Health of Asset Class - Over/Under 1955 Topps Koufax PSA 9

[ullmandds]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

I can’t believe that these numbers are disappointing. What’re we, nuts? I’ll take two vg cards and a condo in Kona instead.

But I digress.

Is there still a stink on Goldin? Perhaps there are players who don’t want to bid with him?

agreed!

[raulus]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

I can’t believe that these numbers are disappointing. What’re we, nuts? I’ll take two vg cards and a condo in Kona instead.

I mean, if we're questioning our own sanity, there's probably a good reason.

And obviously $288k is only disappointing in the context that the last fistful went for $360-$400k. In isolation, getting that much bread for a single piece is certainly a nice haul.

[Rhotchkiss]

Adam, I myself am wondering whether the auction house has anything to do with the relatively/comparatively weak result. Of the 5 prior sales that range from $369k - $396k, two were REA and two Heritage, with the fifth being the oldest, on 5/23/21, in Goldin for $369k.

Personally, I have no issue with Ken or his AH and I have bought a number of stuff from his auction house when it was a smaller outfit. However, I don't think I have bought anything from Goldin since they were acquired by PSA, and, at this point, I dont even really follow their auctions. To me, Goldin, like PWCC, has become an almost purely modern venue and I dont feel like wading through pages of RPAs looking for a singular pre-war needle in the haystack. Plus, like PWCC, I am not a fan of the auction interface, which I find difficult to use and not intuitive. I am not a bidder on a 1955 Koufax PSA 9, regardless of whether its in Goldin or REA, but perhaps others did not notice/partake in the auction for similar reasons stated above.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

Adam, I myself am wondering whether the auction house has anything to do with the relatively/comparatively weak result. Of the 5 prior sales that range from $369k - $396k, two were REA and two Heritage, with the fifth being the oldest, on 5/23/21, in Goldin for $369k.

Personally, I have no issue with Ken or his AH and I have bought a number of stuff from his auction house when it was a smaller outfit. However, I don't think I have bought anything from Goldin since they were acquired by PSA, and, at this point, I dont even really follow their auctions. To me, Goldin, like PWCC, has become an almost purely modern venue and I dont feel like wading through pages of RPAs looking for a singular pre-war needle in the haystack. Plus, like PWCC, I am not a fan of the auction interface, which I find difficult to use and not intuitive. I am not a bidder on a 1955 Koufax PSA 9, regardless of whether its in Goldin or REA, but perhaps others did not notice/partake in the auction for similar reasons stated above.

It's an interesting concept. Just pondering a little bit myself, let's say there was a high grade mainline piece for a major HOFer that I was coveting, and had a war chest lying around to chase it. Along it comes in auction, and there's a chance to pick it up for 20% off the last sale.

I'm not convinced that I'd let a clunky interface or the need to do a little more homework to find it get in my way. If anything, I might be inclined to lean into those as a competitive advantage, especially if it prevents the competition from bidding as heavily, or even finding the auction.

And I think the market has long ago given us enough signals that for 99.999% of collectors, we're not about to let our moral code stand in the way of picking up high quality stuff, particularly at a good deal.

All of which is a long way of saying that I have a hard time believing those were the likely answer. I tend to be more of a believer that there was probably one more potential bidder out there who decided to not go nuts this time. He's feeling tapped out, maybe his dog just died, or he lost a bundle on some lame SPAC investment, had a mild heart attack, or his wife just filed for divorce and is suing for the collection and the house. Or maybe he just had a conflict that night with the Met Gala. For whatever reason, he dropped out of the bidding earlier, and therefore the price pooped out a few bids earlier than the last handful of auctions.

Whenever we talk about our moral code and its potential influence on certain auction houses, it brings to mind a joke from the economist joke book, which I've told here before, but will recount again, because it seems apropos in light of our sometimes flexible moral code. Apologies that it's a little salty, but the saltiness helps to convey the message.

An economist walks up to a woman and asks if she would sleep with him for $1 million.

She responds that she supposes that she would.

Whereupon the economist asks if she would sleep with him for $100.

To which she retorts, "What kind of a woman do you think I am?"

The economist wryly observes, "Madam, we have already established that. Now we are just negotiating on price."

[Republicaninmass]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

I can’t believe that these numbers are disappointing. What’re we, nuts? I’ll take two vg cards and a condo in Kona instead.

Exactly, at some point the common man has to say "I can sell and buy what????" Although the people buying may have a condo or two in Kona

[jsfriedm]

As far as the really high end, I don't think this was an isolated incident. In Heritage's August auction, they had a 1952 Topps Mantle SGC 9 for which they had an estimate of $6 million+. They started the bidding at 2 mil, and three days before closing it had only reached 2.35, when they posted a 4.5 million reserve. Half an hour before the end of the auction they suddenly reduced the reserve to 3.75 and got one bid, so they could say it sold, for 4.5 million. In the same auction, they had a 1933 Goudey Ruth 144 PSA 8.5 with an estimated value of 1.5 mil+ that barely made it to 1 million. I do think there are signs of softness at the high end.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by jsfriedm

As far as the really high end, I don't think this was an isolated incident. In Heritage's August auction, they had a 1952 Topps Mantle SGC 9 for which they had an estimate of $6 million+. They started the bidding at 2 mil, and three days before closing it had only reached 2.35, when they posted a 4.5 million reserve. Half an hour before the end of the auction they suddenly reduced the reserve to 3.75 and got one bid, so they could say it sold, for 4.5 million. In the same auction, they had a 1933 Goudey Ruth 144 PSA 8.5 with an estimated value of 1.5 mil+ that barely made it to 1 million. I do think there are signs of softness at the high end.

Those are some fun data points.

I think for those of us that are chasing a lot of high end stuff, there's sometimes a bit of confirmation bias. We're chasing some nice stuff down (even just tracking it for market research purposes), and it always seems to sell for a crazy price. We see a few other pieces that go to the moon, and our lazy minds just assume that everything at the top end is going for all-time highs. If we see something that sells for less than the last few comps, we discount it as an aberration.

Obviously the data points you highlighted help to paint a more nuanced picture.

[Rhotchkiss]

I agree the AH likely had little to do with the pricing. I also think the Mantle and Ruth examples above indicate that there is some softening for high-end commodity cards, which I think makes sense. I also think it may something to do with the fact that this was the 5th PSA 9 to trade in two years, 3 of which have sold in the last 6 months, adding validity to the theory that the "other bidder" wasn't there on this one to push the price to nearly $400k. Or perhaps that extra 1-2 bidders were not there because its much more attractive to have cash like that liquid, earning 5%, than in cardboard that may be sitting at top-of-the-market values.

Personally, I think its all of the above, but mainly I think we are seeing a sensible repricing on commodity-cards, which I note, tend to still be well above where things were before the pandemic (thus Adam's point).

[skelly423]

Deleted

[puckpaul]

Originally Posted by raulus

It's an interesting concept. Just pondering a little bit myself, let's say there was a high grade mainline piece for a major HOFer that I was coveting, and had a war chest lying around to chase it. Along it comes in auction, and there's a chance to pick it up for 20% off the last sale.

I'm not convinced that I'd let a clunky interface or the need to do a little more homework to find it get in my way. If anything, I might be inclined to lean into those as a competitive advantage, especially if it prevents the competition from bidding as heavily, or even finding the auction.

And I think the market has long ago given us enough signals that for 99.999% of collectors, we're not about to let our moral code stand in the way of picking up high quality stuff, particularly at a good deal.

All of which is a long way of saying that I have a hard time believing those were the likely answer. I tend to be more of a believer that there was probably one more potential bidder out there who decided to not go nuts this time. He's feeling tapped out, maybe his dog just died, or he lost a bundle on some lame SPAC investment, had a mild heart attack, or his wife just filed for divorce and is suing for the collection and the house. Or maybe he just had a conflict that night with the Met Gala. For whatever reason, he dropped out of the bidding earlier, and therefore the price pooped out a few bids earlier than the last handful of auctions.

Whenever we talk about our moral code and its potential influence on certain auction houses, it brings to mind a joke from the economist joke book, which I've told here before, but will recount again, because it seems apropos in light of our sometimes flexible moral code. Apologies that it's a little salty, but the saltiness helps to convey the message.

An economist walks up to a woman and asks if she would sleep with him for $1 million.

She responds that she supposes that she would.

Whereupon the economist asks if she would sleep with him for $100.

To which she retorts, "What kind of a woman do you think I am?"

The economist wryly observes, "Madam, we have already established that. Now we are just negotiating on price."

I disagree, if you dont like or trust an auction house, and you would spend that kind of money on a Koufax rookie i think it’s very plausible that you would look elsewhere. It’s not like it’s that scarce a card.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by puckpaul

I disagree, if you dont like or trust an auction house, and you would spend that kind of money on a Koufax rookie i think it’s very plausible that you would look elsewhere. It’s not like it’s that scarce a card.

What if you could get it for 20% off?

Or 50% off?

Is there no discount at which you would decide you’re ready to buy?

I suspect most of the group has their price at which they would bite.

[Lorewalker]

Not sure we will ever know why this one sold for less but it might be nothing more than everyone who could afford to pay more than 288K had no interest in adding a 55 Koufax to their collection. Might be a case were a straight for sale would have maintained the previous price point. Still a good price overall just not great news to those who recently paid more but this is what happens when you have skin in the game. I rather have a 55 Koufax 9 at 460 than an 86 Jordan 10 at 700.

Whenever I reflect on our hobby and try to figure out what something is worth the overly obvious phrase, it is worth what someone is willing to pay for it, pops into my head.

One thing we do know is that there are far more buyers for a 55 Koufax PSA 5 than there are a 55 Koufax PSA 9.

[Exhibitman]

I've always maintained that for postwar mainstream cards, condition rarity is a risky bet, especially where the numbers are so large that only 0.01% of collectors are the market.

[puckpaul]

Originally Posted by raulus

What if you could get it for 20% off?

Or 50% off?

Is there no discount at which you would decide you’re ready to buy?

I suspect most of the group has their price at which they would bite.

Maybe…But i don’t scour pwcc for bargains, i just dont participate there. I have never trusted certain Auction houses mentioned, so, no, it’s not worth my time to monitor their auctions. All you need are a few participants to opt out and prices can disappoint.

[Touch'EmAll]

Who might be in the market for such a spendy card ? Not many to begin with, then consider 5 other sales in the last 3 years. Now we have less than not many who are honestly interested in shelling out big $ for such a card. Auction prices only go big when there are bidders who really want the item.

I followed the recent Memory Lane auction that had quite a few Hank Aaron's in PSA 8. The ending prices did seem a bit low all around - so yes, perhaps a softening of the post-war vintage market. Although most were not near perfectly centered, could have something to do with it.

Finally, the centering on the '55 Koufax - left/right ok, but top/bottom was 40/60 ish. More and more with post-war vintage the big prices now only come with near perfect centering. And with such an iconic card as the Koufax rookie, most I bet would want better than 40/60 to seriously consider shelling out for a PSA 9.

Now the prices this year for nice Ruth, Cobb & Wagner have been strong. They are more scarce than anything post-war vintage. In fact, with all the auctions already this year, hard to consider even the blue chip post-war cards scarce - I see so many continually offered. For instance, there have been many '54 Aaron's offered for sale/auction this year - there is a lot out there, more than I thought a few years ago.

Go Pre-War big names !

[Leon]

Interesting take. Centering has continued to gather steam as a very important price determinant.

Originally Posted by Touch'EmAll

Who might be in the market for such a spendy card ? Not many to begin with, then consider 5 other sales in the last 3 years. Now we have less than not many who are honestly interested in shelling out big $ for such a card. Auction prices only go big when there are bidders who really want the item.

I followed the recent Memory Lane auction that had quite a few Hank Aaron's in PSA 8. The ending prices did seem a bit low all around - so yes, perhaps a softening of the post-war vintage market. Although most were not near perfectly centered, could have something to do with it.

Finally, the centering on the '55 Koufax - left/right ok, but top/bottom was 40/60 ish. More and more with post-war vintage the big prices now only come with near perfect centering. And with such an iconic card as the Koufax rookie, most I bet would want better than 40/60 to seriously consider shelling out for a PSA 9.

Now the prices this year for nice Ruth, Cobb & Wagner have been strong. They are more scarce than anything post-war vintage. In fact, with all the auctions already this year, hard to consider even the blue chip post-war cards scarce - I see so many continually offered. For instance, there have been many '54 Aaron's offered for sale/auction this year - there is a lot out there, more than I thought a few years ago.

Go Pre-War big names !

[etsmith]

I also think part of the Goldin pricing was due to the actual condition of the card, as someone else pointed out the card appears like it may have some issues.