just a title. Hell, Walt Weiss won the award once upon a time, simply on his defense. Barring injuries, Gleyber Torres likely becomes the most valuable player of the 3 guys in the AL running this year.
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  #14  
Old 11-13-2018, 02:07 PM
savedfrommyspokes savedfrommyspokes is offline
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Originally Posted by rats60 View Post
Ohtani's best month was August when Trout was on the DL most of the month. They were in the line up together for only the last 7 games of the month. Justin Upton, a .257 hitter with an OPS+ 122 wasn't providing protection for him either as Ohtani hit behind him the whole month of August. Hit hit ahead of Trout once all season. When he started hitting ahead of Upton some in September, his stats were slightly worse.



These are the OPS+ of the other hitters in the Angels every day line up, 71, 92, 95, 109, 62, 80. Their main reserves were all below 100. The Angels line up was pretty much garbage outside of Trout and Upton. Ohtani wasn't getting better pitches because of where he hit. Gregorious had an OPS+ of 120. 5 of the other 8 Yankees regulars had an OPS+ of 118 or above and 3 reserves were above 100. Andujar had much more protection in the Yankees line up no matter where he he than Ohtani did, even the few game that Upton hit behind him. Nice theory, but it doesn't hold water.

A better theory is that Ohtani batted in 34 of the Angels first 85 games and 70 of their last 77 games. So when he became an every day player, he got in a rhythm and produced better numbers. The bottom line is that he was a much better hitter over the whole season, even though he was a part time hitter for more than half of the season.

As far as 2016 AL ROY, Fulmer 5.2 WAR Sanchez 3.0 WAR. You may not like it, but we are in the era of advanced stats and voters are using them when voting for awards.
So using WAR as a comparison for the 2016 results is okay but not in the 2018 comparison because it doesn't help with the explanation? Okay. Since Ohtani won as a DH (not a pitcher), the voters in 2018 didn't exactly use the advanced stats (his offensive WAR).

Everyone is entitled to their own theory about why Ohtani started hitting(again) in August.... Through June he was batting .289, then slumped in July before getting back on track in Aug-Sept. Why does any rookie start off hitting well then begin to slump? ....pitchers didn't start off with sufficient scouting for Ohtani (in spring training he didn't hit well). Once there is sufficient scouting, the pitchers/fielders make their adjustments. From there is up to the batter to adjust again and/or the manager to get make line-up adjustments. If the theory is he got hot in August because of regular playing time, that is not exactly true as he played sporadically starting at DH in only 14 games and appeared as PH in 10.


I'll stick with he saw better pitches later in the season than what he saw in July (post pitcher adjustments) because of moving up in the line-up and then having a 30 HR guy batting behind him later .


Andujar had Didi for less than a month last season batting behind him. For a few weeks he had Torres behind him before Torres got hot and subsequently moved up in the order. Most of the season he had players like Tyler Austin, Torreyes, Romine, Bird, Etc batting behind him. Not exactly the league's strongest batters.

Either way, IMO there is a bias for southern CA teams with voting for these awards. If Ohtani stays in the ML as a batter, I believe he will have a great career.
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  #15  
Old 11-13-2018, 03:13 PM
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The intangibles were massively in Ohtani's favor, even if you question the stats, and those weren't so clearly against him that you can really take issue with the vote IMO.
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  #16  
Old 11-13-2018, 03:56 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by savedfrommyspokes View Post
Through late July(or about half his season), Ohtani typically batted 6th or higher in the order and was hitting in the .250s. with 9 HRs. Over the last 2 months of the season he he moved up in the batting ahead sometimes ahead of Trout but in front of Upton and his batting took off as he was seeing much better pitching batting 3rd or 4th in the order than 6th.

In the majority of Yankeee games this season, Andujar batted most typically 6-8th in the line up with no one hitting behind him. Late in the season (Sept) with Judge out, he batted 4th with Didi behind him.....Didi was the best hitter to hit behind him all season.

So if these two player's line-ups were considered when voting, Ohtani benefitted much more from his line-up than did Andujar.


At least the writers got the NL ROY correct.

...and at least you got that right! LOL (imo)
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  #17  
Old 11-13-2018, 04:34 PM
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...and at least you got that right! LOL (imo)
Soto and Acuna were very close I thought.
Look just how close.
https://herosports.com/mlb/player-co...s-ronald-acuna
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Last edited by Peter_Spaeth; 11-13-2018 at 04:35 PM.
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  #18  
Old 11-13-2018, 05:10 PM
savedfrommyspokes savedfrommyspokes is offline
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IMO, both Acuna and Ohtani were the pre-season favorites to win this award. They both clearly benefited from the plethora of hype they began receiving back in spring training.


Soto (once finally called up a month or so after Acuna) had significant hype surrounding him as did Gleyber Torres. In July, my bet on AL ROY would have been Torres after coming off the DL and being selected for the AS game following his torrid start.

Andujar, who received far less hype than the other four, at the start of the season was 3rd on the NYY depth chart at 3rd base. So with little to no hype most of the season he came out of no where and put up a great season.

I get that Andujar received no where near the same hype as the others and he didn't have an intriguing story so lacking in both intangibles clearly worked against him in regards to winning the ROY, but he had a great rookie season ....
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  #19  
Old 11-13-2018, 05:38 PM
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Andujar deserved the award for the same reason people were saying Beltre was a HOFer before he got to 3,000: there aren't a whole lot of third basemen who can hit. If being a power hitting third basemen can get you into the HOF, it should win you the ROY too. Power hitting DH's are a dime a dozen. Who cares if they pitched 50 innings.

Andujar's oWAR was 4.6. Ohtani's was only 2.7. Andujar was a superior hitter. His fielding would be the only knock but then again Ohtani wasn't playing the field either.

Last edited by packs; 11-13-2018 at 05:42 PM.
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  #20  
Old 11-13-2018, 05:41 PM
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Originally Posted by savedfrommyspokes View Post
So using WAR as a comparison for the 2016 results is okay but not in the 2018 comparison because it doesn't help with the explanation? Okay. Since Ohtani won as a DH (not a pitcher), the voters in 2018 didn't exactly use the advanced stats (his offensive WAR).
I am not sure how you came up with this. The voters did use WAR in 2018. Ohtani 3.9 WAR Andujar 2.2 WAR. Lol at Yankees fans complaining about bias.
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