State Of The Hobby

[LincolnVT]

I grew up in a political family, worked on several campaigns and got my degree in Political Science...I'm a news junkie as well. That said, what are people's thought on the State Of The Hobby? Where have we been, where are we now and where are we going in the baseball collecting arena...

[Peter_Spaeth]

Judging by recent prices, to infinity and beyond.

[Leon]

There are apparently a lot of investors in the hobby.

[Blunder19]

Prices have been strong as of late.. and i believe the trend will continue upwards over the next few years.. we will look back on the 2019 prices and wish we bought more at these current prices.

[pitchernut]

With the current prices not much chance for the young ones to get involved with pre 1950 for sure.

[joshleland]

Originally Posted by pitchernut

With the current prices not much chance for the young ones to get involved with pre 1950 for sure.

Not necessarily true. You can buy low grade T206's for $10-20
And similarly other issues in low grade. Besides on entry level not sure if the kids want to collect vintage. They are identifying more with Brady and Jordan than Anson and Kelly. Change is a bitch.

[Touch'EmAll]

The biggest names in the big sets are doing great - especially with nice centering and eye appeal. The biggest names in the more minor sets I wish would catch on more, but they have gone up a little. And the biggest names in the odd sets don't seem to be appreciating - maybe I am wrong - Colgan's, Silks, Pins, Domino Disc's, etc. In post war, now even PSA 7's in big names are shooting up and are getting harder to just find with near perfect centering. My son tells me the kids are not so much interested in baseball, but rather basketball cards. But cards are cards and when they grow up I have a hunch they will gravitate to the nice stuff we all appreciate.

[Harliduck]

From a hack post war hobby guy...two years ago I sold all my Topps sets from 1954-1967 and fed my classic car collection...missed cards terribly, and am now in rebuilding mode...I have seen a sharp increase in the two years I was out. From now paying tax on Ebay, to comparing my old records to what I am paying now it's easily 15-20% for EX to EXMT raw cards. Great if I had my old sets, costly now that I am re-buying...but LOTS of fun. I just love the hunt...

Hobby seems more than healthy currently...and I certainly feel like I have more competition for key cards that I've ever had...

[todeen]

Where are we going? Nothing can go up forever. There will be a correction of inflated prices with the next economic turn, just like the hobby crashed in 2008. Die hards will be happy with deflated prices that allow them to complete sets more easily, investors will be upset and the hobby will take ten years to recover again.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G930A using Tapatalk

[Stampsfan]

Originally Posted by todeen

Where are we going? Nothing can go up forever. There will be a correction of inflated prices with the next economic turn, just like the hobby crashed in 2008. Die hards will be happy with deflated prices that allow them to complete sets more easily, investors will be upset and the hobby will take ten years to recover again.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G930A using Tapatalk

Not so sure. Not everyone has the guts to purchase stocks when they are deflated, but they seem to pop back up (remember Christmas Eve, 2018). If prices fall off, would people have the guts to buy back in?

[Dpeck100]

Originally Posted by Stampsfan

Not so sure. Not everyone has the guts to purchase stocks when they are deflated, but they seem to pop back up (remember Christmas Eve, 2018). If prices fall off, would people have the guts to buy back in?

This is an excellent point. I am in financial services and many advisors had been telling clients wait for the pullback to deploy cash and when the violent move lower took place they sat on their hands or the clients said lets wait and see what happens.

The other big issue with stocks is the daily volatility can shake you out very easily. With cards at least there is a longer selling cycle generally so in my view they are easier to hold and this is one of the appeals from an investment standpoint.

The hobby is very healthy. When it takes as long as it does to get your cards back from third party graders it isn't because they don't want to get them back to you quickly it is because there are so many being sent in.

I was just having a brief discussion last night with a neighbor about the rate of return that can be achieved in cards and it is astonishing. You don't have to have a lot of money to at least see a positive return on the funds you spend and you get the benefit of owning the hard asset. Buying a card for $20 and selling it for $50 isn't going to change anyone's life but find me another area where the investment minimums are so low and the percentage returns can be so outsized. I don't know of one.

[SAllen2556]

Originally Posted by Dpeck100

I was just having a brief discussion last night with a neighbor about the rate of return that can be achieved in cards and it is astonishing. You don't have to have a lot of money to at least see a positive return on the funds you spend and you get the benefit of owning the hard asset. Buying a card for $20 and selling it for $50 isn't going to change anyone's life but find me another area where the investment minimums are so low and the percentage returns can be so outsized. I don't know of one.

Doesn't "astonishing" make you nervous? Doesn't this feel a lot like the early 90's when everyone was buying cards and card shops were everywhere and everyone thought you could pay for your kids' college with cards?

Today we have a gazillion online auction houses. Ebay prices continue to only go up. People are entering the hobby only for the investment.

I dunno. On the one hand I love seeing prices increase, but right now seems like a great to sell - not buy.

[bbcard1]

It may be a stretch, but when you compare the card market to the art market it's pretty mild.

[Dpeck100]

Originally Posted by SAllen2556

Doesn't "astonishing" make you nervous? Doesn't this feel a lot like the early 90's when everyone was buying cards and card shops were everywhere and everyone thought you could pay for your kids' college with cards?

Today we have a gazillion online auction houses. Ebay prices continue to only go up. People are entering the hobby only for the investment.

I dunno. On the one hand I love seeing prices increase, but right now seems like a great to sell - not buy.

The card market is just like the stock market. There are always cards moving in every direction and so there may certainly be areas that are overheated but I don't believe there is going to be a melt down in cards and you see it daily on various forums where people are coming back to the hobby.

When I use the term astonishing returns that has been my experience. In the financial world a 6% rate of return with limited volatility is considered great. I just sold a card on EBAY a week ago for over three times what I paid for it a maybe two months earlier. It has no material impact on my life but a 207% return in a few months is an astonishing one.

When you actively submit cards to third party graders is where the huge percentages can occur. Last week a Jack Brisco from the 1982 Wrestling All Stars Series A sold for $660 and is a Pop 3. I own the 10 and 2 of the 9's. One of the 9's I self subbed and paid $2 for the card and with grading I am in at lets say $9. That is over a 73 fold increase. It is incredible.

The math certainly suggests on some cards that the results will be different buying at current prices but just like in the stock market there are loads of instances where someone does great buying high and selling even higher.

I just don't think the doom and gloom is going to play out with cards. Time will tell.

[AGuinness]

Originally Posted by Dpeck100

Buying a card for $20 and selling it for $50 isn't going to change anyone's life but find me another area where the investment minimums are so low and the percentage returns can be so outsized. I don't know of one.

I flip cards at COMC and have been pretty successful at doing this, sometimes for not as great a profit, occasionally better and with a hit-and-miss sprinkled in, too. I'm not a big player there or in the hobby in general, but flipping at COMC in addition to my other hobby ventures makes for a diverse and fun hobby.
I think COMC's rise over the past 10 years, in particular, is a strong point for the health of the hobby (in general). The site's foundation is in buying and selling of lower valued cards and in set builders, and the company has grown tremendously. It's now one of the bigger sellers on eBay and elsewhere, I believe.
And here's a hair-brained theory on the state of the hobby, in general, and recent price increases...
Access to the hobby has increased dramatically over the past 10-20 years. eBay is now readily available on most everyone's phone, major auction houses offer numerous auctions every year and people can participate from anywhere in the world, and collectors have the ability to purchase and learn about the hobby at a level that is unprecedented. So, in terms of the demand side, it is easier than ever for a seller to access a greater population of the people who want a card. With the greater access to the demand side, prices have gone up - but perhaps this isn't a bubble for prices, perhaps this is actually more of an accurate representation of true price when it comes to supply and demand.
In this way, despite some high profile scams recently (forged T206s, trimmed cards in high-graded slabs, shilling, etc.), perhaps the state of the hobby is actually as healthy as ever.

[clydepepper]

I'm still having fun, but I use far more resources before making purchases.

[Leon]

Good analysis. I remember about 20 yrs ago when I first started ebay. I knew it was a game changer. I remember putting quite a bit of savings into it, as such. It worked out fairly well back then. Just pick the right cards and don't sell short. And then try to time the stock market.

Originally Posted by AGuinness

I flip cards at COMC and have been pretty successful at doing this, sometimes for not as great a profit, occasionally better and with a hit-and-miss sprinkled in, too. I'm not a big player there or in the hobby in general, but flipping at COMC in addition to my other hobby ventures makes for a diverse and fun hobby.
I think COMC's rise over the past 10 years, in particular, is a strong point for the health of the hobby (in general). The site's foundation is in buying and selling of lower valued cards and in set builders, and the company has grown tremendously. It's now one of the bigger sellers on eBay and elsewhere, I believe.
And here's a hair-brained theory on the state of the hobby, in general, and recent price increases...
Access to the hobby has increased dramatically over the past 10-20 years. eBay is now readily available on most everyone's phone, major auction houses offer numerous auctions every year and people can participate from anywhere in the world, and collectors have the ability to purchase and learn about the hobby at a level that is unprecedented. So, in terms of the demand side, it is easier than ever for a seller to access a greater population of the people who want a card. With the greater access to the demand side, prices have gone up - but perhaps this isn't a bubble for prices, perhaps this is actually more of an accurate representation of true price when it comes to supply and demand.
In this way, despite some high profile scams recently (forged T206s, trimmed cards in high-graded slabs, shilling, etc.), perhaps the state of the hobby is actually as healthy as ever.

[NYYFan63]

Originally Posted by AGuinness

I flip cards at COMC and have been pretty successful at doing this, sometimes for not as great a profit, occasionally better and with a hit-and-miss sprinkled in, too. I'm not a big player there or in the hobby in general, but flipping at COMC in addition to my other hobby ventures makes for a diverse and fun hobby.
I think COMC's rise over the past 10 years, in particular, is a strong point for the health of the hobby (in general). The site's foundation is in buying and selling of lower valued cards and in set builders, and the company has grown tremendously. It's now one of the bigger sellers on eBay and elsewhere, I believe.
And here's a hair-brained theory on the state of the hobby, in general, and recent price increases...
Access to the hobby has increased dramatically over the past 10-20 years. eBay is now readily available on most everyone's phone, major auction houses offer numerous auctions every year and people can participate from anywhere in the world, and collectors have the ability to purchase and learn about the hobby at a level that is unprecedented. So, in terms of the demand side, it is easier than ever for a seller to access a greater population of the people who want a card. With the greater access to the demand side, prices have gone up - but perhaps this isn't a bubble for prices, perhaps this is actually more of an accurate representation of true price when it comes to supply and demand.
In this way, despite some high profile scams recently (forged T206s, trimmed cards in high-graded slabs, shilling, etc.), perhaps the state of the hobby is actually as healthy as ever.

This is a great point. With access to ebay from a smart phone, the demand side has probably increased over the years.

You know what happens when demand exceeds supply...

[Republicaninmass]

Preaching to the choir Pete. The auction cards do seem to be selling as the ones I am going after with low bids, I'm not winning. Though I'm notoriously cheap on anything but signed 52s

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

[Dpeck100]

I have been actively following card prices from late 2009 of all genres and I think the hobby has never been more healthy during that time frame. It is getting stronger not weaker. We can all debate prices and why one card is worth X and another is worth Y and each might be over valued and so on but the number of active participants is rising and that is what is most important to the health of the hobby.

Look at the cards like Pokemon and Magic The Gathering. This segment has been absolutely on fire for years and single handily disrupted the third party grading business. I get it very few on here care for this segment but there are people out there that do and they are card collectors. Getting more people to actively participate in the hobby of trading card collecting is critical. There are so many cards that have a very limited number available and all it takes is a few more market participants and prices rise. If you have this kind of scenario across numerous segments it is a tremendous positive.

One of the things that I suggested would happen with wrestling cards is we would eventually get a lot of cross over buyers. People who might not want to dive in head first but wouldn't mind owning some cards. Perhaps of the biggest stars or someone they just really liked. This is what happens when you get more collectors interested in cards. They run out of stuff to buy or see something that catches their eye and buy cards from other genres making the fire spread even further.

The fact that there is almost turn away business at third party graders is arguably the best sign. It shows cards from so many sets are getting graded and there is an expectation that those cards can be either sold or kept and with that number growing there is no way to look at the market in an overall negative manner.

Simply looking at the prices of the most popular cards and using them to gauge the market is really not the best way to determine the health. There was a very serious run up and then collapse of some cards in the hobby but many of those are firming and so this is no longer a negative but what is more important is seeing things like unopened explode. Signed rookie cards go for crazy money. Many registry sets get chased. Many dealers trying to fill those cards. Message board activity staying high. Facebook groups popping up. All of this is showing a bigger audience and to me that is the best sign of health and confirms the hobby is very strong.

[Peter_Spaeth]

David, I like that you made all those points without using the "I" word (invest lol).

[Dpeck100]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

David, I like that you made all those points without using the "I" word (invest lol).

The investment element doesn't bother me.

I was an investor at 6 in 1985 Topps and Fleer. We all cared about the values.

A Dwight Gooden card said I am rich. LOL

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Dpeck100

The investment element doesn't bother me.

I was an investor at 6 in 1985 Topps and Fleer. We all cared about the values.

A Dwight Gooden card said I am rich. LOL

I think most of us care about values, but I still cringe at threads asking what cards are the best investments blah blah, and at some of the marketing that goes on.

[Goudey77]

Good write up David. I have also seen the potential crossover between genre's. I always say get kids started on Pokemon. I asked my niece recently what she loved about opening packs, her response..."its just satisfying".

The hobby will always evolve. It's in our nature to collect.