Black Swamp Find?

[Leon]

Originally Posted by msohn

I was stunned to see so many high grade Cobbs in that find. (But it makes sense, when I think about how many high grade Roger Clemens cards I saved in the 80s - the collector saved the best!).

I agree with your view that the price appreciation potential of the E98 Cobb is limited, but I think that this card could still command $25,000+ for all. Consider the 1915 Cracker Jack card, which is reported to have a population of 10 for PSA 8, a pop of 2 at 8.5 and a pop 1 at 9. The PSA 8s are likely able to get $20-25,000 despite having 3 cards in higher grade.

Nice analysis and you absolutely could be right on the prices. We will know eventually. Maybe the Cobbs go for way more than first imagined. 50K each?, 35k each?, Who knows until they are sold. happy collecting

[msohn]

Originally Posted by Leon

Nice analysis and you absolutely could be right on the prices. We will know eventually. Maybe the Cobbs go for way more than first imagined. 50K each?, 35k each?, Who knows until they are sold. happy collecting

As with everything, there is definitely more than art than science to determining value. But you are right - we will all know soon.

If the 1915 Cracker Jacks are a good gauge for what they could be worth, then you have to think that the T206 Cobb varieties have good room to run.

[barrysloate]

The history of collecting is filled with stories of famous hoards, most prominently in the field of numismatics. Pick up a copy of the Red Book and there are pages recounting enormous hoards, often with thousands of rare coins found in one place. And all of them end the same way: the hobby absorbs all the material, and over time a stable price structure is achieved.

The same will happen with this find. While it is of course mind boggling in scope, all the cards will eventually find their way into collections and all will trade at some reasonably high value. Maybe an E98 Cobb will be a whole lot cheaper than an E93 Cobb, but it will still be valuable and there will still be a market for it. But you need patience. If you buy them you have to be prepared to put them away for a few years. As I said earlier, the dealers who buy these just to flip them the next day will have their hands full. This is a long term project.

[Matt]

Originally Posted by msohn

If the 1915 Cracker Jacks are a good gauge for what they could be worth, then you have to think that the T206 Cobb varieties have good room to run.

Historically, this issue isn't anywhere near as popular as the cracker jacks, so the demand is not close.

[Matt]

"Heritage Auctions plans to sell most of the Ohio cards over the next two of three years through auctions and private sales so that it doesn't flood the market. In all, they could bring $2 million or $3 million, Ivy said."

This is interesting; with the entirety of the find being well publicized, how much impact will releasing them over multiple years really have? Knowing there are another 20 of a card coming will certainly depress prices, even of the first ones offered, though spacing them out will allow certain folks to reload their wallet over time.

[WhenItWasAHobby]

Karl Kissner poses for a photo in front of the door to an attic in his grandfather's old home
on Tuesday, July 10, 2012, where he and a cousin found a collection of century-old baseball
cards in Defiance, Ohio. The cards are from an extremely rare series issued around 1910 and
the best of the bunch — 37 cards — are expected to bring a total of $500,000 when
they are sold at auction in August during the National Sports Collectors Convention in
Baltimore. There are about 700 cards in all that could be worth up to $3 million, experts say.
Photo: John Seewer / AP

[ullmandds]

I'm not sure I understand the comparison to Cracker Jack...or the below logic?


"If the 1915 Cracker Jacks are a good gauge for what they could be worth, then you have to think that the T206 Cobb varieties have good room to run."

[autograf]

I think there's 20+ cousins that all lay claim to the hoard, so about $150K per person. Still a nice windfall when you weren't expecting it! I'd keep my 35 cards if it were me though!

[msohn]

Originally Posted by ullmandds

I'm not sure I understand the comparison to Cracker Jack...or the below logic?


"If the 1915 Cracker Jacks are a good gauge for what they could be worth, then you have to think that the T206 Cobb varieties have good room to run."

I agree - that was poorly written. I am using a relative value approach.

If this Black Swamp Find had just a single E98 Ty Cobb that graded PSA 9, it would probably be worth >$200,000. In this case, this magnificent find produced a mind boggling 16 copies earning a PSA 9 grade. On the one hand, you have one of the earliest and rarest (until now) and finest examples of a Ty Cobb. On the other hand, there are now 16 of these beauties, not just one or two.

Can the market absorb 16 of these cards? I think so. As a comparison, I looked at the 1915 Cracker Jack set, where PSA has graded 8 Ty Cobb cards in PSA 8, 2 in PSA 8.5 and 1 in PSA 9. Despite having a population of 8 copies in PSA 8, this Cobb should be able to command $20,000 to $25,000 if offered for sale (SMR value = $23,000).

So given the significant of the E98 card, and its pristine condition, my bet would be that Heritage could release these cards into the market at $25,000. However, the upside to this card is clearly capped, at what level, I don't know.